12-20-2014 08:23 AM
47 12
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  1. anon(5969054)'s Avatar
    My prediction down below. :) Share your own and your thoughts!

    Current:
    Android: 84%
    iOS: 12%
    Windows: 3%
    Others: 1%

    2016 (Windows gains due Windows 10, Android loses most):
    Android: 80%
    iOS: 12%
    Windows: 7%
    Others: 1%

    2018 (More and more people start to discover Windows 10 and even some Apple fans hop over):
    Android: 70%
    Windows: 18%
    iOS: 11%
    Others: 1%

    2020 (The **** gets real. Developers see Windows 10 as a number 1 developing platform, Windows market share almost doubles, Apple fans see no reason anymore to pay extra for Apple stuff):
    Android: 60%
    Windows: 31%
    iOS: 8%
    Others: 1%

    2022 (Windows takes another huge gain because it has zero disadvantages anymore, Apple takes a big drop because it becomes to expensive for people and they lack innovation):
    Android: 40%
    Windows: 54%
    iOS: 5%
    Others: 1%

    2024 (Windows is the number 1 mobile OS because finally all sheeps have been convinced. Android and iOS have failed to bring 1 OS for all devices):
    Windows: 65% :)
    Android: 30%
    iOS: 4%
    Others: 1%
    Last edited by crise; 12-11-2014 at 02:02 PM.
    12-11-2014 01:49 PM
  2. prasath1234's Avatar
    Good imagination.
    12-11-2014 02:19 PM
  3. shayanr's Avatar
    Meanwhile blackberry is on the list too..check out their 10.3.1 update they brought the amazon app store and they have cool new features..consider blackberry too..blackberry is sidelined just like windows and behind the curtain they both are putting their cards for the upcoming future
    12-11-2014 02:31 PM
  4. theefman's Avatar
    Fantasy.
    12-11-2014 03:37 PM
  5. mathsisbest's Avatar
    I don't see Windows gaining more than 10% market share in the next 10 years. Maybe after that
    cheehong likes this.
    12-11-2014 03:54 PM
  6. Jas00555's Avatar
    I just don't understand how you think it will go from 7% to 18% in two years.
    12-11-2014 03:55 PM
  7. Guytronic's Avatar
    We won't even be carrying smartphones in 10 years.
    At least not what we call a smartphone today...
    jmshub and Laura Knotek like this.
    12-11-2014 03:56 PM
  8. someone2639's Avatar
    Good, but then we wouldn't be different!
    12-11-2014 04:20 PM
  9. LockOnTech's Avatar
    Optimistic predictions, we'll have to wait and see; The world is constantly changing.


    Sent from my iPhone 5s using Tapatalk
    12-11-2014 04:21 PM
  10. a5cent's Avatar
    Apple went from 0% to 45% smartphone market share in the U.S. in under five years. Before that they were basically a music company with an irrelevant computer division on the side. People just get caught up in the here and now and can't imagine anything changing, until it does. Thinking we can reliably predict changes in the consumer market beyond the three year mark just isn't very realistic. Not saying it will, but anything can happen.
    12-11-2014 04:56 PM
  11. fatclue_98's Avatar
    I just don't understand how you think it will go from 7% to 18% in two years.
    All it takes is one game changer. Remember the HTC Dream? It was a novelty until the Moto Droid came out less than 2 years later. How'd that work out?
    a5cent, Guytronic and Laura Knotek like this.
    12-11-2014 06:05 PM
  12. Yazen's Avatar
    Being way too optimistic ;)
    12-11-2014 06:12 PM
  13. Pacus1x's Avatar
    Being way too optimistic ;)
    Who knows... maybe not those numbers, but at least with 10 - 15% of market share you can have a decent ecosystem.
    12-11-2014 06:19 PM
  14. theefman's Avatar
    Apple went from 0% to 45% smartphone market share in the U.S. in under five years. Before that they were basically a music company with an irrelevant computer division on the side. People just get caught up in the here and now and can't imagine anything changing, until it does. Thinking we can reliably predict changes in the consumer market beyond the three year mark just isn't very realistic. Not saying it will, but anything can happen.

    Apple came to the market with something new and fresh that captured the imagination of the ordinary consumer who no one else had been able to attract. Plus their loyal band of followers. That's a scenario that's hard to imagine being repeated.
    12-11-2014 06:33 PM
  15. a5cent's Avatar
    Apple came to the market with something new and fresh that captured the imagination of the ordinary consumer who no one else had been able to attract. Plus their loyal band of followers. That's a scenario that's hard to imagine being repeated.
    Very few people are visionary enough to foresee any of the disruptive technologies before they actually came to market. How many were visionary enough to imagine the telephone before it replaced the telegraph? How many imagined the pocket calculator before it replaced their fingers? How many envisioned the potential of the CD before it arrived? How many people here had the imagination and technical smarts to envision something like an iPhone (with all the things that made it the success it became) before 2007. Nobody. We could easily list a hundred more examples if we wanted to. In hindsight these things all seem obvious, but that's always true of any good idea.

    These are obviously extreme examples of disruptive technologies, but MS doesn't need that level of disruption. Two or three smaller ones will do fine.
    Last edited by a5cent; 12-11-2014 at 07:19 PM. Reason: spelling
    12-11-2014 06:56 PM
  16. anon(8985111)'s Avatar
    I kind of have the feeling that you are underestimating Google's / Apple's innovation departments. If they were to not develop their ecosystems further over the next 10 years, I might potentially agree with some of your estimates, but that is likely not going to happen.
    12-12-2014 01:25 AM
  17. shayanr's Avatar
    So you think only windows will develop and apple and google will just sit back and watch..for your 2024 I might see iOs on the top
    12-12-2014 04:02 AM
  18. prasath1234's Avatar
    I believe only iOS will be there after 2024.all os would have packed their bags including android.That is because apple would have bought all the big companies .
    12-12-2014 04:21 AM
  19. sdc1's Avatar
    Is this the most ridiculous thread ever posted? Possibly...
    12-12-2014 04:31 AM
  20. oviedofreak82's Avatar
    I don't think it's possible for Windows to be #1. I think it's realistic to say that Windows Phone global market share in five years will reach 10-15%.
    12-12-2014 06:12 AM
  21. theefman's Avatar
    Very few people are visionary enough to foresee any of the disruptive technologies before they actually came to market. How many were visionary enough to imagine the telephone before it replaced the telegraph? How many imagined the pocket calculator before it replaced their fingers? How many envisioned the potential of the CD before it arrived? How many people here had the imagination and technical smarts to envision something like an iPhone (with all the things that made it the success it became) before 2007. Nobody. We could easily list a hundred more examples if we wanted to. In hindsight these things all seem obvious, but that's always true of any good idea.

    These are obviously extreme examples of disruptive technologies, but MS doesn't need that level of disruption. Two or three smaller ones will do fine.


    Microsoft needs a monstrous disruption to even make a dent in the incumbents. A couple of small innovations wont do anything. There are hundreds of millions of ios and android users already entrenched in their ecosystems and new smartphone users are aspiring to join one of those, not Microsoft's platforms. And not only does Microsoft have to come up with something game changing they also have to market it, support it and manage it properly. From the evidence of the last 4 years Microsoft has shown no capability of being able to pull that off.
    12-12-2014 07:01 AM
  22. tgp's Avatar
    The scenario in the original post is simply a wish by the poster, nothing more. I doubt whether he actually thinks it will happen. But yet it is possible.

    The chances of anything close to that happening are slim to none, but you never know. There was a thread on here not long ago comparing the IDC's predictions today from several years ago, and also comparing their predictions from several years ago to reality today. Nobody knows (or has any kind of a clue actually!).

    There are videos all over the web of Steve Ballmer laughing at the iPhone and Android, while at the time Windows Mobile was basking in a 40% market share in the US. Now who's laughing? However, the current situation could reverse in a few short years.
    Hoekie likes this.
    12-12-2014 07:06 AM
  23. a5cent's Avatar
    Microsoft needs a monstrous disruption to even make a dent in the incumbents. A couple of small innovations wont do anything. There are hundreds of millions of ios and android users already entrenched in their ecosystems and new smartphone users are aspiring to join one of those, not Microsoft's platforms. And not only does Microsoft have to come up with something game changing they also have to market it, support it and manage it properly. From the evidence of the last 4 years Microsoft has shown no capability of being able to pull that off.
    I somewhat disagree that MS is as incompetent as you make them out to be (maybe with the exception of marketing and their reluctance to communicate a vision). Most of their problems are not a result of incompetence, but a result of their weak market position, which allows carriers and competitors to trample all over them. If you were an executive at MS you'd have fared no better, and we'd now all be calling you incompetent. I wouldn't agree with that either. The fact is consumer demand must come first, and until that happens, the economic and legal environment will stay unchanged. That's an obstacle MS can't overcome until a lot more consumers decide WP is worth giving a try.

    As for everything else, yes, I hear ya. I think we just have different definitions of what a monstrous disruption is. IMHO not even the iPhone would qualify for that. Monstrous disruptions are those technologies/ideas which singlehandedly bring into existence a whole new market that did not exist before, like the introduction of the personal computer, the privately owned automobile, the radio, or the internet. However I agree that MS needs more than just a few small innovations, assuming "small" means "non-disruptive". Disruptive means what I've been saying all along. Something that is unique to WP, which many find desirable enough to look past the app gap. That doesn't need to be a single thing, but at least a few things that in combination have the same affect on enough people.

    The only way that can be considered impossible is due to a lack of imagination. I'm not saying this will happen, but in no way is it impossible. MS still has a few things they are uniquely positioned to latch on to, but so far haven't. Cloud gaming with XBOX tie-in, deep integration of WP within the enterprise, and the long expected integration between Windows, Xbox and WP are just some examples. That is all relatively low hanging fruit. In combination I'd consider those more than disruptive enough... and there is more...
    Last edited by a5cent; 12-12-2014 at 12:41 PM. Reason: spelling
    jmshub, theefman, Hoekie and 2 others like this.
    12-12-2014 07:45 AM
  24. jmshub's Avatar
    ^Exactly. The sad part about Microsoft's market position is that they have made many innovations to the smartphone landscape since releasing Windows Phone 7 in 2010. Unfortunately, many people first saw these innovations on Android and iPhone handsets later and weren't aware that Microsoft invented them.
    Hoekie, a5cent and Guytronic like this.
    12-12-2014 08:45 AM
  25. anon(5969054)'s Avatar
    Guys, of course this is wishful thinking, but I'll gladly refer to this topic in a few years when I'm on track.
    Hoekie likes this.
    12-12-2014 09:35 AM
47 12

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