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09-17-2016 05:21 PM
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  1. Yazen's Avatar
    I've seen what you've seen. I could replace my TV with a video window pinned to the wall (I'd paint the wall black to get the best colour from the screen). It has 3D audio capabilities, so playing music is a given. It can do Skype, so video, voice and text messaging is there. It runs Win10 so I imagine all the apps I use now will be available in some form or another. I'd be keen to see how it handles Kindle.
    Nice! I might start with something along those lines. Probably start with hanging poster frames because my walls are textured, poster screens look classier than projector screens haha
    04-21-2015 05:22 PM
  2. Motor_Mouth's Avatar
    Exactly, and who has been the targeted audience for the Hololens? Essentially the entire consuming population, or more relatable, the same consumers targeted by the latest Galaxy or IPhone, or any flagship for that matter, the audience targeted for any new gaming console, basically the same audience targeted for any mainstream tech device, hence no way MSFT spends this much time perfecting and promoting to vastest amount of consumers a device that showcases upcoming windows 10 in unprecedented manner and they sell it for a price which is anything but mainstream price range. They are likely to sell at break even or even at a loss as reaching they hands of the greatest amount of consumer's will far outweigh any upfront profits over the long run.
    You'd say the same thing about Band though, wouldn't you, but I still can't buy one in Australia 6 months after it was released in the US. You'd have said the same thing about Zune music players, too, yet they were never sold anywhere outside Nth America. Just because they eventually want to dominate the world doesn't mean they start out with saturation bombing. "Softly, softly, catchy monkey" and a good way to do that is to make the first gen a little more expensive so that it gets into the hands of the real enthusiasts who will drive sales later on.

    I'll be incredibly disappointed if they restrict sales to the US, although I'll still get one from over there, even if I have to fly across and grab it in person.
    Last edited by Motor_Mouth; 04-24-2015 at 12:51 AM.
    04-24-2015 12:38 AM
  3. Motor_Mouth's Avatar
    ... leveraging their extremely high levels of high profit margin cash flow to deliver to the consumer great deals on their latest hardware ventures.
    If that's true, why is Surface so expensive? And Zune players weren't exactly cheap, either.
    This is in my opinion a brilliant method of gaining rapid traction in late to the game arenas.
    What does this have to do with HoloLens, which will be the first device in a whole new category. It won't have any competition and it's market share will be 100%, no matter how many they sell, until someone else can come up with another device to compete with it. That will probably give them a year or two to improve and perfect HoloLens before they have to worry about competitors. That's plenty of time to grow your sales, no need to do it all at once.
    I cannot fathom that a company would spend years perfecting a revolutionary device along with months if not years more promoting and showcasing while continuing to perfect such a device only to release it at such a price point in which the prospects of massive consumer purchasing and subsequent loss of a major draw for the consumer embracing of their latest OS...
    This doesn't make sense with the fact that Microsoft are giving W10 away. Why would they lose money on a new hardware venture, one that has no competitors whatsoever, just to help them give away more licenses of the thing you say makes all their money? Your logic contradicts itself all over the place. I think your point would make much more sense applied to the new Surface 3, yet they have not seen fit to sell it on the cheap at all. Quite the opposite, it's priced in iPad territory.
    the most powerful source of strength in gaining consumer engagement with windows 10.
    Again, I'd say that applies more to Surface 3 than to HoloLens, as S3 will provide a more "normal" windows experience.

    The only thing that might stop them from pricing it high is the appearance of failure that would inevitably come if they lowered the price later on. That said, if they came out with a second-gen device at a lower price, they could simply say that they were able to do it more cheaply because of economies of scale or whatever. I still believe a sub-$1000 price is unlikely but I'd be very happy to be proved wrong.
    04-24-2015 12:56 AM
  4. Yazen's Avatar
    Don't worry, it will be released sub $600 and you will just have buy two to compensate haha

    If they want HoloLens in every home, they are going to need to put one in every home, literally.

    If this fails they'll probably write up a skeleton for other vendors to license.
    04-24-2015 11:28 PM
  5. Motor_Mouth's Avatar
    They will only have to do that if they want a HoloLens in every home this year, which seems unlikely. If nothing else, they will not want to manufacture too many and be forced into another billion dollar write-down if it tanks. It's unknown territory for everyone and I think a softly, softly approach is what they'll employ.

    Don't get me wrong, no-one would be happier than me if they decide to sell them on the cheap but I can't see any upside for them in doing that. As I said, they will have 100% market share whether they sell a hundred or a million so they can afford to let momentum build over time. And Apple have shown time and time again that premium pricing is no barrier to tens of millions of sales so I can't see Microsoft dropping their pants unless/until they really have to. They exist to make money, not to make our dreams come true (although the latter is a good way to achieve the former in some circumstances).
    04-25-2015 06:55 PM
  6. calfee20's Avatar
    05-01-2015 04:00 PM
  7. Kieran Jeffery's Avatar
    It all depends on how much that new HPU costs to build? Is it just a modified CPU/APU/GPU or is it something much more complex needing to process 10x that of any current chip.
    05-01-2015 04:53 PM
  8. onysi's Avatar
    My guess is just around 700. It shouldn't be more than a surface. This thing is smokes and mirrors. The technology is windows 10, typical PC parts on two small screens for your eyes. I say its smokes and mirrors because its Kinect in your face. Hand gestures are here to stay. Its apps and developer support that will power this. Without developers and consumers, this will be another Zune. So glad microsoft got this out before apple did.
    DanielJoseph7 likes this.
    05-01-2015 05:04 PM
  9. Motor_Mouth's Avatar
    Why shouldn't it be more than a Surface? It has all the same components as a Surface, plus a custom-built HPU and half-a-dozen extra cameras and sensors. For that reason, and because there is nothing else competing against it, I think it is likely to be at least twice the price of a Surface 3.
    05-02-2015 07:48 AM
  10. DanielJoseph7's Avatar
    Why shouldn't it be more than a Surface? It has all the same components as a Surface, plus a custom-built HPU and half-a-dozen extra cameras and sensors. For that reason, and because there is nothing else competing against it, I think it is likely to be at least twice the price of a Surface 3.
    Well you have to think of it as a business standpoint. Entering an entirely new market, that you want to have a large market share of, you have to make it appealing to the average consumer and that includes price point(because everything about HoloLens is appealing). Anyways, the dev kit comes out next month so we'll find out then
    05-03-2015 03:07 PM
  11. Motor_Mouth's Avatar
    If you are the only entrant in the market, then your share will be 100% whether you sell ten or ten million devices. So until Microsoft has competition in that market, from Magic Leap or whoever, they can price it however they like and still be assured of 100% market share. It would be a pretty stupid businessman who would lose money for that 100% market share when he could put a hefty premium on it and still have a 100% share. To put it another way, it is better to make some money from a few sales than no money at all from lots of sales.

    You can also look at how prices fall over time in the console market. When PS3 launched in Australia, it was Au$999 but over time Sony steadily lowered it, until it was just Au$299 by the time PS4 was released. I think Microsoft will adopt a similar strategy here - initially it will be priced high but if/when some competition arrives, or perhaps when they are 100% confident that the platform is perfect, or maybe when production ramps up and economies of scale kick in, they will drop the price to increase sales. Whatever, I am certain that if you want a HoloLens on Day 1, you are going to have to be prepared to pay a lot for it. My expectation is somewhere between US$1000 and US$1500 but I am prepared to pay twice that if I have to.
    05-03-2015 07:28 PM
  12. DanielJoseph7's Avatar
    If you are the only entrant in the market, then your share will be 100% whether you sell ten or ten million devices. So until Microsoft has competition in that market, from Magic Leap or whoever, they can price it however they like and still be assured of 100% market share. It would be a pretty stupid businessman who would lose money for that 100% market share when he could put a hefty premium on it and still have a 100% share. To put it another way, it is better to make some money from a few sales than no money at all from lots of sales.

    You can also look at how prices fall over time in the console market. When PS3 launched in Australia, it was Au$999 but over time Sony steadily lowered it, until it was just Au$299 by the time PS4 was released. I think Microsoft will adopt a similar strategy here - initially it will be priced high but if/when some competition arrives, or perhaps when they are 100% confident that the platform is perfect, or maybe when production ramps up and economies of scale kick in, they will drop the price to increase sales. Whatever, I am certain that if you want a HoloLens on Day 1, you are going to have to be prepared to pay a lot for it. My expectation is somewhere between US$1000 and US$1500 but I am prepared to pay twice that if I have to.
    Ya, but think about how much they want this to get out there and be known. So I am prepared to pay over 1000$, but it's not crazy to think that it will be around 800$.
    05-04-2015 12:23 AM
  13. Motor_Mouth's Avatar
    $800 is certainly possible but most here seem to want it to be $500 or less and that simply isn't going to happen. But the one thing Microsoft won't want to do is get millions of them out there, only to discover there is some serious problem with it that didn't show up in their closed testing of the device and system. Apple can get away with doing that (antenna-gate, bend-gate, recent new versions of iOS) but Microsoft would be crucified in the press for something far less serious, completely killing any hope HoloLens has of being successful. Unlike Windows 10, they can't get lots of people to beta-test it without far too many details leaking ahead of the official launch.

    The best way to get the ball rolling is to start with a bunch of keen early adopters who are willing to pay whatever it costs, who will help find and kill any little problems, then get it out to the wider market. And in recent times we have seen Microsoft's reluctance to go into full production with a new product (after the massive write-down with the original Surface) so I really can't see them going in too hard here.
    DanielJoseph7 likes this.
    05-04-2015 12:38 AM
  14. chuckdaly's Avatar
    The lowest price I predict is $999. Its a computer with built-in head tracking and display. Why would anyone think this is less expensive to build than a macbook is beyond me. If I were an interior designer or architect, I would pay $4000 to buy one for my business.
    05-04-2015 07:26 AM
  15. DanielJoseph7's Avatar
    The lowest price I predict is $999. Its a computer with built-in head tracking and display. Why would anyone think this is less expensive to build than a macbook is beyond me. If I were an interior designer or architect, I would pay $4000 to buy one for my business.
    Well one of the components is a Kinect sensor I believe, and it costs Microsoft 79$ to make a Kinect 2.0 as a whole. So with all the other parts and such, I would guess it would cost them just under 500$ to make? So I'm thinking $800-$1500, but we'll find out soon.
    05-04-2015 09:34 AM
  16. Motor_Mouth's Avatar
    It is incredibly nave to think that the price of anything you buy is a reflection of the cost of manufacturing it. e.g. Do you really think it costs $100 to put an extra 32Gb of storage into a phone or tablet? Of course it doesn't, it probably costs $2, but it is a good excuse to charge the customer an extra $100 so that's what they do. Every company will set the absolute highest price they think they can get away with.

    With HoloLens, there is no existing market so they don't have to worry too much about what everyone else is charging. So the only real consideration for them is going to be how many they want to sell. You seem to think they want to sell 100million in the first week but I can't see that, for two reasons I've already explained - they'll want to validate the platform and they won't want to manufacture too many in case it tanks. They'll also look at the iPhone and see that Apple only sold around 3 million of the first gen model, over a period of more than a year, but 8 years later they sold 40 million in just one quarter. That will give them confidence that if they start slowly and get everything absolutely right, success will come in time.

    The other lesson they will look to is the $800million Surface RT write-down they incurred when they over-estimated demand. As we've seen since that incident, Microsoft are happy to allow demand to outstrip supply - we've seen stock outages of Surface on a regular basis and also for Band. But they will want to tread a fine line with HoloLens - they won't want too many inpatient customers but they still won't want to manufacture too many devices. The best way to make this work is to price it high enough that you can meet demand without the risk of overstocking your warehouses.

    Of course, Microsoft have also used staggered global availability to restrict supply - you still can't buy Band in Australia, even though Sydney is getting the first Microsoft Store built outside the US. Obviously I'm hopeful it will get a global release but if they do restrict it to the US, that could work in favour of a lower price, although even then I'd expect it to be much closer to $1000 than $500.

    Lastly, I'd point out that Kinect only has three sensors, HoloLens has seven, meaning you can comfortably double the cost of Kinect and add a bit more when looking at the cost of making HoloLens. It also has all the components of a Surface 3 plus a custom HPU and where the S3 uses mass-produced screens, HoloLens uses brand new technology to project it's holograms. Brand new technology does not come cheap, so you can expect the HPU and projection hardware to cost more than the rest of it put together. So if you take the cost of a Surface 3, say $250 (very conservative), add two Kinects and then double it, I'd say that is likely the absolutely minimum cost of manufacture. What does that total, then? $820. Add in wholesale and retail margins and $1200 starts to seem like the cheapest they can sell it without losing money.
    05-04-2015 09:17 PM
  17. Spencer Carriveau's Avatar
    The lowest price I predict is $999. Its a computer with built-in head tracking and display. Why would anyone think this is less expensive to build than a macbook is beyond me. If I were an interior designer or architect, I would pay $4000 to buy one for my business.
    Macbooks are cheap to build, however you end up paying like 300% the actual cost just for the little apple logo on the device.
    05-04-2015 09:31 PM
  18. DanielJoseph7's Avatar
    Well motor_mouth, I don't really think that they want to sell millions in the first week, as much as I think they want to have an appealing price. And I agree with that last part, because manufacturing costs do relate to the sale price. As in the more it costs to make, the higher the sale price, generally. And $1200 is nothing crazy for the HoloLens, that's still cheap, so I'd take that! As long as it's under $2000 I'll get it straight away.
    05-05-2015 12:30 AM
  19. chuckdaly's Avatar
    I agree that macbooks are relatively cheap to manufacture. Yet, good luck finding a Macbook review, where the reviewer even implies that it could be overpriced. My guess is the hololens will cost more to produce, but be priced similar ($1500-2000 MSRP). If it works as its advertised, it will be worth every penny.
    05-06-2015 08:43 AM
  20. Motor_Mouth's Avatar
    Here is an interesting estimate from PC World - "Press-room guesses on its price all start at four figures, with Gartner analyst Martin Reynolds believing that they’ll be priced at $2,000 initially. (Eventually, I believe, it will be about the price of an Xbox One, or $300 or so, but that’s a couple of years away.) " That's kind of in the same ball park I am expecting.
    05-08-2015 07:07 PM
  21. Elwood Jones's Avatar
    I think between $600 and $800. About the same as a high end phone. Price it too high and it will be a flop because you price the average young person and a lot of us ol' dudes out of the market. I won't buy an $800 phone so why would I spend that kinda money on a gaming device?
    05-09-2015 09:02 PM
  22. DanielJoseph7's Avatar
    I think between $600 and $800. About the same as a high end phone. Price it too high and it will be a flop because you price the average young person and a lot of us ol' dudes out of the market. I won't buy an $800 phone so why would I spend that kinda money on a gaming device?
    This is not a gaming device. It's multi-purpose. But I see where you're going.
    05-09-2015 09:37 PM
  23. Motor_Mouth's Avatar
    I think between $600 and $800. About the same as a high end phone. Price it too high and it will be a flop because you price the average young person and a lot of us ol' dudes out of the market. I won't buy an $800 phone so why would I spend that kinda money on a gaming device?
    Again, you are assuming Microsoft want to get it into everybody's hands from the get-go but history tells us that is NOT what they will do. That said, there seems to be no shortage of morons willing to hand over more than a grand for an iPhone 6+ so I can't see high price necessarily being too much of a barrier for those who really want to get in on this.

    I wouldn't pay $800 for a phone but this is a very different situation. Firstly, I don't have to spend $800 to get a phone that works for me, whereas if I want a Holographic Windows 10 computer, HoloLens will be the only game in town. I'll have to pay whatever they ask or miss out. Secondly, it is a fully fledged Windows 10 PC and I paid way more than $800 for all but one of my Windows PCs (8" tablet). Finally, look at the X-Box market - they only sell about 4million per quarter, compared to around 10million Lumia phones. Yet everyone considers X-Box to be a very solid business and Lumia phones to be a waste of Microsoft's time. This shows that it's all relative and you can make a solid business without having to get one into every home.

    HoloLens doesn't have to be the next big thing to be successful, it just has to find a niche and own a good chunk of it, like X-Box does. It also has significant value to Microsoft as the flag-bearer for Windows 10, showing, in the best possible way, just how far ahead of the competition W10 is.
    05-10-2015 09:08 PM
  24. grahamf's Avatar
    I'm thinking a minimum of $800, but to be honest I don't know what to expect. To me this is still bordering on science fiction.
    05-10-2015 10:33 PM
  25. Daniel Ratcliffe's Avatar
    I think for something like this we're looking at a six figure digit price. It will not be cheap. Windows Phone doesn't hold up as an example as despite them making their phones really affordable they're still getting annihilated. I don't think price is the problem here, I think it's the perception of Microsoft. That being said, I know whatever they release it at, I won't be able to afford it. So will have to wait for v2-3.
    05-11-2015 06:33 AM
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