Windows 10 pointless without Windows 10 Mobile

[runamuck83]

So, we're all aware of the news of the day and a lot of people are having a meltdown. Thurrott is spouting off that Lumia will be dead in a year from now and we might as well pack our bags and move to iPhone or Android - and that ultimately Windows 10 Mobile will be irrelevant/non-existent a year from now as well.

Call me crazy, but without Windows 10 Mobile, Windows 10 itself is meaningless.

Sure, it'll make a great PC/Laptop/Tablet OS - but why bother if the dream of "universal apps" across PC/Laptop/Tablet & PHONES is not realized?

Seems to me that if Thurrott's pessimistic fears were to come true - the entire point of Windows 10 would be moot... Without Windows 10 Mobile I see no value in Windows 10 as a whole...

 

[tgp]

Without Windows 10 Mobile I see no value in Windows 10 as a whole...

I don't think so. Windows is necessary for PCs. Sales of PCs may not be growing like they were in years past, but PCs aren't going away anytime soon.

Microsoft's mobile so far has been insignificant anyway. How do we rationalize saying that it is absolutely necessary? How can it be crucial? If it was, Microsoft as a company would have been in deep doodoo a long time ago. For the last 4+ years they've had <=3% of the market.

 

[runamuck83]

Perhaps my point is that the main "selling point" of Windows 10 has been the drumbeat of "Universal apps! Universal apps! Universal apps!". Well, if there's no Windows 10 Mobile, there are no such thing as "Universal Apps". Therefore, Windows 10 would be meaningless based on their whole sales pitch.

They spent a week at Build 2015 talking up "Universal apps!" to developers - if there's no Windows 10 Mobile what was the point of that?

 

[mijacs]

I agree that it is necessary. Someone buys a phone that uses some OS then they buy the tablet and laptop to match. Not to mention they use the cloud service that works best with their device. Also businesses want to have a complete system from to to bottom.

 

[tgp]

Someone buys a phone that uses some OS then they buy the tablet and laptop to match.

Seems logical, but that's not how it works in real life. Considering that Windows comprises more than 90% of the desktop market and iOS and Android make up 96% of the smartphone market, it is obvious that few users have matching OS's between desktop and mobile.

A smartphone is basically an app launcher. The OS itself is not important. Microsoft's services on iOS and Android reduces the importance of Microsoft's mobile OS even further.


Sent from whatever device I happen to be using today using Tapatalk

 

[Laura Knotek]

Perhaps my point is that the main "selling point" of Windows 10 has been the drumbeat of "Universal apps! Universal apps! Universal apps!". Well, if there's no Windows 10 Mobile, there are no such thing as "Universal Apps". Therefore, Windows 10 would be meaningless based on their whole sales pitch.

They spent a week at Build 2015 talking up "Universal apps!" to developers - if there's no Windows 10 Mobile what was the point of that?

They would still have Xbox, which also has apps.

Sent from my rooted Nexus 7 (2013) using Tapatalk

 

[a5cent]

I agree with most statements here. I just think the OP's post needs to be rephrased.

The potential demise of W10M doesn't make W10, as an OS in its own right, any less significant.

It does however make the concept of universal apps almost irrelevant. Nobody is clamoring to use universal apps on an xbox. Few are clamoring to use them on laptops/desktops. With the potential demise of W10M, to whom it would fall to provide the initial push towards universal apps, any synergies between MS' mobile efforts and all their other products and services are dead. It would be rather ironic if that were to happen now, after MS spent billions of $$$ and the entire last decade inching that universal app vision towards reality.

I disagree that the choice of mobile OS is irrelevant however. That may be true from a consumer's point of view (ignoring personal preferences), but that is not true for corporations, particularly not if they develop their own software solutions, where the entire universal app concept has by far the most to offer in terms of reducing development costs and simplifying IT administration.

If MS does abandon the mobile market, then it's safe to assume the xbox will soon be finding a new home too, as abandoning mobile is the same as exiting the consumer market. You simply can't successfully play a part in the consumer market without a strong mobile presence.

 

[theefman]

Seems the main selling point of Windows 10 is that its not Windows 8.... And as for mobile, we've been reminded many, many time over the last 12 months tha Microsoft is a SOFTWARE company, and since all their mobile software is on ios and android I think the reality is they are already as much in mobile as they want or are ever likely to be.
Sent from my S3

 

[tgp]

It does however make the concept of universal apps almost irrelevant.

Yes, it makes apps irrelevant period. Since they aren't used on the desktop, if you take away mobile there is little to no reason for them to exist. That is, in the current paradigm. That may change down the road.

I disagree that the choice of mobile OS is irrelevant however. That may be true from a consumer's point of view (ignoring personal preferences), but that is not true for corporations, particularly not if they develop their own software solutions, where the entire universal app concept has by far the most to offer in terms of reducing development costs and simplifying IT administration.

Yes, my thinking was consumer oriented. You are absolutely correct that it would matter more to corporations. But so far WP has made relatively little progress into the corporate world. In the US at least it is at 1%. I know that it is higher in other countries, but with a 2.5% worldwide market share, it's not much. Would we see corporations writing their own software as Windows apps?

With iOS having the bulk of the business market share, and many supporting Android and BlackBerry as well, I doubt that is important at this time. From my experience, I see mobile apps being a very lightweight counterpart to the desktop apps. They'll have enough features for the employee on the road to do what he/she needs to do, but the real work is done back at the office on the desktop. Even with the option of universal apps, I don't see that changing anytime soon as the app on the desktop is still somewhat hamstrung.

 

[a5cent]

^ Will respond later. I'm out and about until tomorrow.

 

[tgp]

^ Will respond later. I'm out and about until tomorrow.

^ I can't wait! :smile:

I will say this in advance about what you're going to write: I agree with it, in theory, as I do almost all of your posts. However, you seem to live in a world of tech utopia. What seems logical and what plays out in real life are often two different things.

 

[luxnws]

There are the pollyanas on one side and the doomsayers on the other side. Both sides make good arguments but given the magnitude of Microsoft's retreat from mobile hardware, it looks like the doomsayers have the better case. It's pretty obvious that Satya Nadella doesn't want Microsoft to carry the water for Windows phone hardware anymore. They are basically throwing in the towel.

Microsoft did release too many phones for the low and mid-range over the past 18 months. It seemed like a confusing, willy nilly, throw something up and see what sticks strategy. But it's hard not to see that they failed to build on the success of the N O K I A Lumia 520 after 2013. Just too much nimble and moneyed competition from companies which responded in force with low- and mid-range Android phones.

Agree with the others who have divined that Microsoft will probably release some 'benchmark' Windows phones in the three segments that they identified (a la Surface and Surface Pro) and rely on third parties to provide phones to the rest of the market.

So Windows phones aren't dead yet but they are on life support. If a Windows phone release doesn't re-capture the lightning in a bottle success that the 520 had, Windows phones will probably be gone in a few years. And then Microsoft of the 2010s will really be the IBM of the 1980s personified. Look on the bright side, IBM dominates in mainframes even today and still is a major Fortune 500 company.

 

[Pete]

Microsoft isn't throwing in the towel. Windows Phone isn't dead.

The only thing that's happening is stopping the avalanche of releasing yet more low and mid-rage handsets into an already crowded market. I suspect many of these began life under Nokia who wanted to (and did) enjoy the monopoly on Windows Phone handsets.

Those days are over. Microsoft will make excellent phones that cover key user groups.

The only people killing Windows Phone are the people who jump to the wrong conclusion and then shout that the world is ending.

 

[Wbutchart1]

Thurott seems to have changed his mind from his doom last night to their being a light now with the new strategy..... (confused much..)

Personally I agree win 10 without mobile is pointless, did anyone see the continuum promotions, turn your mobile into a desktop pc....whats the point of designing that to can it as soon as it sees light of day. If WP got binned then it would reduce the point significantly of the mobile experience that they are trying to create. Whether Satya likes it or not the direction he has taken the company in means windows for mobile is essential for it is only in that environment that they can show the true flexibility of one experience on different devices.

 

[Pete]

Thurott seems to have changed his mind from his doom last night to their being a light now with the new strategy..... (confused much..)

Pretty typical of him. He does like to type before he thinks things through.

 

[owensdj]

Microsoft isn't the only company that makes phones that run Windows Mobile.

 

[Spectrum90]

Universal apps is the touch framework for Windows, it will be used to develop touch centric apps for tablets and convertibles. Microsoft still could get a decent market share in the tablet market.

Microsoft could also port the universal app stack to Android and iOS for the enterprise market.

 

[a5cent]

I will say this in advance about what you're going to write: I agree with it, in theory, as I do almost all of your posts. However, you seem to live in a world of tech utopia. What seems logical and what plays out in real life are often two different things.

Fascinating :wink:

Anyway, I'll take that as a half-compliment, in the sense that while I may often fail to convince you of a certain point of view, you're just as often unable to make an effective counterargument and are thus forced to resort to "the world behaves illogically and doesn't make sense" as a way to defend views that are ultimately illogical and don't make sense :wink:

Anyway, I've been thinking about your post, got hold of a laptop, and decided I'll answer today anyway.

With iOS having the bulk of the business market share, and many supporting Android and BlackBerry as well, I doubt that is important at this time.

I suspect we're thinking about very different kinds of corporations.

Most small to medium sized businesses don't require, nor do they develop, their own software. Most of these companies, assuming they even have/require a mobile work force, get by just fine with the standard mail, calendar, and the other usual productivity apps. I'm not talking about them. I'm talking about those corporations that already have millions or billions of dollars invested in custom software solutions, like large insurance companies, government agencies, militaries, etc. These types of institutions often already have a lot of custom built Windows based software, and considering many of them have branch offices and field officers, many also have a mobile workforce. Today, some of their applications would very likely be recreated as web applications, but not all of them lend themselves well to that type of architecture either.

For these types of scenarios, the ability to create a single piece of software that runs across multiple form factors does represent a lot of potential savings. I'm yet unaware of any such company seriously including Android or iOS apps as part of their strategic software product portfolio. At most they have a few fringe apps here and there that aren't considered noteworthy investments or strategically relevant, and which would instantly be discarded as part of a more comprehensive IT strategy that includes mobile as a strategic component. This is where WP does have a shot. Partially because MS already has a foot in the door in most of these companies, partially because these enterprise entities couldn't care less about market share, and partly due to other factors like security, and how having a single IT supplier eliminates the risks of multiple suppliers blaming each other for problems, etc.

Of course, what these companies do care about is a very reliable supplier, who isn't constantly changing course or rethinking their strategy every few years, and who isn't regularly putting whole product lines at risk which they heavily invested into. Without guarantees and a strong commitment to their mobile endeavors, universal apps can't play a role in the enterprise market either. If that's not the case however, then universal apps do have a role to play in such environments, in which case the OS that facilitates that capability also matters.

 

[tgp]

I may often fail to convince you of a certain point of view, you're just as often unable to make an effective counterargument and are thus forced to resort to "the world behaves illogically and doesn't make sense" as a way to defend views that are ultimately illogical and don't make sense

Ha, well, "the world behaves illogically and doesn't make sense" is as effective of counterargument as any I've seen! If the (tech) world made sense, all the predictions of WP taking the world by storm would be true. They aren't. Explain that! Basically, you say "because this and this and this, here is the result." And, what you say is very logical, which is why I say I agree with you in theory.

But it doesn't work that way (often). Microsoft's universal apps and so-called single OS (which it really isn't) make perfect sense. Who wouldn't jump on that? But I almost guarantee you it isn't going to happen. And I cannot explain why exactly, other than that the two incumbents are too strong at this point. WP has had a lot of things going for it for almost 5 years now, and it has gotten (almost) nowhere. That is why I say W10 and everything that goes along with it isn't going to help much, if any. I can't really say why, other than that history has shown that consumers are happy with what they currently have and it would take a real game changer to make them reconsider. If you label that as "the world behaves illogically and doesn't make sense", be my guest!

And I'll carry that same idea to part 2 of your reply above. Every word is logical. It remains to be seen how it actually spins out.

No matter how you view Microsoft's announcements yesterday, it would be very difficult to feel reassured if your livelihood depends on M10M being around in a few years. Most of us here are simply fans, and its future success or demise means little to us, other than emotionally. If today you were going to stake your future on a mobile OS where failure is not an option, which one would you choose?

 

[Blacklac]

Windows has been self reliant for years. Why would that suddenly change?

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