Prediction: the death of phone subsidies will be great for Windows Phone in the US

[Joe920]

[deleted]

 

[Rich215]

I would agree....and also not just those fruit phones of high cost will have sticker shock showings....but Samsung ones too!

This will also cause a increase in the used phone market as well....shopping for a use phone in good shape will cost more now. It will be interesting to see how things play out through 2016.

 

[PepperdotNet]

I can't be the only one to notice that the subsidized down-payment on an iPhone or Galaxy is more than it costs to buy a really good Windows phone outright.

 

[tgp]

This move won't really change prices much. The main difference will be that the actual cost is more transparent, which might affect a few people's decisions (but probably not iPhone users, who pay the most). But overall, the difference in cost between a phone on contract, using Edge/Next, or buying outright isn't that much.

Buying outright gives the option of using a prepaid carrier though, which can be cheaper. But if you're going through the carrier, which plenty of people still are, it won't make much difference.

I don't think the carriers are going to make a move that will hurt their bottom line, do you? I guarantee you they are doing this because they believe it will increase profits, which means that somebody else is paying the price.

 

[Musicman247]

They're only separating the cost of the phone from the plan. They're still offering payment plans for the phone, and the payments are more than would add to the plan if it was subsidized. So yeah, they're just going to make more money off of this.

 

[worldspy99]

I think in general it will finally get US mobile users to be in sync with the rest of the world. I think people will look at a cellphone purchase like any durable goods item and try and use it for as long as possible instead of a throwaway commodity....hopefully a bit less e-waste as well.

 

[tgp]

The big difference will be that the phone cost is going to be a highly visible and optional contribution to the price of people's cellphone plan. Previously it used to be "Hey, subsidy is already part of my plan, so I'd be a fool not to upgrade and get that $599 phone for $199", or "Hey, that Galaxy S5 is only $199". At least now people get to see the real MSRP.

Yes I mentioned that the difference will be transparency of the phone's actual cost. I question though whether it will matter. iPhone users already know they are paying more, and don't care.

If the options are a $599 iOS or Android phone and a $300 WP flagship, the choice might be easy.

It might cause users who buy flagship Android phones to choose a cheaper one, but I don't think it'll cause a measurable platform shift. Android has plenty of high quality moderately priced mid range phones as well. At most it'll cause a Note user to buy a Moto X instead or something like that.

Very curious what MS will do in the different market segments, and how the general public will respond.

Same here!

Even so, with the financing still available, the end result is pretty much what you get with a contract, again with the only difference being the visibility of the phone's cost.

 

[Joe920]

It might cause users who buy flagship Android phones to choose a cheaper one, but I don't think it'll cause a measurable platform shift.

You might be right here, but that doesn't stop me from hoping you're wrong! At least we'll have many consumers looking at the 'affordable phone segment', so even if the platform shift isn't massive, it should help a little. If "only" one in ten iOS users makes the switch to WP, that would mean almost a doubling of the US WP market share. Not quite sure whether to put a smiley or a sadface here!

 

[tgp]

Funny, this just came out today: The Triumph of the Cheap Phone

Basically saying that cheap phones are getting a better look because of the disappearance of two year contracts, and the fact that cheap phones are getting good enough. Unfortunately they don't mention any Windows Phones, but the commenters take care of some of that.

There's a lot of good stuff in there!

Sent from whatever device I happen to be using today using Tapatalk

 

[jdhooghe]

Just switched carriers to Verizon and after my experience with the 920 and seeing the continual degradation of each windows phone os from its predecessor, I am happy to pay more for a quality phone with quality software.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[worldspy99]

Yes I mentioned that the difference will be transparency of the phone's actual cost. I question though whether it will matter. iPhone users already know they are paying more, and don't care.

I think there are plenty of iPhone users who will be shocked to find the actual cost of the device and will just hold onto their current device a bit longer. A co-worker of mine asked me to put a screen protector on her cracked glass once she found out what she would have to pay for a new iPhone 6 since she does not want to ditch Verizon...

 

[rhapdog]

I also think people may start taking better care of their phones when they realize how much they cost.

I also think those subsidies are part of what made iPhone so accessible and popular in the US.

 

[Visa Declined]

They're only separating the cost of the phone from the plan. They're still offering payment plans for the phone

This is exactly what T-Mobile has been doing for a while now, and phone prices haven't "shocked" the phone buying public in any way what so ever. You can still walk in and get an iPhone 6 with no money down, so nothing has changed at all.

None of the big 4 U.S. carriers are going to require you to pay for your phone completely up front.

 

[tgp]

This is exactly what T-Mobile has been doing for a while now, and phone prices haven't "shocked" the phone buying public in any way what so ever. You can still walk in and get an iPhone 6 with no money down, so nothing has changed at all.

None of the big 4 U.S. carriers are going to require you to pay for your phone completely up front.

This is what I believe too. T-Mobile has been doing it for awhile already. I don't think it's going to make a measurable difference in buying habits.

 

[Krystianpants]

What may help windows phone is that companies who do windows 10 laptops/tablets and they also do android phones may decide to move to windows phone to have all their products unified. That way if someone buys a windows phone and are in the market for a laptop/tablet they may pick a similar brand to their phone due to good experience. With universal apps that would help out greatly. And if the OEMs do push it like crazy and you walk by a phone kiosk and see all these windows phones. You will think, hmm what are these. But if you have one hiding in the corner and pouting, no one will even care.

 

[rhapdog]

None of the big 4 U.S. carriers are going to require you to pay for your phone completely up front.

Even if they did, they could always use their Visa. No, that's Declined. Perhaps American Express? Haha1

Yes, people will still make a down payment and monthly payments, however, now the price of the phone will be "known" to the consumer. Whereas before, it was just, "Oh, you're on a contract. You can have this phone for $1 (or $99, or whatever)." The sheer number of people that didn't realize they were actually for it with their contract is ludicrous.

Now people will see, "Oh, I'm paying $99, plus $59 per month for 2 years? Really?" It won't stop everyone from buying, but there are some people out there that will now say, "Okay, I'm going to shop around and see what I can find. It might be cheaper in the long run to pay one out on my Visa card at a 3rd party retailer, because will also double my warranty." Amazon.com, Best Buy, and others may see a slight uptick in phone sales from it in the long term.

The Lumia 635 GoPhone was available for $49 at Walmart and on Amazon. At AT&T, the same GoPhone was $99.99. Why? Because AT&T needs to pay their store employees, etc. I learned from a Walmart manager that their cost on the 635 GoPhone was actually $35, so they made just under $15 per phone. Considering they don't have to train employees to help customers with the phones that they sell, they have a much lower overhead. I think a lot more people, when they realize they can save $25 per month purchasing a phone outright may start to consider less costly alternatives. By a lot more, I don't mean a majority, simply a lot more people than do now, simply because their eyes will be opened.

When I explained how it all works to my Father-in-law, he and my mother-in-law went out and purchased no-contract phones on the spot, and they haven't been on contract since. He won't buy phone insurance either. "I pay less than $50 for a new phone, so why should I pay monthly for insurance that requires a $50 deductible when I can buy a new phone for the $50." He's right, too, at least for him.

 

[Laura Knotek]

What may help windows phone is that companies who do windows 10 laptops/tablets and they also do android phones may decide to move to windows phone to have all their products unified. That way if someone buys a windows phone and are in the market for a laptop/tablet they may pick a similar brand to their phone due to good experience. With universal apps that would help out greatly. And if the OEMs do push it like crazy and you walk by a phone kiosk and see all these windows phones. You will think, hmm what are these. But if you have one hiding in the corner and pouting, no one will even care.

That would be nice but I don't think Lenovo, Sony, Samsung, Dell will be doing that soon.

Dell got out of phones completely. Sony isn't doing well in phones or PCs. Samsung has Tizen.

Lenovo might be the best bet.but they already said they're streamlining their phone division, not introducing more products.

 

[Bill Sherman1]

Windows needs more than just the loss of subsidies to make inroads into the market. They need a phone that works. They need to partner with a hardware vendor that wants to make quality and they need software that is reliable. My Android and Apple friends never receive notices to reboot their device. And they have never complained about missing a call because their device powered off.
Full disclosure: I do not have any friends with Windows so maybe I just have a lemon. If so, it would seem a coincidence since the Windows computers that I work with have the same attributes.
I wish that I did not hate Apple so much. Windows will lose until they learn how to win. That will take more than a few thousand layoffs at Nokia.

 

[gordonfink]

One area to get the shaft, at least with ATT, is their requirements to buy a more expensive data plan if you don't buy a phone through next.

My daughter's iPhone 5 bit the dust pretty badly. When I went to change the screen the frame was so bent that I couldn't get the screen in. So, then I'm look at buying a new frame also. I'm $100 into rebuilding an iphone 5.

I decided I would, for the first time in about 8 years, buy into a 2 year contract, and get her an iPhone 6. All's good on a net plan, but I wanted to buy it outright (at a reduced 2-yr contract). BY not using Next to make the purchase, they were going to require a new, more expensive data plan.

My sensibilities would not allow me to lock into a 2 yr contract, and pay more than I pay now, which is plenty enough with 5 lines on my account.

So, I bought the parts, and tomorrow her phone undergoes the Lazarus treatment.

 

[Keith Wallace]

This is extremely misguided. Rumors have sat around for quite a bit that the high-end Lumias' off-contract prices should be right in-line with what the competition's flagships carry. At one point, it was even rumored that they could cost MORE than the iPhone 6. More importantly, this already existed and accomplished nothing.

When the Lumia 920 came out, it was rocking the same chip as the Galaxy S III and was available for $100 on-contract. Only a couple of weeks after it launched, the 920 was down to $50 on-contract for Black Friday (as someone who bought in on November 9, I was actually able to get the $50 difference back). Oh, and buyers were getting the wireless charging plate for free. So, I paid $50 for my Lumia 920 AND the wireless charger. I think the Galaxy S III was $150 at the time, maybe even still $200. Basically, Nokia had put out a phone with the same chip, MUCH better optics, wireless charging, more storage, more color options, a $50 accessory for free, AND the 920 were $50-100 cheaper. What good did that do Windows Phone? It barely moved the needle, the platform stagnated for 2 years while the hardware was ignored, and the app market's stagnation followed suit.

The only reason you might see cheaper Windows 10 Mobile flagships is because they'll be running inferior hardware. Samsung and Apple are expected to put out new devices around the same time with their newest and best chips, those being upgrades on chips that already outperformed the disappointing SD 810. Plus, we're allegedly only going to see carrier carry the 808-packing 950, with the 810's 950 XL possibly tucked away in the Microsoft Stores, making them low-visibility devices that will require greater upfront commitments from folks (the REAL sticker shock for phones comes when you buy that first flagship outright).

I just don't see any actual logic or proof behind this thread. It's assumption that doesn't account for the fact that history has somewhat proven otherwise. We're just going to have ANOTHER Windows launch where apps are promised, thanks to the delayed app emulators.