I believe that the market will be more stable in a few years. I don't see Apple, Google, or MS failing. I expect each of them to control over 25% of the market. With them going back and forth over which controls over 30%. And at time, 2 or even all 3 may hold 30%.
There will always be the niche market. And I actually wouldn't be that surprised to see Samsung try to make a push with Bada.