10-08-2015 10:02 PM
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  1. Keith Wallace's Avatar
    The problem is that failed for BlackBerry. Adding the Android runtime destroyed native BlackBerry app development and failed to improve market share. Now BlackBerry is releasing an Android device.

    If that succeeds, then BlackBerry 10 is dead. If that fails, then BlackBerry will most likely exit the handset market completely.
    Firstly, you say that like Blackberry made a mistake with the Android emulation. They weren't exactly backing down from a position of strength. It was a gamble necessitated by a dead ecosystem. Their alternative was to sit and play in the dirt, because for as bad as we say WP app support is, BB10 was even worse.

    Secondly, the two instances aren't quite the same. W10M seems to be taking more liberties to get foreign app code to integrate thoroughly with W10M services, while integrating some level of W10M design as well. I never had a BB10 device (or knew someone with one), but it sounded like the OS did things in a very clunky, desperate manner. Astoria similarly sounds desperate, but it also sounds like it's been developed more intelligently, and more thoroughly. It won't have to deal with things like varied methods of input, it just needs to align some slight visual differences.

    Thirdly, BB10 was screwed from the get-go. Not many cared about the thing, or even knew it existed. The advent of W10 Universal apps will get W10M offerings (and re-compiled stuff from Android and iOS) more attention because of hybrids and tablets and Xbox One and phones, which should be more prevalent than BB10 ever was, even if they're an overall failure. BB10 would never have hoped for the kind of user base W10M will potentially tap into, simply because 100 million people are allegedly on the PC platform already. That's free marketing in a way, the fact that W10M is on a computer will clue people in to what Lumias are in a very natural, simple way.
    a5cent and Kjetil Stokke like this.
    10-01-2015 03:21 AM
  2. Tien-Lin Chang's Avatar
    Selling at a loss benefits no one.
    Not the consumer, not shareholders nor Microsoft. I've said it before, the people who make or break network based devices are those with the keys and the patents for entry to that space. That includes people like Facebook, google, Snapchat, Instagram and a few others with dumb stuff kids that spend all day doing. In short, if those businesses continue to make it impossible for Microsoft to exist in that space, it simply will not exist in that space. Period.

    Microsoft has to do what Netflix has done and that is to flip the script. Netflix innovated around companies like Blockbuster and its brick and mortar stores because it saw that people could wait a day to get a video in the mail and its model eliminated those dang late fees.

    Its now doing to Cox, Comcast, Directv and Dish what it did to Blockbuster and people are cutting cords by the thousands. Granted, Netflix isn't doing it alone but they have helped spawn tons of other internet based streaming services, including Amazon Prime.

    I trust Microsoft is up to something huge with Windows 10 and whatever it is will require all parts of that company to pull its own weight. From Azure to operating systems to Office to Phones and everything in between and it has the infrastructure to do it.. I don't see that happening by selling at a loss.
    It's funny how much trust you have to MS as if they have a whole new business model can shake the market with W10M punch.

    I didn't see MS being able to create new business mode in the past 25 years. The three big things they have successed beside computer OS is all based on similar strategy :
    1)IE : give away free software (lost money) and make it defult inside the OS to sink enermy
    2)office : keep a blind eye to crack users (lost money) and special file format to expend user base and isolated from other products
    3)Xbox : they simply lost money (huge ads and make very little to non profit from the device selling) to tear the market dominated by japanese brands

    I don't see convincing hint, press or market movement supporting the fact that they will do it differently this time.
    10-01-2015 04:44 AM
  3. Jazmac's Avatar
    It's funny how much trust you have to MS as if they have a whole new business model can shake the market with W10M punch.

    I didn't see MS being able to create new business mode in the past 25 years. The three big things they have successed beside computer OS is all based on similar strategy :
    1)IE : give away free software (lost money) and make it defult inside the OS to sink enermy
    2)office : keep a blind eye to crack users (lost money) and special file format to expend user base and isolated from other products
    3)Xbox : they simply lost money (huge ads and make very little to non profit from the device selling) to tear the market dominated by japanese brands

    I don't see convincing hint, press or market movement supporting the fact that they will do it differently this time.
    And even if you don't know to use it, they make a great spell check too.
    10-01-2015 08:34 AM
  4. Krystianpants's Avatar
    We can only dream...

    Highly doubt MS will discount below what the market is dictating for a similar spec'd device, I'm going to say here in Canada the 950 will be priced $800+ while the 950XL will be around 900-950+, have a sneaky suspicion though we might not even see the 950XL in the great white north if history continues to repeat itself. Considering the overpriced L830 is still holding strong at $500 here I can't see them only tacking on another $100-$150 for something immensely superior spec wise, my only hope is next week will be revealing enough in that we'll have a better idea where WP/W10M will be heading in the short term.

    "Darling, you gotta let me know Should I stay or should I go?"
    I agree that Canada always gets screwed over. With our shrinking dollar even if the price is say 600 in the US it will convert to $795 here. Plus our HST taxes at 13% it will end up being $900. So that's pretty insane. And btw I got my lumia 830 a while back for 399$ from Fido. It's locked but unlock codes are cheap.
    slivy58 likes this.
    10-01-2015 09:16 AM
  5. a5cent's Avatar
    The problem is that failed for BlackBerry. Adding the Android runtime destroyed native BlackBerry app development and failed to improve market share. Now BlackBerry is releasing an Android device.

    If that succeeds, then BlackBerry 10 is dead. If that fails, then BlackBerry will most likely exit the handset market completely.
    The approaches only look similar on the surface. I don't think BB's fate is in any way a useful indicator of where W10M is most likely headed. There are just far too many differences.

    When BB introduced Android compatibility, they eliminated any reason companies had to develop native BB phone apps. The unrestricted availability of Astoria and Islandwood will do the same for MS, as their existence leaves no economically sane reason to continue investing directly into the Windows smartphone app ecosystem. I'm referring specifically to those types of apps that are targeted directly at phones and have no ambitions to run on anything else, which currently comprises the overwhelming majority of all the apps in the WP app store.

    In contrast to BB however, MS will retain an ecosystem which it hopes developers will deem worthy of investments, which is obviously the UWP. I suspect the first developers to care about this will most likely be corporations with their LOB applications, looking to reduce software development costs for their mobile workforce. If consumers get anything out of this likely depends on how much demand consumers create for such apps in MS' unified W10 app store. IMHO MS is betting everything on that working out. If it does, it's likely that many of those apps will eventually include phone UI's too. Even apps that don't include a phone UI may still reasonably be installed on WM devices however, at least if you occasionally dock your phone and use continuum.

    If Islandwood works well, we could potentially also whiteness a dynamic working in the opposite direction, where increased demand in the W10 store would motivate developers to extend their apps (which started life on iOS) to UWP, so they can sell them to people using Windows tablets and PCs. This is one of the most interesting capabilities MS is gaining by compiling UWP compatible apps from iOS source code.

    There are a dozen other things that also play into this, but that should already make it clear that this situation isn't directly comparable to BB's. With the adoption of Android, BB sacrificed their entire ecosystem. With the adoption of Astoria and Islandwood, MS is sacrificing investment into Windows phone apps, but hoping investment into the UWP will eventually make up for it, which Islandwood could ironically play a role in facilitating.
    Guytronic and Kjetil Stokke like this.
    10-01-2015 09:43 AM
  6. HoosierDaddy's Avatar
    Should New Lumia Devices be sold at a a loss?
    YES, but only the days I buy one.

    This thread reminds me of the classic bit by Albert Einstein (stage name: Albert Brooks):

    10-01-2015 09:55 AM
  7. Richpl's Avatar
    Selling at a loss will push the manufacturers to use cheaper materials which leads to poor products. In most cases.
    Jazmac and JoyfullJuneBug like this.
    10-01-2015 10:00 AM
  8. nohra's Avatar
    I agree that it's necessary to price these very aggressively low, not only to pull people away from other phones, but also to convince existing WP users to upgrade rather than continue waiting. With the loss of the old 2 year contract system of getting phones, I'm a lot less likely to get a new phone as often as I used to be. If it's priced close to the 830 I may be tempted, but anything higher and I'll just continue to wait.
    Robinator likes this.
    10-01-2015 10:35 AM
  9. slivy58's Avatar
    I agree that Canada always gets screwed over. With our shrinking dollar even if the price is say 600 in the US it will convert to $795 here. Plus our HST taxes at 13% it will end up being $900. So that's pretty insane. And btw I got my lumia 830 a while back for 399$ from Fido. It's locked but unlock codes are cheap.
    Isn't "screwed" our middle name LOL. I purchased my L830 the first day it was available in western Canada, couldn't find any prices lower or at least didn't see any, suppose would have been better to wait a month or two and probably something to consider with the "soon to be" new arrival(s) in hopes of a price cut (yeah ok), always a smart move but not necessarily an easy thing to refrain from doing or at least not in my case anyways haahaha.
    Krystianpants likes this.
    10-01-2015 10:53 AM
  10. tgp's Avatar
    I agree that it's necessary to price these very aggressively low, not only to pull people away from other phones, but also to convince existing WP users to upgrade rather than continue waiting.
    You have a good point here. The lower the price, the higher the sales. That is Sales 101.

    There is also a downside to low prices, and that is perception of quality. We as consumers tend to base quality on how much a product costs. If the iPhone 6S+ cost $350, it would not be perceived as high quality. Customer satisfaction would undoubtedly be lower. Sure, more would sell, but at lower profit and lower customer satisfaction.
    10-01-2015 11:09 AM
  11. Krystianpants's Avatar
    The approaches only look similar on the surface. I don't think BB's fate is in any way a useful indicator of where W10M is most likely headed. There are just far too many differences.

    When BB introduced Android compatibility, they eliminated any reason companies had to develop native BB phone apps. The unrestricted availability of Astoria and Islandwood will do the same for MS, as their existence leaves no economically sane reason to continue investing directly into the Windows smartphone app ecosystem. I'm referring specifically to those types of apps that are targeted directly at phones and have no ambitions to run on anything else, which currently comprises the overwhelming majority of all the apps in the WP app store.

    In contrast to BB however, MS will retain an ecosystem which it hopes developers will deem worthy of investments, which is obviously the UWP. I suspect the first developers to care about this will most likely be corporations with their LOB applications, looking to reduce software development costs for their mobile workforce. If consumers get anything out of this likely depends on how much demand consumers create for such apps in MS' unified W10 app store. IMHO MS is betting everything on that working out. If it does, it's likely that many of those apps will eventually include phone UI's too. Even apps that don't include a phone UI may still reasonably be installed on WM devices however, at least if you occasionally dock your phone and use continuum.

    If Islandwood works well, we could potentially also whiteness a dynamic working in the opposite direction, where increased demand in the W10 store would motivate developers to extend their apps (which started life on iOS) to UWP, so they can sell them to people using Windows tablets and PCs. This is one of the most interesting capabilities MS is gaining by compiling UWP compatible apps from iOS source code.

    There are a dozen other things that also play into this, but that should already make it clear that this situation isn't directly comparable to BB's. With the adoption of Android, BB sacrificed their entire ecosystem. With the adoption of Astoria and Islandwood, MS is sacrificing investment into Windows phone apps, but hoping investment into the UWP will eventually make up for it, which Islandwood could ironically play a role in facilitating.
    Not to mention blackberry had a separate store for android apps. The phone OS was also not really worth keeping as there was nothing interesting about it and no great features. They didn't create any developer tools to make things easy for people to actually create blackberry apps based off their android code. Visual studio is being created with cross platform development in mind. A developer doesn't have to use xcode or a java xde and visual studio to create apps for all 3 platforms. Everything can be done in Visual studio. You can also do this in a single language like C# but still have hooks for something like ios metal which will only target the ios app. It's really their developer tools that stand out in all of this.
    ajj3085 likes this.
    10-01-2015 11:12 AM
  12. Spectrum90's Avatar
    Microsoft phone division is losing $500 million per quarter. They're already selling at a loss.
    10-01-2015 11:18 AM
  13. Rose640's Avatar
    Microsoft phone division is losing $500 million per quarter. They're already selling at a loss.
    2 billions per year? Where did you get that info, kinda sounds unbelievable, you can verify that?
    10-01-2015 11:38 AM
  14. tgp's Avatar
    Microsoft phone division is losing $500 million per quarter. They're already selling at a loss.
    That comes out to about $50 loss per device. An interesting point about this number is that it is thought that Microsoft earns about $2 billion/year from Android royalties, the same amount as WP losses.

    This is of course assuming that your number here is accurate.
    10-01-2015 11:54 AM
  15. Spectrum90's Avatar
    2 billions per year? Where did you get that info, kinda sounds unbelievable, you can verify that?
    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...ays-canaccord/

    It can be deduced from the financial reports. For the last quarter I got losses over $600 million. It was getting worse.
    a5cent likes this.
    10-01-2015 11:55 AM
  16. Mad Cabbie's Avatar
    Personally, I don't think it's got a lot to do with price. Windows Phone has a stigma attached, somewhat wrongly. If the 950 was 150, people would still buy the iBone of Samdung edge / edge plus, along with the plethora of devices that are basically the same. I would say for 60 - 70% of the mobile users, its about bragging rights, showing off and basically portraying an image. Networks love the fact that android has a new device every hour, and at the price they are. O2 in the UK, now offer a 'refresh' contract. Basically, everytime iBone or scamdroid has a new device available, mugs go into the shop and pay off the outstanding balance of their phone contract, Not there airtime contract. Bearing in mind they list the Galaxy Edge at just under 700, you would think people would avoid them. Do they? Do they hell.

    My brother works for O2, and the refresh contract is the biggest scam going, with people tying themselves in knots and debt, for a phone that allows them to portray a lie.

    So, IMHO cut price phones won't work. In UK the 640, a very capable device, is 100. Do you see them everywhere?? The 435, a great little device for your child at 30, they should be everywhere, but they aren't. Strangely, the fab 640xl, is proving very, very popular at 159. Great eh? But there is a snag!! Try finding a high street phone shop that stocks them. The only place you can get one is Argos!!!!

    I think this is more than price, apps and stigma. How do you sell WP to the users of 'sexy' fashion accessories
    The marketing needs to be reassessed, and it won't be easy😌
    Kjetil Stokke likes this.
    10-01-2015 12:05 PM
  17. justonlumia's Avatar
    The 640 and XL are doing well due to their fantastic price, for the first time after 520 I am seeing WP devices outside more frequently. I even convinced 3 people to buy 640XL who wanted to buy Zenfone 2 and Moto G
    10-01-2015 12:15 PM
  18. a5cent's Avatar
    2 billions per year? Where did you get that info, kinda sounds unbelievable, you can verify that?
    It's definitely not unbelievable. You're likely dramatically underestimating the effort required to engineer the software and hardware for these things. Google doesn't even develop hardware and they've also had quarters where they've invested $500 million into Android software development.

    I doubt the losses for 2015 will be as high as they were for 2014, primarily because MS let a lot of folks from ex-Nokia go. I don't think that changes Spectrum's basic statement though. Unless WM suddenly becomes very popular and these devices sell in droves, they will likely be selling at a loss at any conceivable price.

    Pricing these slightly below the iPhone is justified. For people who don't want to spend a lot of money on smartphones, there are other places to look than the high-end.

    Most people won't even spend $400 or $300 on a smartphone. If you wanted to chase market share with these phones, they would have to be sold below their manufacturing costs, never mind engineering costs. That's not what these devices are for. No company can afford to chase market share with high-end phones. If that's what you're hoping for you're living in fantasy-land.
    Last edited by a5cent; 10-01-2015 at 12:28 PM. Reason: last paragraph
    10-01-2015 12:16 PM
  19. Reebs Reebs's Avatar
    this temporary spike might be the reason for major apps to adopt the platform and might have a cycle effect. you got to start somewhere... and maybe thats' the push needed to get the cart rolling.
    10-01-2015 01:05 PM
  20. Krystianpants's Avatar
    That comes out to about $50 loss per device. An interesting point about this number is that it is thought that Microsoft earns about $2 billion/year from Android royalties, the same amount as WP losses.

    This is of course assuming that your number here is accurate.
    Yet Windows phone users get angry that MS makes android/ios apps. They use this money to actually be able to work on windows 10 mobile and other projects and continue trying to get into the mobile market.
    Kjetil Stokke likes this.
    10-01-2015 01:55 PM
  21. jlzimmerman's Avatar
    The only way MS is going to really move the 950 and 950 XL is to market the hell out of them. Market them well. Market them smartly. Show people why they should buy one and what it can do. If MS does their typical **** poor marketing it will sell as well as the Icon and 930, which will do nothing for marketshare and more importantly, developer interest. I pray to God that the pricing from the link below is false.
    http://wmpoweruser.com/spanish-prici...ts-not-pretty/

    Yes, the iPhone 6 and 6S go for a ridiculous $749 and $649, but iOS is proven, has good reputation, and apps. If the 950XL and 950 go for more than $500/330/€450 you can kiss sales goodbye. Nobody outside of current WP users are going open up their wallet and drop this kind of coin on an unknown phone with an iffy ecosystem by a company that is still trying to climb out of a bad reputation.
    10-01-2015 02:02 PM
  22. Krystianpants's Avatar
    It's definitely not unbelievable. You're likely dramatically underestimating the effort required to engineer the software and hardware for these things. Google doesn't even develop hardware and they've also had quarters where they've invested $500 million into Android software development.

    I doubt the losses for 2015 will be as high as they were for 2014, primarily because MS let a lot of folks from ex-Nokia go. I don't think that changes Spectrum's basic statement though. Unless WM suddenly becomes very popular and these devices sell in droves, they will likely be selling at a loss at any conceivable price.

    Pricing these slightly below the iPhone is justified. For people who don't want to spend a lot of money on smartphones, there are other places to look than the high-end.

    Most people won't even spend $400 or $300 on a smartphone. If you wanted to chase market share with these phones, they would have to be sold below their manufacturing costs, never mind engineering costs. That's not what these devices are for. No company can afford to chase market share with high-end phones. If that's what you're hoping for you're living in fantasy-land.
    While this is true. Sometimes I think of how the Surface line took off and as a result this caused a high spike of OEMs to start producing as they noticed the sales figures. Granted it took a few iterations to get it right for them. I would think they would try something similar with the phones. Not really about selling it at a low price, but simply making them more spectacular than anything else out there. And I imagine the next wave they are working on will be much better and these are there to keep the current fans from jumping ship. The fans who want high end specs on their platform. While I do think the design of the new high res leaks look nice, they are not what android/ios users are used to. And those complaining about the designs are almost sad because they just want to be able to show their android/ios fans that their phone looks better. We will see how things pan out with these phones. And of course if reviews on the phones are good on most major sites it could help drive sales. Unfortunately there is a lot of Apple bias among reviewers. Specifically non-tech news sites that also throw in tech stuff from time to time.
    10-01-2015 02:04 PM
  23. Rose640's Avatar
    It's definitely not unbelievable. You're likely dramatically underestimating the effort required to engineer the software and hardware for these things. Google doesn't even develop hardware and they've also had quarters where they've invested $500 million into Android software development.

    I doubt the losses for 2015 will be as high as they were for 2014, primarily because MS let a lot of folks from ex-Nokia go. I don't think that changes Spectrum's basic statement though. Unless WM suddenly becomes very popular and these devices sell in droves, they will likely be selling at a loss at any conceivable price.

    Pricing these slightly below the iPhone is justified. For people who don't want to spend a lot of money on smartphones, there are other places to look than the high-end.

    Most people won't even spend $400 or $300 on a smartphone. If you wanted to chase market share with these phones, they would have to be sold below their manufacturing costs, never mind engineering costs. That's not what these devices are for. No company can afford to chase market share with high-end phones. If that's what you're hoping for you're living in fantasy-land.
    I wasn't underestimating anything. Honestly i'm clueless about these stuff, numbers were never my thing. The reason i asked was simply cause i was wondering why would MS still continou making these phones, they're absolutely dominant on PC market.
    10-01-2015 02:06 PM
  24. Krystianpants's Avatar
    The only way MS is going to really move the 950 and 950 XL is to market the hell out of them. Market them well. Market them smartly. Show people why they should buy one and what it can do. If MS does their typical **** poor marketing it will sell as well as the Icon and 930, which will do nothing for marketshare and more importantly, developer interest. I pray to God that the pricing from the link below is false.
    Spanish pricing of Lumia 950 and 950 XL revealed, and its not pretty - WMPoweruser

    Yes, the iPhone 6 and 6S go for a ridiculous $749 and $649, but iOS is proven, has good reputation, and apps. If the 950XL and 950 go for more than $500/330/€450 you can kiss sales goodbye. Nobody outside of current WP users are going open up their wallet and drop this kind of coin on an unknown phone with an iffy ecosystem by a company that is still trying to climb out of a bad reputation.
    They did a really good job with the Windows 10 ads. I think MS really needs to show off the start screen. I actually showed an apple employee my start screen the other day and his words were "wow that's actually pretty cool". He just knows that plain start screen that MS sticks to with all their releases. they could make ads where they flash all kinds of different start screens they can have some artists create.
    Kjetil Stokke and MikeSo like this.
    10-01-2015 02:07 PM
  25. Krystianpants's Avatar
    I wasn't underestimating anything. Honestly i'm clueless about these stuff, numbers were never my thing. The reason i asked was simply cause i was wondering why would MS still continou making these phones, they're absolutely dominant on PC market.
    They have great share in some places. Someone on reddit posted a thread about how they went to Italy and the amount of apps that they have is insane. They actually have most major services and everything for Italians. And that's because they have dominance over ios.

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    JoyfullJuneBug likes this.
    10-01-2015 02:09 PM
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