Windows Phone 8. Does it even have a chance to succeed?

[ryude]

Windows Phone doesn't fail because it is bad, it fails because it is too far ahead of it's time. It needs to provide functionality of today, not tomorrow. People aren't asking for much, they only want the basics that have been a part of Android and iOS for 2+ years.

The app quality problem is not due to poor developer tools or poor API support, but the developers themselves do not want to invest the time it takes to create a really great app if they aren't going to recoup even 50% of the cost it took to make it.

MS needs to put up a feedback program like Steam's Greenlight. Let people vote on ideas/functionality that they want the most and then provide it in the next update. Boom, you just suddenly solved 90% of peoples problem with Windows Phone.

 

[viedit]

In order for it to succeed it's going to have to combine the long term device support of Apple and the rapid improvement of Android. And those updates are going to have to be available to end users quickly and easily. I'm a recent convert to the WP8 platform having purchased a Lumia 920 this past weekend. I'm very, very close to returning it because of a overwhelming number of issues that on their own could be forgivable, but added together are just a frustrating experience.

Some of it is the OS/environment itself. Some of it is the hardware of the phone. Some it is the app development by Nokia. Added together I was ready to throw the thing in the box and return it.

Microsoft and the OEM's cannot afford to sit on their heels and churn out annual or longer updates. They have to come fast, they have to provide significant improvements and function, and most importantly they have to work.

There's so many little basic UI functions that could have (should have) been added in WP8 that aren't there. Things as simple as a "tap to top" when browsing web pages, a forward button, notification centers, a fix for the wifi bug on the lock screen, better availability of the SKD prior to launch to actually have apps available, ect. This wasn't a mystery launch. This thing had close to a year of momentum leading up to release at the end of October. The lack of quality 1st party apps at launch is a huge disservice to those on the fence with the platform.

Then combine it with quality issues with flagship models like the 920 and you leave a very bitter taste in the mouth of buyers. WP was already at life support levels of acceptance. MS & OEM's simply can not afford to stumble out of the gates even if this is a marathon. iOS and Android have such a massive head start that they were practically lapping WP from the opening lap.

WP really is a lovely OS and is an enjoyable experience in many areas. But I feel that it was either too rushed or put into development too late to really give it what it needed to be a viable option to the masses of iPhone users or Android converts. The marketing was too late. The apps are too late. The initial hardware has too many QA issues. Ect.

The initial announcement and release was a convoluted disaster.

While I agree with the "marathon" vs. "sprint" you have to understand that MS is in a much different position than Apple or Android. When Apple came out with the iPhone it was a very different market. It was really different device. Android had the luxury of being "not apple" and catering to tinkerers, developers, cheap markets, and has had a massive aggressive hardware and software development cycle. WP is not in either of those positions. The hurdles to overcome are incredible and the fumbled release is not doing any favors. With as little market share that WP already has the problems are going to further alienate the platform and it will eventually have the plug pulled.

I don't care about the top 50 apps and the couple that are missing. It's the next 1000+ that are still used by 10's of thousands of people instead of 10's of millions that give the variety to an ecosystem. The Kid Zone is a great idea...except outside of Angry Birds and Fruit Ninja there are very, very few quality education and younger children oriented applications of any quality in the WP market to put in it.

MS needed to have a huge number of quality 1st party apps on hand and shower developers with money to do it to have a worthy portfolio of applications available at launch.

The major hardware OEM's are Nokia and HTC. Both of those companies are in very bad financial shape. I don't know how long they can survive the WP "marathon" if their devices fail to live up to hype/expectations. Past them you've got Samsung who has the financial freedom to toss out a WP but their hearts aren't really in it. If WP8 flops they are still making money hand over fist in the Android market and they'll simply close the door on MS development.

It's a shame. But I agree with an earlier poster that Android is eventually going to consume most of the market in sales, profits, users, ect. Apple will eventually start to contract as the Android devices become more desirable, the OS more usable, and the app market continues to mature. As much as I'd like to see MS as a player in the long term mobile market, it's just not happening.

Too little. Too late. Too bad.

 

[tomatoes11]

I agree that this holiday season is hopeless but if they stick with it and work hard they have a fighters chance in a year or two, especially if Windows RT and Windows 8 pro takes off. Let's change gears a little.

How about RIM? Does slow and steady wins the race applies to them still or do they need as much money as Microsoft to eventually stop the bleeding?

 

[brmiller1976]

The marketshare wars tire me.

All the Apple fanboys out there who blabber about smartphone marketshare today wouldn't accept that the Macintosh is "dead" because it has less than 3% global share.

Android hard-core users weren't dissuaded by the G1's exclusivity on T-Mobile and the lack of apps and sales it initially had.

In the end, it's about three things:

1) Does it let you do what you want to do (yes);
2) Is it better FOR YOU than other alternatives (definitely);
3) Will it continue to sell enough units to get support from the vendor (absolutely).

 

[1jaxstate1]

Why do they tire you? Because MS is on the bottom?

The Mac was dead until MS threw them a bone. Its still low market share, but their profits margins are very high, so it makes it worth their time.

The G1 was an god awful phone. But it caught on dude to the openness. I hated the G1, but the people who had them loved it.

 

[SnailUK]

MS needs to put up a feedback program like Steam's Greenlight. Let people vote on ideas/functionality that they want the most and then provide it in the next update. Boom, you just suddenly solved 90% of peoples problem with Windows Phone.

There is already such a thing.

Feature Suggestions: Hot (17697 ideas)

People don't use it properly (theres like hundreds of posts about bluetooth, rather than one with hundreds of votes).

Its also full of requests for apps, which Microsoft have no influence over.

Its an interesting read, but if they implemented everything, you'd just be basically using Android. It'll do everything ever, but the performance would suffer as a concequence of having to do every conseivable thing someone could want.

 

[jwinch2]

I think WP8 will be very successful. Already, a number of people I know are interested. Heck some of my students at the university I teach at are buying the Surface or another Windows Tablet instead of the iPhone or an Android. They like the fresh interface and heck, their parents all have iPhones now so they are looking for something different.

Some here are suggesting that this is a marathon and not a sprint, and I agree for the most part. However, Windows Phone has this time when they need to push, and push hard. The iPhone 5 has not been as impressive as people were expecting and Samsung has been hitting them hard in the advertisement world. Android's newest major update to the OS was several months back and it will be a while before they make another major leap. Blackberry 10 is supposed to come out Jan 2013.

One of the biggest things holding them back right now is the one everyone knows about, apps. They need quality apps. Microsoft should be approaching the developers of the most popular apps on iOS and Android and getting them interested in app development for WP8. They quite literally should be looking to see what are the 20 most popular, highly rated, and widely used apps in every single app category on iOS and Android and pay those developers to create a version for WP8 which takes advantage of the live tiles and integrates with the system properly. We need to see an exponential increase in the number of quality apps that actually expand or refine the capability of the platform, not just BS junk apps, of which there are far too many on all platforms.

So, between now and Jan, Microsoft, Nokia, HTC, Samsung, etc. need to pretend they are in a sprint. If they can gain some market share now and through the holidays, it will pay dividends going forward.

 

[1jaxstate1]

Q3 reveals growth in the smartphone market, for Samsung and Apple. Samsung now sells more smartphones than feature phones and dumb phone.
Smartphone sales: Q3 reveals growth led by Android and Samsung | BGR

 

[aubreyq]

...I still think the wp8 launch is the worse launch I ever seen.

Amen, brother. No way anyone can spin that into a positive launch.

 

[sinime]

It may have been a crap launch, but at least Nokia Is selling more Lumias than they expected to at launch... http://www.windowscentral.com/lumia-920-windows-phone-demand-passes-expec

 

[ryude]

There is already such a thing.

Feature Suggestions: Hot (17697 ideas)

People don't use it properly (theres like hundreds of posts about bluetooth, rather than one with hundreds of votes).

Its also full of requests for apps, which Microsoft have no influence over.

Its an interesting read, but if they implemented everything, you'd just be basically using Android. It'll do everything ever, but the performance would suffer as a concequence of having to do every conseivable thing someone could want.

Having more functionality isn't the reason why Android is laggy. Android itself is written in C, which is a very fast language. The apps are written in Java and run inside of a VM called Dalvik. Virtual Machines use a lot of resources and we all know ARM processors aren't the fastest in the world. WP8 is also written in C, but the apps are written in C (as well as other languages that can run natively). Another reason why Android is laggy is because they don't restrict what a developer can do, it has nothing to do with Android's built-in features/functionality.

 

[Old_Cus]

It may have been a crap launch, but at least Nokia Is selling more Lumias than they expected to at launch... Telstra: Lumia 920 Windows Phone demand smashes expectations | Windows Phone Central

Something?s been bothering me about this and I finally figured it out. No one has mentioned numbers. How many 920?s were sold on the first day? How many 920?s and 820?s were on hand for preorder? How many WP8 devices were on hand at AT&T stores on launch day?

I fell in love with WP a year ago and like many of you I have watched this platform evolve. More important I have seen interest grow as more and more people become aware of what windows phone is and what it can do. Yes it does take time and I think reasonable people realize this and are willing to give Microsoft and the OEMs the time to grow the platform and market share.


With that said I couldn?t be more disappointed with the WP8 launch. First tease announcements that gave very little if any information about a new OS. Lame product announcements that again gave the public little (can anyone tell me just what Samsung is doing with WP8?) Everything pointed to the OS not being ready on time but no one would admit it. And the result? It appears that there is not nearly enough phones to accommodate the demand. Yes stores and preorder are sold out but far too many people either can?t find phones or are canceling their orders because of delays. These are customers that should have WP8 devices in their hands and showing them off to their friends and family. This is how you grow a product. I don?t know where the fault lies and I really don?t care. All I know is that a major opportunity is being missed.

I sincerely hope that Window Phone 8 succeeds but unless all parties involved get their collective acts together success will come in spite of them. I guess we'll have to wait until next year to see what 4th quarter numbers will be.

 

[brmiller1976]

Why do they tire you? Because MS is on the bottom?

No, because they're useless as a measure of actual utility of the device.

Marketshare arguments are all about "mine is bigger than yours." Completely irrelevant if you buy a device to actually DO things (rather than get reassurance for "going with the crowd.")

It's a stupid reason to buy ANY tech platform.

If Microsoft roars to 75% share in mobile and dominates in marketshare as a result, that's STILL a stupid reason to buy a Windows Phone.

 

[phonegeeks]

Gartner's mobile market reports already reported that the mobile market could have very well turned into a duopoly. In these trying times, all that could really save WP8 from joining its forefathers in history is an intensive app development program incentivized by Microsoft. Also, I have read the a few things here and there but I am still not perfectly sure why Lumia 920 is exclusive to AT&T.

 

[jwinch2]

Gartner's mobile market reports already reported that the mobile market could have very well turned into a duopoly. In these trying times, all that could really save WP8 from joining its forefathers in history is an intensive app development program incentivized by Microsoft.

Agreed, 100%. MS needs to heavily incentivize app development. BB is showing the way perhaps. http://www.gsmnation.com/blog/2012/11/13/why-blackberry-10-will-have-the-best-app-games-of-2012/

Also, I have read the a few things here and there but I am still not perfectly sure why Lumia 920 is exclusive to AT&T.

I'm not sure either, particularly considering the manner in which ATT has bungled the release.

 

[jsk0703]

I think they will steadily gain as time goes by. Just because the product doesn't explode on day 1 doesn't mean much. Not everyone will break contract or buy out of contract to get the phone. It's the people buying new service or are due for an upgrade, that is where the potential exists.

The Zune didn't become a huge hit despite being a very good product, especially the Zune HD. But if Microsoft can do what it did with Xbox then things will be interesting in a couple years.

As far as AT&T goes, it sort of makes sense for them to snag the Nokia 920 exclusively. Years ago they had the stranglehold on iPhone. Now every carrier has it practically. Verizon still seems to be in bed with the Motorola Droid lineup. So IMO AT&T needs something to set itself apart.

 

[mparker]

Having more functionality isn't the reason why Android is laggy. Android itself is written in C, which is a very fast language. The apps are written in Java and run inside of a VM called Dalvik. Virtual Machines use a lot of resources and we all know ARM processors aren't the fastest in the world. WP8 is also written in C, but the apps are written in C (as well as other languages that can run natively). Another reason why Android is laggy is because they don't restrict what a developer can do, it has nothing to do with Android's built-in features/functionality.

Actually WP8 and Android are more similar than different in this respect. Most Android apps are written in Java and run inside a VM, but some apps (mostly games) are written in native-compiled C. Similarly, most WP8 apps are written in C# and run inside a VM, but some apps (mostly games) are written in native-compiled C. Whatever it is that makes Android laggy (and it has gotten better in recent versions) it's not due to VM vs native code. It could be their VM is just very inefficient, but it's not due to anything inherent to VM's in general.

FWIW, almost all apps for the iPhone are written in native-compiled C (Objective-C). Even MonoTouch (a C# development system for the iPhone used by a handful of apps) compiles the C# source code to native ARM instructions for the iPhone.

 

[ryude]

Actually WP8 and Android are more similar than different in this respect. Most Android apps are written in Java and run inside a VM, but some apps (mostly games) are written in native-compiled C. Similarly, most WP8 apps are written in C# and run inside a VM, but some apps (mostly games) are written in native-compiled C. Whatever it is that makes Android laggy (and it has gotten better in recent versions) it's not due to VM vs native code. It could be their VM is just very inefficient, but it's not due to anything inherent to VM's in general.

FWIW, almost all apps for the iPhone are written in native-compiled C (Objective-C). Even MonoTouch (a C# development system for the iPhone used by a handful of apps) compiles the C# source code to native ARM instructions for the iPhone.

You're right, I was just trying to get the point across that Android itself is not laggy due to it's functionality.

 

[brmiller1976]

Gartner's mobile market reports already reported that the mobile market could have very well turned into a duopoly. In these trying times, all that could really save WP8 from joining its forefathers in history is an intensive app development program incentivized by Microsoft. Also, I have read the a few things here and there but I am still not perfectly sure why Lumia 920 is exclusive to AT&T.

Right. And Gartner also predicted that the Macintosh would be discontinued by 1999 and that Apple would be building boxes running Windows NT or Solaris, which would be the only two major computer operating systems.

No market in tech is ever closed to innovation and market opportunity.

 

[X0LARIUM]

Responding to the OP,

MS needs to play on its strengths: Security, native app development (for developers) and the overall ease of use in the OS.

Instead what it is doing is focusing on making people aware of how "You" centric it is. All phones do that. What different are you doing?

Like it or not, I think it boils down to advertising. Now by that I don't mean just commercials. I mean word-a-mouth too.

It has by far the best OS security I have seen (or liked) on any platform. Show me one person who doesn't like a secured device. I have to go through heaps and heaps of pages from one forum to another to know how amazingly secured the OS is. MS needs to tell people about that. FB isn't everyone's reason to pick a WP8. Security definitely is.

Ease of use: The OS is so simple, it takes just 1 day to understand it throughout. Why? Cause it is designed in such a way that it responds to you in the SAME way everywhere.

People need to be told about all this. See how it becomes an instant hit.
There is no written formula to be successful anywhere. Markets change, people change, times change.

Innovation is what people are looking for. Simplicity in this life is now a rarity. And that's exactly what MS has. In abundance.

Sent from my RaZr HD.