- 12-27-2012, 12:16 AM #51
Apple is at a critical juncture, it just doesn't look like it right now.
Google is really the one to keep an eye on, like Microsoft they can survive for quite a long time without making any money from Mobile. Apple and RIM cannot. Apple certainly is not going anywhere for a LONG time.
RIM is the weakest player here and I just keep flip-flopping on how they will do. On one hand I think Google may hate Microsoft just enough to support RIM and try to suffocate Windows 8 and Window Phone 8. If they don't find a partner in Google, they just don't have the ecosystem to be a really strong player on their own.
- 12-27-2012, 07:57 AM #52
The bloated sales numbers for Apple are 100% the free iPhone 4. Holiday time comes and every parent comes in and can't say no to a free iPhone. Luckily Verizon has the 822 for free now as well. That will hopefully boost competition.
- 12-27-2012, 10:34 AM #53
Unfortunately most people won't know what they are missing with an iphone4. Unfortunately, it's a pretty slow and dated experience out of the box (if you update IOS). But, most kids / teenagers that want an iphone won't care about that. They'd rather it be slow and have all the apps they want than be fast, have LTE and not have the apps.
It can't be great for Apple to be selling so many low-end devices like that, margins wouldn't be very good ... and they made it 8GB storage instead of 16GB, correct? I think that was a bad move too.
- 12-27-2012, 12:53 PM #54
But even with the Apple sales being the older model, that can't help the Windows Phone market share. That's more iOS phones, more iOS app sales, more people becoming invested in the iOS ecosystem, and more people that will be harder to convince that Windows Phone is what is upcoming. I'm not following how this is bad for apple - yeah, I understand how it's not as good for them as the numbers that I posted would suggest, since you're saying that the sales are not for the iPhone 5, but they're still getting people hooked on the crack that is iOS, right?
- 12-27-2012, 01:13 PM #55
For Apple, I think it's about direction. People moving down the food-chain with the iphone suggests that the iphone5 is not a compelling upgrade. It's bad financially for Apple, but I agree, from an ecosystem war perspective, it IS good for Apple. If the 920 and 8X were a HUGE success like the iphone has been, and all of a sudden, sales dropped off and people were buying the 822 and 820, I think it would be a concern for Nokia and HTC, but Microsoft would be happy either way. So good for the software side, bad for the hardware side of Apple.
- 12-27-2012, 11:32 PM #56
- 12-28-2012, 12:47 AM #57
12-28-2012, 09:23 PM #58
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This goes into what Honestabrebread has said - that people aren't all the committed and they will dump your platform quickly. They want iPhones because it's a name they heard, but when they see how tiny and slow the iPhone 4 is in comparison to those people with new phones out there, they will be disappointed in the brand and Apple in general. I've seen it with people who have iPhone 4 models on Verizon that can't keep up with my LTE speeds. Guy I worked with saw me do a tap+send and asked how he could do it - and had to explain that no iPhone could do it. When he found out I ended up getting my 822 for free with contract, he openly said he regretted that he couldn't return this phone that he was so excited about.
People also made a big to-do about marketshare and that report as well, but last year they were saying that Apple had around 43% of the US smartphone market yet the numbers indicated that had under 14% of the global market in actual numbers. Either the iPhone does not sell anywhere else or those retail surveys are wrong.
I would bet the retail surveys are inaccurate. If Apple Stores, for instance, participate in the survey but Verizon stores do not then we will have a number that is not accurate. How do you survey Verizon online sales? Walmart makes it a habit of not answering retail surveys. Best Buy usually doesn't either. So how can you get an accurate reading? And many companies request that inventory levels not be reported to outside inquiries. Apple tends to not to this. Why? It's part of a PR move to rig the retail survey to make yourself look good. Trust me, I've seen it. It's used to try to pump up your stock and your image while trying to create a manufactured demand.
The high number in the retail survey leads me to believe that Apple is doing far worse than any of us think with the iPhone. Knowing that the release of the data was shortly before Christmas, they sought to rig the number to try to encourage people to believe there is a demand. This happens when you actually have excess inventory you wish to purge.
Too many people seem to think ecosystem matters with the phone. This is not the computer. People have not invested hundreds and hundreds of dollars in software and thousands in equipment. Most smartphone users likely spend well under $20 a year in app purchases. Most apps used are not paid. Migration is a cinch as long as there are good alternative (or the same) apps.
Microsoft's big advantage here is that they offer a different paradigm - one that is still developing, but they have differentiated from desktop OSes in looks the most and in functionality. The Live Tile is an innovation and I have heard nothing but praise of it. The maturity is not there, but it will get there.
I've heard a lot of disappointment over iPhone 5. I also know that Verizon and AT&T are not happy over having more 4S and 4 phones out there because both want to push LTE. They had no choice but to offer the 4 and 4S in order to get the 5, the phone they were promised would blow all sales records out of the water. The GS3 is still doing better.
I know for a fact the Verizon and AT&T want to be in a position to dump the iPhone entirely. But they need more than Android. WP8 and its growth is something they want (notice how much Verizon has advertised it). Both also will champion BB10. If they can get both off the ground and growing then they will be able to kick Apple to the curb in a year or so and stop selling the iPhone.
I do know that Verizon is actively pursing ways to ditch Apple entirely.
12-28-2012, 11:07 PM #60
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- 12-28-2012, 11:10 PM #61
iPhone is a completely different story. Verizon pays on average $659 per iPhone, has to offer the phones at the price Apple says, and the two best selling iPhone models (the 4 and 4S) are not LTE. LTE phones save the company about $7 a month, which is why reps receive a $25 SPIFF for selling 4G devices.
VZW recently took away all iPhone concession devices because they don't want reps backing the iPhone. One of my good friend's sister is a store manager and she had her iPhone 4S taken and replaced by an 822. They want WP8 to succeed 100%. There's also talk of VZW writing apps to help bring over big name apps to WP8. BB10 should see the same kind of support.
12-28-2012, 11:15 PM #62
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Most of the reason why the iPad for POS right now is because it is the most developed at the moment. But there are severe limitations to those systems. Once again, I think 8 or RT will end up being a stronger solution down the line because of the kernel itself and other features. Imagine integration of Live Tiles into a POS system for real time information.
The iPad is the most well developed tablet of the moment, but it has peaked. That's the danger in arriving first. Android will prove more versatile and Windows will prove more secure and likely have more capability deeper in.
The problem with the iPhone is the amount of shared revenue that takes subscription money away from the carriers. Apple has been able to make a lot of demands in regards to the iPhone in the past. As its market share declines and its reputation also sinks, Apple will cease to be in a strong bargaining position. Verizon will keep it IF Apple is treated like any other phone maker. That also means that Verizon gets to negotiate what they pay for the phone, not be dictated to. Apple has been in a strong position for the past few years, but I suspect the carriers will get bolder.
In short, expect Apple to have to cut their sell through prices to the carriers if they expect to have them keep the iPhone. I'd guess that means carriers will pay $100 less per phone. That's over $2 Billion less per quarter in revenue to Apple, meaning Apple will lose over 5% of their revenue and most of it will come out of their profits.
If the carriers put their foot down, Apple's profits will decline by 15-20%. Apple gets $2 Billion per quarter from the carriers and it is all pretty much pure profit. Once the shine comes off Apple, they will have a rough go. As their profits fall, their stock will plummet and heads will roll.
The problem is that this is how it will be because of how they have structured their business. Their massive profits have come from bullying other companies and their own customers. They inflate prices and have done a great job of making people believe their products are better. But their lack of LTE in all but the iPhone 5 and how crummy the iPhone 4 and 4S are compared to cheap or free Android and WP8 devices will hurt their image long term. It won't happen over night, but we're seeing the first stages as investors begin to bail little by little.
- 12-28-2012, 11:56 PM #63
Verizon has a HUGE influence here in the states. If they want something to happen in the wireless market, it will happen. It's been known for a while that Apple bullies the carriers, it seems from the stories I see posted here that there are a lot of Verizon execs that do not like to be pushed around by Apple. Verizon has investors and can't make stupid rash decisions, but I suspect that they are actively trying to replace the iphone revenue stream so they can get better terms from Apple. The recent China Mobile deal with Nokia is an example too, it seems like China Mobile didn't want to bend to Apple and made a deal with Nokia instead.
Apple is like Coke right now, the carrier will lose customers if they don't stock it, and the manufacturer will lose customers if the carrier doesn't stock it.
One thing I've always noticed about Microsoft is that they generally make sure they play nice with others and that their partners can succeed. Apple just wants to take it all for themselves, which works only under perfect conditions.
12-29-2012, 12:46 PM #64
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Really been enjoying reading this thread. I find all of this quite interesting regarding the carriers trying to get away from the influence of Apple. I've always felt that's probably the relationship that the carriers have with Apple. Anyway, I hope WP8 and BB10 both succeed because we need more competition. I just wish I could have convinced my wife to even look at a WP... alas she wanted an iPhone. She and her family have been mac users since the 80's, so she wasn't going to change now. :p
- 12-29-2012, 12:52 PM #65
With the chromebooks, part of the reason I think tablets are popular is they provide a relatively portable and inexpensive means to access the internet. Apps are important, but it's the internet access at a low cost that's the key. (Exhibit A: the strong sales for the Kindle HD and Nexus 7, both priced at $200.) However, tablets' primary weakness is the lack of a physical keyboard. Chromebooks provide that internet access (in a way that's even faster that tablets) and provide a physical keyboard all in a low cost package. Additionally, if you feel comfortable having much of your information in the cloud, Chromebooks can provide a viable alternative to traditional desktop programs offered by Microsoft and Apple.
I think in the coming years Apple will remain strong in smartphone sales but will significantly fall off in tablet sales, which in turn will gradually erode their smartphone sales.
- 12-29-2012, 02:53 PM #67
Anyway, yeah, hopefully we'll see that Lumia at MWC, but if you are listening Nokia, I don't want to hear about it until it's ready to go on the shelves.
- 12-29-2012, 04:07 PM #68
Oh yeah, Google's Chromebook concept is definitely a threat to both Microsoft and Apple, though it is a little unclear to me which company is threatened more by them. Microsoft probably is, but I think Windows 8 mitigates against the chromebooks' possible impact and potentially shifts the vulnerability over more to Apple, especially considering chromebooks are essentially second (non-smartphone) devices and compete on cost, an area where Apple is perpetually vulnerable (as was noted in the iPhone 5 adoption discussion within this thread). Tablets are much more firmly within that same, second device niche than laptops are (excluding lower-end netbooks).
Getting back to Windows 8 on larger-screen devices, I firmly believe that Windows 8 will be a significant success, albeit one that takes some time to take hold, and the similarity between Windows 8 on large screen devices and Windows Phone 8 on pocket-sized devices will ultimately only benefit the latter. The key will be for developers to create applications on WP 8 that take advantage of the live tile capabilities (i.e. display useful, real-time information in the tile).
P.S. Incidentally, I'm not entirely sure that if chromebooks are successful in terms of gaining user adoption that will have a direct, negative impact on Windows Phone adoption. I view Android and Chrome as being two separate paths Google is pursuing. Android's lag issues and possible susceptibility to malware runs counter to the benefits of chromebooks, and though some people would like Google to incorporate Android into chromebooks, I think that would be a big mistake, at least until (if?) the issues with Android get resolved.
- 01-04-2013, 12:43 PM #69
Having had the Trophy I actually found it to be easier to use than my prior iOS and Android devices, that said I opted to get an Android phone again due to Verizon's lack of a compelling WP8 device on the high end from Nokia. I don't think asking for 32GB and microSD is too much to ask for or nice 720p or 1080p screen. Size wise, I would be happy with 4.7" display I have the GN2 now on Verizon and there are days I wish it was the size of the GS3 but other days I prefer the size when reading emails and web pages. Still IF we see a high end device from Nokia like the rumored 1022/922 variant by spring time I could be motivated towards it.
- 01-04-2013, 02:40 PM #70
I love my 8X... But I'm really drawn to the Lumia's form factor, Nokia's exclusive apps... And apparently their customer support is awesome.
The 1022/922 variant heading to Verizon is my phone of choice... I just need more info like, yesterday!
- 01-04-2013, 04:52 PM #71
If Easter time is a good indicator, then I have an upgrade available then and I would be willing to wait, in the meantime I could pick up a Nokia 822 relatively cheaply on eBay, thoughts on that?
01-05-2013, 03:25 PM #73
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Verizon is switching things up a bit with the Surface in their stores as well. Of course it would be kind of weird to use an iPad to get info about Windows Phone, but maybe it's a small indication that Verizon is more than happy to switch from the iPad once the Surface ecosystem is more developed. I guess we'll see with time.
- 01-06-2013, 10:02 PM #74
So at MWC we should hear something but don't expect it until Easter or are you saying 2 months after Easter? I certainly hope its sooner rather than later the 8x is certainly not helping their sales.
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