Paul Thurott: Nokia is circling the drain. Surface Phone only hope.

[Laura Knotek]

RIM gets a lot of their revenue from BES & BIS & that's their biggest problem IMO. For companies BES is just another expense that they can get rid of, and for consumers what's the point of being locked into BIS now? If BB10 lets you escape the BES/BIS model then a lot of revenue disappears for RIM. I don't know if the option exists to use BB10 without BES/BIS, I haven't been following it that closely.

The service revenue from BES and BIS will decline. BlackBerry maker RIM posts small third-quarter profit; investors look to launch - Winnipeg Free Press

 

[Reflexx]

Too much short-term thinking.

RIM is attempting to build a mighty fine house with BB10. Several bedrooms. All the basic necessities. Maybe even a pool. Out in the boonies.

MS is building a whole city. The foundation for the city has been laid using the XP kernel. The WP neighborhood is bring built. Down the road we can see the Windows 8 and RT neighborhoods being constructed. The XBOX complex is nice, but next to it they've laid a new foundation for a brand new mall to add to it. The Office complex is also being renovated and is easily accessible to anyone in the city. There's the Skydrive cloud transport system that will deliver the data you want to you anywhere you happen to be.

Not everyone appreciates all the work being done yet, even though it's a pretty good city to live in already. Some people are waiting for that nice house out in the boonies that RIM is building.

 

[snowmutt]

The Asha devices are huge sellers. Nokia maps is a huge source of income. I have ALWAYS been critical of axing their successful Simbian line of devices, but the Lumia line has increased in sales every quarter (Except the third Q of this year as WP8 devices were being prepped).

Nokia will be fine, just not the same.

 

[Napocensis]

Too much short-term thinking.

RIM is attempting to build a mighty fine house with BB10. Several bedrooms. All the basic necessities. Maybe even a pool. Out in the boonies.

MS is building a whole city. The foundation for the city has been laid using the XP kernel. The WP neighborhood is bring built. Down the road we can see the Windows 8 and RT neighborhoods being constructed. The XBOX complex is nice, but next to it they've laid a new foundation for a brand new mall to add to it. The Office complex is also being renovated and is easily accessible to anyone in the city. There's the Skydrive cloud transport system that will deliver the data you want to you anywhere you happen to be.

Not everyone appreciates all the work being done yet, even though it's a pretty good city to live in already. Some people are waiting for that nice house out in the boonies that RIM is building.

Stop smoking weed, it gets to your brains!

 

[socialcarpet]

Paul Thurott is an idiot who simply writes provocative things in a pathetic plea for attention, just like that sh*tbag Josh Topolsky.

If either one of them knew anything, THEY would be running Nokia instead of writing stupid blogs.

This is why I don't waste my time reading blogs full of b.s. speculation written by morons who have no more inside information than one of us.

 

[B_Sack]

Stop smoking weed, it gets to your brains!

That's the whole point!

 

[JamesTBurns]

Its the opposite-Nokia is propping up the WP8 platform. Can you imagine if it was just the 8X and ATIV? I can't.

 

[DesaiDeas]

I think he is just taking Windows fanboyism to an unseen level of celibacy. I am loving my Lumia 920, battery life is outstanding (free wireless charging!) and Windows Phone 8 shines.

Paul isn't exactly credentialed in business strategy, despite his knowledge base. More so, I believe he is American (disclaimer, I am too) and if you judge what is happening in terms of what you see in the US you're fooled into thinking that it matters. Microsoft is doing a hybrid apple/google market strategy (when it comes to devices/software licences) and it will be a hand that slowly unfolds with it's multi-device, single kernel, multi-form factor soiree. A windows phone is a possibility, but it's launch would likely be next year along with Surface 2. there is a likely hood that there will be greater integration between the two with NFC or similar functionality to smartglass/xbox with cloud API/local network API integration.

 

[omniusovermind]

Paul isn't exactly credentialed in business strategy, despite his knowledge base. More so, I believe he is American (disclaimer, I am too) and if you judge what is happening in terms of what you see in the US you're fooled into thinking that it matters.

Well stated, I agree completely with both of those points.

 

[ilifecomputer]

Ehhh, I like my Lumia but definitely think MS needs a surface phone to really pull people in. I can't wait...

 

[1jaxstate1]

Yes it actually did. They have about four record breaking quarters in a row before being outdone by Samsung.

Because "making an Android phone" has made HTC bundles of money, right?

:|

 

[snakebitten]

Microsoft succeeds when they are commited. Don't know how commited they are, but my 920 is the best personal device I have ever owned. Already. Now. Without the "missing apps", notification lag, and undeveloped user volume/tone control.

It can't do anything but get better.

I'm old. I'm more patient than many. And I'm already blown away.

 

[irvin792]

Microsoft succeeds when they are commited. Don't know how commited they are, but my 920 is the best personal device I have ever owned. Already. Now. Without the "missing apps", notification lag, and undeveloped user volume/tone control.

It can't do anything but get better.

I'm old. I'm more patient than many. And I'm already blown away.

word!

 

[squire777]

Thurott is out of his mind. WP8 will hold a very solid 4th place after BlackBerry 10 launches Jan 30th. Well ahead of Sailfish, Meego, and WebOS.

Your promotion of RIM and downplaying of WP8 in this thread has been comical.

 

[Joseph Noble]

My Noka Lumia 920 screen shattered on first drop, from about 20". I am am major fan and had bought the stock a few weeks ago, based on this new phone. This screen breakage issue is a Major hardware flaw and I have already seen many reports online of screens breaking on first drop. Mark my word. I think this is going to be a major embarrassment for Nokia. They need to do something, fast, to help out customers who have already had, are who are going to have this breakage.

 

[mlm1950]

My Noka Lumia 920 screen shattered on first drop, from about 20". I am am major fan and had bought the stock a few weeks ago, based on this new phone. This screen breakage issue is a Major hardware flaw and I have already seen many reports online of screens breaking on first drop. Mark my word. I think this is going to be a major embarrassment for Nokia. They need to do something, fast, to help out customers who have already had, are who are going to have this breakage.

It is a major hardware flaw that a piece of glass breaks when you drop it on to a hard surface? Be more careful next time. Maybe buy a case.

 

[Ruined]

Here is my very simply, and very effective refute to Paul Thurott's point:
Microsoft had to ship overstock of Surface to Best Buy at least 1month early to try and sell the extra devices they could not.

Therefore, Surface did not sell as well as Microsoft projected. And this is what we are going to entrust windows phone with?

Nokia, IMO, is firing all cylinders. Lets just hope they have enough assets to remain in the game long enough to turn it around completely.

 

[Ruined]

My Noka Lumia 920 screen shattered on first drop, from about 20". I am am major fan and had bought the stock a few weeks ago, based on this new phone. This screen breakage issue is a Major hardware flaw and I have already seen many reports online of screens breaking on first drop. Mark my word. I think this is going to be a major embarrassment for Nokia. They need to do something, fast, to help out customers who have already had, are who are going to have this breakage.

This is not a flaw of the phone, as it uses the same glass that all recent smartphones do - Corning Gorilla Glass 2. Next time buy phone insurance if you can, because no phone is "safe" from a drop no matter how strong - and they all use the same strength glass.

 

[stephen_az]

If the surface is any indication of microsofts strategy for hardware is that they don't want to compromise profits on their end for the good of the platform. The surface rt can do so much better if it was priced cheaper, but Microsoft feels the need to have the same kinds of profits per device as apple does with their iPad. Look at what google is doing with their nexus line - tablets but mostly for the phones. They are sacrificing profits per device to get the device in the hands of as many ppl as possible. If Microsoft makes a surface phone, I'm afraid they're going to price just like the iPhone in order to maximize profits. That's so shortsighted. I hope they adopted googles strategy and prices it their surface phone low, gain market share which benefits the entire platform, then finally developers can port their great iPhone and android apps to WP.

One of my favorite things out of Nokia camp is when ppl were saying that HTC "copied" Nokia with bold colors on their phone. Nokias response was simply that it doesn't matter because it benefits the entire platform. Makes the entire platform look more appealing than iPhones and androids. This tells me that Nokia ACTUALLY Cares about the success of windows phone more than anything else....and more than Microsoft.

As a point of reference Google loses money on every Nexus tablet it sells. The same goes for Amazon with the Kindle Fire. Unless you are making it up with services (Amazon) or by extracting and selling personal data (Google), it is remarkably stupid to sell products at a loss. It is also unethical to sell at an unsustainable price just to capture market and, in spite of the fact that the US government seldom follows through, is still illegal. It falls under the century old anti trust laws that are needed as much today as at the start of the previous century. As for whether it is even good business, ask Amazon's investors when they last saw the company pull a profit, or ask Google's investors what they thought of last quarter's numbers. For that matter, ask RIM how the Playbook and its write down worked out for them. Microsoft's pricing is barely higher than Asus, Acer, etc., and a bit lower than Apple. You might not like the pricing strategy but it is a well considered strategy they have held for a long time. As a software and hardware company that needs to make money per unit sale not by playing who can run out of money first hoping services will make up the difference, it is a reasonable approach.

 

[Luminatic]

Hm ... I wonder, what could MS build into a surface phone what Nokia/HTC/Samsung coulndn't? More cores just like Android? Better camera? I'm wondering!

Apart from that and slightly off subject: I was always wondering why BBs are so widespread in some parts of the world and not at all in other. In my part of the world (central Europe) you hardly see any outside of the business world, and even there, business people - maybe apart from bankers - seem to prefer the iPhone. When a friend from the UK visited me recently, he was very surprised about the lack of BBs in the street. Their phones were never really popular here and never, ever fashionable.

Back to subject: Dear Paul, let's wait and see. I trust all those future-watchers as much as I trust Financial world analysts, Mme Cassandra with her crystal ball or a weather prophet. They're sometimes right, they're sometimes wrong. I personally don't think that Nokia goes down the drain anytime soon. But that could be european loyalism blinding my realism, of course ;-)


BTW, I've read some of Mr. Thurrots comments towards people who disagreed with him ... to me, he comes across as the guy who just wants to be right and lets no room to discussion. And I have yet to see his answer to those people who asked him what MS could do what Nokia/HTC/Samsung couldn't. (I give him some more time, though ... it's christmas ;-) )

Sorry to say this, but that guys behaviour doesn't come across as very intelligent to me ... truly intelligent people listen to the disagreeing people, question their own opinion, admit when they were wrong and are able to change their minds. They don't react like sulking girls when people disagree with them. Mr Thurrot only blocks off and lashes back. Jesus, what a stubborn person. (End of rant). What is his history, btw, and what makes him spread his opinion?

One problem I see with surface devices is, btw, distribution. If I want to buy a surface device, I have to cross that border. If I was enthusiastic about it, would I? Of course. Would the general, non-enthusiastic person who wants a new device? Certainly not ... they wander into the next Mediamarkt, try out a few devices THAT ARE THERE and chose from WHAT IS THERE ... Compared with, say, the Lumia 920, MS has a lot of catching up to do ... this might not be the case for other countries, but for mine, it is.