11-06-2015 09:49 AM
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  1. JohnIvory's Avatar
    Well, I think you have couple points in your original post incorrect. Windows 10 is absolutely MS's priority. Their focus was 100% on delivering Win10...the entirety of Win10 in July. By all accounts, its been one of the most successful launch in history. 110 Million installs in 8 weeks...not too shabby. So Microsoft absolutely pulled out all the stops to launch Win10. (You know...the thing that makes money to fund the parts that don't...ie. phones.)
    I agree, but notice I was talking about Windows Phone circa 2011, not right now. And also notice, that even with pulling out all the stops, Windows 10 desktop still took priority over Windows 10 Mobile. Windows Mobile, even with this merge is still behind in priorities for Microsoft. The merge makes it much better though. Because the OS's are the same now, they're not going to abandon mobile.
    10-10-2015 03:07 PM
  2. JohnIvory's Avatar
    Although, It's also naive to pretend that Microsoft can do *nothing* and still build a phone that fans or the enterprise could use.
    It's not an all-or-nothing situation. They have to spend and incur in losses to keep the product viable even for a small number of users. .
    While I agree with you about being optimistic about Windows Mobile, I don't agree with this statement here. You don't incur losses for a small amount of users. You incur losses if they help establish a (relatively) dominant market position. Look at Youtube and Xbox, two products that historically have lost money but commanded substantial portions of their markets. Those kinds of investments make sense. Windows Phone, with 3% share, simply isn't worth losing money on. It's worth investing in, sure, but not losing money on.
    10-10-2015 03:25 PM
  3. Spectrum90's Avatar
    While I agree with you about being optimistic about Windows Mobile, I don't agree with this statement here. You don't incur losses for a small amount of users. You incur losses if they help establish a (relatively) dominant market position. Look at Youtube and Xbox, two products that historically have lost money but commanded substantial portions of their markets. Those kinds of investments make sense. Windows Phone, with 3% share, simply isn't worth losing money on. It's worth investing in, sure, but not losing money on.
    There are big fixed costs in developing phones, so the relation between units sold and losses has a U shape. We don't have details of the operation so we can't estimate the number of units that minimize the losses. However, lets analyse some hypothetical scenarios (quarterly):

    Losses: $500 million.
    Units sold: 8 million.
    This is the current situation. It's unsustainable, losses are too high even for Microsoft.

    Losses: $200 million.
    Unit sold : 4 million.
    I'm OK with this, specially if they manage to increase the share of high end phones in the mix.

    Losses: $100 million.
    Units sold:1 million.
    This would be a disaster. The low market share would have a huge negative impact in the product quality, developers would leave the platform. The platform is effectively dead and Microsoft loses the optionality.

    Losses: $200 million.
    Unit sold: 0.5 million.
    Absolute disaster. Microsoft underestimated the sales effort and destroyed the platform.
    JohnIvory likes this.
    10-10-2015 04:18 PM
  4. Paisley Pirate's Avatar
    If they did, Pocket PC would still be a thing.
    I was an early adopter of the Pocket PC back in the day (HP 100LX) I was severely disappointed when MSFT went to CE and had a basic train wreck over graphics on a screen. Then I got an HP CE6 phone - loved that darn thing even though it kept resetting itself if you breathed on it wrong... queue up to today, when I been slumming through a bunch of other hardware over the last few years wishing and waiting for a true Pocket PC to show back up. My little Stream 7 is great, and I can pair it with my BB10 Z10 to get internet (shhh! don't tell Net10/ATT) when I am out in the world... I WISH I could get it all in 1 handheld with the power to do full PC work stuff, the phone covered, and the battery life of the Stream (the battery life of the Z10 - let's not talk about that) BBRY had a good thing running with their Playbook a few years ago, but they keep shooting themselves in the foot with a repeater... I hope to heck MSFT doesn't do the same - as Win10 shows a lot of promise.
    Ian_Superfly likes this.
    10-10-2015 05:31 PM
  5. fdalbor's Avatar
    While there is a lot of ideas floating around lets remember that MOST of the people who will buy smartphones are not going to be willing to put out the money it would cost to buy such a beast. (Surface phone), no matter what it can do it will not appeal to the general public and may become a great nitch product; but it will never be popular except to a small group of people. Plus the phones that the public can affort cannot do what this phone can do so how can it ever be a real success. Android became a sucess because it was cheaper than a Iphone and appealed to what most people wanted to spend on a PHONE and in the end Android covered all the bases. Now if this Surface phone can be had for a price no more than a good Android or Iphone then they might have a chance. But its aint going to happen. Remember when Microsoft said that any Lumia phone that could run 8.1 would get W10. You don't hear that anymore. Wonder why. I will stay with my midrange Windows phone and midrange Android phone and hope that one day this all works out. I just hope it happens before they shovel dirt in my face.
    JohnIvory likes this.
    10-10-2015 06:14 PM
  6. JohnIvory's Avatar
    I was an early adopter of the Pocket PC back in the day (HP 100LX) I was severely disappointed when MSFT went to CE and had a basic train wreck over graphics on a screen. Then I got an HP CE6 phone - loved that darn thing even though it kept resetting itself if you breathed on it wrong... queue up to today, when I been slumming through a bunch of other hardware over the last few years wishing and waiting for a true Pocket PC to show back up. My little Stream 7 is great, and I can pair it with my BB10 Z10 to get internet (shhh! don't tell Net10/ATT) when I am out in the world... I WISH I could get it all in 1 handheld with the power to do full PC work stuff, the phone covered, and the battery life of the Stream (the battery life of the Z10 - let's not talk about that) BBRY had a good thing running with their Playbook a few years ago, but they keep shooting themselves in the foot with a repeater... I hope to heck MSFT doesn't do the same - as Win10 shows a lot of promise.
    I don't deny there're customers like you, I just don't think you make a substantial enough part of the market to justify Microsoft giving you sole focus. What you want is definitely the future; I don't think the current set of consumers will move to Windows Mobile just because of that.
    Paisley Pirate likes this.
    10-11-2015 11:04 AM
  7. ejlee072006's Avatar
    I think att has EXCLUSIVITY RIGHTS with MSFT!! it's the same thing what happen the IPHONE, until then
    Att,tmo are GSM
    SPRINT,VZW are CDMA
    this is not the IPHONE
    even Apple had the same issues before!!!
    We shall see


    VAPE ON
    10-11-2015 12:06 PM
  8. John Steffes's Avatar
    This is Palm/HP webOS all over... Microsoft has a good platform, Reboot, another good Platform, Reboot, another good platform, reboot.. Now Windows 10 Mobile, I want to see it on a tablet.. will then justify it on a phone...

    FYI Palm, has PalmOS, WinCE, webOS... Microsoft had Pocket PC/WinCE 6.x/Windows Mobile 7.x/Windows 8.1, now Windows 10 Mobile...

    Palm/HP died... Microsoft may stick around, but for how long..
    Laura Knotek likes this.
    10-11-2015 07:17 PM
  9. CygnusOrion's Avatar
    This is Palm/HP webOS all over... Microsoft has a good platform, Reboot, another good Platform, Reboot, another good platform, reboot.. Now Windows 10 Mobile, I want to see it on a tablet.. will then justify it on a phone...

    FYI Palm, has PalmOS, WinCE, webOS... Microsoft had Pocket PC/WinCE 6.x/Windows Mobile 7.x/Windows 8.1, now Windows 10 Mobile...

    Palm/HP died... Microsoft may stick around, but for how long..
    MS has $100 billion in cash and $20 billion/year in free cash flow. Mobile is dying on the vine, but MS as a whole is not in any danger bro! Worst case scenario(RIM), they go out of business in 2027.
    10-12-2015 12:10 AM
  10. Win10all's Avatar
    I am in Australia, two years ago, when i was going to sign a 2 year mobile contract with Telstra (Australia's No.1 mobile provider), i looked at one windows phone at one of the biggest Telstra shops. but the sale guy a the Telstra asked me like this ' that is a windows phone, are you sure you want that phone?', i said ' please give me a reason , why not?'. he replied, ' you are the first and only person to pick up that phone.......'. so i am from Andriod background, i have used about 8 google phone, and last week, i finally bought a Lumia 640xl which is my first wm. and i myself is the ONLY one among all friends to use WM. the reason i start to use WM, is simply because i use a windows 10 PC, and i want to use a W10m which is fully compatible with my PC. after upgraded to win10m, the basic phone function is much improved compare to the win7m. however still gaps compare to andriod system. to be honest, the reason wm did not sale well has nothing to do with the Microsoft marketing, or anything, but simply because the wm7 is a very bad system, no body want to use it. most my close friends in Microsft China have 2 mobiles phones. one WM for work, and one andriod or ios for real daily use. If the wm is good enough, why people in MS need to have 2 phones? Now, all my hope is the W10M to get things right - for both the phone function and also the apps.......this is the only chance, and the last chance. i still carry my google phone as a back up today, but i hope when the time Microsoft lunches the w10m, i can drop off my google phone....
    10-12-2015 02:08 AM
  11. Chinocop's Avatar
    Little extreme to say MSFT will go out of business considering that all major corporations and most governments depend on MSFT to run their organizations. If Microsoft were to go bankrupt, business would grind to a halt, and we'd be left in chaos. Just because consumers don't buy their phones, doesn't mean that they're doomed.
    10-12-2015 10:31 AM
  12. xandros9's Avatar
    bugmvz.gif

    "Are you prepared to go all the way with this, Microsoft?"
    10-12-2015 11:13 AM
  13. Steve Adams's Avatar
    Little extreme to say MSFT will go out of business considering that all major corporations and most governments depend on MSFT to run their organizations. If Microsoft were to go bankrupt, business would grind to a halt, and we'd be left in chaos. Just because consumers don't buy their phones, doesn't mean that they're doomed.
    What do you mean? no one uses MS anymore. They all use apple now! ha ha ha!

    So the hokies would have you believe. The lemmings will say even large scale businesses all use osx now and that windows is dead. ha ha.
    10-12-2015 12:34 PM
  14. onlysublime's Avatar
    I'm happy with my HTC One M8 and I'm going to have to go with it longer than I expected.

    I was so excited for the 950XL. But the latest events have soured me. It was one thing to expect me to pay the entire $650+tax upfront. But then to hear that it wasn't compatible with Verizon. You can't keep putting up barriers to your fans. Fans will meet you halfway but you have to go the other half too.

    There's a lot Microsoft can do. It's not entirely out of their control. For example, they could do a payment plan like Apple. Give a way to lock people into your ecosystem the way Apple is doing with the iPhone. People are so high-minded about the freedom of unlocked phones and paying the full cost of the phone. But people prefer not to blow all their money at once. Monthly payments are much more palatable. Monthly plans can work out for Microsoft too. Rather than selling $650 phones which eventually get price reduced, they can sell the $650 phones at a lower monthly cost that never gets reduced. Guaranteed stable income. Isn't that the real reason to go to subscriptions with Office 365? Guaranteed consistent income versus the feast and famine phases of sales.

    People are quick to sound smart by saying a $200 subsidized phone is really $2000 if you include the plan. But you have to pay for a plan regardless of whether you are locked into a carrier. I'd rather pay $200 for a phone than $650 for a phone even if the $650 phone allows me to jump from carrier to carrier. What's the point of jumping from carrier to carrier if the plans and prices are almost the same between carriers? It makes sense for Europe where there are so many small countries in close proximity. But in the US, the freedom doesn't give you any true benefits.

    Anyway, the turn of events means I can focus money on the Surface Pro 4, the Microsoft Band 2, and the rapidly incoming Halo Xbox One. So excited!
    Laura Knotek likes this.
    10-13-2015 01:33 AM
  15. mariusmuntean's Avatar
    My gut feeling says W10M will be a huge success in few yrs.
    Same guys like you said this before with WP7, and again with WP8. None of those versions were able to bring more than 3% market share and none have managed to bring devs to build and actually support the platform.
    I remember back in 2011, was almost summer and I decided to pick a HTC Trophy 7 just to see how WP7 was. Bad mistake! no turn by turn GPS software available, no good games, missing apps, no USSD support, terrible email client, horrible IE performance, no separate volume controls for apps,tones etc. Was the worst experience ever. Returned it within the 2 weeks of purchase and bought a Xperia X10 on Android. So the start was bad for MS, WP7 was bad from the start comparing with the ongoing competition at that time.
    Last edited by mariusmuntean; 10-13-2015 at 02:10 AM.
    10-13-2015 01:59 AM
  16. Joshwin's Avatar
    But W10M is not WP7/WP8 is it?
    libra89 likes this.
    10-13-2015 07:57 AM
  17. elindalyne's Avatar
    People are quick to sound smart by saying a $200 subsidized phone is really $2000 if you include the plan. But you have to pay for a plan regardless of whether you are locked into a carrier. I'd rather pay $200 for a phone than $650 for a phone even if the $650 phone allows me to jump from carrier to carrier. What's the point of jumping from carrier to carrier if the plans and prices are almost the same between carriers? It makes sense for Europe where there are so many small countries in close proximity. But in the US, the freedom doesn't give you any true benefits.
    Uh.. In the past a comparable plan from ATT/VZW/Sprint would have been over double the cost of comparable prepaid plans. The phone subsidy definitely was not worth it. Prices may have dropped since then, but for the most part you will still pay less overall for a prepaid plan + phone then a contract with a subsidy....
    libra89, barnyr, 920Walker and 1 others like this.
    10-13-2015 08:35 AM
  18. JohnIvory's Avatar
    I'm happy with my HTC One M8 and I'm going to have to go with it longer than I expected.

    I was so excited for the 950XL. But the latest events have soured me. It was one thing to expect me to pay the entire $650+tax upfront. But then to hear that it wasn't compatible with Verizon. You can't keep putting up barriers to your fans. Fans will meet you halfway but you have to go the other half too.

    There's a lot Microsoft can do. It's not entirely out of their control. For example, they could do a payment plan like Apple. Give a way to lock people into your ecosystem the way Apple is doing with the iPhone. People are so high-minded about the freedom of unlocked phones and paying the full cost of the phone. But people prefer not to blow all their money at once. Monthly payments are much more palatable. Monthly plans can work out for Microsoft too. Rather than selling $650 phones which eventually get price reduced, they can sell the $650 phones at a lower monthly cost that never gets reduced. Guaranteed stable income. Isn't that the real reason to go to subscriptions with Office 365? Guaranteed consistent income versus the feast and famine phases of sales.
    You're right, there is a lot Microsoft can do, and most people have already suggested an Apple like payment plan. What you guys fail to realise is the difference in how Apple views the iPhone and Microsoft views Windows Phone. The iPhone is Apple's bread and butter. It is the reason they are the richest company in the world. They would doing anything to keep their dominance. Their payment plan basically amounts to taking low interest loans out for each iPhone and passing the cost gradually to the consumer. That probably took a while to set up.
    With Microsoft however, there simply aren't enough people trying to buy Windows Phones for them to justify wasting that kind of effort on financing. That's what I mean in my post. If there was a good chance that financing would finally move the needle, Microsoft would have done it. But we've had phones subsidised by carriers since 2010, and we're still at 3%. It would be foolish to waste any more money on this, even for the fans.


    Anyway, the turn of events means I can focus money on the Surface Pro 4, the Microsoft Band 2, and the rapidly incoming Halo Xbox One. So excited!
    This right here is exactly what Microsoft is betting on. That even if you don't buy a Windows Phone, there is enough value in all of their other products that they keep you around as a customer. And who knows, maybe someday integration between mobile and desktop would be so tight it will start shifting the market back in their favour.
    10-13-2015 10:16 AM
  19. donkiluminate's Avatar
    As much as I love WM I think it's going to whither and die on the vine. If MS really wanted to they could make something of it but they just don't have the will to do it. Not to disparage Gabe Aul and his team but it seams like upper management has given up on the platform and are only keeping WM alive as to not burn any bridges. WM is lacking a true platform champion to shepherd the platform.

    It seems to me WM's problems really took a turn for the worse when Elop came on board.
    10-13-2015 10:26 AM
  20. onlysublime's Avatar
    Uh.. In the past a comparable plan from ATT/VZW/Sprint would have been over double the cost of comparable prepaid plans. The phone subsidy definitely was not worth it. Prices may have dropped since then, but for the most part you will still pay less overall for a prepaid plan + phone then a contract with a subsidy....
    show me how a prepaid plan + phone is cheaper on a month to month basis. when owning a flagship phone
    10-15-2015 12:04 AM
  21. onlysublime's Avatar
    With Microsoft however, there simply aren't enough people trying to buy Windows Phones for them to justify wasting that kind of effort on financing. That's what I mean in my post. If there was a good chance that financing would finally move the needle, Microsoft would have done it. But we've had phones subsidised by carriers since 2010, and we're still at 3%. It would be foolish to waste any more money on this, even for the fans.
    It's not about "moving the needle". It's about keeping what few fans you have left. Financing would not be hard or expensive especially if what you say is true (that no one would take advantage of it and that there would be no uptake of the option).

    Microsoft has effectively turned Windows Mobile into Blackberry. The only people still buying Blackberry at full price are Crackberry fans. Blackberry has essentially told their fans that if they want their phones, go buy it at regular pricing. They've abandoned trying to sell Blackberry to regular people. Just keep milking the fans you have left.

    If Microsoft has given up on trying to make their phones easy to purchase, then just give up entirely.

    The only reasoning I see with the course of action they have made is these Nokia designs were so far along and fans were so itching for any kind of flagships, that they had to release these phones or else have everyone give up on the platform. But their marketing is so half-hearted. Leaving out the biggest carrier out there?

    I think any Surface phones in incubation will get the full marketing push by Microsoft. I bet in 6 months, there'll be a Surface phone and it will be carried by multiple carriers. It's as if Microsoft is thinking, "the 950 and 950 XL won't sell. Why put a lot of effort into them? Let's just wait for the Surface phones to push hard." And I think a big part of the reasoning has to be the unfortunate timing of Windows 10 Mobile. It's coming in so hot and heavy. There's no fast stable build. It's almost an alpha. The idea that 950 and 950XL will get a preview build OS is crazy. By the time Surface phones are ready, the OS will be mature and stable and all that we expect Windows Mobile to be. This is when I think Microsoft will get back in the game.
    libra89 likes this.
    10-15-2015 02:18 AM
  22. elindalyne's Avatar
    show me how a prepaid plan + phone is cheaper on a month to month basis. when owning a flagship phone
    Verizon 6GB Plan - $60/month + $20 line fee + $27.08/month - Total cost - $2569.92
    ATT 5GB Plan - $50/month + 40/month for a new phone - Total cost $2160
    TMobile BYOD Unlimited Plan w/7GB of tethering - $80/month + $649 phone - Total cost $2569
    TMobile BYOD 5GB plan - $70/month + $649 phone - $2329
    Straight Talk 5 GB Plan - $45/month - $1080 + $649 phone - Total cost $1729

    You also need to remember, these plans have just changed in the last year. Prior to this year, you'd be paying even more for the ATT/VZW plans.
    10-15-2015 08:46 AM
  23. barnyr's Avatar
    show me how a prepaid plan + phone is cheaper on a month to month basis. when owning a flagship phone
    On ATT, if you buy iPhone 6s+ on contract you pay $300 upfront plus an extra $25 per month for 24 months for total of $900. Off contract you pay $750.
    10-15-2015 11:38 AM
  24. JohnIvory's Avatar
    Financing would not be hard or expensive especially if what you say is true (that no one would take advantage of it and that there would be no uptake of the option).
    It's not just about the money, it's about the time involved to set such things up with a financial institution, to negotiate interest rates and prices, etc. It's a lot of effort that required that Microsoft would have been looking into this probably late last year, and considering all the stuff currently going on in the company (Nokia layoffs, Windows 10 development, getting the 950s out of the gate), it is completely not surprising that financing was not a top priority. Like I said, for Apple the iPhone is their bread and butter. For Microsoft Windows Phone so far has been a money pit

    It's not about "moving the needle". It's about keeping what few fans you have left.
    This is where we disagree. I'm not saying Microsoft shouldn't try to keep its fans satisfied. I'm saying Microsoft shouldn't continue throwing away money when the only reward is a few satisfied fans. It's not sound business. Nadella, and Balmer before him, has a board to answer to. They took a massive write-down on the Nokia purchase. How on earth would he justify financing loans on the next batch of phones so that he can appease US customers, the same customers that have brought Windows Mobile the lowest marketshare in all the regions it has been sold? At some point you guys have to realise that Microsoft doesn't exist just for you.

    Microsoft has effectively turned Windows Mobile into Blackberry. The only people still buying Blackberry at full price are Crackberry fans. Blackberry has essentially told their fans that if they want their phones, go buy it at regular pricing. They've abandoned trying to sell Blackberry to regular people. Just keep milking the fans you have left.
    Yes, because for both Windows Phone and Blackberry the only people that have shown any interest in buying their phones (except for the extreme affordable low end in Windows Phone's case) are the fans. The difference is that Microsoft has their 1-OS strategy to drive sales, and tight integration between mobile and desktop could yet be a good selling point for their mobile business. It would be foolish for them to stop developing a mobile OS. What's the point of universal apps if they're only going to run on the desktop? But it would also be foolish of them to continue wasting billions every quarter on a product that a small part of the market wants.

    Leaving out the biggest carrier out there?
    Verizon has been a ****** to Microsoft. When the elephants fight it is the grass that suffers and in this case the fans are suffering. Sorry to all those Windows Phone fans on Verizon, but I honestly feel that this was the best decision for both Microsoft and Verizon. Microsoft gets more control over their OS; Verizon doesn't have to keep stocking Windows Phones it doesn't intend to push/sell.

    I think any Surface phones in incubation will get the full marketing push by Microsoft. I bet in 6 months, there'll be a Surface phone and it will be carried by multiple carriers. It's as if Microsoft is thinking, "the 950 and 950 XL won't sell. Why put a lot of effort into them? Let's just wait for the Surface phones to push hard." And I think a big part of the reasoning has to be the unfortunate timing of Windows 10 Mobile. It's coming in so hot and heavy. There's no fast stable build. It's almost an alpha. The idea that 950 and 950XL will get a preview build OS is crazy. By the time Surface phones are ready, the OS will be mature and stable and all that we expect Windows Mobile to be. This is when I think Microsoft will get back in the game.
    They say hope springs eternal, and there is no better example of this than Windows Phone fans. I've already written about how sceptic I am on this Surface Phone changing anything for the mobile division. x86-like apps on the phone? The 2000s proved that was a failing strategy. All of you pinning your hopes on the Surface Phone being some kind of revolution, good luck. I will be buying a 950/XL and enjoying what I have today.
    10-15-2015 12:14 PM
  25. onlysublime's Avatar
    On ATT, if you buy iPhone 6s+ on contract you pay $300 upfront plus an extra $25 per month for 24 months for total of $900. Off contract you pay $750.
    again, I ask you. On a monthly basis, show me an off-contract situation that is cheaper than a contract for a high-end phone. again, you're calculating total cost at the end of a contract instead of monthly cost. we're talking everything. phone and service. there is no reason to go off-contract unless you're just looking at how much you're paying total over 2 years.

    There's a reason why we pay for a car over the months rather than paying the car upfront. Sure, paying a car upfront in total is cheaper than paying over 3 years. But what a waste of money that can be used for investment and other expenditures. Even the ultra rich negotiate a $300/month car rather than pay the full price upfront.

    Can you people not fathom monthly payments versus payments over the life of a contract?

    Microsoft is asking me to pay over $700 upfront. And they're asking me to switch carriers. Inferior carriers that drop service all the time. In my business, I actually make phone calls.
    10-16-2015 12:36 AM
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