iOS continue a decline and Android continue to stay strong?? The latest numbers show that (in the US) iOS went from 35.8% to 53.3% from last November to this November, while Android dropped form 52.8% to 41.9% in the same time frame. In other nations, the numbers aren't all as dramatic, but most of them show the same directions with a couple exceptions. I do like the climb of Windows Phone from 1.9% to 4.2% in Australia, and from 3.6% to 11.8% in Italy. In the US we're only at 2.7%, up from 2.1%, but we must also keep in mind that this report is based on numbers prior to the launch numbers for Windows Phone 8.
Latest report shows global Win Phone growth, strong Nokia comeback in the UK | Windows Phone Central
Except Apple cut their iPhone 5 parts orders and their stock continues to decline.
Kantar's 12 week numbers don't jibe with numbers reported by the OEMs in the prior quarter, so I take them with a grain of salt. The fact that there's plenty of stock all over and no shortage despite massive "popularity" is a warning sign. I wonder if Kantar takes deliveries or sales into account, because the 53.3% could be Apple being overly zealous and way over delivering. Another factor is that these surveys often do not account for Walmart and Amazon sales.
I've worked in the retail industry and have dealt with surveys in the past like Kantar's and know how inaccurate they can be. If an item is selling out then they can be dead on, but retailers and manufacturers will not release sales nor will they release inventory numbers, so it is hard to arrive at any firm numbers. Most businesses will not release sales numbers to any third party at all.
Apple's quarterly earnings report will be the most illuminating. Their iPhone 5 first weekend sales were very unimpressive considering the LTE upgrade
on the phone. Their stock and outlook has been downgraded by everyone. There is already talk that they are prepping a mid-cycle iPhone because sales of the iPhone 5 are terrible when weighed against expectations. They probably had a huge bump from the first week or two and have fallen off the planet since then. I would suspect that the iPhone 4 may be the best "seller" because it's free with a contract. I do know a lot of people who picked them up and are completely ignorant of the smartphone landscape. They hear "free iPhone" and go nuts, even though it is 3G and pretty crummy compared to the newest tech. A coworker who picked one up (also VZW customer) was so excited until I picked up my 822 and he saw it. And now that it just went free, he's even more disappointed.
I bet the iPhone numbers in the US are a mixture of free iPhone 4 models and too much inventory that Kantar is logging as marketshare. We won't know how many iPhone 5 models are sold because Apple will lump them all together to hide how poorly the 5 is doing.
The iPhone's time is coming close to being up. Android will remain big. I think WP8 is slowly gaining some traction and I think RIM will rebound. iOS could be considered the worst mobile OS by mid-year with Apollo+, Jelly Bean, and BB10 out.
And Apple stock keeps on bleeding - and it's not just the fiscal cliff and taxes. It jumped up slightly on the report and then fell again as people realized the report is not likely accurate (and I've heard plenty of that today due to reports of excess inventory of all iPhones).
Apple has lost over about 27% of its value since mid-September. Google, OTOH, has lost under 10% and has recovered from their biggest sell off. If Apple is so hot, they should be mirroring Google and losing a bit, but not over 1/4 of their value.
Apple is in trouble - at least mild trouble. They are not going out of business or anything, but imagine the kind of tanking that will happen if their year to year sales numbers have only a slight growth or are stagnant. Their stock will tank worse than it has been.
One iffy quarter and Apple will lose half their current market cap. Then the stories will come out about how Apple has lost their mojo and we could expect Tim Cook to be forced out as Apple desperately looks to recover. Of course, they were overvalued from the getgo. I suspect their marketshare will eventually fall into the 10-15% range in tabs and smartphones. They'll be the minor players they were back in the 80s and 90s mainly due to their setup.
I think the same for RIM, really. MS and Google have the best upside because of their greater variety. Even if MS offers their own products, I suspect they can exist with other phones and tabs.