12-12-2012, 04:43 AM #1
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Found this interesting news today:
Facebook data suggests Microsoft has sold 4.2 million Windows Phone devices since October | WinSource
"Microsoft has been pretty tight-lipped about the sales of Windows Phone 8 so far, but one of their closest partners could betray their sales numbers for them. Nearly 627,000 monthly active users of the built-in Facebook app have joined the ecosystem since October 1st. To put that into perspective, less than 150,000 were added by the 15th of December of last year.
The Next Web discovered that a ratio of around 6.7 handsets were sold per active user that uses the Windows Phone Facebook application. Accounting for this, this puts Windows Phone at having sold some 4.2 million handsets since the start of the quarter this year. If this is the case, then no wonder Nokia and HTC are sitting pretty, especially if theyre moving phones equally well.
If these numbers continue at this rate, we could be seeing a 10 million plus quarter for Windows Phone."
(I hope this was not posted by someone else. If so: Am really sorry :) please remove my thread in that case.)
- 12-15-2012, 02:06 PM #5
People are getting a bit sick of Apple corruptness in my opinion, charging 500 for a phone that they make for 80, and shoving expensive, awful and false advertising down Joe publics throat. Microsoft as it seam is on the rise again. Windows 8 WILL catch on, we said the same thing with windows 7 and look how that turned out, same thing for windows phone.
- 12-15-2012, 04:44 PM #6
That's only half the story, as WP devices are now also being sold in China and those devices don't register on Facebook.
Although 4 million devices in one month sounds like a lot, it isn't. Android registers over a million activations per day, on average.
Also, the title is somewhat strange, as Microsoft doesn't sell WP devices, only WP licenses.
- 12-15-2012, 05:56 PM #7
A lot of the Android "activations" are double or even triple-counting.
For instance, if you buy a Galaxy S II, then update to an S III, your new S III is a "new activation," but Google continues to count your now-unused S II as "part of the userbase," even though it's in a drawer.
And if, like many Android users, you get a faulty device and a swapout, each new device is a "new activation."
That's not to say that Microsoft is anywhere close to Google's numbers of activations, but rather to point out that Google's numbers are padded to make the market look larger. What they never report are actual concrete sales numbers -- something that Apple does, to their credit.
- 12-15-2012, 06:15 PM #8
Let's not miss the forest for all the trees: Regardless of actual numbers, sales growth is the main thing here. WP 7 may not have been a flop, but it was a huge disappointment. It did not have the functions or support it needed to make a serious run at RIM for #3. Heck, most of it's existence Windows Mobile and Symbian still out sold it. If these numbers are accurate, or even close, then the next step will have been achieved: respectablitiy and a strong feeling of momentum.
WP still has the disadvantage of trying to build a fan base. RIM, Apple, and Google already have that. Being able to flirt with say 8% of total smartphone sales is a huge step for our favorite OS. I feel the 2nd generation of WP8's are almost more important then this first: It is VITAL that hardware improvements and software updates keep WP moving upwards.
- 12-15-2012, 10:51 PM #9
I didn't say the numbers were bad. I'm just putting them in perspective. Anyway, I agree, WP8 is definitely making headway, yet we still have a long way to go.
The activation numbers for both WP and Android are extremely inaccurate. I suspect those reporting WP numbers based on facebook statistics don't understand what they are reporting. As far as I can tell they aren't counting WP7 users that upgraded to WP8 handsets. They are only counting new WP users. As previously mentioned, they also aren't counting sales in China, which Android is. I understand that Androids numbers are fudged, but the difference is so large that the fudging isn't of much importance ;-)
I have a somewhat different opinion of what Microsoft should be working on (forget readying the OS for more powerful SoC's and focus every last engineer on getting OS bugs fixed and features out), but that is a topic for another time and thread.
Good night and good luck!
- 12-15-2012, 11:32 PM #11
- 12-15-2012, 11:52 PM #12
The lack of clarity around this is really Microsoft's fault. They could announce the WP sales numbers, rather than saying "sales are 300% higher" or "never been better" or other sleight of hand.
- 12-15-2012, 11:57 PM #13
You are both included in those numbers, whether you use facebook or not is irrelevant. It's magic... ;-)
Magic = average proportional relationship between WP facebook users and non-users.
- 12-25-2012, 05:04 PM #15
That's only true if it is Microsoft or a WP OEM announcing sales numbers.
All this dancing around the bush with "four times higher sales" and "we estimate X million based on Facebook activations" is fluff.
Microsoft should just publish the damn number, and then announce their plans to make it higher. In fact, it should report monthly sales.
- 12-28-2012, 04:13 PM #16
Brmiller1976, we find ourselves in a major agreement. I want to know how many units for each device offered in the US have been sold, which means how many Lumia 920, Lumia 922, 8X, and Ativ Oddysey the carriers have sold, especially how well the undercoded and underencrypted CDMA devices have sold.
Apple can provide numbers, as well as RIM when it comes to actual devices. The OEMs for android try to stay on that same path, but Microsoft has never revealed direct sales figures on the several WP devices offered, especially for the US market which has been awful for them being their home market.
I won't get on details why because I have already stressed the reasons too many times.
12-28-2012, 04:32 PM #18
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It's not going to be the greatest but hey its all about small stepping stones. You release a new product portfolio and it does 4 times more than your previous year that's a good sign so what to do next? Release another batch and try getting 8x the sales.
Sales numbers to me is meh as long as there is some sort of improvement which we are seeing. It is a tough battlefield but MS can't afford to loose this one and next year its about to get 4x harder.
- 12-29-2012, 09:54 AM #19
They are selling most of that increase in Europe, but in the US, they have only sold one percent more compared to last year and that spells trouble when having their top device as a GSM exclusive on a CDMA 2000 country. Sure, three devices on Verizon, but tell me another reason why no other CDMA carrier will touch WP8 devices besides the coding/encryption issue and lackadaisical sale figures for WP7.
Go ahead and blame Sprint (and the 512bit encryption nearly all CDMA carriers in the US require for their networks), you'll be blaming the wrong people rather than point out the obvious fact that Team Windows Phone hates CDMA and rather have WP as a GSM only platform.
- 12-30-2012, 12:45 PM #21
Based on your logic, every CDMA carrier (including Sprint/Virgin Mobile/Boost, US Cellular, MetroPCS, Cricket, C Spire, the CDMA side of Straight Talk, the CDMA side of Net10, Premier, and several others) except Verizon sided with Sprint for the same reasons. The CDMA support for WP7 coming from Microsoft towards US carriers was atrocious, and "forcing" them to accept China based CDMA coding and encryption rather than making sure to stay current on what Qualcomm (and soon the FCC) requires for encryption is not helping Team Windows Phone shorten the gap between them and every postpaid and prepaid CDMA 2000 carrier in the US.
I understand coding for CDMA devices is no easy task due to the security and encryption required, but when you have the other three mobile platforms come coded accordingly to Qualcomm standards (which are now being implemented on CDMA heavy countries except China), something isn't right, and to blame carriers is NOT the proper way to find out why WP8 has been skipped for it's launch by at least 50% of the total lines on the Cdma side. All I have seen is "blame Sprint" because is easier to say than finding out the true reasons, which will eventually lead to what the FCC told Google and Microsoft about their coding and encryption for CDMA carriers and why Qualcomm strongly recommends increasing the encryption to 512bit. Google addressed it before releasing Ice Cream Sandwich, while Apple and RIM had already meet those standards a couple of years ahead (for Apple would be two years since they offered their first CDMA based iPhones about two years ago).
Microsoft has been talking to Sprint and the CDMA carriers, and it comes down to bringing 512bit encryption, and it only takes an update to reflect the proper coding on WP8 (meaning Microsoft needs to have CDMA coders certified by Qualcomm on Team Windows Phone as they had for Windows Mobile). You can push so many GSM devices worldwide, but if you dont address coding for CDMA carriers outside of China, the US, Japan, India, and other CDMA heavy countries will still skip Windows Phone devices, especially when it comes to encryption and offering SVDO on its full form (1X Advanced + EVDO Revision B (+LTE)), and not stuck on only 1X Advanced as the lumia 822 on Verizon is currently stuck on (even when the phone is the only SVDO ready using Wp8).
I am not trying to stir controversy, but to blame one CDMA carrier in the US for what nearly all of them decided to do when it comes to WP8 is unresearched, and for a site like this one to run with this as the sister side did with WebOS it shows lack of professionalism, especially with the illustrations when it comes to anything Sprint. I wonder why not using the same tactics with (let's say) C Spire, Premier, Cricket, and even US Cellular and MetroPCS...
It just makes me wonder...
- 01-03-2013, 03:55 AM #22
Actually, the vast majority of CDMA subscribers in the USA can purchase a Windows Phone from their carrier right now. With the exception of Sprint, the other carriers you listed are either prepaid (Cricket), insignificant, or phasing out CDMA within the next 24 months (MetroPCS).
I doubt that CDMA has much to do with Windows Phone's sales either way.
- 01-03-2013, 07:57 AM #23
Guess what phone they currently offer... The Arrive/pro 7 which most of them got 4-8 months after Sprint, which Microsoft no longer supports, and none of the CDMA carriers have announced a replacement for it. Does it sound logical to you why they also didn't join Microsoft on the launch of WP8, knowing the facts their networks have been updated or are in the process to have their networks/software on tower equipment and perhaps replace their old equipment with newer equipment to reflect the recommended (and soon to be required by the FCC) encryption for security purposes and full functionality of SVDO.
Brmiller, let me give you some information that may get you thinking:
1. All the CDMA carriers who did not join on the launch of WP8 (well, it was pretty much everyone except Verizon) are members of an association of carriers (that include regional GSM carriers as well) which discuss issues like this and have been fighting for years to get a law in place to have the biggest two carriers negotiate costs for roaming (more specific to data roaming). Nearly all the members of this association decided not to carry WP8 devices at launch (although some of the GSM carriers will let you use unlocked devices until they offer some designed to work on their respective networks) mostly due to lack of support, sales figures for WP devices (which for Microsoft's home market have been atrocious), and most important (for most members, which have CDMA 2000 networks) improper coding and encryption.
2. Back in 2011, the FCC had hearings with representatives of the four major developers of smartphone platforms. The FCC made a strong recommendation to Google and Microsoft to change the coding for GSM and CDMA 2000 networks to meet Qualcomm Standards that changed a year ago (more likely because the FCC will make a ruling sometime this year or next year on it), and to be prepare to revisit the issue this year. Google made the proper changes and are reflected on ICS and JB, while Microsoft has not as of today and is forcing China Mobile coding standards to US carriers using CDMA 2000 networks. Microsoft better have an explanation on why they are being so stubborn to use the proper coding and encryption for US carriers when this issue gets revisited by the FCC later this year. I did not mention GSM coding because it is a lot easier to do and all platforms are standard about it.
- 01-03-2013, 09:16 PM #24
1) Microsoft can likely do just fine having Verizon (and Sprint, later in 2013) on board and ignoring the regional CDMA guys, who are on borrowed time.
2) Nokia's deal with China Unicom and China Mobile will likely sell more Windows Phones than the minor CDMA carriers have customers in total. I don't blame Microsoft for going where the money is -- China.
- 01-03-2013, 09:18 PM #25
In fact, if the FCC tells Microsoft that they may no longer sell US CDMA handsets due to their focus on China Mobile, I'm sure Microsoft would simply pull WP off of Verizon and Sprint. The big money is in China at this point -- the US is just a sideshow for WP. The market share numbers further underpin this. I don't blame MS and its OEM partners for chasing the easy money overseas -- in fact, that's probably the only way that they'll get significant CDMA volumes, no matter what they do.
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