- 01-10-2013, 11:12 AM #1
With Nokia announcing that it sold about 4.4 million Lumias for the quarter, we just need to calculate HTC, Samsung and ZTE sales to get to the total.
I'm going to guess:
Nokia: 4.4 million
HTC: 1.25 million
Samsung: 0.25 million
ZTE: 0.25 million
Total sales for Q4: 6.15 million
Doesn't seem great until you consider that WP didn't really start shipping in volume until late Nov/early Dec -- over halfway through the quarter.
Assuming they can keep sales at a steady clip, even with a slower rate after the North American holidays, that would suggest that Q1 could hit 10 million with a full three months of availability (especially given China).
01-10-2013, 11:23 AM #2
- 249 Posts
How many of those sales are from fire sale dirt cheap Nokia 710, Lumia 800, and Lumia 900? If most were from the 920 then that would be a way stronger than expected showing and proof that going AT& T exclusive was a calculated and smart move.
However, if 3.5 million were from budget Nokia WP7 handsets, then that is kind of bad.
- 01-10-2013, 04:05 PM #4
Poor numbers from Nokia, the demand is there but they can't deliver phones. Microsoft have to produce their own phone or convince Samsung to support the platform.
I think HTC sold less than a million. Data from Ad Duplex hints a proportion of 4:1 compared to Nokia in WP8 devices.
01-11-2013, 03:23 AM #9
- 784 Posts
Budget phones will always be a big part of Android and WP's sales... Just like the iPhone 4 is still selling well even if it's outdated...
And exclusivity is a bad move most of the time... and this time was not an exception.
- 01-11-2013, 04:41 AM #10
Dude, they could not make enough Lumia 920's available even for everyone at AT&T, how would it have helped to have equally bad availability for other carriers as well? Despite the exclusivity, Lumia 920 seem to have still sold more than HTC 8X that was available from all major US carriers. I doubt they could not have sold any more than they did, the sales would just have been distributed among a number of different carriers.
You did not present any proof that the exclusivity was a bad move.
- 01-11-2013, 05:57 AM #12
Nokia is working to increase it's carrier availability in the US though in the future as their recent communication tells (plans to have high-end, mid-end and low-end available for AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile).
- 01-11-2013, 08:27 AM #15
The actual number of sales is not as important as the visability and promotion. With BB10 coming out, and the next Android OS upgrade coming within the next few months after that, it is vital that Windows Phones is on the consumers mind. Verizon has a set of commercials out (I like the "So advanced, it's simple" idea), Nokia is featured in AT&T's "Hello" commercial for it's network, and Microsoft actually pushing them with really, really fun and effective commercials with various stars attached, visabitlity has been amazing. The general consumer is starting to understand what WP has to offer, and that is actually more important then the number of devices sold at the launch of WP8. The big unknown is the Windows Pro and Windows RT adoption on Tablets and what, if any, PC and laptop adoption Windows 8 will have. If that picks up, the consumer becomes more familier with the Live Tile OS and WP has a huge potential for growth as well.
I just want Nokia to survive as a WP only maufacturer, and I want to see HTC sell as many WP's as possible this year. I think it would be GREAT if HTC could point to WP as the main reason their sales turned around.
- 01-11-2013, 08:53 AM #16
The actual number of sales DO MATTER. When stock prices swing 18% on someone saying "we did great!", that's very very bad. Bad because people will believe false information and bet their money on it. Then, a week(or an hour) later, when real numbers are released, they loose 30%, total. This is not what is supposed to happen.
Sales matter, to shareholders, companies, and developers. The reason developers aren't clamoring to get first-in apps on wp is the lack of hard data to go by. Lack (or delay) of hard data always means uptake is poor, and investing in a platform is a waste of resources.
- 01-11-2013, 11:37 AM #18
If Nokia doesn't believe in the platform and they produce such a limited number of phones, then, how can they ask developers to believe in the platform?.
In a market with high entrance barriers like smartphone, because of the ecosystem, brand positioning, and the marginal decreasing cost of software, short term profitability is not an objective, you have to bring as many devices as possible to the public. Unless you aren't pushing the platform anymore and have plans to go in other direction.
- 01-11-2013, 12:15 PM #19
Less unused inventory on hand $$$
Assumed popularity when "sold out"
Don't underestimate nokias convictions. They're following a micrsoftie, afterall.
- 01-11-2013, 12:43 PM #20
Secondly, I did not state my point very well. Of course sales matter, but no matter HOW much they beat estimates, those sales from the 4th quarter will seem paltry compared to iOS and Android. This is what we found out when the 900 was launched.
But what the 900 did that no other launch of a WP is get Nokia and WP into prime time commercials and get the awarness up. That is what led to the increase curiosity of WP8, which led to more coverage of the launch of the devices, which led to better promotion, which led to beating those sales estimates. As BB10 will have a built in audince due to the BlackBerry name, and Android is Android, it is VITAL to WP getting over the hump that Nokia and other WP 8 devices stay in the minds of those looking to get phones in Q1 and Q2. That is why I believe that Q4 sales do not mean as much as the promotion of the devices. These sales figures are great, but need to continue to grow quarter over quarter.
This is why I still believe the Nokia 900 was the most important Windows device ever launched. Even if it di not meet sales expectations, it got WP in the mind of consumers. Huge.
- 01-11-2013, 01:17 PM #21
Speaking of Windows Phone 8, I was at the movie theatre on Wednesday with this friend. We saw an ad for Windows Phone 8 featuring the Nokia 920 and the HTC 8X.
01-12-2013, 11:14 AM #24
- 249 Posts
2.9 million is actually pretty damn good considering it competed with the two most popular phones ever in the same holiday season. You can't expect much more than that regardless of carrier availabilty.
The benefits of the exclusive contract is that AT&T and Microsoft foots the marketing bills and just about everything else while Nokia just takes in pure profit from that 2.9 million. Considering how large the task of battling the iphone 5 and GS3 in the same holiday season was, I would say that they made the right choice.
I can't imagine how much money Microsoft and HTC wasted on the 8x, especially adjusting manufacturing and adding a wireless charging plate last minute just for Verizon, just for a measly one million or less in sales.
Nokia totally played their cards right.
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