Five Reasons Why Windows Phone Is Not Dying

[psychotron]

Article makes some decent arguments and is interesting enough to spark some discussion IMO.

Five Reasons Why Windows Phone Is Not Dying?

 

[Judge_Daniel]

I think "decent" is the strongest word I'd use for the arguments in that article. It definitely isn't convincing, though. Although a lot of this sounds negative, I believe there is still plenty of hope for WP. Here's why:

1. Titan: The fact that the Titan is WP's flagship device is honestly a little saddening. I'd buy that phone in a heartbeat if it was available in the US right now, but when lining up the specs side-by-side with a flagship Android device, it just falls flat. Sure, we can yell "WP doesn't require as much resources to run as fast as Android" all day long, but the truth is, when people look at two phones side-by-side, they are going to choose the best numbers for the lowest price. Period. I do enjoy the positives of the Titan, which the author pointed out, but there are definitely missing features that are found in every current Android flagship device.

2. This is my favorite point in the article. Microsoft is a cash cow. It has the resources to throw money at something unprofitable until it takes off (eg: Bing..even though it still hasn't REALLY taken off ). Phones are a pivotal part of a healthy technological ecosystem, so I believe MS is willing to throw enough funds into WP to make it success, no matter the cost.

3. I was JUST thinking about this earlier. MS should use articles like that "WP is the most stable OS" article in ads. If nothing else but a short quote, the worst that could happen is that it would spark a conversation between people to talk about WP.

However, I do not believe this is a sign of a healthy OS. Look at Symbian and WebOS. They both had giant cult followings with adamant followers, yet they are both finished.

4. Once again, Mango is a good, good thing, but it is not an example of why WP isn't dying. I'd much rather look at the phones being released with Mango as an example of why WP is or isn't dying rather than just another iteration of software.

5. I think this point is mediocre. I think people like Brandon Watson have been doing a great job at reaching to new developers, but again, the better point would be to show a chart of the growth of the Marketplace. (Didn't it just go through a lull, though? I'm hoping that it was just because it was just before the acceptance of Mango apps.)

Overall, I believe WP will be around for many, many years to come. If nothing else, point number two will keep it around. A point I would've made, however, would have been Tango. Microsoft is intending on making WP cheap via Tango. So cheap that it'll become a major competitor in up and coming markets. I honestly believe that is where WP is going to shine. It is going to be a long, hard, uphill battle here in the states and in other developed countries, but places where smartphones are just emerging is going to become Microsoft's gold mine.

 

[Reflexx]

I agree that it wasn't a very strong or convincing article.
The entire article should have just been about the ecosystem. That's really what is going to drive WP to success. The other stuff is just gravy.

 

[Big Supes]

WP dying? It's only just starting taking baby steps!

 

[ikkf]

1.but the truth is, when people look at two phones side-by-side, they are going to choose the best numbers for the lowest price.

Honestly, I've never paid much attention to specs when shopping for phones. I test them out at stores and read lots of reviews online. It's like apples and oranges. You can say that the clockspeed on a Mac's processor is lower than that of an equivalent PC, but that doesn't mean it's going to perform slower. I dunno, maybe it's just me, though.

The entire article should have just been about the ecosystem. That's really what is going to drive WP to success. The other stuff is just gravy.

Agreed. With Win8 able to run on tablets and PCs as well as run WP apps, it's shaping up to be a more seamless ecosystem than any other around.

 

[Ivan006]

I can't even see WP7 slowing down. How could anyone think they're dying? :-S

I like the points in the article. It makes perfect sense why WP7 will be around for a long while.

 

[psychotron]

1. Titan: The fact that the Titan is WP's flagship device is honestly a little saddening. I'd buy that phone in a heartbeat if it was available in the US right now, but when lining up the specs side-by-side with a flagship Android device, it just falls flat. Sure, we can yell "WP doesn't require as much resources to run as fast as Android" all day long, but the truth is, when people look at two phones side-by-side, they are going to choose the best numbers for the lowest price. Period.

Judge_Daniel, you have some very, very well reasoned arguments, but this is one I think may be somewhat debatable. While I quite agree on the numbers thing, I think the numbers the average consumer will actually look at (not phone geeks like us) is the clockspeed of the processor, not necessarily whether or not it's single- or dual-core. They generally don't know or care about things like the difference between a Snapdragon and a Hummingbird, for example. Case in point; I can't tell you how many of my relatives have gone out and bought a Pentium Dual-Core machine because it was less expensive and the clockspeed on the tag was higher than the Core i3 or i5 sitting next to it. I simply don't think your Average Joe is as hung up on the details of the specs or architecture as we are. I believe they'll most likely go for what performs and feels better to them when they actually use it and seems like the best overall deal based on a basic set of numbers. Just my theory, anyway.

 

[Judge_Daniel]

Judge_Daniel, you have some very, very well reasoned arguments, but this is one I think may be somewhat debatable. While I quite agree on the numbers thing, I think the numbers the average consumer will actually look at (not phone geeks like us) is the clockspeed of the processor, not necessarily whether or not it's single- or dual-core. They generally don't know or care about things like the difference between a Snapdragon and a Hummingbird, for example. Case in point; I can't tell you how many of my relatives have gone out and bought a Pentium Dual-Core machine because it was less expensive and the clockspeed on the tag was higher than the Core i3 or i5 sitting next to it. I simply don't think your Average Joe is as hung up on the details of the specs or architecture as we are. I believe they'll most likely go for what performs and feels better to them when they actually use it and seems like the best overall deal based on a basic set of numbers. Just my theory, anyway.

Thanks for the feedback. However, I was actually speaking out of experience on that one. This past August, my sister wanted to move from a dumbphone to a smartphone and so of course she came to me for help. Verizon is the only carrier that has continuous coverage around her area (and specifically at her home), so she was and is stuck with Big Red. Because of this, I suggested the Trophy. Well, she came to me one day with a piece of paper with specs of the Trophy, the Thunderbolt, and the iPhone all side by side. Apparently Verizon's website has that feature now. I had the hardest time explaining to her why WP makes up for the shortcomings in processor, camera, screen, 3G, etc. While many of these will no longer be a problem, that discussion has pretty much scarred me, lol. The fact that no Verizon store around my area carries a Trophy in-house didn't help, either...

 

[psychotron]

Ouch. Did she eventually go with the Trophy, or no? I'm still trying to decipher why Android has seen so much success (outside the proliferation of dozens of handsets in the market). MS really needs to find a way to motivate more people to give WP a chance. I have four family members who have played with my Focus now and at least two of them are considering it as their next phone when their hardware upgrade comes around next month. I also actually thought about one thing last night that hasn't been pointed out yet, at least that I've seen so far, that MS (and Apple for that matter) have over Android, and that's an "end to end" solution. Whereas MS has Zune and Apple has iTunes for easy access and transfer of movies, music, etc. Android has no such ecosystem. You'd think that would be a bit of a turn off for most people, wouldn't you? Wonder why that doesn't play into people's purchasing decision a little more than it does.

 

[smartpatrol]

I think specs aren't really important for a lot of people, or at least the CPU/RAM aren't. I think the most important spec is 4G, which thankfully these new Mango phones have.

The Incredible 2, Thunderbolt, Bionic, and of course iPhone 4 have been selling like hotcakes. They all have weaker specs than the Titan.

Don't get me wrong. As a computer geek, I'd love to see WP7 on some cutting edge dual-core CPUs. I just don't think it's that important to the average smartphone buyer.

Sent from my HD7 using Board Express

 

[psychotron]

I think the most important spec is 4G, which thankfully these new Mango phones have.

Oddly enough, as geeky as I am this is one of the least important specs to me aside from a front facing camera (which I really have no use for). All it really means to me is that I'd be able to burn through my monthly data allowance that much faster.

 

[Reflexx]

Ouch. Did she eventually go with the Trophy, or no? I'm still trying to decipher why Android has seen so much success (outside the proliferation of dozens of handsets in the market). MS really needs to find a way to motivate more people to give WP a chance. I have four family members who have played with my Focus now and at least two of them are considering it as their next phone when their hardware upgrade comes around next month. I also actually thought about one thing last night that hasn't been pointed out yet, at least that I've seen so far, that MS (and Apple for that matter) have over Android, and that's an "end to end" solution. Whereas MS has Zune and Apple has iTunes for easy access and transfer of movies, music, etc. Android has no such ecosystem. You'd think that would be a bit of a turn off for most people, wouldn't you? Wonder why that doesn't play into people's purchasing decision a little more than it does.

I think there are 3 main reasons for Android's success.

1. An OEM could throw it on everything. You see super cheap handsets and high end handsets running Android.

2. It appeared to be free for OEMs.

3. The Motorola Droid campaign. And how "Droid" sounds a lot like "Android". Consumers associated all Android phones with the Droid.

 

[psychotron]

2. It appeared to be free for OEMs.

Well, that one's pretty much gone by the wayside since MS has strongarmed just about all the major players except Moto (and rumor has it they're even in talks with Samsung about it at this very moment) into a patent deal.

 

[ikkf]

Could it be that MSFT is taking a Sun Tzu approach and choosing its battles for the time being? Maybe it realizes that Android has so much momentum that trying to meet it head-on would be a waste of resources. Possibly it's waiting for some sort of 'Android fatigue' to set in before it makes its big move? It would explain what seems like a slow but sure buildup, what with the march to Mango and eventually Nokia, and this HTC release could be the first shot across the bow?

Sorry for all the silly martial references. I've been reading a book that involves lots of medieval warfare.

 

[Judge_Daniel]

3. The Motorola Droid campaign. And how "Droid" sounds a lot like "Android". Consumers associated all Android phones with the Droid.

I agree with this point tremendously. I can still remember people talking about the original ad and saying how great the phone was going to be. I'm sure I speak for every MS-follower when I say that they need to really step it up in the advertising department.

 

[DrBatman]

First post guys (so go easy).

Had a read and thought I'd throw my own thoughts into the pot.
I think the biggest failings for Microsoft in terms of gaining marketshare has been down mainly to the marketing side of things (both in mainstream media and with carriers/stores). There wasn't much in the way of advertising on television, newspapers or even internet in the months leading up to (and months after) the release of the initial devices. Say what you want about Google and Apple but their operating systems were and continue to be everywhere (obviously I could go off on a rant about Apple having most of the tech journos in their pocket but I'm playing nice).
If we start looking at carriers and stores which carry devices, we are faced with sales staff who are either not trained properly, being pushed to sell whatever Android phone they have exclusivity with, or just plain ol' bias. I know Microsoft have been looking into the training issue so hopefully that'll help with future releases but time will tell.
Also, don't underestimate the power of the pissing contest that you get on Android. Average Joe walks into a shop wanting "a smartphone". He will have no idea about how much better optimized WP is on devices but will see "Android phone X has a 6" screen, 8 core processor and a bajillion ram" for a similar price to a 1.4 singlecore WP and the choice is made... "MOAR IS TEH WINNEH!!".

Now while that's my negative take about the platform, I am optimistic on the whole (I've ordered my Omnia 7 which I should pick up in just under 2 weeks...buying tech when living in South America is a pain in the anus).
The integration of WP and Windows shouldn't be underestimated. Looking at what they're doing with Windows 8, Xbox Live, and even with Mango, Microsoft could end up delivering the kind of experience which Steve Jobs had been talking about (with the iCloud), but with a far wider range of products.
The Google-Motorola deal has a lot of handset makers worried and looking at other options. Samsung has Bada as a fallback position if Google start messing folk about (i.e. giving Motorola a compeitive advantage). But other manufacturers like LG, HTC, Sony Ericsson could be left looking for alternatives. I like webOS but it has failed under two different managements...it would be a huge risk. This leaves WP. Add in the fees manufacturers pay Microsoft to release Android phones and we have a potential for MS to come in and sweep up.

There are some things I would like to see for the platform to increase in popularity but we'll have to wait a bit.
For the US market, there needs to be some sort of killer LTE device which can go toe to toe with the flagship Android (and rumoured LTE iPhone). While there is no phone equipped with that, it's too easy for people to argue that it is old tech.
While the lack of fragmentation in WP is a good "pro" to have, we have a situation where manufacturers are unable to release innovative products (3D might be a gimmick but HTC and LG getting models out with the cameras and glasses-free screens gives consumers more choice (and the sales staff more selling points).
There needs to be more high-profile ad campaigns across multiple markets. They have some good ideas in this respect but should be screaming it out. Take, for example, Brandon Watson and his tweet to webOS devs offering them all they needed to make the jump from a dead platform. A brilliant idea; it potentially increases the number of people making apps for your ecosystem and makes MS look like they're "looking out for the little guy". They should be sticking a full page in your daily newspapers with this offer. They also should be trying to get WP devices in the hands of famous people... rightly or wrongly, celebrities are seen as role models by some and seeing a WP in the hands of some big singer would make a difference (NB: don't make the mistake of getting Russell Brand to do your ads...only for Katy Perry to come out and go on about how they talk using Facetime on iPad).

Anyways... I've rambled enough on this (if you made it this far, you're a masochist).

 

[psychotron]

Looking at what they're doing with Windows 8, Xbox Live, and even with Mango, Microsoft could end up delivering the kind of experience which Steve Jobs had been talking about (with the iCloud), but with a far wider range of products.

I remember thinking the exact same thing yesterday while watching the BUILD keynote and the demos that followed. As the revelation of what they were creating really started to dawn on me, in my mind I shouted "My god! They've done it!". And by "done it" I mean developed something that could evolve into the most ubiquitous technology environment to date, essentially that they may have out-Appled Apple.

 

[cckgz4]

Microsoft is incorporating Metro UI into it's next Computer OS update. It's not going anywhere. Point. Blank. Period