- 06-21-2013, 06:45 PM #1
I wanna say we're ****ed actually.
the helsingin sanomat is suggesting nokia might be broken up to parts. this is even worse than all the previous rumours of microsoft or huwei (or however it's spelt) buying them out. they are clearly in trouble, and considering their normal operating condition has been 'trouble' for the past 5 years now this seems even more drastic.
even though i only started caring about nokia because of windows phone i honestly now wish they had gone with android for their own sake. they make stellar hardware, probably the best on the market. Yet they're being held back by the operating system so it's not hard to see why the shareholders are disgruntled. yeah the lumia 925 is an amazing phone, but it has to compete with the HTC one and the S4 (and the iphone). with the bigger is better attitude of the android customer base and the still lacking app selection i'd be (pleasantly) surprised if it stood a good chance.
without nokia windows phone is done. nokia is the only reason the software is even slightly competitive, although at this point we're so behind it's ridiculous. yeah wp is nice to use and it probably has all the features you'd normally need, but people don't just want a phone that gets things done, they want a pocket computer that does everything. anyway, this is not the point.
the point is if nokia goes wp can give up all it's hopes of ever becoming competitive and at this point this seems like a very likely scenario.
can we discuss this for a minute? (without the fanboyism if possible; i've heard all the arguments, in fact i probably used some of them before, but since i strangely actually care about this os i feel like a touch of realism is in order.)
Last edited by Dave Blake; 06-21-2013 at 10:38 PM. Reason: Link removed
06-21-2013, 09:48 PM #3
- 221 Posts
It makes no sense now, when the financials have stabilized and things are looking up much better for Nokia. The potential future value of Nokia as an ongoing enterprise should be significantly greater than the sum of its parts. This might have been possible last year but I really can't see why now.
- 06-21-2013, 09:54 PM #4
I agree with Bahamen, but I am very worried that someone is up to something stupid, and going to pull the plug just as things are getting good.
I can't help but think if MS could be more agile with their OS updates we would be in a MUCH better position... many of the perceived advantages of Android are just not that hard to code... Microsoft is just moving glacially slow.
I am literally in pain thinking if I had to go iPhone or Android... either way would be VERY painful to me.
06-21-2013, 10:00 PM #5
- 122 Posts
To be fair, both iPhone and Android get updates MUCH slower than we do (I've had both). Whereas we get updates every few months, and we're the 'fastest growing platform' for a reason. We live in a fast-paced world, that's why it just seems a slow pace. But the main problem is the number of parties involved in the update process (i.e. many levels of teams within Microsoft, OEMs, AND carriers) all have to review and approve these updates... so while the updates can be made in no time, it's the testing and approval process that bogs things down. I'm sure they'll figure out a way to simplify this in the near future.
- 06-21-2013, 10:36 PM #7
So miss guided. What an alarmist attitude. You have zero evidence to any of this. All anyone knows know is that Microsoft, Huawei and Nokia have stirred the waters with comments. I suggest everyone in this thread read this article:
For now, we’ll lean on best-case scenario that the Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN) venture will simply take a new twist, later in July, rather than something more dramatic like the company changing hands or Nokia CEO Stephen Elop being replaced.
- 06-21-2013, 10:49 PM #8
Edit: now I see that's the article you linked to... Now I just don't understand your post, as there is clearly more than "comments" occurring.
- 06-21-2013, 10:50 PM #9
I seriously doubt breaking the company up is in the cards.
- 06-21-2013, 10:56 PM #10
I'll further add that the second most likely scenario is MS buying a larger stake, maybe going in jointly to help them buy out Siemens stake in NSN. There are a number of possibilities that are more likely than breaking the company up.
- 06-21-2013, 11:03 PM #11
- 06-22-2013, 01:12 AM #13
I really wouldn't worry about it. HTC has all but ditched Windows Phone. The last serious windows phone I felt they made was the titan 2. The 8x is a nice phone but not enough memory. At one time, HTC was the only Windows Phone 6.5 OEM, they were one of the best launch partners..if Nokia goes away I am pretty sure another partner will step up.
06-22-2013, 03:42 AM #15
- 221 Posts
There's not much talk about bankruptcy anymore, and it does seem that the share price is reflecting this. Fyi I do follow some investment forums on Nokia and the change in sentiment is obvious. The question now is not so much about whether Nokia will prevail against BB but whether it can make headway against the big two.
Now if you look back at the last earnings announcement it is clear that the cash burn has stopped and as mentioned above the investment community has recognized that.
The other good news is the statement by Nokia that it has reached underlying profitability.
Of course there are still a lot of uncertainties but the point is that breaking up Nokia right now is highly unusual when it seems that the fun is only getting started. The timing of it just makes no sense... Unless it is because one of the top two are getting nervous and decided to make a ridiculous offer just to keep them out.
- 06-22-2013, 04:37 AM #16
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- 06-22-2013, 06:05 AM #17
This is an area where Microsoft should be showing the advantages of a consistent experience vs. Android.
- 06-22-2013, 06:45 AM #19
right, this is a very good point. it's noteworthy that they have returned to profitability and the stocks seem to be doing decently, although overall they are still down compared to the beginning of last year.
this is exactly why the news are so confusing though. i assumed to worst was over, but now it seems the worst is yet to come. i realise it's mostly rumours but now we're hearing consistent news of a disruption in nokia's original plans, be it selling to microsoft or being broken up.
i know microsoft can afford to keep wp on the backburner and support it pretty much indefinitely, but i can't really see it standing a chance without nokia
(edit: this is in reply to Bahamen
06-22-2013, 07:02 AM #22
- 301 Posts
MS is not serious about WP. In these past 8 months we've seen unnecessary backlash on win8 so they concentrated on 8.1 very much then XB1 came which also got concentration before and after but WP remained very much behind. Sinofsky left. So, Something's up at Redmond. I know 7.5 came after very short time and with a lot of new features. This time it's gonna take 12+ months for major update. I hope GDR 3 gives some major changes with resolution. I have made up my mind to wait until blue update but I agree with OP, because I hope MS just doesn't kill WP by letting Nokia focusing away from WP. If that happens, WP is in big trouble.
2 options 1. Bring new features asap, those which are completed, ship them anyway. 2. Invest in Nokia to let it be stable.
P.S. It's Nokia's current stability which attracted a lot of buyers I guess.
06-22-2013, 07:28 AM #23
- 1,107 Posts
Also people need to remember that Lumia 928 being 3rd on Verizon means nothing when you used to sell 28 million smartphones, 135 million phones a quarter, have 98 000 workers (used to be 125 000), have +78 million dumb phone sales that are coming down fast. Selling +1-3 million Lumias in a quarter under that weight means nothing. Especially as Lumias have yet to make any profit, while dumb phones do that every quarter.
Even so, I do agree that the Nokia Board of Directors meeting is MUCH more likely about NSN than anything else. Things happening around NSN are not after all any kind of secret and they are happening right now.
If we don't finally start seeing some truly positive news around Lumias, I can see Elop being shown a door very soon and likely some major changes. It's money and the expected value that the company brings to investors what makes them afloat, not wishes and hopes of better future.
- 06-22-2013, 08:05 AM #25
People really do like to over-react. Why don't you all just switch now and save yourself the trauma over the next few months. Give it a couple of days you might even see some meme's floating around saying "switch from lumia" run by android fans. Cant imagine how worried you will be seeing those.
Nokia aren't going anywhere as a provider of WP if seimens sell off the portion they own and nokia/MS buy that portion up Nokia will have the biggest mobile patent chest in the business, MS aren't going to allow nokia to be sold off or broken up and lose access to all those patents.
WP updates have always been in a cycle of between 3-4 months. Nodo came out after 3 months on WP7 Followed by Mango 4 months after that to get us to 7.5. With WP8 we've had portico 3 months after launch and GDR2 is due anytime soon which puts it at 4 months after portico. GDR 3 is due November - 4 months later.
Don't see where the problem is there folks - looks like business as usual.
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