- 12-12-2012, 04:03 PM #1
1:20 PM At a time when Nokia (NOK) needs a solid quarter to prove to investors that it can stage a comeback, a new analysis suggests Lumia sales in the fourth quarter are shaping up to fall well short of the relatively lofty numbers being tossed around in recent reports. Pacific Crest’s James Faucette tossed some cold water on Lumia sales expectations on Wednesday, stating in a note to investors that the recent spike in Nokia’s stock was driven by some overly optimistic reports. The analyst believes demand for phones like the flagship Lumia 920 is healthy, but he thinks low shipment volumes pose a serious problem for Nokia.
“We believe that the recent rise in the stock may have been driven by what we would characterize as an overly optimistic interpretation of initial Lumia sales commentary,” Faucette told clients in a research note. “Back in mid-November, Bloomberg cited the rise in NOK1V shares as being driven by reports that the Lumia 920 had seen strong demand in Germany. While this may have been the case for a few thousand initial units, our checks indicate that retailers in Germany say they are only now beginning to receive the 920 across normal sales channels, and the volumes being received are still very small.”
He continued, “We believe there is some initial pent-up demand that is resulting in stores selling out of initial shipments in a few days. Nevertheless, we believe this is largely to do with the low shipment volumes rather than surprisingly strong demand. We believe a somewhat similar dynamic is likely going on at AT&T for the 920. Based on the inventory on hand, we believe AT&T is selling only 10,000 to 15,000 Lumia 920 devices per week at the moment. We believe stores are able to sell available stock in a few days; however, we found most stores getting only a handful at a time.”
Faucette estimates that Nokia will ship about 1 million new Windows Phone 8 handsets in the fourth quarter this year, but only about 500,000 units are likely to be sold to end users based on his observations.
that kind of goes against what this article said just a couple days ago....
12:35 PM Microsoft (MSFT) chief Steve Ballmer has repeatedly told investors and the press that Windows Phone 8 will finally make Microsoft relevant again in the mobile space. And while Ballmer has yet to share any specifics, he did state late last month that since the revitalized Windows Phone 8 platform launched in early November, sales of Windows Phone handsets have quadrupled compared to the same period last year. Now, according to new estimates derived using methods that have proven accurate in the past, it looks like Windows Phone sales may have surpassed 4 million units so far this quarter.
Using publicly available “monthly active users” data from the Facebook app for Windows Phone, blogs have been able to accurately estimate Windows Phone device sales in the past. New MAU data starting at the beginning of October 2012 was recently analyzed, and The Next Web estimates that Windows Phone sales so far this quarter total approximately 4.24 million handsets.
While the figure represents a small fraction of the total number of smartphones expected to be sold in the fourth quarter, it still shows a marked improvement compared to the same period in 2011. The biggest factor in the upswing is likely the Nokia Lumia 920, which has reportedly been met with steep demand in a number of key markets since launching last month.
- 12-12-2012, 04:16 PM #3
something tells me the first article is not right. if they can estimate a sell of 4.24 million new wp8 devices, and the first article says the guy expects nokia to only sell 500k new phones, that means that htc sold 3.75 million devices vs. nokia's 500k. dont think so.
12-12-2012, 04:26 PM #5
- 995 Posts
They would have had worldwide orders of xxxxx, they would have been idiots to have built too many more than were ordered. What would happen if they had orders for 10 million, they built 50 million, but only ever sold 30 million. They'd have warehouses full of loss making phones.
- 12-12-2012, 04:34 PM #7
I believe they had a few million or something of "leftover" Lumia 800 and 900 around the time 920 and 820 became relevant that they got rid of with a firesale-kinda thing? So in that way it was smart to not make too much, but partially I think they didnt have capacity to make more at this time either, seeing that they discontinued the other volume factor that made flagship phones for the entire Europe.
- 12-12-2012, 04:37 PM #8
- 12-12-2012, 04:39 PM #10
""the Lumia 920 isn’t back-ordered and/or sold-out due to the phone’s popularity per se. Rather, this is a result of Nokia supplying a conservative amount of handsets for American buyers while prioritizing the European market before the rest of the world""
Online Retailers Stocking Up on Nokia Lumia 920 Supplies to Make Up for AT&T Shortage
Annnnd... I'll just leave this here...
- 12-12-2012, 05:12 PM #11
Speaking as a finance guy I can tell you never buy these so called analyst's note. It is quite different than an equity research paper although they usually looks similar. But these so called notes can be anything from covering the analyst's own axx to covering the analyst's brother's gf's ex bf's mother's sister's axx and therefore far far far away from truth. They release these notes in hoping of getting benefit from that and thus highly related to their own position(probably not their own own, but yea their stupid friends', boss', brother's gf's ex bf's mother's sister's ). These notes usually draw the conclusion from so called channel check, where you can do a whole check that covers a good range or it can be the analyst picking up phone calling a random guy at an att store asking financial questions(therefore figure intensive) the guy couldn't even understand and use some tricky methods to get a number.
Example: call upon an att store in the middle of no where, get an answer that they sold 2 Lumina 920 and say there're 1000 att stores total so they state there are 2000 Lumina 920s sold. It can really get this ridiculous, which probably fits well in this case.
The financial industry has a ton of these things to trick those less informed general, one really should never make personal finance decisions based on them, especially the free ones online.(some certain equity research companies do a good job in their regular release, but those are not generally available free online)
- 12-12-2012, 05:20 PM #12
We believe that the recent rise in the stock may have been driven by what we would characterize as an overly optimistic interpretation of initial Lumia sales commentary
this shows what an ***** this analyst is or how he believes everyone else is *****. It's not us, people with only 10000 in the stock market that drives the price to jump over 30%, it's the fund managers and the like. Those people are considered well informed and an overly optimistic interpretation of initial Lumia sales commentary would not be enough for them to risk their jobs. This analyst basically said that the Nokia jump is due to the market and all the people involved being stupid...
- 12-12-2012, 07:57 PM #14
So much of what passes for tech journalism these days is just passing along the vaguest of speculation and rumors with zero effort at research or validation paired with click-bait article titles to pull in the fans who then proceed to tear into each other in the comments.
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