11-13-2012, 01:09 PM #1
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Okay, let's put away our fan boy goggles and be as objective as possible about this. With Apple not being able to keep up with iphone 5 orders, the GS3 still selling strong, and the Nexus 4 selling out in minutes:
How well will Windows Phone 8 do this holiday season? Discuss.
I say not very well, with the vibes I feel for it in Canada at least.
- 11-13-2012, 01:27 PM #2
You are thinking in the short-term. Expand your perception out a few years. That's where MSFT is looking. To them, this is just the starting point.
You may end up being surprised however. The Surface has created a lot of buzz around the Win 8 environment. Any salesperson worth their salt would pickup on this trend and have people loaded up with a Surface, WP8 device, and an XBox. Plus a copy or two of Win 8 for the old desktops / laptops.
- 11-13-2012, 01:30 PM #5
I certainly don't expect WP8 devices to outsell the iphone 5 , Galaxy S3 or the Note 2 this holiday season, but I think they will do well. As others have said this is a long-term race, so WP8 doesn't have to sell as well as the others to be a success this holiday season.
- 11-13-2012, 01:34 PM #7
Don't matter. At the rate Android is going, I think everyone is going to play second fiddler to them. MS might be out of their league in the cellphone market. Maybe give a WP device free with a Surface/XBOX/Windows8 PC purchase. Apple will soon start to decline. But google is going to be the one that gobbles up it's marketshare. The amount of new activations they have daily is staggering.
I don't know how Android because so popular, but damn, it's amazing.
- 11-13-2012, 01:46 PM #8
I was surprised when I went to the AT&T store yesterday. Not only did the staff really seem to know their stuff about WP8, I stood in line with quite a few folks who wanted to get a Lumia 920. I expected to be the geeky outsider, but it looks like WP folks were in the majority at the store.
The sales reps knew about the wireless charging pad and made customers aware of it, since some folks didn't know about it. They informed people about it, asked which color to order and got it all done. Smooth experience. I even saw a sales guy leading one guy away from the iPhone stand over to the Lumia section and he was actively advertising and trying to sell WP8.
What surprised me even more is that my iPhone loving wife switched to a Lumia 920 after playing with it for about an hour. She calls herself a person who doesn't adjust to change easily, especially with phones. The fact that she liked WP8 more or less instantly and enough to ask me to get her a Lumia 920 (and how could I say no :) is very encouraging from my point of view.
But we are at the very beginning and it will take time to gain market share.
But when I look at all the reports from all over the world, where especially the Lumia 920 sells out in record times, I am optimistic.
The more WP8 phones hit the market, the more potential there is and I think that within the next 12 months, we will see quite some growth in market share. To be a real competitor to Apple or Google will take longer than that though, but I don't see a reason why WP8 should not succeed.
The market seems to like it and all that needs to happen now is to get devices out there. There is no better advertising than seeing it in real life. My wife was first, some of my coworkers already asked me about it and the more I show them, the more they seem to like it.
It will be partially on us early adopters to make it a success.
I am in and I believe that WP will be big over the next few years :)
No fanboy here though. The platform needs to mature and especially developers need to jump on it, but I believe that both will happen.
11-13-2012, 01:51 PM #9
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I'm sure MS will catch up very quickly, they are investing huge amounts into the OS and unifying the UI between their devices (Xbox, PC, Tablet + Phones).
Their main areas to develop are apps, OS functionality (some basics are still missing like timers etc) and revisting some existing features and revamping/tweaking them.
They'll get the job done I'm positive of it. Using a Lumia 920 at the moment, and it's stunning to use, it's just missing some apps + features.
11-13-2012, 02:00 PM #10
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in the short run, yes i5,g3 and nexus4 will outsell WP8.
But looking a bit further I only see WP8 gaining momentum. Every windows 8 app will easily be made available for WP8. And with a ton of Win8 pc/tablet out there is a few months, well WP8 will also be a very attractive market.
Furthermore with WP8 a lot of companies are very interested.
At the moment we are all still first movers, but the other ordinary consumers will soon come as well. With win8 and xbox update, WP will be easily recognizable and thereby not something people will hisitate to buy. It isn't something new and underdeveloped.
11-13-2012, 02:31 PM #11
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Also, for quite a while Canadians were second-class citizens as far as services that make the WP attractive go. Too often I had conversations that included "It has Local Scout...in the States", "it has Zune Music Pass...in the States", or "If I were in the US, my Bing search would provide interesting facts". Thankfully I figured out how to turn on the first and third things, and the ZMP finally came to Canada, but I suspect that there is still some lingering thoughts that this isn't a full device up here.
But mostly I blame the carriers. Look at Rogers's soft (there's an understatement) launch of the 920. Or maybe I'm just bitter that it will cost me $300+ to upgrade. :-(
- 11-13-2012, 03:05 PM #12
Like they said, you have to look long term. The more Windows 8 gets out in the world on tablets and computers, it'll be easier to show how it will all blend with windows phone.
I went up the street to the neighborhood sports bar last Sunday. Took my Surface with me to check on my fantasy team. A lot of the regulars came over to check out the Surface. I pulled out my 920 and took their picture. Shot it up to the skydrive and showed it to them on the Surface. Then had my wife pull out her arrive and show them the picture on her phone's skydrive. Both apple and android users alike were going nuts. Several say they want a windows phone now. Even one guy who finds something wrong with everything you show him.
If they can just somehow show how it all ties together so easily, it will help it grow faster.
- 11-13-2012, 03:13 PM #13
Judging by just how frustrated people are getting with trying to buy WP8 devices, the telcos have vastly underestimated the demand for WP device, and their rollout of the devices have reflected this.
With any luck, this worldwide WP8 launch fiasco should pesuade the telcos to go bigger on WP8. Actually start paying attention, and bringing in a decent amount of stock, so people can get the phones without phoning around 10 stores.
The OS isn't that much different to WP7 on the surface, so Microsoft really needs to start helping the big developers out, get them creating A+++ apps for WP8, and get them out quick, so the differences between WP7 & WP8 really start to show up.
- 11-13-2012, 05:43 PM #15
when the xbox launched it was pretty laughable even though it was leagues more powerful BUT fast forward to the xbox 360... the 360 is a HUGE success and pretty much the name of console gaming.
mind you I still think the wp8 launch is the worse launch I ever seen.
- 11-13-2012, 06:03 PM #16
Sure it does. Since Windows Phone is just one part of the overall Microsoft strategy, it doesn't have to outsell the iPhone or the Samsung of the Month in order to be successful.
Plus, it's only been out for a few days, give it some time.
- 11-13-2012, 07:05 PM #20
I think Windows Phone 8 has a fair chance to succeed but my phone has already died on me twice in the last four days. I had been waiting for Windows Phone for way too long but now I am reevaluating my decision. However, although the Lumia 920 is quite a brick, I am still going to give it another chance. I think it has a lot to prove. So I do think that we should give Windows Phone 8 a chance. People seem to be way too impatient these days but there are just so many options out there that you can hardly blame them.
- 11-13-2012, 07:47 PM #21
Windows Phone doesn't fail because it is bad, it fails because it is too far ahead of it's time. It needs to provide functionality of today, not tomorrow. People aren't asking for much, they only want the basics that have been a part of Android and iOS for 2+ years.
The app quality problem is not due to poor developer tools or poor API support, but the developers themselves do not want to invest the time it takes to create a really great app if they aren't going to recoup even 50% of the cost it took to make it.
MS needs to put up a feedback program like Steam's Greenlight. Let people vote on ideas/functionality that they want the most and then provide it in the next update. Boom, you just suddenly solved 90% of peoples problem with Windows Phone.
- 11-13-2012, 08:18 PM #22
In order for it to succeed it's going to have to combine the long term device support of Apple and the rapid improvement of Android. And those updates are going to have to be available to end users quickly and easily. I'm a recent convert to the WP8 platform having purchased a Lumia 920 this past weekend. I'm very, very close to returning it because of a overwhelming number of issues that on their own could be forgivable, but added together are just a frustrating experience.
Some of it is the OS/environment itself. Some of it is the hardware of the phone. Some it is the app development by Nokia. Added together I was ready to throw the thing in the box and return it.
Microsoft and the OEM's cannot afford to sit on their heels and churn out annual or longer updates. They have to come fast, they have to provide significant improvements and function, and most importantly they have to work.
There's so many little basic UI functions that could have (should have) been added in WP8 that aren't there. Things as simple as a "tap to top" when browsing web pages, a forward button, notification centers, a fix for the wifi bug on the lock screen, better availability of the SKD prior to launch to actually have apps available, ect. This wasn't a mystery launch. This thing had close to a year of momentum leading up to release at the end of October. The lack of quality 1st party apps at launch is a huge disservice to those on the fence with the platform.
Then combine it with quality issues with flagship models like the 920 and you leave a very bitter taste in the mouth of buyers. WP was already at life support levels of acceptance. MS & OEM's simply can not afford to stumble out of the gates even if this is a marathon. iOS and Android have such a massive head start that they were practically lapping WP from the opening lap.
WP really is a lovely OS and is an enjoyable experience in many areas. But I feel that it was either too rushed or put into development too late to really give it what it needed to be a viable option to the masses of iPhone users or Android converts. The marketing was too late. The apps are too late. The initial hardware has too many QA issues. Ect.
The initial announcement and release was a convoluted disaster.
While I agree with the "marathon" vs. "sprint" you have to understand that MS is in a much different position than Apple or Android. When Apple came out with the iPhone it was a very different market. It was really different device. Android had the luxury of being "not apple" and catering to tinkerers, developers, cheap markets, and has had a massive aggressive hardware and software development cycle. WP is not in either of those positions. The hurdles to overcome are incredible and the fumbled release is not doing any favors. With as little market share that WP already has the problems are going to further alienate the platform and it will eventually have the plug pulled.
I don't care about the top 50 apps and the couple that are missing. It's the next 1000+ that are still used by 10's of thousands of people instead of 10's of millions that give the variety to an ecosystem. The Kid Zone is a great idea...except outside of Angry Birds and Fruit Ninja there are very, very few quality education and younger children oriented applications of any quality in the WP market to put in it.
MS needed to have a huge number of quality 1st party apps on hand and shower developers with money to do it to have a worthy portfolio of applications available at launch.
The major hardware OEM's are Nokia and HTC. Both of those companies are in very bad financial shape. I don't know how long they can survive the WP "marathon" if their devices fail to live up to hype/expectations. Past them you've got Samsung who has the financial freedom to toss out a WP but their hearts aren't really in it. If WP8 flops they are still making money hand over fist in the Android market and they'll simply close the door on MS development.
It's a shame. But I agree with an earlier poster that Android is eventually going to consume most of the market in sales, profits, users, ect. Apple will eventually start to contract as the Android devices become more desirable, the OS more usable, and the app market continues to mature. As much as I'd like to see MS as a player in the long term mobile market, it's just not happening.
Too little. Too late. Too bad.
Last edited by viedit; 11-13-2012 at 09:10 PM.
11-13-2012, 08:57 PM #23
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I agree that this holiday season is hopeless but if they stick with it and work hard they have a fighters chance in a year or two, especially if Windows RT and Windows 8 pro takes off. Let's change gears a little.
How about RIM? Does slow and steady wins the race applies to them still or do they need as much money as Microsoft to eventually stop the bleeding?
- 11-13-2012, 11:35 PM #24
The marketshare wars tire me.
All the Apple fanboys out there who blabber about smartphone marketshare today wouldn't accept that the Macintosh is "dead" because it has less than 3% global share.
Android hard-core users weren't dissuaded by the G1's exclusivity on T-Mobile and the lack of apps and sales it initially had.
In the end, it's about three things:
1) Does it let you do what you want to do (yes);
2) Is it better FOR YOU than other alternatives (definitely);
3) Will it continue to sell enough units to get support from the vendor (absolutely).
- 11-14-2012, 07:58 AM #25
Why do they tire you? Because MS is on the bottom?
The Mac was dead until MS threw them a bone. Its still low market share, but their profits margins are very high, so it makes it worth their time.
The G1 was an god awful phone. But it caught on dude to the openness. I hated the G1, but the people who had them loved it.