Prediction sure to go wrong: Where I see WP headed in this brave new world...

[snowmutt]

This has come up in bits and pieces in other threads like "What if MS stops selling high end hardware?" or "What is Nokia becomes the only WP manufacturer?", so I thought I would take what we know from history, add what we have heard in rumors, add a little what may be to come, and half-bake it at 430 degrees and see what it looks like to everyone else.

I am not shy in saying this: 2014 has been a crap year for our favorite OS. A huge drop in sales and sales were small to start with. Nokia in complete flux. There are still people who say the release and support of Microsoft services to iOS and Android are better and show a lack of support for WP and doubt the dedication to WP. Throw in some ugliness between Samsung and MS, Huawei dropping WP (oh, sorry- they have put WP devices "on hold". My bad.). Very little rumors of top end devices coming this winter.

Let us face it.... this has been a bad year and as far as mobile goes, it cannot get over fast enough.

However, I will say that we need to look at what WP offers MS. Then we can throw some ideas as to what the future holds.

Yes, Mobile versions of MS products certainly seem better on the Android and iOS offerings. But, I submit this is a good thing. Why? As Windows 9 comes out this year and WP9 comes out next year, the play time will be over. There can be no more "not good enough, still developing" or "just wait until NEXT update" versions of Windows or WP. What is more, Mr. Nadella has shown one thing since becoming CEO: He is not accepting excuses. WP dropping sales percentage may be a blessing in disguise: When these versions come out, the Skype, Office, Maps, and all other integrations as well as tools will be ready for primetime. WP cannot live without being on par with Android and iOS.

Yes, there has been sluggish phone development this year, but with no licensing charge, there is very little reason for OEMs to not give WP another shot. With Nokia handset development now under MS, there seems to be a group back to the "only Nokia will make handsets" due to bad sales. I feel we have less to worry about in that then we think due to MS ace in the hole: Patent agreements coming to MS from OEMs using Android. MS can offer cut rate style agreements in exchange for developing WP devices. I have always thought that these patent agreements have paid for the development of WP anyways.

So, how do I see the next 18-24 months shaking out? I see this breaking down this way:

-Nokia devices become mid-range to low-range offerings. What has been the most successful WP lines? The cheaper, entry level and mid-range devices. I am sorry- neither iOS or Android can compete with the smoothness of WP on these devices. They can match build quality and hardware, but over the life of these devices, WP just runs better and eat less battery. MS will need to show a profit on this purchase, and these devices are the way to do that.

-The sales of these devices will hopefully push WP to a decent percentage again, and developers will still be encouraged to build apps and support the apps on the Store. There isn't a chance WP catches up to Android and iOS, but it doesn't need to. Half a million- 750,000 apps is the number that Android had when it took off and passed iOS even though Apple had more in their store. WP needs that number of GOOD APPS to be able to kill this argument once and for all.

-MS will show that the HTC ONE (M8) for Windows is the way to go for high end devices. OEMs already have these high end devices being pumped out for Android. By removing the fees and hardware restrictions, releasing these devices as the high end WP's offer a small investment with a nice opportunity for a good return. If MS can help with promotion, then OEMs will have a back up for Android that just doesn't exist for them right now.

I still see WP breaking that mythical 10% sales barrier by 2016-2017. That will be more then enough sales to keep WP growth strong and make it profitable. It will give MS it's own OS to build a loyal following to it's services and cloud tools. It will give OEMs and carriers an out from Android and iOS owning the market.

I hope I am right. I have already seen the death of one OS I loved- WebOS- I do not want to see the death of another. As I truly feel BlackBerry may no longer in a position to truly challenge, WP is the only OS on the market right now in a position to offer an option.

WP will not recover from another 2014. So, MS will not allow it to have one.

My humble opinion.

 

[Muessig]

Agreed. I'm positive that with the licensing changes and new hardware partners the end of 2014 and going into 2015 will mean more varied hardware and more devices at lots of price pints can only be a good thing. I personally want to see more interest from the likes of bigger companies like Sony, LG etc to bring over reputable high end devices but that may take time.

We're seeing a more focused development in the OS and hopefully that will spread up more.

The worst thing that we're seeing is the exclusivity or slow burning releases of sought after hardware globally which is kind of shooting itself in the foot. We need to see any new hardware releases - especially high end hardware - getting much wider releases on multiple carriers of these devices are going to get any reaction from a mass audience.

My two cents anyway.

 

[twint7787]

First off I feel you on the loss of webOS. It hurts my soul.
Ok now that I got that out of the way. I was reading the article on Huawei and immediately thought about making an antithesis to your thread. I have bad feelings for WP. Very bad. Your post is what you hope will happen and I hope for good things as well, but I think back to when I was hoping for webOS.
I just think MS has such a bad rep and even worse marketing/PR that it is going to be difficult for them going forward in the consumer space. They flat out missed the boat on mobile and they are still playing catch-up.
I do agree that a lot of manufacturers will see WP as a viable alternative to android, but the problem there is that even if MS reduces any cost for them, they still need to actually sell. Now, this year could just be an outlier as WP was growing in the previous year. However, MS needs to hit every single point you just made and more to gain any market share. The BIGGEST issue which is out of there hands really is app development. Devs need to actually make apps for the platform. I know that everyone is hoping universal apps will be WP's saving grace, but I have this bad gut feeling that it will not help as much as they need it to. Here's to hoping I am very wrong. Also, sorry for being more pessimistic but that is just my fears to your hopes. :wink:

 

[Jas00555]

This came into my head about 1/4 of the way down the OP

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nv2ONRJ9tMQ

*cries tears of joy*

That was a beautiful post snowmutt

 

[snowmutt]

This came into my head about 1/4 of the way down the OP

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nv2ONRJ9tMQ

*cries tears of joy*

That was a beautiful post snowmutt

*cries while laughing*

I feel as though I should invade Google HQ now and start shooting ......

 

[prasath1234]

I don't understand why you guys always target Google.

Sent from my C2305 using WPCentral Forums mobile app

 

[snowmutt]

First off I feel you on the loss of webOS. It hurts my soul.
Ok now that I got that out of the way. I was reading the article on Huawei and immediately thought about making an antithesis to your thread. I have bad feelings for WP. Very bad. Your post is what you hope will happen and I hope for good things as well, but I think back to when I was hoping for webOS.
I just think MS has such a bad rep and even worse marketing/PR that it is going to be difficult for them going forward in the consumer space. They flat out missed the boat on mobile and they are still playing catch-up.
I do agree that a lot of manufacturers will see WP as a viable alternative to android, but the problem there is that even if MS reduces any cost for them, they still need to actually sell. Now, this year could just be an outlier as WP was growing in the previous year. However, MS needs to hit every single point you just made and more to gain any market share. The BIGGEST issue which is out of there hands really is app development. Devs need to actually make apps for the platform. I know that everyone is hoping universal apps will be WP's saving grace, but I have this bad gut feeling that it will not help as much as they need it to. Here's to hoping I am very wrong. Also, sorry for being more pessimistic but that is just my fears to your hopes. :wink:

...which I why I wrote the post. I totally understand that this is the low point of WP by far. But for all it's problems, there are still advantages that no other OS with aspirations of being the third ecosystem has. It has MS with deep pockets, carriers willing to carry the product, multiple OEMs willing to build, and a still-growing app store.

Truly, there is only one way WP does not succeed in my opinion: If the public market for cell phones- what, about a couple billion sold a year- does not want a third OS for smart phones. As WP was growing every year until this year, I feel that there is a desire for something different. WP just has to capitalize on that desire.

 

[Visa Declined]

I feel as though I should invade Google HQ now and start shooting ......

This isn't very funny, even saying as a joke. It certainly isn't something I would expect to see written by a forum moderator of this site.

 

[salmanahmad]

This has come up in bits and pieces in other threads like "What if MS stops selling high end hardware?" or "What is Nokia becomes the only WP manufacturer?", so I thought I would take what we know from history, add what we have heard in rumors, add a little what may be to come, and half-bake it at 430 degrees and see what it looks like to everyone else.

I am not shy in saying this: 2014 has been a crap year for our favorite OS. A huge drop in sales and sales were small to start with. Nokia in complete flux. There are still people who say the release and support of Microsoft services to iOS and Android are better and show a lack of support for WP and doubt the dedication to WP. Throw in some ugliness between Samsung and MS, Huawei dropping WP (oh, sorry- they have put WP devices "on hold". My bad.). Very little rumors of top end devices coming this winter.

Let us face it.... this has been a bad year and as far as mobile goes, it cannot get over fast enough.

However, I will say that we need to look at what WP offers MS. Then we can throw some ideas as to what the future holds.

Yes, Mobile versions of MS products certainly seem better on the Android and iOS offerings. But, I submit this is a good thing. Why? As Windows 9 comes out this year and WP9 comes out next year, the play time will be over. There can be no more "not good enough, still developing" or "just wait until NEXT update" versions of Windows or WP. What is more, Mr. Nadella has shown one thing since becoming CEO: He is not accepting excuses. WP dropping sales percentage may be a blessing in disguise: When these versions come out, the Skype, Office, Maps, and all other integrations as well as tools will be ready for primetime. WP cannot live without being on par with Android and iOS.

Yes, there has been sluggish phone development this year, but with no licensing charge, there is very little reason for OEMs to not give WP another shot. With Nokia handset development now under MS, there seems to be a group back to the "only Nokia will make handsets" due to bad sales. I feel we have less to worry about in that then we think due to MS ace in the hole: Patent agreements coming to MS from OEMs using Android. MS can offer cut rate style agreements in exchange for developing WP devices. I have always thought that these patent agreements have paid for the development of WP anyways.

So, how do I see the next 18-24 months shaking out? I see this breaking down this way:

-Nokia devices become mid-range to low-range offerings. What has been the most successful WP lines? The cheaper, entry level and mid-range devices. I am sorry- neither iOS or Android can compete with the smoothness of WP on these devices. They can match build quality and hardware, but over the life of these devices, WP just runs better and eat less battery. MS will need to show a profit on this purchase, and these devices are the way to do that.

-The sales of these devices will hopefully push WP to a decent percentage again, and developers will still be encouraged to build apps and support the apps on the Store. There isn't a chance WP catches up to Android and iOS, but it doesn't need to. Half a million- 750,000 apps is the number that Android had when it took off and passed iOS even though Apple had more in their store. WP needs that number of GOOD APPS to be able to kill this argument once and for all.

-MS will show that the HTC ONE (M8) for Windows is the way to go for high end devices. OEMs already have these high end devices being pumped out for Android. By removing the fees and hardware restrictions, releasing these devices as the high end WP's offer a small investment with a nice opportunity for a good return. If MS can help with promotion, then OEMs will have a back up for Android that just doesn't exist for them right now.

I still see WP breaking that mythical 10% sales barrier by 2016-2017. That will be more then enough sales to keep WP growth strong and make it profitable. It will give MS it's own OS to build a loyal following to it's services and cloud tools. It will give OEMs and carriers an out from Android and iOS owning the market.

I hope I am right. I have already seen the death of one OS I loved- WebOS- I do not want to see the death of another. As I truly feel BlackBerry may no longer in a position to truly challenge, WP is the only OS on the market right now in a position to offer an option.

WP will not recover from another 2014. So, MS will not allow it to have one.

My humble opinion.

The low end market belonged to Windows Phone for quite some months however with the arrival of Moto G and E, Windows Phone has lost that place. I don't see it thriving any more than it did in 2014, sorry.

 

[prasath1234]

The low end market belonged to Windows Phone for quite some months however with the arrival of Moto G and E, Windows Phone has lost that place. I don't see it thriving any more than it did in 2014, sorry.

Hey plz don't talk negatively about wp atleast in Windows forum.we here are wp enthusiasts we want wp to survive.am sure it will.

Sent from my C2305 using WPCentral Forums mobile app

 

[tgp]

The low end market belonged to Windows Phone for quite some months however with the arrival of Moto G and E, Windows Phone has lost that place. I don't see it thriving any more than it did in 2014, sorry.

I wouldn't say that WP ever owned the low end market. A large part of WP sales are low end, but it's still insignificant when compared to the entire low end market.

 

[salmanahmad]

Hey plz don't talk negatively about wp atleast in Windows forum.we here are wp enthusiasts we want wp to survive.am sure it will.

Sent from my C2305 using WPCentral Forums mobile app

I don't want Windows Phone to fail anymore than you guys, but I gave you a truthful opinion and the truth is hard to swallow for some people.

I wouldn't say that WP ever owned the low end market. A large part of WP sales are low end, but it's still insignificant when compared to the entire low end market.

Eh, but still despite being more of Android enthusiast I would agree a year back that there was no comparison between the low end Lumias and Android devices, but now I would definitely pick the Moto G over a Lumia 630. But then again it's my opinion. However Moto G performs equally as smooth as a low end Windows Phone would.

 

[prasath1234]

I don't want Windows Phone to fail anymore than you guys, but I gave you a truthful opinion and the truth is hard to swallow for some people.



Eh, but still despite being more of Android enthusiast I would agree a year back that there was no comparison between the low end Lumias and Android devices, but now I would definitely pick the Moto G over a Lumia 630. But then again it's my opinion. However Moto G performs equally as smooth as a low end Windows Phone would.

Ya I agree moto g is masterclass but I love Asus zenphone 5 also.it is value for Money device here in India.

Sent from my C2305 using WPCentral Forums mobile app

 

[Steve Adams]

You poor thing using an android phone. Android is the Kia of the phone world. Pump out millions of cheap crap product with no substance. I ditched my androids as soon as wp8 came out. So happy I did. WP is the best OS.

 

[tgp]

Eh, but still despite being more of Android enthusiast I would agree a year back that there was no comparison between the low end Lumias and Android devices, but now I would definitely pick the Moto G over a Lumia 630. But then again it's my opinion. However Moto G performs equally as smooth as a low end Windows Phone would.

I'm talking about sales, not performance. Yes, until recently WP may have had the edge in low end performance, but it never became a factor in sales volume, low end or otherwise.

 

[Reeves]

I think it's odd that people always break down into 1 of 2 camps, both of which overstate the situation:

1) "Windows Phone is doomed, the devices will never sell, and no version of it will be the "magic bullet" that will suddenly make it succeed."

I think this is wrong because Microsoft is a huge corporation that cannot afford to be excluded from the mobile world. It will always have some influence providing services on Android and iOS, but it needs a distinct, native platform or it will be just another provider of music/video/office/whatever. That's a recipe for death, and Microsoft knows that. Also, operating systems aren't what get people excited. DEVICES are what excites them. Android took off when Verizon pimped the DROID device pretty hard and made it a tangible object of lust that could rival iPhone when it was exclusive to ATT. Then, the Galaxy series took the baton from there and the rest is history. When Windows Phone has a compelling device - and no Windows Phone device has been compelling to mainstream buyers as of yet. Not one Lumia. Not one Titan. not one 8X. All niche.

2) "Microsoft is too big to fail, and they will never give up on mobile. They have unlimited funds to spend just like how Xbox and Bing have operated at a loss for so long...."

Well, there's a difference between existing and thriving. Blackberry is currently existing and will continue to exist for quite some time. But as for it being a thriving platform anyone wants to actually use....no. That's just a couple of levels below where we are now. Windows Phone has a perception problem that needs to be solved before they address the carrier problem or app problem or whatever. Those are symptoms of the perception problem. That perception is that it's a pointless joke of a platform kept alive artificially by Microsoft money. I work for a huge retailer that actually has a WP "app" in addition to the Android and iOS apps. Of course, it is little more than a web wrap for the mobile site, and everyone from our executives to our developers crack jokes about Windows Phone. Meanwhile, the Android and iOS tablets are viewed as viable platforms that we constantly test and add cool features to. We're not alone.

It's not undeserved. Since WP devices aren't sold across carriers, "people" aren't looking for them. The customers of a particular carrier are just looking for a particular device. And since Microsoft/Nokia isn't following up with yearly upgrades on each range (no 1020 successor, no 930 on ATT, etc.), there's no momentum built. The Galaxy franchise didn't achieve dominance overnight. They released the S across all carriers (with custom models for Sprint). Then, they had a follow-up on those same carriers 12 months later. Then, again. And so on and so forth.

So even if everything else was going right, it would be to no avail. Of course, it isn't. 8.1 is still kind of a mess with "Resuming...." appearing far too frequently. The music app is still too slow in multitasking. There is still no choice in browsers. There's still almost no big name games that people are talking about on social media available on Windows Phone the same time they are on the big two. I think for the foreseeable future, this will remain a distant, distant third platform for UI enthusiasts or camera enthusiasts only. If you care about widely available top shelf devices, Microsoft is telling you to look elsewhere. Same for major apps that people are talking about.

 

[Laura Knotek]

The low end market belonged to Windows Phone for quite some months however with the arrival of Moto G and E, Windows Phone has lost that place. I don't see it thriving any more than it did in 2014, sorry.

I wouldn't say that WP ever owned the low end market. A large part of WP sales are low end, but it's still insignificant when compared to the entire low end market.

I don't think it necessarily matters, since there is room in the market for more than 2 platforms.

For example, everyone knows Coke and Pepsi. However, there are other colas sold, such as RC. RC isn't a big seller like Coke or Pepsi, but it is popular enough that it is still sold internationally and even has some new varieties recently introduced.

 

[Reeves]

I don't think it necessarily matters, since there is room in the market for more than 2 platforms.

For example, everyone knows Coke and Pepsi. However, there are other colas sold, such as RC. RC isn't a big seller like Coke or Pepsi, but it is popular enough that it is still sold internationally and even has some new varieties recently introduced.

​Sure, but ask people here if they want to be on "The RC Cola of mobile platforms". I think everyone has higher hopes and/or aspirations than that.

 

[Laura Knotek]

​Sure, but ask people here if they want to be on "The RC Cola of mobile platforms". I think everyone has higher hopes and/or aspirations than that.

Whether or not one chooses a particular electronic device does not need to be a popularity contest. This isn't about sports, where one needs to be on the championship team. Heck, even in sports people support teams that are perennial losers. Look at the attendance figures for the Chicago Cubs. They haven't won a World Series since 1908, yet they are more popular than the Chicago White Sox, which won a World Series in 2005.

 

[salmanahmad]

You poor thing using an android phone. Android is the Kia of the phone world. Pump out millions of cheap crap product with no substance. I ditched my androids as soon as wp8 came out. So happy I did. WP is the best OS.

Now that's your opinion and I respect that, I am using a Nexus 5 and it's cheaper compared to other flagship devices and I assure you that it's not crap.

If you want to argue about both OSes, this wouldn't be the place. We could talk via personal messages.

I don't think it necessarily matters, since there is room in the market for more than 2 platforms.

For example, everyone knows Coke and Pepsi. However, there are other colas sold, such as RC. RC isn't a big seller like Coke or Pepsi, but it is popular enough that it is still sold internationally and even has some new varieties recently introduced.

I could agree that Windows Phone can definitely become a solid place third OS but the question is...how?

I mean what is it about Windows Phone that puts it above other operating systems?

Before it was the camera or the photography aspect, but most smartphones have great cameras now.

It was the performance but Android 4.4 has pretty much put performance of Android on par with other leading operating systems. iOS has always been the best performing OS out there.

What does WP offer that Android and iOS don't?