10-08-2015 09:02 PM
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  1. KarateDad's Avatar
    So, we all know that Microsoft is coming out with new Lumia phones soon, the 950 and 950XL. Considering everything we know about these, from a hardware perspective they are great, but not really anything above what competitors have, or will have in a couple months.

    So that leaves the OS. While those of us here who know Windows Phone, have (mostly) come to love it, we are a very small percentage. And, here we are for the third time with a major re-build of the phone platform from MSFT in 5 years (WinMo 6->Windows Phone 7, Windows Phone 8-> Windows Mobile 10).

    Trying to get someone to move from their beloved iPhone, or the Android they've learned to live with to Windows 10 is going to be a hard sell. I mean MSTF has struggled with this, as evidenced by their ~3% market share.

    And now that the USA is largely moving away from subsidized phones (hooray), people have to think about the cost of their phones when they upgrade. It isn't just an automatic anymore.

    So, I think Microsoft should sell these new phones at either 0 profit, or even at a loss. If the phones could be $100 or more cheaper than the competitors, people might seriously consider them the next time upgrade. But seriously, if joe average is at the store, deciding on an upgrade, and he can get a new Android phone a new iPhone or a new Lumia all for roughly the same price, Microsoft will lose 98% of the time.

    If on the other hand, the Lumia was $100 or more cheaper, that percentage is surely to go up. If Microsoft could do this for a couple years, and actually get a foothold in market share, and then start to really show off the integration of windows 10 on your PC with windows 10 on your phone, THEN they can afford to start making a profit.

    We know Apple can't afford to discount their phones, it is their bread and butter. Samsung couldn't face their share holders with that message. Google probably could get away with it with the Nexus line, but they don't need to, they are winning. Microsoft could easily sell this idea to the share holders, IMHO.

    Mr. Nadella, are you listening ????

    Sincerely,
    A Long-term Loyal Microsoft customer!
    09-30-2015 02:19 PM
  2. Nogitsune Micah's Avatar
    Why not? They already are giving windows away free and they are already doing some controversial stuff such as android appson windows. If they want the marketshare to go up,then lower the price and undercut your competitors. They technically an afford to do this since they have a lot of cash. Lumia 950 $399 and Lumia 950 xl $449 to $499 with the continuum stuff an additional option
    09-30-2015 02:33 PM
  3. Laura Knotek's Avatar
    I feel that unless these devices are sold at lower price points they will not sell.

    If Microsoft prices these devices comparable to the iPhone 6s/6s+ or the Samsung Galaxy S6/S6 Edge/Note 5, then they will be DOA.
    09-30-2015 02:38 PM
  4. Rose640's Avatar
    Why don't you then ask them to wrap up 300$ in a box for a phone you paid 400$. I mean, no, you got a 80$ 640, and that's it. They offered a phone at a such a low cost so other platform users can experience windows for a bargain. So, nope, they won't be sold for 100$, not even in dreams, lol.
    09-30-2015 02:40 PM
  5. wpfan86's Avatar
    Why don't you then ask them to wrap up 300$ in a box for a phone you paid 400$. I mean, no, you got a 80$ 640, and that's it. They offered a phone at a such a low cost so other platform users can experience windows for a bargain. So, nope, they won't be sold for 100$, not even in dreams, lol.
    He didn't say they should be sold for $100. He said they should be $100 cheaper than the other phones.
    09-30-2015 02:49 PM
  6. HeyCori's Avatar
    Sold at a loss? No. On a video game console you have $60 games, subscription services and other ways to make up for that loss. With $1 apps it's going to be a long time before Microsoft makes up the difference. Instead I think MS should price it as close to the manufacturing cost as they can. Basically, if it costs $500 to make then sell it for $550. Don't sell it for $700, shoot for market share instead.

    Now if we're talking cheap devices (below the $100 dollar mark) selling at a loss probably isn't that bad of an idea.
    Last edited by HeyCori; 10-04-2015 at 04:57 PM.
    09-30-2015 02:58 PM
  7. theefman's Avatar
    Problem is Nadella has stated Microsoft is no longer interested in chasing marketshare with their phone business and instead will be moving away "from a strategy to grow a standalone phone business", in that scenario seems they would be less willing to take a loss on however many handsets they do manage to sell.
    a5cent, chuckdaly, rxc13 and 2 others like this.
    09-30-2015 03:13 PM
  8. xandros9's Avatar
    "Buying" users with that is only temporary. People value app selection and whatnot, especially if we're talking high-end phones where people are already dropping a couple/few hundred dollars.

    Sure it helps in the bottom, but I'm not sure if it'll make a huge dent when we get up to the big players.
    09-30-2015 03:28 PM
  9. Rose640's Avatar
    He didn't say they should be sold for $100. He said they should be $100 cheaper than the other phones.
    But again, way to low.

    I don't know, if i had those few hundred dollars i'd go for the 950/xl. I've no intention in switching platforms.
    09-30-2015 04:11 PM
  10. a5cent's Avatar
    Selling at zero profit or less means MS would remove any and all profit potential from the WP hardware market. This would make MS the scourge of the industry and draw the ire of companies who rely on smartphone profits to survive. By killing the profit potential in the WP market, MS would also turn away any OEMs currently thinking of releasing a WP device. I personally don't find engagement by other OEMs important, but many others here do.

    If MS wants other OEMs to engage, they must take the exact opposite approach, by asking well above average prices.

    I actually question whether MS is earning any money on these at all, even at $700. There is no set price at which a phone is guaranteed to make a profit, as it must first recoup the hundreds of millions MS invests in software and hardware engineering. That means the only way to make a profit is by selling high-end devices, with high margins, in large numbers... something high-end Lumias don't typically do.

    Assuming these won't sell in large numbers, it's safe to say these devices are already losing MS money at almost any price. IMHO the question is not whether MS should be prepared to lose money, but how much?

    I do think they must come in below the price of an iPhone, but expecting MS to go much lower isn't fair either.

    Either way, chasing market share is not W10M's goal. Even if it was, it would be far more reasonable to do that with low end devices.
    Last edited by a5cent; 10-01-2015 at 05:30 AM. Reason: formatting only
    libra89, HeyCori, IndyJG and 16 others like this.
    09-30-2015 04:40 PM
  11. Pete's Avatar
    One recurring theme lately has been the perceived lack of flagship devices. If Microsoft sells these phones at mid range prices, then it'll turn out to be damaging.

    The result would be a perception that these aren't premium handsets. Also, the less would assume that Microsoft are under pricing through desperation.
    a5cent, HeyCori, libra89 and 10 others like this.
    09-30-2015 04:47 PM
  12. ttsoldier's Avatar
    Wasn't it said that these phones would be priced higher than iPhones?
    Laura Knotek likes this.
    09-30-2015 04:50 PM
  13. a5cent's Avatar
    ^ AFAIK that was in reference to the metal x86 devices rumored to be coming next year. Not these ones.
    xandros9 and neo158 like this.
    09-30-2015 04:53 PM
  14. paulxxwall's Avatar
    Selling at zero profit or less means MS would remove any and all profit potential from the WP hardware market. This would make MS the scourge of the industry and draw the ire of companies who rely on smartphone profits to survive. By killing the profit potential in the WP market, MS would also turn away any OEMs currently thinking of releasing a WP device. I personally don't find engagement by other OEMs important, but many others here do.



    If MS wants other OEMs to engage, they must take the exact opposite approach, by asking well above average prices.



    I actually question whether MS is earning any money on these at all, even at $700. There is no set price at which a phone is guaranteed to make a profit, as it must first recoup the hundreds of millions MS invests in software and hardware engineering. That means the only way to make a profit is by selling high-end devices, with high margins, in large numbers... something high-end Lumias don't typically do.



    Assuming these won't sell in large numbers, it's safe to say these devices are already losing MS money at almost any price. IMHO the question is not whether MS should be prepared to lose money, but how much?



    I do think they must come in below the price of an iPhone, but expecting MS to go much lower isn't fair either.



    Either way, chasing market share is not W10M's goal. Even if it was, it would be far more reasonable to do that with low end devices.
    Ok so ms isn't trying to improve it market shares at all? With market share comes devs, and dev support! So if ms is content with less than 3% how will the app ecosystem improve? Now my question is @ what market share do developers become interested in making apps?
    Penguin apple and melhiore like this.
    09-30-2015 05:17 PM
  15. paulxxwall's Avatar
    And this time around im not sure about forking out 800$ on a platform that's at a "we have to wait and see" situation. Bought the 920 on day one and was under the impression that WP would catch up to even pass IOS at least but not the case at all.iPhones break selling records every year.
    09-30-2015 05:21 PM
  16. EMINENT 1's Avatar
    Selling at zero profit or less means MS would remove any and all profit potential from the WP hardware market. This would make MS the scourge of the industry and draw the ire of companies who rely on smartphone profits to survive. By killing the profit potential in the WP market, MS would also turn away any OEMs currently thinking of releasing a WP device. I personally don't find engagement by other OEMs important, but many others here do.



    If MS wants other OEMs to engage, they must take the exact opposite approach, by asking well above average prices.



    I actually question whether MS is earning any money on these at all, even at $700. There is no set price at which a phone is guaranteed to make a profit, as it must first recoup the hundreds of millions MS invests in software and hardware engineering. That means the only way to make a profit is by selling high-end devices, with high margins, in large numbers... something high-end Lumias don't typically do.



    Assuming these won't sell in large numbers, it's safe to say these devices are already losing MS money at almost any price. IMHO the question is not whether MS should be prepared to lose money, but how much?



    I do think they must come in below the price of an iPhone, but expecting MS to go much lower isn't fair either.



    Either way, chasing market share is not W10M's goal. Even if it was, it would be far more reasonable to do that with low end devices.

    This man gets it.


    If you're worried about market share, buy some of the new phones and other devices. The only way devs will take notice. 100 million on 10 is a good start. So much wasted money and potential on this platform, kinda makes me wish I could write code and bank.
    09-30-2015 07:08 PM
  17. Keith Wallace's Avatar
    It's something that could be of substance, but it didn't work with the 920. It launched at $450, when competing devices were $550. They then discounted it on AT&T by $50 for Black Friday, and even gave away the $50 wireless charging plate. That still didn't give them momentum. Selling at a loss won't mean jack if apps don't come. There are two major results that could hurt here, though:

    1. They sell these at a loss, still can't get marketshare, and just throw up their arms in frustration while pulling out of the market.
    2. They sell these at a loss, GAIN marketshare, and the books look terrible for the mobile division, as sales hurt the bottom line.

    That second one becomes a question of how much MORE they want to lose on mobile devices. They might be fine existing in the 5% marketshare and turning a small profit long-term as an intriguing niche option.
    09-30-2015 07:36 PM
  18. a5cent's Avatar
    Ok so ms isn't trying to improve it market shares at all? With market share comes devs, and dev support! So if ms is content with less than 3% how will the app ecosystem improve? Now my question is @ what market share do developers become interested in making apps?
    W10M is not about fighting another battle for smartphone market share. It's about dealing with the consequences of a lost war.

    Specifically the WP app market is dead, or at least it will be when Astoria and Islandwood are released. Those tools are MS' white flags. MS is no longer looking for WP apps, with WP's elegance or with WP specific features. Instead MS is tying WP's UI paradigms to those prevalent on iOS and Android and implementing a feature set that conforms to what iOS and Android already offer.

    MS envisions a near future where many developers create their iOS and Android apps using Visual Studio, who then also deploy their apps to the WP app store when they are done. The problems of developer support for WP will then hopefully fade, as developers are no longer required to consider WP explicitly, and as the WP store evolves into extensions of the iOS and Android stores over time.

    What is lost by this move? MS control over the app ecosystem on mobile. Fighting for a larger chunk of the smartphone market doesn't make sense under those conditions, because for MS, owning a part of the market share no longer comes with the ability to control it.

    Universal apps will eventually help MS get back into the mobile game (hopefully), but that requires that a decent demand for such Windows apps exists on W10 first. That's where the next battle plays out... not in the mobile smartphone market.

    I'm skipping a lot of important details here, but this is the best I can do for now
    Last edited by a5cent; 10-01-2015 at 10:31 AM. Reason: formatting only
    09-30-2015 07:48 PM
  19. HoosierDaddy's Avatar
    MS doesn't really want to sell phones at all and does it to make sure there are some decent phones regardless of what the phone makers do. So as long as some other companies are building decent Windows Phones at a fair price OR as long as any are thinking about building Windows Phones, the LAST thing MS would want is to take their customers away by selling phones at a loss. Unless they can talk all those companies into selling phones at a loss too. It would probably even be illegal for MS to sell phones at a loss since that is hardly fair competition with those phone makers.
    Penguin apple likes this.
    09-30-2015 07:56 PM
  20. Laura Knotek's Avatar
    W10M is not about fighting another battle for smartphone market share. It's about dealing with the consequences of a lost war.



    Specifically the WP app market is dead, or at least it will be when Astoria and Islandwood are released. Those tools are MS' white flags. MS is no longer looking for WP apps, with WP's elegance or with WP specific features. Instead MS is tying WP's UI paradigms to those prevalent on iOS and Android and implementing a feature set that conforms to what iOS and Android already offer.



    MS envisions a near future where many developers create their iOS and Android apps using Visual Studio, who then also deploy their apps to the WP app store when they are done. The problems of developer support for WP will then hopefully fade, as developers are no longer required to consider WP explicitly, and as the WP store evolves into extensions of the iOS and Android stores over time.



    That is what MS has lost. Control over the app ecosystem on mobile. Fighting for a larger chunk of the smartphone market doesn't make sense under those conditions, because for MS, owning a part of the market share no longer comes with the ability to control it.



    Universal apps will eventually help MS get back into the mobile game (hopefully), but that requires that a decent demand for such Windows apps exists on W10 first. That's where the next battle plays out... not in the mobile smartphone market.

    I'm skipping a lot of important details here, but this is the best I can do for now
    The problem is that failed for BlackBerry. Adding the Android runtime destroyed native BlackBerry app development and failed to improve market share. Now BlackBerry is releasing an Android device.

    If that succeeds, then BlackBerry 10 is dead. If that fails, then BlackBerry will most likely exit the handset market completely.
    libra89, a5cent, tgp and 6 others like this.
    09-30-2015 08:00 PM
  21. slivy58's Avatar
    We can only dream...

    Highly doubt MS will discount below what the market is dictating for a similar spec'd device, I'm going to say here in Canada the 950 will be priced $800+ while the 950XL will be around 900-950+, have a sneaky suspicion though we might not even see the 950XL in the great white north if history continues to repeat itself. Considering the overpriced L830 is still holding strong at $500 here I can't see them only tacking on another $100-$150 for something immensely superior spec wise, my only hope is next week will be revealing enough in that we'll have a better idea where WP/W10M will be heading in the short term.

    "Darling, you gotta let me know Should I stay or should I go?"
    Last edited by Elky64; 09-30-2015 at 08:31 PM. Reason: Formatting
    09-30-2015 08:27 PM
  22. tgp's Avatar
    Highly doubt MS will discount below what the market is dictating for a similar spec'd device,
    With similar specs and similar prices, the difference is down to the OS. As it stands currently, Microsoft is at a disadvantage here. WP/W10M is a little known operating system with a less mature ecosystem.

    All else being equal, what would make an OS agnostic customer choose a Windows Phone over an iPhone or Android? That is the question that Microsoft needs to answer. Even among the smartphone leaders, there is not much "jumping" by customers. There needs to be something compelling for us to switch.
    09-30-2015 09:07 PM
  23. Tien-Lin Chang's Avatar
    Well, first we need a defination of "loss" cos selling profit obviously include following RD works at update, repairing and so on. So if W10M keeps the slow paces and long maintainance period like what they've done in WP8 then I'd say they gonna lose money anyway. Just look how many people still hold their Lumia 920/1020 and wait for the real "flagship" yet still receiving latest update, there's no way the profit from each phone can support three+ years RD without over-price your product. Just take a look at iPhone price-tag but they are running a close ecosystem and they do use some prime and unique hardware and provide a full software package that can charge for some price.

    In the W10M case, we all know that the software is free and the hardware price can be roughly seen from estimated BOM. There's no way the new phone can avoid a head-on price war with android no matter MSFT want it or not. If they keep their WP8 price strategy I'm afraid we'll see the blackberry story again.

    I think the price should be stick on those similar-SPEC android big brands and get maybe 50$ cheaper then stick on two-year or 18 month maintainance to save the invisible spend while keep updating product line to natually wash-out old products (not updating less improve, less attractive products like they done in WP8 era). This can keep a healthy cash flow from loyal costumers and drag someone to try it (like it or not they paid for it anyway). With this competitive price MSFT can also sell plan-free phones instead of being dropped by carriers and I believe this helps the sell globally.
    Laura Knotek likes this.
    09-30-2015 09:25 PM
  24. Jazmac's Avatar
    Selling at a loss benefits no one.
    Not the consumer, not shareholders nor Microsoft. I've said it before, the people who make or break network based devices are those with the keys and the patents for entry to that space. That includes people like Facebook, google, Snapchat, Instagram and a few others with dumb stuff kids that spend all day doing. In short, if those businesses continue to make it impossible for Microsoft to exist in that space, it simply will not exist in that space. Period.

    Microsoft has to do what Netflix has done and that is to flip the script. Netflix innovated around companies like Blockbuster and its brick and mortar stores because it saw that people could wait a day to get a video in the mail and its model eliminated those dang late fees.

    Its now doing to Cox, Comcast, Directv and Dish what it did to Blockbuster and people are cutting cords by the thousands. Granted, Netflix isn't doing it alone but they have helped spawn tons of other internet based streaming services, including Amazon Prime.

    I trust Microsoft is up to something huge with Windows 10 and whatever it is will require all parts of that company to pull its own weight. From Azure to operating systems to Office to Phones and everything in between and it has the infrastructure to do it.. I don't see that happening by selling at a loss.
    10-01-2015 01:48 AM
  25. Guytronic's Avatar
    Been thinking about initial retail.

    Perhaps a price in the premium range would drive interest.
    If interested consumers on the edge were sparked by a proposed cost comparable to other premium devices maybe people looking for different would turn their heads.

    To some it's all about the OS.
    To others it's all about the hardware.

    Hard to say what may drive number three to the top.
    I honestly believe "established" doesn't mean eternal.
    Penguin apple likes this.
    10-01-2015 02:21 AM
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