12-20-2014 08:23 AM
47 12
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  1. theefman's Avatar
    I somewhat disagree that MS is as incompetent as you make them out to be (maybe with the exception of marketing and their reluctance to communicate a vision). Most of their problems are not a result of incompetence, but a result of their weak market position, which allows carriers and competitors to trample all over them. If you were an executive at MS you'd have fared no better, and we'd now all be calling you incompetent. I wouldn't agree with that either. The fact is consumer demand must come first, and until that happens, the economic and legal environment will stay unchanged. That's an obstacle MS can't overcome until a lot more consumers decide WP is worth giving a try.

    As for everything else, yes, I hear ya. I think we just have different definitions of what a monstrous disruption is. IMHO not even the iPhone would qualify for that. Monstrous disruptions are those technologies/ideas which singlehandedly bring into existence a whole new market that did not exist before, like the introduction of the personal computer, the personal automobile, the radio, or the internet. I also agree that MS needs more than just few small innovations, assuming "small" means "non-disruptive". Disruptive means what I've been saying all along. Something that is unique to WP, which many find desirable enough to look past the app gap. That doesn't need to be a single thing, but at least a few things that in combination have the same affect on enough people.

    The only way that can be considered impossible is due to a lack of imagination. I'm not saying this will happen, but in no way is it impossible. MS still has a few things they are uniquely positioned to latch on to, but so far haven't. Cloud gaming with XBOX tie-in, deep integration of WP within the enterprise, and the long expected integration between Windows, Xbox and WP are just some examples. That is all relatively low hanging fruit. In combination I'd consider those more than disruptive enough... and there is more...
    As always, you have some good points. However, I still disagree especially on the premise that Microsoft is not incompetent. I don't think their poor marketing should be excluded as an example of their incompetence, after all that has been one of apple's biggest weapons and is a key skill to master in today's marketing driven world. Apple's marketing was able to help Mac sales with their PC vs Mac ads and of course when the iphone launched marketing played a key role in generating iphone sales even when it was technically less advanced and capable than competing platforms like BlackBerry, Windows Mobile and Palm. Why is it, with all the billions Microsoft makes they are incapable of marketing WP effectively? In fact the norm seems to be now that Microsoft adds a truly unique feature to WP but fails to market it but a competitor picks up the feature and is able to market it as if they invented it and get credit for it. If that's not incompetence, what is?

    As to your point about WP's market position I'm not sure that hinders Microsoft in their in-house development efforts or how they market the product, in fact its their inability to effectively market WP that has lead to their poor marketshare. After all, if no one knows about the product, how will they buy it? And when people eventually get their hands on it and find it lacks expected features, who's to blame for that?

    Looking at WP itself, back when it was launched it was so lacking in features it didn't have copy and paste. How could a company like Microsoft who has been in the software business for as long as they have launch such a barebones product, missing the exact same feature that its main competitor, the iphone was mocked for so long for missing and also considering the state of the two major platforms at that time? They launched a product that should at least have been competitive as they had the benefit of launching after the other 2 and could see what gaps needed to be filled from both platforms but instead they launched something that was behind even the crippled iphone on release. Ever since then WP has been playing catch-up and now seems to be forever stuck in the rear view mirrors of ios and android. 7.5 Mango, 7.8. 8.0, 8.1 all still lack functionality compared to ios and android. That's incompetent.

    As for how big a disruption Microsoft would need to get people interested in WP, consider the marketshare and more importantly mindshare that ios and android have and you realize that it has to be something big to get peoples attention. Ask the average man on the street what platforms they know and they'll probably tell you the iphone and Samsung galaxy, and while those are not strictly platforms it shows how much mindshare apple and android have. How is Microsoft going to enter that conversation, that will have people notice them for more than 5 minutes and have the millions of ios, android and new smartphone users considering them as a legitimate smartphone choice? Remember they have to overcome the lack of apps, stupid carrier exclusivity, poor international bing services. I'm not sure anything less than a game changing innovation would be enough to counter all the things currently going against WP.

    And I don't think Microsoft is capable of such creativity and focus. Its important to note that the current WP team has been in place since its launch so how can we expect them to suddenly reverse all the poor decisions that have been made to date and come out with something amazing? WP is a very good, fresh, unique operating system but who made the decision not to allow full resolution pictures to be sent by email? Who decided a business phone should omit the ability to directly attach business related documents like office files, even after they added file explorer access? Who said, don't let users set their IE homepage, or set a default media application, or not add smart dialing? These are all things that should be technically possible but for some reason it was decided not to add such needed functionality but instead add fluff like transparent tiles, and as long as the people who made these decisions are still the ones calling the shots then I don't see anything changing.
    12-12-2014 12:25 PM
  2. fatclue_98's Avatar
    Who decided a business phone should omit the ability to directly attach business related documents like office files, even after they added file explorer access?
    The same Einstein who implemented the same policy on the iPhone. If it wasn't for the Mail Plus app, I seriously doubt I'd be on WP. An enterprise-class device must have this function baked in as well as Windows Mobile's network file sharing. I can sort of understand the reasoning behind emailing photos as a lower res file because with today's uber-pixel shooters, 2 or 3 pictures can easily surpass most email servers' limit (usually 10mb). I guess they figure a OneDrive link is easier to email.
    12-12-2014 01:56 PM
  3. TechmeIN64's Avatar
    If Windows on phones hit 10% by mid 2017 I'd be ecstatic.
    smoheath likes this.
    12-12-2014 02:25 PM
  4. ssapre's Avatar
    Happy Dreaming!!! Thought you somehow left your iPhone & Android phone locked in the drawer while Windows Phone was only out there for next few years !!
    12-12-2014 07:40 PM
  5. steve cooper's Avatar
    High hopes
    12-12-2014 10:32 PM
  6. prasath1234's Avatar
    I'm sure Cortana would come to android or ios within 2 years that is for sure.
    From Windows phone
    12-13-2014 12:28 AM
  7. Guytronic's Avatar
    If apps were less important to users of the other two platforms would they be the leaders?

    Lots of concern about "market share" doesn't mean much.
    The real deal is "am I happy for the money spent?"

    If you are are pleased with a device that serves your needs for a disposable cost then the target has been hit.
    Of course the app-centric attitude is causing damage to the MM device market.
    My opinion is that this will wane eventually and Microsoft is banking on it.

    Goes without saying time will tell.
    12-13-2014 12:50 AM
  8. D M C's Avatar
    your imagination went wild after 2018.

    Anyway, Sweet dreams.
    12-13-2014 03:18 AM
  9. adkrish22290's Avatar
    From an Indian point of view, @crise's speculations could happen. Before 2011, very few in India cared or bothered about Android or Samsung; for most of us Indians, mobile phone meant Nokia. But from 2011 onwards, Android rapidly gained market share, coinciding with the astonishing free fall of Nokia's market share. Today, Android's market share in India is 81%, with Samsung accounting for 38% of all Android phone sales.

    So, anything is possible.
    a5cent likes this.
    12-13-2014 03:47 AM
  10. JamesPTao's Avatar
    I'm sure Cortana would come to android or ios within 2 years that is for sure.
    From Windows phone
    No, it wont. It would have to be integrated Into their os's.
    12-13-2014 03:52 AM
  11. JamesPTao's Avatar
    I kind of have the feeling that you are underestimating Google's / Apple's innovation departments. If they were to not develop their ecosystems further over the next 10 years, I might potentially agree with some of your estimates, but that is likely not going to happen.
    Android maybe, apple not really. They have never really been known for innovation. The tech already existed for modern smartphones they simply took a big gamble and took a loss on the first ones knowing they would recover it most likely later on. They have one hell of a pr and advertising departments, but innovation not so much.
    12-13-2014 03:58 AM
  12. JamesPTao's Avatar
    I believe only iOS will be there after 2024.all os would have packed their bags including android.That is because apple would have bought all the big companies .
    Now you are bordering delerious. Apple could never buy ms they wouldn't know what to do. They are by no means an enterprise company. Consumer software and fun toys yes, serious enterprise software not in the least.
    oviedofreak82 likes this.
    12-13-2014 04:00 AM
  13. Reflexx's Avatar
    There already is a huge disruption coming up. Windows 10.

    The line between PC and phone will be blurred.

    Most people will have PCs. They don't need to be convinced of the need to have a PC.

    WP will just be a PC with a mobile interface.

    I really would not be surprised if the next big thing that completely shakes up the market is that some people will have their phones replace their PCs completely. They will have docking stations at home that they just put their phones in and... BAM! You now have a fully functional computer with large screen and keyboard. Then if you need to get up and go just take your phone out of the docking station and pretty much take your PC with you.
    12-13-2014 04:07 AM
  14. fatclue_98's Avatar
    There already is a huge disruption coming up. Windows 10.

    The line between PC and phone will be blurred.

    Most people will have PCs. They don't need to be convinced of the need to have a PC.

    WP will just be a PC with a mobile interface.

    I really would not be surprised if the next big thing that completely shakes up the market is that some people will have their phones replace their PCs completely. They will have docking stations at home that they just put their phones in and... BAM! You now have a fully functional computer with large screen and keyboard. Then if you need to get up and go just take your phone out of the docking station and pretty much take your PC with you.

    Been tried repeatedly with little success. Foleo, Moto Lapdock and now the Asus rig. Desktops will not be ditched any time soon.
    12-13-2014 01:22 PM
  15. Reflexx's Avatar
    Tablets were tried unsuccessfully in the past too.

    Times change and people become ready.
    12-13-2014 03:22 PM
  16. anon(5969054)'s Avatar
    About the bad marketing.

    I think Microsoft doesn't market WP much on purpose. They know lots of people would be disappointed and turn their back to the OS forever. I think they secretly know the OS is not ready for the masses. I think once they are convinced of their own product, they will market the crap out of it. Maybe with windows 10. Maybe one year after its release when it has grown more stable and already has triggered some app growth.
    12-15-2014 05:03 AM
  17. tgp's Avatar
    About the bad marketing.

    I think Microsoft doesn't market WP much on purpose. They know lots of people would be disappointed and turn their back to the OS forever. I think they secretly know the OS is not ready for the masses. I think once they are convinced of their own product, they will market the crap out of it. Maybe with windows 10. Maybe one year after its release when it has grown more stable and already has triggered some app growth.
    This is actually my opinion as well. I believe that Microsoft knows it's too early to push WP too hard. They might just be waiting until WP is ready to run with the big boys.
    12-15-2014 07:25 AM
  18. ajst222's Avatar
    Definitely interesting, but the OP seems to be coming up with his predictions based on the improvements/developments of Windows 10 and assuming that Android and iOS are completely stagnant. They will be developing too. Only time will tell what they morph into as well
    12-15-2014 08:10 PM
  19. anon(5969054)'s Avatar
    Definitely interesting, but the OP seems to be coming up with his predictions based on the improvements/developments of Windows 10 and assuming that Android and iOS are completely stagnant. They will be developing too. Only time will tell what they morph into as well
    I'm not ignoring them. I'm just thinking that Microsoft has more innovation coming. And with the foot they already have in the PC market, business and consumer, they can accelerate.

    Also, the more time passes, the less big the so gap will be.

    It will take a while for the market share to get to 10-20%, but then growth will accelerate.
    12-17-2014 07:10 PM
  20. doob9911's Avatar
    10 years are very long time.
    Nobody can predict.
    Hardware innovation, Political Revolution, War, Economic chaos
    Predition is useless.
    12-17-2014 09:49 PM
  21. fatclue_98's Avatar
    10 years are very long time.
    Nobody can predict.
    Hardware innovation, Political Revolution, War, Economic chaos
    Predition is useless.
    Aren't you a ray of sunshine, jeez.
    a5cent likes this.
    12-17-2014 10:25 PM
  22. wuiyang's Avatar
    here's my prediction:
    by 2018, people would start cracking the windows phone
    by 2020, people that need to broke their phone and gain free apps required to open their phone, insert lots of wire
    by 2022, people crack the phone using only modified USB
    by 2024, installing an app and buy $20 modified USB could broke your phone and get free apps
    by 2050, without any modify of USB, it took 10 minutes to crack it and access all system data
    12-20-2014 08:23 AM
47 12

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