- 03-28-2013, 08:38 AM #1
I have watch Windows Phone Operating System grow from WP7 all the way through to today. We have come a long way in just a couple of years and WP8 is really growing fast for an OS that is only 6 months old. Understand that WP7 and WP8 are not the same OS the two are fundamentally the same but the base software has been changed. The new WP8 OS is built for the future. We all know the common complaints by people new to the system. From the beginning simple had been the Metro standard. I think that is hard for some people to accept. Average consumers lover it but some of those more versed want more control over their devices. Microsoft keeps moving forwarded with the growth of this OS adding more options along the way. I think Microsoft is still doing a good job of integrating new features while keeping the OS simple. One by one the dislikes get wiped away. Even individual developers are getting into the act by making their apps sharper and richer with each update. I myself have seen more than 20 app updates on my phone this very week.
With all that is going on with all the updates and upgrades that we know about, what do you think is WP here to stay? What do you think about the future of WP? Is there anyone that still thinks the Microsoft will abandon WP? Why? I just want to know where this community thinks we are and where do you think we are headed. Do you think we are on the right path? Do you think there is any reason way this OS wont some day be a contender with Apple and Android?
Please no one line answers. Explain what you are thinking and why you are think that.
- 03-28-2013, 08:54 AM #2
2013 is a key year for MSFT. They've laid the groundwork with the new kernel in WP8. They've gotten some quality hardware in the hands of consumers, most notably the 920.
If MSFT can continue to streamline the OS and add apps, they should be the 3rd best option on the market easily. "Shut up and ship", "under promise and over deliver" when it comes to features and OS support. I doubt MSFT abandons WP8 because it would mean the Windows 8 approach is a flop too and they have to find a way to take advantage of the shift from PC to mobile tech.
What I'd like too see is more intuitive integration of the OS. They already have the bits built in, just tweak and grow those features. hardware wise, continue to get a WP at every price point so consumers can choose. Advertise smartly.
- 03-28-2013, 10:05 AM #3
Microsoft has never had a dominant share of the mobile market and I am going back to Windows Mobile. If they wanted a larger share of the mobile market, they have the financial resources to get a much larger share and I mean a much larger share. I think Microsoft is concentrating on the tablet market right now, by the number of ads I see on TV. Unless you have some information that I don't have, I see no reason why Microsoft would abandon the WP OS.
I also think Nokia is trying show Microsoft the way into the mobile market, so I think they are going in the right direction.
- 03-28-2013, 10:05 AM #4
I think WP is here to stay and I think it's headed in the right direction, albeit slowly. I like the way Microsoft is pushing to get more apps to the platform and they seem interested in improving the features in the operating system. However I don't know if WP will ever be able to compete with android phones for market share. Android is evolving and bringing new features to the table significantly faster than any other platform. I can see WP being close to the iPhone in market share eventually, but it will take time. Microsoft needs to put forth a better effort to release software that is less buggy. I hope I'm not being overconfident, but I believe these problems will be worked out and Windows Phone will eventually be the third mobile platform by a large margin.
- 03-28-2013, 10:36 AM #5
The phone is an Enterprise necessity, a Consumer necessity, and soon, a gamers necessity to play multi-screen.
My prediction of the future is the 6" Atom phablet computer running either Windows Home or Pro.
Lenovo is almost there with the K900
It's a 5.5" Atom with 1920 x 1080. Just begging for Windows and LTE. The case is almost wide enough for a full 6" screen with thin bezel. I expect we see that at CES Jan 2014.
Size and weight:
K900 -- 6.18 x 3.07 x 0.27 inches 5.7 oz ( a 6" screen might need a 3.25" width).
L920 -- 5.13 x 2.79 x 0.42 in 6.5 oz
The phone is the computer. Microsoft can't bail out on the new reality. It's their moment as the Atom phones hit
- 03-28-2013, 10:45 AM #6
Windows Phone? No.
Microsoft? Also No. For reasons which I think bears heavily on the answer for Windows Phone...
Mark Twain is often credited with the saying "History may not repeat, but it does rhyme". What I think I see with WP and Windows 8 seems to be a rhyme of an earlier battle between the Symbolics Lisp workstations and Sun Unix workstations in the 80's. Unix won that battle so thoroughly that many people today have never heard of Symbolics, except maybe as a historical curiosity (Symbolics.com was the first dot-com domain ever registered). Or a later battle between the Unix workstations and PC workstations (Windows and Linux), which PC's won so thoroughly that MIPS, Sun and Silicon Graphics themselves became historical curiosities (Windows NT was developed on MIPS R3000 workstations, then ported to Intel x86).
Years ago Richard Gabriel wrote an article (actually a section of an article) called "The Rise of 'Worse Is Better'" Worse is better - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia describing the phenomenon where a relatively inferior and immature development style nonetheless consistently produced more successful software. He was contrasting the success of MIT/ZetaLisp/Genera (Good but ultimately unsuccessful) vs AT&T/C/Unix (Worse but better), but the same dynamic seems to be playing out again with Android and iPhone vs Windows Phone. With both Windows 8 and Windows Phone Microsoft seems to have adopted the MIT mindset of crafting these perfect little jewels of APIs (WP and WinRT) with the seeming goal of making it impossible to write "bad" software. In contrast Apple and Google are shoving crufty, half-baked APIs out the door sooner and quicker and getting wider developer adoption and better apps sooner and more often. Meanwhile Microsoft spends their next year rolling out the next iteration of their little jewels, which developers will once again ignore because they're already busy getting working on stuff on the other platforms, and customers will ignore because they're now dependent on those same shiny new apps. Ironically it seems that Microsoft's little jewel-like APIs aren't even as suited for serious development work as their crufty competitors; while it's understandable that Office wasn't available for WinRT before launch it is pretty inexcusable how bad the Mail app turned out to be, and even less excusable that it has taken a year to get the first serious upgrades to it since the Consumer Preview last year.
It'll be interesting to see how the Blackberry OS10 plays out over the next few years; they've hedged their bets by providing both a crufty Android layer and their more jewel-like Cascades layer.
Edit: I can't recommend Gabriel's essay highly enough (the full essay is titled "Lisp: Good News, Bad News, How to Win Big" see http://www.dreamsongs.com/Files/LispGoodNewsBadNews.pdf). His argument has shown extremely widespread applicability over the 25 years since he wrote it.
Last edited by mparker; 03-28-2013 at 01:08 PM.
- 03-28-2013, 10:49 AM #7
Since this is not our decision to make and we have very little control over it I will simply file this whole discussion under "pillow-talk".
Given were beginning to see some big name applications appearing at a very fast rate, the people who's livelihood and money are on the line are saying yes. WP will be around for a while. Looking back to the competition and their fist few months/years, WP has actually made astounding progress in a very short time period. I'd personally be worried if I were on the other side of the fence competing against MSFT. This train has begun running on all cyclinders and it may no longer be possible to stop it.
- 03-28-2013, 11:04 AM #8
The only thing I’m 100% positive on is that Microsoft is going to stay in mobile. Microsoft’s lifeblood is Windows and Office. Both have gone mobile. Our new, always on, always connected mobile world is here to stay. Microsoft is committed to mobile, period. Mobile is the market and Microsoft can’t afford to abandon it.
The question is; what form will Microsoft and Windows Phone take in the future? Microsoft may never abandon Windows Phone but the platform may yet evolve. Mobile CPUs/GPUs continue to dramatically improve in both power and efficiency. We may one day see a future where Windows desktop and Windows Phone are identical.
White space technology may also change Windows Phone.
Right now we are all carrier dependent for basic things like calls and text. If Microsoft (and Google) can get white space technology in more places, there might come a time when Skype is our only phone number.
Heck, there’s even a possibility that Microsoft could sell Windows Phone to Nokia. Unlikely? Yes, but always possible.
A carrier free future sounds nice but it’s going to be a decade or more before white space Internet is everywhere (nor would it be free). A W8/WP8 merge would evolve the platform, not kill it. Even a buyout to Nokia would keep WP alive.
Ultimately, Microsoft is staying mobile and Windows Phone will be here for quite some time. So is Windows Phone going in the right direction? It’s a bumpy road, but yeah, I think they are.
Microsoft is doing what you’d expect any corporation to do; they’re attacking emerging markets, forming global partnerships, advertising, investing in new technology and they’re showcasing a clear vision of what they want and how they plan to get there.
Yeah, it’s taking Microsoft forever and an ice age to get there but that glacier is still moving. And while I understand that everyone wants to be treated like the world’s #1 mobile OS, market share dictates app support. Fortunately, all signs show that app support is growing, sales are increasing and software updates are coming faster (or maybe that’s just really good customer support from Nokia).
Overall I’m still optimistic about WP8 and Microsoft’s mobile push. Sure, everything could get much worse but Microsoft hasn’t shown any signs that they’re walking away. In fact, the only thing I’ve seen from Microsoft is that they’re getting stronger.
03-28-2013, 11:35 AM #9
- 2,777 Posts
I believe it is. The three screens philosophy is one that none of MS competitors can match. The user base will grow with both Windows 8/RT and with Xbox is already massive. Yes they've been late to the party with WP8 and uptake has been slow but they are making all the right moves. Rushing in trying to steal marketshare from Apple and Google was never the plan its a marathon not a sprint and in 4 years time there may be an equal three way split.
I think with the next round of updates and the release of the new xbox at the end of the year we could see a massive shift from consumers to WP8 and the 3 screens philosophy really starting to take shape.
But heres what I see as the current stumbling block. Tech Bloggers and Reviewers.
There is only so long the tech bloggers can keep rubbishing MS products before they have to give in to the realisation that what MS is pushing is miles ahead of what the competition is offering. They already know it is but I feel they are afraid to admit it. The RT is a perfect example - its so much better than the ipad and I believe its mainly down to poor reviews from scared tech bloggers that cradle their ipads in their arms as they fall asleep at night that sales haven't been that great. If they came out and said "I love my ipad but the RT blows it out the water and I wish I had one" sales would have been a lot better.
While the majority using these forums are enlightened to the clickbait articles that go out slamming MS products the uneducated masses don't know any better and will take those reviews as gospel which I believe is currently damaging sales of the current W8 product line.
I purchased my RT and 8X as soon as they launched and got ridiculed by 5 of the isheep in my office who actually pointed me at reviews and actually quoted lines at me saying that neither were any good and that their iphones and ipads were better and I was mad to be selling my ipad to help pay for the RT. Three months later 4 of the 5 have sold their ipads and iphones and are now rocking RT's and lumia 920's and 8x's. The other guy is too heavily entrenched in apples ecosystem to switch but he concedes that he would switch if he could and has ditched his mac at home in favour of a 23"AIO rocking W8. Now if I had been a regular Joe without a clue I too would be one of the isheep and wouldn't know any better.
As someone has already said "the train has begun running on all cylinders" - I'm on board for the long haul.
Edit: Paul Thurrott just backed up some of what im saying. Imagine that.
Last edited by martinmc78; 03-28-2013 at 12:28 PM.
- 03-28-2013, 11:41 AM #10
I think mparker has a point that cannot be ignored easily. This is why MSFT HAS to balance a mix of ease of use and adding apps. Ease of use can get,people interested, and it has, but WP can be so much more intuitive. There is a litany of ideas from users out there on how to tweak the OS. I'd love to see the Hubs more developed, among other things personally. But if they're unable to get more devs onboard to pump out (then support) the apps consumers yammer for, then WP will be around but maybe only in 4th place.
- 03-28-2013, 12:54 PM #11
Yes it most definitely is headed in the right direction. The apps are flowing in, news of the OS taking the number one spot in a few countries especially India which has a population more than 3 times greater than the US. That is huge for our overall market share, we also have strong brands like Nokia,HTC and even Samsung. Once Samsung sees the success of WP (and I think they're beginning to) they will help grow the platform even more just like they did with Android (their initial Android efforts were below standards as well). We're beginning to go on a great ride right now. Let's all sit back and enjoy it.
- 03-28-2013, 12:56 PM #12
I really wish the posts in this thread weren't all so philosophical and long. I had to drink TWO cups of tea to finish reading it all, digesting it and then start writing this post. Well done though guys, interesting read!
I think WP is here to stay. I do not think it will take over Android or take over iPhone like Android did. I really hope we don't do that. Once we do that, the focus will change. Microsoft will stop innovating and there will be history repeating itself. In Windows Mobile days when the only sort of smart innovating stuff was pocket PC, Microsoft NEVER updated anything substantial for it. WP has only come into existence because of threat of competitions and not only threat, they actually caught Microsoft napping and then won the battle.
If we gain those marketshares and beat the rest, Microsoft will sleep again. I really passionately back up this platform and Microsoft because I want to see the three screens dream become reality along with Kinect sensors in each of these screens. I want to be able to have that before Google glass even becomes mainstream. I want to be able to enjoy the ecosystem I have been slowly adapting to, with my Xbox, Windows 8 PC, WP8 and Surface Pro (once someone pays me for my kidney on ebay!)
By not being too mainstream but being noticeable like we've been in 2013 - we are gaining some traction. I want that to continue and become a little better. We've already seen some "exclusive to WP" love from some developers and we only have 3% share. I want that sort of love more even if we are only going to be 6% of marketshare for rest of the life. Why? Because if developers see the potential and keep developing, if Microsoft has to always work their little *** off for staying relevant and if Nokia has to keep pumping out innovating models every 4 months - as a consumer, I will be a king and be treated like one!
What does annoy me is half-*** attempt at so many bug fixes! I know it's Microsoft and we shouldn't expect any bug fixes for at least 12 months! But half-*** annoys me... e.g. Emails - if you read on either WP8 or Windows 8 - the notification clears and email is marked as read on BOTH, but People Hub notifications - you have to go and clearly manually on both devices. Half assed. If you can implement in one of your main system apps, just use an extra week and code it for all the other system apps! Okay, this is a ranting sort of long post so I will jump to nutshell - Yes I love the way WP is evolving and Microsoft is in the right direction. I hope we don't become mainstream soon and that Microsoft keeps being challenged so that it keeps doing what it knows the best - Innovate!
Last edited by rockstarzzz; 03-29-2013 at 07:21 AM. Reason: Typos!
- 03-28-2013, 01:05 PM #13
I think it's hard to tell if it is going in the right direction when it's still so soon after the release of WP8. I mean, WP8 was a 100% necessary update to allow the software to run on modern hardware. But the question is where it's heading after WP8, and we know almost nothing about that. It's tough to say until we at least get some details on what Blue will entail on the Windows Phone side of things.
I'm not sure that WP Blue will be drastic enough. As an example, there's some major functionality on Windows Phone that is just done a million times more elegant in Windows RT and Windows 8, and I'd love the half-baked stuff in WP to be replaced with the more robust Windows counterpart. We just know nothing about Blue, so I don't know how anyone could even venture to guess on if Microsoft is going in the right direction or not. It's like they're driving around in the pitch black of night... we know that they're moving in some direction, but we don't know nearly enough to know if it's the right one.
- 03-28-2013, 01:16 PM #14
I liked the Lumia ad with the dude and his cyan 900 in the office meeting, but we need more variety than that. I'd be more interested in that than those dancing clicking surface ads or the celebrity snoresfest about how they use their WP to do show off their Live Tiles.
MSFT: smart, hip ads focusing on features users can use!
- 03-28-2013, 01:37 PM #15
In reality Blue for phone will end something of a catchup period for Microsoft.
XBox 720 and Atom Chips will allow Microsoft to differentiate in a more positive manner from the pack.
The truimph of the worse? (See the 8-track over the cassette in the 70s, VHS over BETA in the 80s, Windows over Apple in the 90s, MP3s over FLAC or other lossless formats in the Naughts and Android over everything else in the New Teens). People choose convenience, price, ease of use, content choice, and fad over quality every time.
Underlying problems for Microsoft and Apple: playing MP3s,sending eMails, watching movies, making calls, and taking pictures can be done on any device. That's 1/2 of the US market right there. Add Twitter and Face Book and that's another 25%. Android will own that market forever. It's the CB radio and 8-track player of the New Teens.
People who browse, buy apps, use GPS, and any 'power' features at all are at best 25% of the market. IDC has Microsoft and Apple splitting about 35% of the market by 2016 with mindless droids making up the rest. Seems about right. iOSX and Windows 3-screen Jupiter will create their own space for high end and power users.
03-28-2013, 03:32 PM #16
- 305 Posts
For sure here to stay, can't really not have a player in mobile.
I saw a post the other day where someone wondered if a notification center would be in the next batch of minor updates, and someone replied with 'They'll probably wait for Phone 9 for that so they can highlight it as a feature'. I would certainly hope that's not the case, because these are things they should be adding as they can. They're so far behind the other players in the market they don't have the luxury of sitting on features that already exist in other platforms and them touting them as highlights of the OS. The Windows Phone team need to pick up the pace and quickly.
I do also wonder if one day they'll consider re-branding Windows Phone. They always have some great codenames for software they have in house (Apollo..Gemini) and then by the time something ships it gets the long winded company branding. I think a lot of the time the common person on the street hears 'Windows Phone' and probably thinks it has a task-bar, blue screens, and has a recycle bin on it's display. I doubt they'll ever change it, but even the name itself doesn't have that 'cool' factor of Android, iPhone or even X-Box. Sadly the great masses are concerned with such things.
03-28-2013, 06:18 PM #17
- 379 Posts
Some very salient points in this thread. Which comes first - market share or app count?
There's no doubt in my mind that MS are in this for the long haul. They don't have to make money out of WP now or even soon. Apple need iPhone and iPad revenue to keep their valuation as high as it is. Google are nursing a real headache with Android - Chinese OEMs are taking the cheap end of the market (without all the Google hooks) and Samsung are definitely keeping their options open across the board. If Samsung bailed out of Android (or forked it) then Google have a real headache.
Another point is that WP's OEM (ok Nokia ) model offers phones at a wide variety of price ranges (just like Android) but also has the locked down core experience model that rightly made the iPhone a success.
(And let's not forget that MS have a massive market for embedded W8/WP8 - pretty much every intelligent portable scanner in the world runs Windows CE, military and aviation systems and so on)
We shouldn't underestimate Blackberry or HTC - both are credible players, and both are desperate for their next generation of hardware to be successful. If they are not, then both might disappear. I wouldn't rule out a merger - seriously.
I still think MS will produce a Surface phone, priced above the Lumia 920 and pitched directly at the iPhone - an "executive" model with an equivalent level of engineering.
So, is WP headed in the right direction? Commercially - yes. And ultimately that's what will tip the balance. The app developers will follow the market share - which isn't a criticism at all, that's exactly what I would expect them to do.
Will Android's market share shrink? Yes. Will Apple struggle to differentiate future versions of the iPhone? Yes. Will WP make inroads into both? Yes. Market share will never be even, and I'm not sure that WP will ever hold the top spot. But unless Apple start producing kit that the masses can afford they won't either. Android might hold on there, but I think that depends on Samsung.
The one thing that's certain? We live in interesting times....
- 03-28-2013, 07:56 PM #19
2 not sure, it moves very slowly, and is extremely focused on the UI, and not changing the UI regardless of sales/opinions wether from consumers or developers. I'm not sure why this is, its perplexing to me. there is plenty of money to throw at it, or reengineer it, so I think some form will be around for a while. there is always a possibility that blue/orange/whatever will be a real head turner when its released. of course microsoft is working on the next os now, and has been for some time. past performance (wm, kin, wp7, now 8) means it could be back burnered at any time.
3 kind of answered that at the end of "2".
4 why. hmm. well, its like an old car. sure, it does the job, and can be improved on, but its so much more fun to get the new car smell, all shiny, quiet, and smooth.
5 absolutely, yes. its not "we" though, its microsoft, "them". they have a dedication to product that is just wow. even when sales are extremely poor, the constant and consistent college try is really something to see. the teams are GIDDY when a new to wp feature or app is released. genuinely happy to have accomplished something new, even if other platforms have had similar apps / features for a while. these guys and gals are really have fun. that's cooooool.
6 its just developing too slowly. the commercials are flashy, but not focused. WOW me with features. show me I can do everything an android of iphone can. the micromanaged 'competitions' like smoked are easy to see through, and annoying. WOW me. blow my socks off with some BADASS ms tech that would make the skunkworks crowd take notice. under promise, over deliver. presentations, get some people that know how to present. not giddy engineers that don't mind if an app crashes on stage. not droning corporate mouth pieces. presenters. people that really are WITH IT and know when they have an golden egg of a product, not another ceo with a golden parachute.
oh, fire balmer. get some blood in there with a pulse. **** get a hipster (shudder), but get that man out of the control room and let the engineers KICK *** for a change.
- 03-28-2013, 08:40 PM #20
All in you make some good points. I don't agree with all of them but point on point.
Last edited by Dave Blake; 03-28-2013 at 08:53 PM.
- 03-28-2013, 10:05 PM #22
I think the last 3-4 weeks is showing they are on the right course. They got off to a slow start, but they are now going downhill and picking up speed. The rate at which new apps are hitting the store is quite a thing to see. The fact that WP8 is starting to see apps released at the same time, or very close to, iOS and Android is further proof. The simple fact is, this os is easy to use and ranks highly amongst its users. Android has some significant issues in its future to deal with, including what happens if Samsung goes all in for Tizen.
WP8 just has the core basics covered so well. I can actually, functionally use Excel on my phone! OneNote is great. SkyDrive is unbelievable...allowing me to share photos on my phone with friends and family far easier than ever before. The fact that SkyDrive is, after a simple download, integrated right into Win7 allowing me to quickly deal with my files like they were on my HDD is another great thing, and shows how integrated WP8 is becoming with the PC. Outlook.com and its integration with the phone, as well as Facebook and Twitter, show the power built right in. webOS started this level of integration, and WP8 has taken it to the next level. The fact that WP8 is also viewed as a better platform to earn money per user, and that WP will probably hit 30 million users shortly, if not already, is going to be a major draw to app developers. Especially as the tools mature and allow quick ports.
I think we would all like to see MS speed the pace up a bit. That is the one are they need to improve on so they can fill the "holes" quicker and get rid of the annoyances that still "tarnish" the platform. But, overall, they are heading in the right direction and will likely cement themselves as the number 3 OS within the next few months.
03-29-2013, 03:19 AM #25
- 1 Posts
I think Microsoft will have some success with Windows Phone, but it will not achieve the dominance that it seeks. The problem has to do with their deliberate progression toward a closed development model. Apple, as we all know, retains tight control over both hardware and software. Most Apple users do not mind this at all. In fact, the psychological make-up of the typical Apple super-fanatic is such that, not only do they not mind being boxed-in, but if they could have their way, their neighbor, whom they have never met, would be boxed-in too. If this smells of a cult, that's probably because, in some ways, it is. Nevertheless, there is a HUGE number of people in the world who enjoy being locked in, and Apple has enriched itself on them. Additionally, because the products are of high quality (or so I hear) those who are not "drawn to the cult" also occasionally buy Apple products.
Microsoft saw the rise of iOS, then Android, and freak-out. We must remember: Windows Mobile was/is an open OS. If I want to write a super-killer-application that gets ultra-deep into the device on Windows Mobile, I can. Not true on Android. Not true on iOS. As much as Google claims that Android is an open-platform, it is not. There is a sand-box in which the developer must code. Even the so-called "native" code is actually launched via JNI. I have never programmed on iOS, but I am sure it is similar.
These closed models have a peculiarity: they tend to benefit the proprietor of the closed model. Sure, you can write "apps" for Android, but those apps will be confined to a certain type. And as we all know, development on Android is a mess. A third-party software developer cannot break free and write device-pervasive applications.
Microsoft responded by locking-down WP7. Then WP8. Developers screamed for native code, and were thrown a bone in the context of JIT'ed C++ execution, but not true device-pervasive native development. The API of WP8 is missing some significant elements when compared to Windows 7 and Windows 8 desktop.
All this is important for a simple reason: Someone is going to come along and provide a truly open platform. Not Android, but something that provides access to the entire device. Consumers and businesses will start using smart-phones for things that they were not meant to be used for. The sky will be the limit.
Then what? Will Microsoft suddenly open-up its platform? Android? Won't matter It will be too late.
This is what is going to happen, because Microsoft failed to understand a simple fact: The people who prefer Microsoft, over Apple, prefer open models, over closed models. Microsoft, in trying to create outstanding uniform consumer experience, has alienated its most important loyalists. Those who do not like being locked-in.
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