Is windows mobile really dying?

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hasasimo

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Already posted my two cents in this thread, but following the discussion I think too much blame is being put on the quality of the product. I thought Windows Phone 8 was awesome, and am just getting my feet wet with Windows 10 Mobile (I also have an S7 Edge).

By far and away Microsoft's biggest problem is marketing and pop culture infiltration. Apple has gotten away with what is, in my opinion, a vastly inferior product thanks to its ability to convince the masses and saturate their consumption. Hell, it hasn't innovated in at least 9 years, at least on the mobile front. But they haven't had to, because they have your average Joe convinced that they're the best option out there, and that they're innovators.
 
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With each passing day, posts here are closely mirroring those at Crackberry. With posts like BlackBerry to bounce back! or the eerily familiar sounding Afraid of BlackBerry 10's future thread.
The difference is that Blackberry didn't have the business that Microsoft does to weather the tough times. nor did it have the world's most popular desktop OS to help drive development and interest in the platform. While it's not ideal for them, Microsoft can afford for their mobile devices to do poorly for some time without having to jump ship. Once they turn their attention to Mobile again next year, they can afford for any growth they achieve to be slow. They can even afford to keep doing Windows 10 Mobile even if there is no growth. Blackberry didn't have that luxury.
 

cracgor

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The difference is that Blackberry didn't have the business that Microsoft does to weather the tough times. nor did it have the world's most popular desktop OS to help drive development and interest in the platform. While it's not ideal for them, Microsoft can afford for their mobile devices to do poorly for some time without having to jump ship. Once they turn their attention to Mobile again next year, they can afford for any growth they achieve to be slow. They can even afford to keep doing Windows 10 Mobile even if there is no growth. Blackberry didn't have that luxury.

I still think it is fishy that the official end of life for Windows Mobile 10 is 1/9/2018 while Windows 10 is 10/13/2020. I don't how much luxury of time they are giving to the Mobile OS.

In case you want to say:
1) Windows Mobile 10 may become something else around then and an update will be possible to the new thing.
No guarantees on Windows Mobile updating to the next iteration.​
2) People will be ready to get a new phone then anyway.
Assuming the Surface Phone or whatever is released in April 2017 and you buy it on day 1, you will get 8 months before that end of life is reached.​
3) That date is more like a floating number that will adjust over time.
From the website: Microsoft Support Lifecycle policy provides consistent and predictable guidelines for product support availability when a product releases and throughout that product’s life. By understanding the product support available, customers are better able to maximize the management of their IT investments and strategically plan for a successful IT future.​

I can't understand what Microsoft's plans are for Mobile. I really hope that they don't think making Windows Mobile into a Pocket PC (TM) is going to work without putting Chip's Challenge and Jezz Ball on it.

Source: https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/lifecycle/search?sort=PN&alpha=Windows%2010%20Mobile&Filter=FilterNO
 

DancingDave

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IDC has just released the recent market share numbers for Q1/2016. Microsoft is now with 0.6% in the "other" category:

http://www.drwindows.de/content/attachments/145397d1461824125-idc-q1-2016.jpg.html

What's most interesting: The small Chinese Android makers are the only ones that are gaining really fast market share. Vivo and Oppo have 130+% YOY.

And what's more frightening: There is hardly any more growth in the smartphone market. Now everyone has decided which system they use - so for Microsoft it'll be even harder (especially when you consider that over 70% of Windows Mobile users said they want to buy an Android oder iPhone as their next device).
 

kaktus1389

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I still think it is fishy that the official end of life for Windows Mobile 10 is 1/9/2018 while Windows 10 is 10/13/2020. I don't how much luxury of time they are giving to the Mobile OS.

In case you want to say:
1) Windows Mobile 10 may become something else around then and an update will be possible to the new thing.
No guarantees on Windows Mobile updating to the next iteration.​
2) People will be ready to get a new phone then anyway.
Assuming the Surface Phone or whatever is released in April 2017 and you buy it on day 1, you will get 8 months before that end of life is reached.​
3) That date is more like a floating number that will adjust over time.
From the website: Microsoft Support Lifecycle policy provides consistent and predictable guidelines for product support availability when a product releases and throughout that product’s life. By understanding the product support available, customers are better able to maximize the management of their IT investments and strategically plan for a successful IT future.​

I can't understand what Microsoft's plans are for Mobile. I really hope that they don't think making Windows Mobile into a Pocket PC (TM) is going to work without putting Chip's Challenge and Jezz Ball on it.

Source: https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/lifecycle/search?sort=PN&alpha=Windows%2010%20Mobile&Filter=FilterNO

Do you realize that there will probably be updates for the OS when they develop new version of Windows or when they merge it in one platform?

I mean, there was an update for PCs from Windows 7, 8 and 8.1 to Windows 10, for free and there also is Windows 10 Mobile update for devices with more than 1 GB of RAM and screen resolution higher than 800*480, so why wouldn't there be an update available for Surface phone and other phones then too? Right, it might be another version of Windows, but it will for sure be based on Windows 10 Mobile. Don't see your point unfortunately.
 

Stef8600

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Innovation is around the corner. I think MS has the advantage that Apple and Google have not.
Apple and Goolge are prisoners of their success, meaning that they have little space to manouvre if they want to innovate.
MS was not in that position, they had a small userbase (although they surpassed the iPhone in different European markets), but they can easily change tactics. They have set big hopes on UWP and Continuum. This asked for a re-designed OS and opens the path to innovation and bring new sorts of devices. Innovation / something different, can attract users. Firstly it will be carried by the business users, afterwards, more consumer-based devices/hw features could be launched.
Will this work, we will see next year when MS announces their new thing (whatever it may be called).
 

sd4f

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And what's more frightening: There is hardly any more growth in the smartphone market. Now everyone has decided which system they use - so for Microsoft it'll be even harder (especially when you consider that over 70% of Windows Mobile users said they want to buy an Android oder iPhone as their next device).

I often wondered about this, as it's not mentioned much in the media. I didn't take the move from android the WP lightly, because I'd already bought some apps, and I really don't like fragmentation. But because my foray in android was so bad, the decision to change was a real step up. I already had a MS account for email, so it wasn't a big deal at all.

So, this is the one thing that I kind of wonder about, targeting teenagers, as if they get started on one platform, I get the feeling they'll tend to stick with it. This is also where apps like the flavour of the month social media is probably quite important.

Bottom line is, my perception is that if MS leave the mobile platform mostly mothballed this year (i.e. not focused on it), I doubt it could possibly recover. If many users abandon the platform this year, they won't get them back for at least a few years. I really want to hold out, but if my phone dies on me, then I'm back to android.
 

N_LaRUE

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Innovation is around the corner. I think MS has the advantage that Apple and Google have not.
Apple and Goolge are prisoners of their success, meaning that they have little space to manouvre if they want to innovate.
MS was not in that position, they had a small userbase (although they surpassed the iPhone in different European markets), but they can easily change tactics. They have set big hopes on UWP and Continuum. This asked for a re-designed OS and opens the path to innovation and bring new sorts of devices. Innovation / something different, can attract users. Firstly it will be carried by the business users, afterwards, more consumer-based devices/hw features could be launched.
Will this work, we will see next year when MS announces their new thing (whatever it may be called).

I think you have a very narrow view of innovation and what people expect and what business want.

First, though, who 'asked for' the redesign of the OS? No one I have encountered...

Now personally I don't care about what Apple does but they have been successful. Their marketing is spot on and their mind share with their fans is very tight. Not saying they're perfect, I know they've struggled this last quarter and there are some annoyances with the way Apple does things but don't count them out.

Google is a different company altogether. With their new model with the way the company is structured they now have the ability to do a 'startup' mentality with all their different ideas. They have pushed their way into schools with Chromebooks. Regardless how you feel about them but they indicate a future that many have been predicting for some time. Web apps and what that means about having the apps you want anywhere.

Microsoft built its reputation on business first. They set out to dominate the business world and worked with PC OEMs to provide a cost effective solution for a connected workplace. Their biggest thing was always about under cutting Apple and others to be the best value for corporations and companies. Being a software company they eventually brought out Office software and the rest they say is history. This is why you find MS products typically in the majority of companies.

Not everything any of these companies have done has been perfect. MS failed in many things, so have the others. No company is bulletproof and consumer feelings is a difficult thing to keep track of.

Speaking from a person who's worked in several large corporations, MS products in the office tend to be years behind what is currently available on the market. At work I'm on Windows 7 (just recently upgraded) and Office is 2007. Innovation is all well and good but it's a lot easier to get consumers to buy it over companies. Companies prefer little risk, especially where it can cost money in IT services. There are some companies who don't mind having the latest and greatest but they won't be large corporations or even mid sized companies. This I can assure you.

I'm not saying that MS doesn't have something going for them but I don't see a shift coming any time soon for the majority of companies. Few are taking up W10 or W10M regardless how 'neat' it is or what it has to offer. Change in IT is costly and it takes a while for companies to test things and determine if it's going to work for them.

These companies can innovate all they want but that doesn't necessarily mean everyone is going to grab it and run with it. That's too risky for most.
 
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cracgor

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Do you realize that there will probably be updates for the OS when they develop new version of Windows or when they merge it in one platform?

I mean, there was an update for PCs from Windows 7, 8 and 8.1 to Windows 10, for free and there also is Windows 10 Mobile update for devices with more than 1 GB of RAM and screen resolution higher than 800*480, so why wouldn't there be an update available for Surface phone and other phones then too? Right, it might be another version of Windows, but it will for sure be based on Windows 10 Mobile. Don't see your point unfortunately.

The update path is not clear. You can assume that things will be updated, but you never know. Suppose that they abandon SnapDragon processors for x86/64 processors with Windows 11. They abandoned WP7 devices because of kernel rewrite. Many WP8 devices are incompatible with W10M. The update from Windows 7 to Windows 8 cost money. As described in my post, there is no guarantee that any phone will be updated to the next iteration of Windows Mobile.
 

Stef8600

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MS keeps changing how one develops apps for WP/WM. If I were a serious mobile app developer, I'd be fed up with it by now, especially if the market share is close to nothing. Who's going to guarantee they won't reboot again.

1) WP8 apps run without a problem on W10M (only a few do not run 100% problem free).
2) if a developer wants his app to be a UWP app, then he can do so very, very easily with Visual Studion 2015.
 

Stef8600

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Continuum is not simply a gimmick. Most people will rarely use it, until all Windows PCs accept phone connections, and even then I don't expect it to be a killer feature. The reason Continuum is important in Windows Mobile is to support the idea of UWP apps. When the same app code adapts from a 5 inch screen with touch to a 20 inch screen with mouse and the same app runs on a PC, then that's significant because all the new generation Windows apps will be UWP and therefore run in Windows Mobile, Xbox and HoloLens, making the Windows ecosystem the most complete, versatile, cohesive and integrated. Microsoft needs to focus 120% into making UWP apps easy to create and get profits from, and this will make any Windows 10 device the most powerful tool to have.

Creating UWP apps isn't difficult at all. With 1 line of code you can detect on wich device family the app runs and detect the screensize with another line of code. Depended on those results, you can set the position/sizes of the controls on the screen eg horizontally or vertically. Of course this is done dynamically, so you do not have to redraw the screens yourself. After that is done and your project compiles, release it to the store and your app runs on xbox, Hololens, Mobile, PC.
As an extra bonus, you can use the free Xamarin add-in to create an Android screen - unless you created your UWP app with Xamarin forms already - and create an android package that can be released to the google play store.
Done, your app enjoys the best of both worlds.
 

Stef8600

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All the essential apps? "Essential" is a very subjective word. For example several large banks do not have mobile banking apps in the Windows Store yet and whenever you ask them about it their response is "Well, umm, yeah... its not something we are looking to do anytime soon..."

It is because the wrong question is asked. The question should be, "do you plan an app for Windows 10?"
 

DancingDave

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So, this is the one thing that I kind of wonder about, targeting teenagers, as if they get started on one platform, I get the feeling they'll tend to stick with it. This is also where apps like the flavour of the month social media is probably quite important.

There was an interesting number released just recently by PJC: 70%(!) of teenagers in the US own an iPhone and about 65% own an iPad. And Gartner just released a number for new smartphone owners in developing countries: The majority of those new smartphone owners never owned a PC before. Their smartphone or tablet it the only device they are using.
 

Lenn Liggins

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Apple and Samsung don't act like this. Microsoft is so mess up it's like we don't care if you buy them or not. We will not advertise any of our phones. I've left Windows phones and will not return.
 

anon(5346951)

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My opinion is that in the market there has been so little innovation and shift in paradigm for nearly ten years that it is ripe for disruption.

I believe Microsoft is in the right place with UWP but it is certainly still all to play for.
 

jason10mm

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There was an interesting number released just recently by PJC: 70%(!) of teenagers in the US own an iPhone and about 65% own an iPad. And Gartner just released a number for new smartphone owners in developing countries: The majority of those new smartphone owners never owned a PC before. Their smartphone or tablet it the only device they are using.

That is a sobering statistic if true. While I don't quite agree that teenagers will stick to something dogmatically (I suspect they are the group most influenced by a short term marketing blitz) it does paint a future where folks think Apple/MAC for computing instead of PC. I wonder if MS is going to give up on consumer products completely and hope that enterprise and possibly iOS/Android ports of Office and what not will carry them through. Fighting for space in the mobile computing market may be too taxing and I'm not sure they can convince either Apple or Google to play along with them. A MS/Amazon partnership is most likely IMHO. While I think that a WM phone with the ability to run android apps would be killer, I'm not sure they can make it happen. Universal windows apps are great in concept, but there are just not that many apps necessary for a PC, so without an already strong phone market the appeal for devs just isn't there.
 

Reaper5401

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I do not believe it is dying, but rather Microsoft is probably refocusing Win10 Mobile to the business user. I have had a Windows phone since the Verizon 822 was released (followed by the 928 and the Icon). I really liked the simplicity and ease of use of the Windows phone. Sadly my ICON was dying a slow death (Battery life was declining). I liked my Verizon service, so I had to opt for the S7 Edge, The android world is a little jarring for me and it will probably take a few weeks for me to get acclimated.
I understand that Microsoft may release some phones in Spring of 2017 but again, I think it is more for business use than consumer use which is probably a better path for Microsoft if they want to stay relevant in the phone business.
 
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