Prediction: the death of phone subsidies will be great for Windows Phone in the US

[rhapdog]

More people would probably flash Cyanogen than anything else.

And Android owner with the technical know-how to do the flashing would probably go with Cyanogen, yes. Personally, I think the only ones that will be flashing Windows 10 on Android Flagship phones in the future will be Windows 10 enthusiasts who are adept at flashing, and that windows enthusiast wants to purchase the flagship for the express purpose of putting Windows 10 on it. I don't think people are going to buy Android and then decide, "Oh, I think I'll change to Windows 10, because it's better." The average person will simply purchase a phone with Windows 10 already on it if that's what they want.

 

[rhapdog]

More people would probably flash Cyanogen than anything else.

And Android owner with the technical know-how to do the flashing would probably go with Cyanogen, yes. Personally, I think the only ones that will be flashing Windows 10 on Android Flagship phones in the future will be Windows 10 enthusiasts who are adept at flashing, and that windows enthusiast wants to purchase the flagship for the express purpose of putting Windows 10 on it. I don't think people are going to buy Android and then decide, "Oh, I think I'll change to Windows 10, because it's better." The average person will simply purchase a phone with Windows 10 already on it if that's what they want.

 

[harmon rabb]

I think if the phone stores stuck an $80 lumia 640 in front of people and had them try it vs a $600 apple/samsung, and people were aware of those prices, Windows phone could pick up market share.

I have a s6 on one line, a lumia 640 on the other, and I still can't believe how good the 640 is. It's definitely not on par with the s6.. But the s6 sure isn't worth eight 640s.

And hilariously in some ways, the 640 is better. It never lags. It never fritzes out. The battery easily lasts 3x what the s6 battery does.

 

[lparsons21]

I've been reading here and there, and there are good points made in this thread. But until there are more models across a size/price available at more carriers, the problem won't go away. Today I went into a Verizon store, a Lumia 735 and an LG Lancet were the only ones there. At $192 and $120 respectively that isn't bad. Then I went to the ATT store, they only sell the 640XL for $249. Sweet phone, but ATT is missing some lower priced ones and Verizon is missing a bigger one. That's NOT the way to sell Windows Phones!

Add in that the Verizon sales droids all push away from WP. T-Mobile has some low end WP and I'm sure some of the others do too. But it seems none have a good selection at all.

 

[falconrap]

This isn't really that easy of a call either way. An iPhone 6 is, at Verizon $0 down for QUALIFIED customers. There are a lot of people who don't qualify for these $0 down plans. Those folks then have to pay a down payment on the phone, plus the sales tax on it. When that happens, and you see a Lumia 640 sitting there for well under $100 outright...there may be a few more folks who go that route. Quite frankly, a slight up tick of a couple percent of people would make a noticeable dent in market share. Add in those who will finally buy again with new flagships coming out for WP, and maybe we might see something around 5% by the end of next year. Hard to really tell, but it will be harder for people to ignore Windows Phones when they see some of the benefits and familiarity that they come with.

I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll at least see a nice uptick in the market share here. Worldwide, I think the new flagships will help to drive a lot more sales in Europe, India, and South America, and that this could end up pushing WP over the 5% mark in total worldwide market share which could start the snowball. We'll see.

 

[lparsons21]

While I'd love to see WP get some more market share so that it becomes more viable for the developer community to provide more apps and certainly more specific corporate/gear apps, the problem remains that there are fewer new models of WP in total and each carrier only wants or has one or two of them at any given time.

With the dropping of subsidies the reasonable expectation should be that all WP phones should be unlocked and made to work on all carriers. Isn't that the way it is outside of the US? The US market is the way it is because of the way phones were packaged by the carriers with subsidies. The carriers all bragged about the no-cost phone, yet that wasn't what they ever had. From day one, we the consumer paid for those phones in total. Either hidden in the subscription and fees, or with one or the other programs such as Edge. I even did a little math and it turns out that the cost to have the service and the phone, regardless of how it was structured, is nearly the same whether you buy the phone, lease the phone or had all of it buried in contract deal.

I'm looking for a WP and am very frustrated. My choices are as follows, none of them ideal:
1. Stay with Verizon which is the best service for me and get one of the small WP they are peddling.
2. Stay with Verizon and play the ebay crap shoot for a bigger WP
3. Move to another carrier if they have a WP that I like. ATT has the 640XL which would meet my needs, but their service is not quite so good here.
4. Move to some smaller carrier, but that's not so good when you live in the boondocks!! Tmobile has recently gotten their high speed data in parts of the local area, but in a big part of this area they have no coverage at all.

Staying with Verizon has the benefit of the lowest out of pocket up front costs. Moving means paying off Edge on the iPhone 6+ and the cost of the new phone.

 

[rhapdog]

Moving means paying off Edge on the iPhone 6+ and the cost of the new phone.

See if you can find a buyer that will cover that cost. Only advice I have right now. I won't make a suggestion that might turn out to be the wrong choice for you. I also live in the boondocks. Luckily, it's an area where AT&T has solid coverage. Verizon is rather stable, but not as much as AT&T in my particular area. Forget T-Mobile and Sprint where I live. No network for miles around.

 

[lparsons21]

Thanks for the suggestion and I had thought about just paying off the iPhone and peddling it on Ebay, but that's not such a good idea imo. I use a couple banking apps and my finance manager on it and those apps are not available on a WP unfortunately. I gave serious thought to getting a Lumia 640 Go Phone as it meets my needs/wants for a bigger screen, and it certainly is well priced. I could get it and the $30/month plan that has no data and use my Verizon data via personal hotspot or wifi. That actually would work fairly well.
Hmm.... I just did some math.
640+30 plan over 24 months amortization is $33/month
735+20 fee over 24 months amortization is $28/month
So I could have one number on ATT, one on VZW and the penalty is $60 total over 2 years.
Now need to read up on the 640.
For some reason your post made me do some thinking out of the box a bit. Thanks!!

 

[welsbloke]

The concept of separating the cost of the phone from the contract will not stop people from buying phone from the provider it will though make the cost more pronounced. Currently in the UK the majority of phones are purchased with a contract and its true cost hidden. If they cared to pay attention they would see the cost hidden in the contract but they in my opinion rarely look. However splitting the cost of the phone from the contract which is also something which is beginning to happen in the UK will almost certainly make folks consider the cost of the phone this is after all the result of transparency. Will this affect high end devices, sure it has too will the Windows Phone benefit maybe but to be honest it stands a better chance of a surge through the universal windows 10 programme.

 

[eshy]

Once in a while I meet people with a 2.5-3 year old iPhone on a subsidized plan who won't upgrade because they don't want to spend the $200. They're always shocked when I explain they're still paying $25-30 every month for the phone and the longer they wait the more they actually pay for that phone.

People are generally clueless about phone prices, even tech writers don't always get it (remember when that CNET "journalist" compared the $100 iPhone 5C and $100 Lumia 520?)

Now that US carriers are moving away from subsidized phones I think a lot of iPhone owners will get a sticker shock and complain about Apple raising prices. I'm sure some of them will go looking for alternatives in the midrange but many will just get on the payment plan since the total monthly cost will stay the same.

T-Mobile has made that change a while ago, they're still selling lots of iPhones

 

[realwarder]

Some will get on a payment plan but some will wake up to the true cost of the iPhone.

 

[sweatshopking]

subsidies aren't going anywhere, and even if they were, it'll mean jack for WP.

 

[Joe920]

Phew, glad we got that settled! #endofthread

 

[HeyCori]

As others have pointed out, customers are easily duped into signing a contract. In America we sign contracts without bating an eye. It's like we are not adapt at evaluating long term costs. When that AT&T rep asks, "Do you want to pay $0 for the 16GB iPhone 6 Plus on Next or pay $300 subsidized?" people focus on that $0 and go blank about anything else.

I've seen tons of people that pay $100+ a month for service and they don't even flinch. That's "normal." They don't consider that at $100+ a month, they've paid for their device several times over.

I understand where the OP is coming from, it makes total sense that the carrier's new pricing plans would drive people to cheaper phones. However, carriers are great at hiding costs. I just tried this out at AT&T:

iPhone 16GB iPhone 6 Plus + Next + 2GB of data = $52 down / $80 a month
iPhone 16GB iPhone 6 Plus + 2-year contract + 2GB of data = $321 down / $70 a month
(the down payment includes taxes and other fees)

That's an easy pitch for a sales rep. Pay $321 up front, or get the same phone/service for $52 up front and a measly $10 extra a month? People aren't even going to think twice about that $52 before signing up.

You might be thinking, isn't $80 a month for 2.5GB of data a terrible deal? OF COURSE! And going up in the data tier doesn't get any better but that hasn't stopped people from paying.

So no, I don't think moving away from subsidizes is the shot in the arm that WP needs.

I'm going to go in a different direction and say that it would be more beneficial for WP (and customers in general) if they move away from the big four and switch to MNVOs. It's mindboggling that $100+ a month for one device is considered acceptable. I'm on Cricket (which is technically owned by AT&T) and I'm on the cheap 2.5GB plan. On AT&T, that plan is $70-$80 bucks. On Cricket I pay $35.

More people need to realize that they're paying too damn much. I understand that some people live in areas where they're forced to stick with the big four, and that sucks. However, better deals are out there and people should take advantage of them. I think once people analyze their monthly costs, suddenly cheaper phones on different carriers doesn't seem like such a bad idea. Granted, that would require a monumental shift in how the public thinks about their cell phone and plan.

 

[Beantool]

This was the best read I've had on these forums in some time. Thank you OP and all subsequent contributors.

 

[falconrap]

What I do think people are forgetting is that, in the past, when you paid a contract, you always paid the same amount no matter the cost of the phone, with the down payment being the sole differentiator. Even once the contract ended, and the phone was clearly paid off, you still forked over that same amount. Now the cost of the phone service, is separated out. You pay the difference between phone models in the subsidy. In situations where people are tight on money, and $10-15/mo means something to them, they'll opt for the cheaper phones, and Microsoft can pick up quite a few there. Right now, this is probably the one area that they are doing best in in the US. They need flagships that people want, however, to really move the people that have more money. This is where the only chance at significant growth comes in.

 

[tgp]

What I do think people are forgetting is that, in the past, when you paid a contract, you always paid the same amount no matter the cost of the phone, with the down payment being the sole differentiator. Even once the contract ended, and the phone was clearly paid off, you still forked over that same amount. Now the cost of the phone service, is separated out.

By the end of a 2 year contract it is normally high time to be replacing a smartphone. I doubt whether many smartphone users go much past the 2 year mark without upgrading. Some do of course, but probably not a high percentage.

 

[falconrap]

By the end of a 2 year contract it is normally high time to be replacing a smartphone. I doubt whether many smartphone users go much past the 2 year mark without upgrading. Some do of course, but probably not a high percentage.

Yes. But when I got my Icon via Edge on Verizon, the wireless plan itself was notably cheaper than the contract plan I have. Then I could either use my current phone, or purchase a phone via Edge, which is what I did. Still had to put money down for it. The Edge subsidy is separate of the contract price, and the contract price is now cheaper than it used to be to reflect the separation. If they were still charging the same, I could see the point being made, but they aren't. My total bill actually went down slight due to the Edge discount on my service plan. I was paying like $5 less per month total (Edge and service combined).

 

[lparsons21]

I like the way Verizon is doing it now.
Each phone is $20/month - unlimited talk/text and a bunch of other 'services'
Data is seperate - I'm on the Medium @$45/month shared, 3Gb.
Cost of phone is seperate. I could either bring my own, buy one for full price and pay either on Edge or in full. I like that!

Access and data w/o taxes and fees with my military discount is $58.75/month. I can double the data for $15 more. While that isn't the cheapest of deals, it is pretty darned good.

 

[Doohickie]

That said, I do wonder how much MS is working with manufacturers to help them offer two flavors of the same device, Android and WP10.

I don't think MS is doing much of that at all. I think that's why they bought Nokia smartphones, so they wouldn't have to mess with that. They have an in-house HW division, why do they care about other HW providers? (i.e., typical MS hubris)