Lumia 920 to be the next leader ?

[Gaichuke]

To everyone doubting Nokia's strategy to go exclusive with carriers, how can you voice your opinion without knowing anything about the conditions and commitments involved in those deals? Do you seriously thinking Nokia does these kind of decisions without extensive research and thorough consideration?

Nokia has whole teams of people doing strategy research for Lumia line and unlike me or you, they have all the relevant data in the world and their experience in their disposal to make much more informed decision than we ever could. Trust me, they have calculated and re-calculated the numbers many, many times before making that decision.

I do not know about you, but when I find that I clearly don't know enough about the topic, I disregard whatever my intuition tells me and listen what the man who does it for a living has to say.

 

[brmiller1976]

To everyone doubting Nokia's strategy to go exclusive with carriers, how can you voice your opinion without knowing anything about the conditions and commitments involved in those deals?

"Exclusive" means "not readily available except in certain circumstances." If the goal is saturation of the market and maximum sales, it is -- by definition -- the wrong strategy.

Do you seriously thinking Nokia does these kind of decisions without extensive research and thorough consideration?

I'm sure they did, just like they did for the Lumia 900 launch on AT&T in the USA. Not a bad phone (though mine had a lousy failure rate) -- did it set the world on fire? Nope. It was actually a sales flop.

The definition of insanity is trying the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results.

Nokia has whole teams of people doing strategy research for Lumia line and unlike me or you, they have all the relevant data in the world and their experience in their disposal to make much more informed decision than we ever could.

Expertise is established not only by self-described experts, but also results.

How successful has Nokia been in the smartphone space in the USA using the carrier exclusive model, to date? How successful has Lumia been in the USA using the carrier exclusive model, to date? Can you point out any one of the handful of smartphone vendors who still use the carrier exclusive model in the last 24 months who has been successful with it?

Claiming expertise only works if you've got the goods -- read results -- to back it up. So far, Nokia's strategy in the USA has not been successful, and claiming that repeating the same strategy with a "this time it will be different" belief strikes me as silly. If major US players like HTC and Motorola have failed, why would a teeny tiny player like Nokia (from a US perspective) find success with it?

Trust me, they have calculated and re-calculated the numbers many, many times before making that decision.

Are you suggesting they didn't do so with the Lumia 900 launch? That they've suddenly decided to do things differently?

I do not know about you, but when I find that I clearly don't know enough about the topic, I disregard whatever my intuition tells me and listen what the man who does it for a living has to say.

Then I suggest calling my ex-broker at JPMorgan who suggested I buy eToys, Pets.com and MotherNature.com stock at the IPO price. He recommends stocks for a living, so he must be an expert who knows just what to do.

Seriously, the best measure of whether a strategy will work isn't nebulous "experience" -- especially from a team that has underperformed so badly that its stock is near penny-stock pricing and its bond ratings are well into junk territory. It is perfectly reasonable to be skeptical in such circumstances.

The best measure of whether a strategy will work is seeing how it has been executed so far in terms of results in the market (the USA). For Nokia, few could argue the score is great or even acceptable in the USA (to be charitable).

The other measure -- which is perfectly reasonable -- is to ask "as a smartphone buyer, would I go along with what Nokia is planning and purchase a mid-tier phone from them over a top-tier competing phone on my carrier, or switch to a more-expensive plan from someone else to get their top phone?" Most people would answer "no."

Finally, you can contrast the current failing strategy with the ones of Samsung and Apple -- the two market leaders. They both offer the same top-tier device across most or all major US carriers. The manufacturers who have offered other carrier exclusives -- like Motorola, Sony, and Kyocera -- are shrinking and in financial trouble.

Consider that Samsung is likely to emulate its incredibly successful Galaxy S III strategy with the ATIV S. Consider that HTC may as well. And then look at Nokia's efforts to stick with the same "device exclusive" strategy of Motorola, Sony, and Kyocera.

"Look at the numbers and do the calculations." And tell me what the likely outcome is.

And make no mistake, the outcome is important, especially given the WP community's strange insistence on making Nokia (and only Nokia) a proxy for the success of Windows Phone. If Nokia delivers more of the same disappointing US Lumia sales, the message in the press won't be "Nokia struggles," it will be "Windows Phone continues to struggle."

 

[brmiller1976]

China Mobile serves 600 million people. AT&T Wireless serves about 40-50% of American wireless customers. The Lumia 920 will fail not because of carrier exclusivity.

Let's look at the US market.

AT&T's share of the US wireless market postpaid market is 34% (according to NPD).

Assuming they convert 10% of their addressable market, that's only 3.4% share for Nokia's flagship in the USA.

If they offered the device on every major wireless carrier and converted 10% of their addressable market, their market share would be 10% -- almost 3x as much as a carrier exclusive alone.

Which track do you think would make investors, developers, and consumers happier?

 

[Reflexx]

Not all OEMs are on equal footing with carriers. Some, like Apple and Samsung, have a lot of clout and power. Others, like Nokia, aren't in a very strong bargaining position.

Do people actually believe that Nokia execs are sitting in a room telling each other, "Let's try to limit which carriers can have access to our phones, because that will mean more customers!" Of course not.

 

[brmiller1976]

Nokia likely has more bargaining power than it thinks.

Samsung didn't just charge in and attain it -- they built it over time.

Even when they offered "carrier exclusives" (in the original Galaxy S days), the "Vibrant" and "Captivate" and "Epic" and "Fascinate" were all the same phone (and everyone knew it). There's no reason Nokia couldn't go down the same path and offer the "Fabulous" for Verizon, the "Awesome" for AT&T, the "Amazing" for Sprint and the "Vavavavoom" for T-Mo (with all of them being a 920).

Creative thinking is required to disrupt markets -- more of the same won't cut it.

 

[anon(5335877)]

Nokia likely has more bargaining power than it thinks.

Samsung didn't just charge in and attain it -- they built it over time.

Even when they offered "carrier exclusives" (in the original Galaxy S days), the "Vibrant" and "Captivate" and "Epic" and "Fascinate" were all the same phone (and everyone knew it). There's no reason Nokia couldn't go down the same path and offer the "Fabulous" for Verizon, the "Awesome" for AT&T, the "Amazing" for Sprint and the "Vavavavoom" for T-Mo (with all of them being a 920).

Creative thinking is required to disrupt markets -- more of the same won't cut it.

Read the comments--pretty much everyone has mentioned Lumia 920. Not Samsung, not HTC, the Lumia 920. They don't want the 820. I'm going to be really disappointed if the 920 launches on only one carrier in the US.

 

[brmiller1976]

Understood. I simply think Nokia should do "branded carrier exclusive" versions of the 920 across each carrier, all at once, like Sammy did with the Galaxy S. That gives the carriers their "exclusives" and Nokia access to the entire market.

Contrary to the claims of some, I would certainly consider a 920 on my carrier. It concerns me that Nokia isn't planning on delivering it, however.

 

[Mio_Ray]

I simply do not undersand the American model in this. (or rather, I understand why it was introduced. But there are better options)

Up untill a few years ago we could also buy subsidised hendsets from our carriers. But since the carriers are only allowed to tie us to a 6 month contract that became difficult when handset prices rose to more than 400?.

Instead the carriers offered decent plans at fair prices, like 30? a month. Then they also offered financing the handset at (almost 0%) fair rates over 12/24 or 36 months.

It ment true turnover for the carrier without having to subsidise the handset, and the customers could select just the phone they want and be contract free after 6 months. Albeit You would off course still have to pay the financing part the remaining 6/18/30 months.

In the beginning there was a lot of noise about not being able to buy phones the old way, but as it turned out. No carrier in Denmark is using Sim-Locks anymore, because it doesnt matter. So handset can be nbought freely everywhere at competitive prices.

A least I like this a lot better.

The handset producers will push their stuff; the Handsets

The Carrier will push their stuff; The Plans, prices, coverage etc.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[brmiller1976]

US carriers are all about lock-in as a differentiator rather than service quality, pricing, voice quality, data speeds, etc.

 

[anon(5335877)]

I simply do not undersand the American model in this. (or rather, I understand why it was introduced. But there are better options)

Up untill a few years ago we could also buy subsidised hendsets from our carriers. But since the carriers are only allowed to tie us to a 6 month contract that became difficult when handset prices rose to more than 400?.

Instead the carriers offered decent plans at fair prices, like 30? a month. Then they also offered financing the handset at (almost 0%) fair rates over 12/24 or 36 months.

It ment true turnover for the carrier without having to subsidise the handset, and the customers could select just the phone they want and be contract free after 6 months. Albeit You would off course still have to pay the financing part the remaining 6/18/30 months.

In the beginning there was a lot of noise about not being able to buy phones the old way, but as it turned out. No carrier in Denmark is using Sim-Locks anymore, because it doesnt matter. So handset can be nbought freely everywhere at competitive prices.

A least I like this a lot better.

The handset producers will push their stuff; the Handsets

The Carrier will push their stuff; The Plans, prices, coverage etc.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Because Americans can't do math!

Haha, no, I'm kidding. It's just how it's always been done here, I can't remember why. But because of the iPhone being so expensive to subsidize, carriers are now trying to rethink this. Figures, only when it affects their profits do they care about something.

My question is what ensures that people will still pay back the "loan" on their financed handset if they're contract free after six months?

 

[anon(5335877)]

US carriers are all about lock-in as a differentiator rather than service quality, pricing, voice quality, data speeds, etc.

I just saw this. Yeah, you're right. They like to lock people into two year contracts and have networks that are incompatible with each others' phones so it's hard for you to switch carriers. That way, they don't have to compete on all of the above (which means spending more money on their network).

 

[Old_Cus]

Yes it's very heavy compared to the iPhone 5. That will be a huge knock against it. It's heavier then the Galaxy S3 too.

Huge knock?

Weight didn't keep the L900 for outselling the Focus S.

 

[jusdis]

I used an iPhone 4s for 30 days and whenever I dropped it my heart would race. I've watched my Lumia 900 bounce down a small flight of stairs and land face down, and had not a concern into the world. Heavy, solid, works for me.

 

[steve_w_7]

I love this discussion!

Although I think the 920 is going to end up being the best WP8 option (I have always liked HTC's hardware, but I don't think anything they show us on Wednesday will match what the 920 brings to the table), I am not willing to switch carriers to AT&T to get it.

For TMo, that leaves the 820 (presumably), the ATIV and whatever HTC brings. In my opinion, the 820 isn't worth considering. I'd rather have the high-end handset from Samsung or HTC than a mid-range Nokia device, but that's just me.

Nokia should bend over backwards to get their flagship phone in the hands of as many WP users as they possibly can. With such a small slice of smartphone marketshare, it doesn't make sense to go with a single carrier.

At this point in the game, Nokia should do everything they can to be inclusive rather than exclusive.

 

[anon(5335877)]

Read the comments--pretty much everyone has mentioned Lumia 920. Not Samsung, not HTC, the Lumia 920. They don't want the 820. I'm going to be really disappointed if the 920 launches on only one carrier in the US.

Wow, I just reread my above post and realized the LINK I wanted to include of the article where I wanted everyone to read comments isn't even there! LOL.

It was here:

What will it take for you to switch to Windows Phone 8? | PhoneDog

But I guess it pretty much applied everywhere. You heard the Nokia mentioned more often than you do the HTC or the Samsung.

 

[scottcraft]

Read the comments--pretty much everyone has mentioned Lumia 920. Not Samsung, not HTC, the Lumia 920. They don't want the 820. I'm going to be really disappointed if the 920 launches on only one carrier in the US.

I want the 920 on Verizon too. I MIGHT settle for the 820, but if Verizon offers the 920 I will get one for a fact. With just the 820 available I will look very hard at HTC and Samsung's offerings.

 

[trivor]

Too Heavy Lumia 920

Yes it's very heavy compared to the iPhone 5. That will be a huge knock against it. It's heavier then the Galaxy S3 too.

Actually according the Specs I saw it's one of the heaviest smartphones on the market. The Samsung GS3 is 4.7 oz, the HTC Rezound is 6.0 oz (I found this to be quite heavy), iPhone 4 4.8oz, iPhone 4S 4.9 oz, iPhone 5 3.88oz, and the Lumia 920 6.52 oz - when you pick this up and compare it to the ANY of the other phones you will notice the weight - I eliminated the HTC Rezound from my list of phones 10 months ago because of weight - it was too damn heavy for a phone.

 

[lordofthereef]

The 920 could be the next big thing (though not bigger than iPhone at this stage in the game), but a few things need to happen:

1) They need to launch this thing yesterday. If they want to pull from the crowd of people on the fence about the iPhone, they need to act fast. I realize they are waiting on the green light from MS, but that is irrelevant in terms of sales.

2) They need to get these devices on all carriers... do what it takes. Exclusivity is ridiculous. People aren't willing to pay huge ETFs to jump ship just for a device.

 

[Simon Tupper]

I don't believe it is... it's a cool phone but WP is not "cool" enough to create a huge buzz

 

[brmiller1976]

Weight didn't keep the L900 for outselling the Focus S.

Lack of 4G did, though.