MSFT has to attract the iOS and Android developers so that they will port their apps over. Will the promise of Universal Apps be so irresistible that these developers will feel compelled to join the WIndows party? I doubt it. They will only come if there is money to be made, and that means market share.
Without apps, there is no market share; without market share there are no apps. Will Universal apps break that catch 22 situation.
That's where I remain to be convinced.
This was a huge point that was talked about in the even held on the 21st of January.
There are 1.5 Billion Windows Desktop users. 75+% of those are Windows 7 and up. That's well over a billion eligible for the free upgrade to Windows 10. Even a big majority of XP users are expected to finally upgrade, as this is the one many of them have been waiting for. I know a couple of corporations with thousands of PCs just waiting for 10 to upgrade their antiquated XP boxes into brand new Windows 10 boxes.
A very large majority is expected to make the jump after it is available. That's going to be a lot of people on Windows 10. Developing apps for Windows 10 should be a no brainer. Market share will be HUGE for it already. Since the market share is already there, the app, which is universal, will be translated to Windows 10 for phones and tablets as well.
Why make an app for Windows 10 as opposed to a desktop app to run across all Windows platforms? (Not just talking web wrappers here.) Because:
1. it will be a very small minority of users that don't upgrade,
2. market share is huge,
3. a universal store browsed by over a billion people,
4. those billion+ people will likely have multiple devices, and may end up switching multiple devices to Win10 in order to take advantage of having the same apps they already use at work and be able to put them on their tablets and phones.
It's a brilliant vision. It will either work, or it won't. At this point, there is no way of knowing for sure, however the economics and the principles here are quite sound. If I were to bet money for or against it and risk losing my own personal money, I'd bet in favor of it, because I think it is just that likely that it will work.
If I weren't already retired from developing, I'd be jumping at the chance to get in on this. I just really don't feel like jumping back into the game this late in life. I've got too much else to do, like raise my family. I'm 50 already, and keeping up with new technology every 6 months just isn't as much fun as keeping up with my 2 little girls that I get to raise.