Will 2015 Be the year for Windows Phone ?

[TechAbstract]

I expect apps will come quickly to Windows Store since Windows 10 will have millions users from Windows 7. The user base will be too large for developers to ignore.

 

[Theayalalalalon]

Windows 10 pc looks great
Windows 10 phone looks so bad...

 

[jcooljawesome]

Hmmm interesting you say that because after updating to the Denim update it seems Microsoft is really trying to push this mobile operating system for users that are debating on switching.

 

[Keith Wallace]

I'll vote against it, and hard. They've got no announced release date for Windows 10, and it could be in the fall. If that's the case, they're not going to build serious traction in only a couple of months--just as their WP8 growth didn't come as soon as the OS launched in late-2012. They're not going to get a perfect launch, as no one does. 2015 is going to basically be a public beta, where we get the initial hardware and software, and spend a few months complaining about things like we did with WP8--random reboot loops, bricked devices, light-bleeding displays, missing apps, etc.

If you want to talk about meaningful growth, then you likely have to wait until 2017. By then, Windows 10 will be not only matured, but possibly close to replacement. We'll then see if Microsoft has actually established a plan for a long-term mobile ecosystem, as everything with Windows Phone has so far been poorly planned and an overall bust. A lot of folks have seen and recognized the abandonment of WP7, and they fear it for WP8 users. They see the Windows-based app gaps and need assurances of usability growth before they buy in. So, 2015 is going to be a trial run. 2016 is going to be a time to prove that there is a long-term plan. 2017 is the time to present that plan and get a decent following of faithful customers.

It's actually like how 2014 was for Windows Phone 8. We started seeing some low-end sector growth in 2013 and 2014. however, we also saw Microsoft use 2014 to absorb Nokia's handset division, then watched as they butchered things for several months (not releasing a high-end device, severely hampering Xbox Music, not bringing in enough big-name applications), only to lead up to a 2015 Windows 10 launch to try again. Microsoft's had this "try for 2 years, then reboot," issue since 2010, and they're going to need 2 years of consistency and proof it won't come with another reboot before people believe in them.

 

[Flat Tire]

No, it'll be the year of the iPhone 6.

I don't think Microsoft will be in a much better place at the end of this year than they were last.

 

[Schnuffi]

Seems many are wishing for a flagship phone, I personally like my 620 because of the size. I Am a guy and I already have to carry the phone,keys glasses, wallet and what ever else. The 620 fits good in my work pants that have special pocket for cell phone. I don't like the trend toward large cell phones I just don't want to get a man purse. LOL

 

[m1ke999]

I think it will take a year or 2 to get the W10P rolling.

 

[Panathas]

2015 will be the year of Linux desktop, for sure

 

[Dk92]

I doubt it. It's still fun being the only one in a bunch with a different phone though. Microsoft now markets their phones as a mere Windows desktop companion, and that's exactly how I think of them.

 

[DJCBS]

You really think that Windows on a phone will never make a dent in the smartphone market share?

Mobile is easier to break through than Windows on desktop with every OEM pushing Windows desktop OS heavily. I don't think you understand that. Chrome OS doesn't have the capabilities of Windows on desktop. It's not on same playground. Windows 10 will be on the level of Android on mobile. What Microsoft needs is to get more devices out there. Either by winning more OEMs or produce those devices themselves.

The problem is that WP fans, generally, can't admit the failure of the WP platform. It's like those generals in a War that simply refuse to admit defeat. It's human, I'm not censoring it. But I think it's time to be a bit more realistic and less hopeful.
No, I don't think Windows on a phone will never make a dent in the smartphone market share. First and foremost because it's NOT Windows on a phone. If it was real Windows on a phone, maybe it would make a dent. Mainly because developers would be able to provide their programs on a phone too. Of course, we'd be talking about full x86 programs, not "Universal apps" which require developers to create the programs as an app to start with (or a massive investment to turn a program into an app). It would be ideal but a really hard project to pull off.

You're right, ChromeOS doesn't have the same capabilities of Windows on desktop.
And neither does WP have the same capabilities of Android on a phone.

And that's the thing. While WP (or "Windows 10 on phones" whatever you want to call it) remains closer to iOS than to Android, it will have in the smartphone market the exact same power that ChromeOS has on the Desktop.

There's little point in flooding the market with devices that people don't want to buy.
The only thing Microsoft CAN do to attract people to WP is open up the OS AND insist (and bribe if necessary) developers of major platforms to put their apps on Windows Phone AND support them. It's more than having the app on the platform. It's having the app AND assuring the developers don't abandon it like, say, Instagram.
The other alternative would be for Microsoft to assume the development of the majority of the apps (like they do with Facebook) which would require a tremendous financial effort that I'm dead sure that Microsoft shareholders would never allow.

So yes, I'm convinced that WP will never have its year. I think the platform failed, much due to Microsoft's own lack of commitment to it. Microsoft can flood the market with cheap WP devices, it will still make no difference. It's not the lack of hardware that is making people stay away from WP. It never was. It's WP itself.
Microsoft had its best chance when Nokia was around to lift off WP. Microsoft decided it wasn't worth the effort and left Nokia with all the work, trying to promote an OS they weren't even responsible for. Now Nokia has left and Microsoft is keeping the same level of commitment to WP. The fact that they didn't even bother to spend much time with it on the 21st of January keynote is, to me, a very good example of that.
The focus of the entire mobile part of the presentation was in apps and mainly the Office suite. That tells me one thing: Microsoft's commitment is towards their mobile services more than towards its mobile operating system. And I don't think that's such a bad strategy.

I think internally, Microsoft has realised WP will never go anywhere. It will remain in 3rd place (assuming Tizen never actually takes off) and a distant third place. No matter how much money Microsoft throws into it. Windows (Phone) 10 will be, I think, Microsoft's last attempt at trying to make the WP platform relevant. If even with WP10 it doesn't take off, I think Microsoft will just discontinue the project and focus on PC/tablets and on their mobile services for Android and iOS.

 

[ajst222]

The problem is that WP fans, generally, can't admit the failure of the WP platform. It's like those generals in a War that simply refuse to admit defeat. It's human, I'm not censoring it. But I think it's time to be a bit more realistic and less hopeful.

Don't want to quote your entire post, but this is good enough. Windows Phone isn't a failure by any means. It's also not a success by any means. It's been a work in progress, and since 8.1 I believe it's just kind of sitting there in that middle ground. A lot of that had to have been a lot of the reorganizing of Nokia to Microsoft.

The biggest thing is to get ALL the carriers involved, and cut the sh!t with all the exclusive deals Nokia did. That's something major that stunted the growth of Windows Phone. Microsoft has the power and money to do away with the exclusivity, and I truly hope they do that.

You also don't seem to think that the universal apps aren't a big deal, which I couldn't disagree more with. If it all works out the way it's supposed to, it'll be something that no other platform has, and will be a massive library of apps across the board. Considering all the PCs running Windows 10, developers would have to be at least A LITTLE enticed to develop. That's another thing to get Windows 10 going in the mobile space.

 

[Mike Gibson]

If it was real Windows on a phone, maybe it would make a dent. Mainly because developers would be able to provide their programs on a phone too. Of course, we'd be talking about full x86 programs, not "Universal apps" which require developers to create the programs as an app to start with (or a massive investment to turn a program into an app). It would be ideal but a really hard project to pull off.

This is what I've been shouting at MSFT ever since I first saw the WinRT/WinPRT API. Instead of focusing on the true issue when dealing with different device types in Win32, the screen size and input modes, they went off on a tangent with a completely new API. That required massive rewriting of existing code and even structural changes due to the idiotic Async functionality at the API core. There was a zero userbase to sell into and, whatever sales you managed to make, MSFT took 30% compared to 6-10% for Win32 program resellers. It was all pain, no gain.

All MSFT had to do was define a modern subset of the existing Win32 API, add a scalable UI API and framework, and (most importantly) make the new system backwards compatible with Win7 via a platform update/redistributable. I would have jumped on a system like that. My programs would work better *and* most of my existing customers could use it. Everyone wins.

 

[DJCBS]

Don't want to quote your entire post, but this is good enough. Windows Phone isn't a failure by any means. It's also not a success by any means. It's been a work in progress, and since 8.1 I believe it's just kind of sitting there in that middle ground. A lot of that had to have been a lot of the reorganizing of Nokia to Microsoft.

The deal happened as a result of the failure of WP to take off. Ever since Microsoft took over, things haven't slowed because of the merging of half of Nokia's ex-D&S team. Because those people were put into Microsoft Mobile, a separate company. And the development of Windows Phone wasn't moved into Microsoft Mobile, it was put together with the Windows at Microsoft. Which means, there was absolutely no merging of the teams.
The Windows team was focused on Windows 10 and the WP team was put together to work in the dependence of what the Windows team was doing.

The biggest thing is to get ALL the carriers involved, and cut the sh!t with all the exclusive deals Nokia did. That's something major that stunted the growth of Windows Phone. Microsoft has the power and money to do away with the exclusivity, and I truly hope they do that.

It's really not. I mean, not globally. Your argument here starts from the very limited POV of an American. But the thing is, only in the USA do carriers have that amount of power. American consumers are tied into a system that doesn't work anywhere else in the World. A system based on carrier dependency, exclusive devices and heavy subsidizing.
But reality is: the rest of the World doesn't work that way. We buy out phones at full price. And we don't need to buy our phones to a specific carrier of them to work.
The problem of WP sales in the USA may be the carriers, sure. But that problem is derived from a bigger problem which is the way the American market works.

You also don't seem to think that the universal apps aren't a big deal, which I couldn't disagree more with. If it all works out the way it's supposed to, it'll be something that no other platform has, and will be a massive library of apps across the board. Considering all the PCs running Windows 10, developers would have to be at least A LITTLE enticed to develop. That's another thing to get Windows 10 going in the mobile space.

I don't think Universal apps are that big of a deal for a very very simple reason: Windows developers target the desktop market. Their programs are designed to work on an x86 frame. And currently, the majority of the market is on Windows XP and 7. Both of which have NO "apps" or Store. And EVEN if Microsoft was able to pass ALL those people from XP and 7 to Windows 10, people would still be using the same programs, the programs they've already bought. Which means they wouldn't be going out to spend money on new versions of the programs just because they *could* be available in the app format.

Not to mention turning x86 programs into Windows 10 apps would require a financial effort from the developers that simply wouldn't compensate the expenses.

AND then there's the additional problem that the majority of the apps that people demand when they buy a smartphone (Instagram, Vine, Tindr, Snapchat etc etc) aren't apps aimed at devices other than mobile devices. The chances of Instagram, for example, developing their app as a Universal Windows app are very very slim. Which means, Windows 10 Universal apps wouldn't still solve the app problem. In that sense, having Android apps running on Windows would accomplish that far easily.

 

[Luisraul924]

then there's the additional problem that the majority of the apps that people demand when they buy a smartphone (Instagram, Vine, Tindr, Snapchat etc etc) aren't apps aimed at devices other than mobile devices. The chances of Instagram, for example, developing their app as a Universal Windows app are very very slim. Which means, Windows 10 Universal apps wouldn't still solve the app problem.

This is true. I can't stress enough how true this is. It makes me sad that Windows Phone failed, but it is what it is.

 

[RavenSword]

Don't want to quote your entire post, but this is good enough. Windows Phone isn't a failure by any means. It's also not a success by any means. It's been a work in progress, and since 8.1 I believe it's just kind of sitting there in that middle ground. A lot of that had to have been a lot of the reorganizing of Nokia to Microsoft.

The biggest thing is to get ALL the carriers involved, and cut the sh!t with all the exclusive deals Nokia did. That's something major that stunted the growth of Windows Phone. Microsoft has the power and money to do away with the exclusivity, and I truly hope they do that.

You also don't seem to think that the universal apps aren't a big deal, which I couldn't disagree more with. If it all works out the way it's supposed to, it'll be something that no other platform has, and will be a massive library of apps across the board. Considering all the PCs running Windows 10, developers would have to be at least A LITTLE enticed to develop. That's another thing to get Windows 10 going in the mobile space.

Regardless of my past posts bemoaning the platform, id really like to see it succeed and get the apps. Id probaly switch to it too from my iphone. But honestly, I just dont see a compelling reason right now.

 

[spaulagain]

Windows Phone won't exist at the end of the year. So no, it's not the year for Windows Phones.

It's the year for Windows. And for everyone who thinks legacy apps will take Windows into the future, I don't get it. Alls signs point towards them being a dying platform. So yes, Universal apps will take over. Not now, but over the next 5 years, they will phase out the legacy apps. Only niche applications like super customized enterprise apps will remain in that environment.

 

[spaulagain]

Don't want to quote your entire post, but this is good enough. Windows Phone isn't a failure by any means. It's also not a success by any means. It's been a work in progress, and since 8.1 I believe it's just kind of sitting there in that middle ground. A lot of that had to have been a lot of the reorganizing of Nokia to Microsoft.

The biggest thing is to get ALL the carriers involved, and cut the sh!t with all the exclusive deals Nokia did. That's something major that stunted the growth of Windows Phone. Microsoft has the power and money to do away with the exclusivity, and I truly hope they do that.

You also don't seem to think that the universal apps aren't a big deal, which I couldn't disagree more with. If it all works out the way it's supposed to, it'll be something that no other platform has, and will be a massive library of apps across the board. Considering all the PCs running Windows 10, developers would have to be at least A LITTLE enticed to develop. That's another thing to get Windows 10 going in the mobile space.

Amen, I can't believe the number of people down playing Universal apps. My dad who's been poo pooing the whole thing for several years (old enterprise/.NET developer) has completely flipped and is in full support now. We're actually in the process of starting a Universal app for a long term client.

Also, MS is working on supporting iOS and Android through the environment as well (with Xamarin).

 

[tiziano27]

AND then there's the additional problem that the majority of the apps that people demand when they buy a smartphone (Instagram, Vine, Tindr, Snapchat etc etc) aren't apps aimed at devices other than mobile devices. The chances of Instagram, for example, developing their app as a Universal Windows app are very very slim. Which means, Windows 10 Universal apps wouldn't still solve the app problem. In that sense, having Android apps running on Windows would accomplish that far easily.

Why wouldn't Instagram develop a universal app? Instagram makes money with ads, a universal app increase the engagement of the users and the ad revenue.

 

[Luisraul924]

Why wouldn't Instagram develop a universal app? Instagram makes money with ads, a universal app increase the engagement of the users and the ad revenue.

Because Instagram's primary focus is a mobile experience. The same could be said about Snapchat. If you want to share pictures in a stationary (desktop) environment you can use facebook for that. There's a reason both of these services require an in-app sign up process and don't allow users to sign up using their website, they're forcing a mobile experience.

 

[paulxxwall]

I guess all we can do is cross our fingers....all of this windows 10 stuff sounds like it would work for windows phone...but only in a perfect world