Microsoft Mobile - "Unsustainable"

[sevoman]

Satya Nadella - made a recent statement during an interview basally stating that their mobile/phone division market share is unsustainable. This is a terrible thing for a CEO to say in public. To go further, he hinted (as he has done before) that MS's future is in "services", presumably not devices.

He was referring to the latest stats that shows Window's mobile market share at 1.7% down almost 50% from last year.

After stating that it's unsustainable he went on to say:

"I think we do ourselves a disservice if we measure our success by just looking at: What’s the market share of HoloLens? What’s the market share of Xbox? What’s the market share of PCs? What’s the market share of our phones?"

"If you think of this more like a graph, these [devices] are all nodes. Sometimes the user will use all of these devices … sometimes they’ll use only one or two of our devices and some other platforms — so be it. But we want to make sure that we are completing the experience across all of these devices."

--- It seems that he is taking a stance akin to ... we are bigger and better and more solemn than just trying to sell as many phones as we can. As an average consumer, I don't care if a company is making great strides in tech that will be mainstream 10 years from now. I care about my CURRENT devices and the choices I have to make in purchases in the next year or two. It seems that MS is always in 'beta' and always promising something around the corner. They put out a phone with nice hardware but the software is buggy and needs constant updates (Lumia 950's). If you remain on mobile 8.1 you're missing many features of mobile 10.0 (I have been using windows 10 on pc and mobile as an insider preview). You can't compare 8.1 to 10.. but you are forced to decide between features and stability. Nothing seems to be polished. Microsoft - Under construction.

The reason this sucks is that more so today than ever, consumers are being cornered into buying into an ecosystem. Phones, desktops, TV box, Movies, Music, laptops, tablets. If a company has one HUGE weakness in that chain then it takes them out of the running. As of now, for the average consumer MS's only polished products are a decent desktop operating system, a suite of office tools, and a modern cloud storage solution.

Personally, I have an aging desktop computer and need to upgrade soon. I'm not going to buy a DELL with fan noise and bloatware galore.. they also offer little to no SSD options. The est of the OEM offerings are just temporary junk boxes. I have a Lumia 950 but can't stand to use it as a daily driver and always revert to putting my sim in my trusty iphone 6. My set top box is a roku, not going to get an xbox to stream MS purchased video content.

It seems that Satya is correct in that MS cannot compete in mobile or in general, the device market. They are to become a Google type company in that they offer cloud storage and software. No streaming services to be noted and if they did, they already have too much competition. These uber cheap lumia phones being released in other countries are not going to make MS any closer to getting developers to join the cause.

It's really frustrating and I see MS going the way of Blackberry and caving in to becoming more of an enterprise solution than mainstream OEM.

One thing is for sure.. if they really did have hope, their CEO would not say such things in an interview. Because of that statement, I have lost trust in teh direction MS is going... they are all over the place and doing nothing right. My Lumia 950 (and 635 and 640) are going on craigslist. I was thinking of getting a SP4 with keyboard, but I think I'm going to look elsewhere for a mobile computing platform. I'll pay a few hundred extra for peace of mind and consistency. As far as my desktop purchase which I will be doing this year, it's not going to be a windows all in one. That is for sure.

 

[angusdegraosta]

I think Windows 10 Mobile is going to begin seeing some growth.

 

[anon(6078578)]

I think Windows 10 Mobile is going to begin seeing some growth.

I think you're right. After all it's easy for the market share to increase when it's finally released to existing Windows Phone users lol

The trick is, once all the existing windows phone users have finally installed Window 10 Mobile, or bought a 950/950 XL, then we'll need to come back to that statement

 

[anon(6078578)]

The problem with him just admitting the current market share is unsustainable is that he basically just sent the message that if it continues to fall, then Windows Phone will be dropped. Of course how quickly this will happen is anyone's guess. Didn't he originally say that they weren't going to focus on market share? In the end of course he is only saying what I would've expected in that market share ultimately does matter.

 

[sevoman]

The problem with him just admitting the current market share is unsustainable is that he basically just sent the message that if it continues to fall, then Windows Phone will be dropped. Of course how quickly this will happen is anyone's guess. Didn't he originally say that they weren't going to focus on market share? In the end of course he is only saying what I would've expected in that market share ultimately does matter.

Yes, market share matters. I think he was just trying to tout there other offerings and areas of success (Windows, xbox). As far as Hololens goes, it really is something that the average consumer does not think about when making a decision in which phone or computer to buy. My guess is that by the end of 2016 MS will discontinue their phone platform/hardware. It certainly seems to be what he is saying. Question is what happens to the dual desktop/mobile modes that they have now injected into Windows 10? If the mobile share fails then they have an OS full of unnecessary features. Two email apps, two system preferences, two calendar apps....an entire mobile store with sub-par apps... they will have to revamp windows again. Every time they do this they lose customers. There is something to be said about consistency that garners loyalty. I don't particularly like Apple, but they are consistent and don't make giant changes to their core products every other year.

We shall see...

 

[anon(5383410)]

I don't see anything problematic about admitting that you'll abandon a product if it continues to perform poorly. You're just saying what everyone else already knows. As great a product as Surface is, had it not taken off they would've dumped it too.

 

[sevoman]

I don't see anything problematic about admitting that you'll abandon a product if it continues to perform poorly. You're just saying what everyone else already knows. As great a product as Surface is, had it not taken off they would've dumped it too.

Point being, you don't want the CEO saying this before they actually decide to.. and that's why I think they have already made their decision and he's easing the idea to the media/public. These decisions are made far in advance. End of 2016... windows phone will be discontinued. That's my bet.

 

[colinkiama]

Point being, you don't want the CEO saying this before they actually decide to.. and that's why I think they have already made their decision and he's easing the idea to the media/public. These decisions are made far in advance. End of 2016... windows phone will be discontinued. That's my bet.

If someone asks you whether having 1.7% of market share is unsustainable what are you supposed to say? No?

 

[sevoman]

If someone asks you whether having 1.7% of market share is unsustainable what are you supposed to say? No?

I understand what you are saying... but they DID NOT ask him if 1.7% is 'sustainable'. They asked for his comment on the new stats showing they are at 1.7% share. There are many replies he could have given, but to just say it's unsustainable tells the public they will be throwing in the towel soon.

 

[anon(6078578)]

If someone asks you whether having 1.7% of market share is unsustainable what are you supposed to say? No?

No you work around it like a Politician, as he did before when he said market share wasn't important. This is classic Microsoft though, so is to be expected

 

[Captain_Eric]

Microsoft did a major retrenchment with the Windows phone. They wrote off $7 billion for Nokia, announced vast product line cut to what? six devices, the fired Elop, etc. A big retrenchment. And they started adding their core apps, in high quality form, Office, OneDrive, etc. on iphone and Android, apparently (and correctly, in my view) to protect those key products.

I think he's saying, when he talks about the graph, that these core products must participate in mobile, even if it's not Microsoft Phones. (In that sense, the low market share is not sustainable to deliver on those Office, etc. products without Android and iPhone.) They were not going to cede Office replacements to Android and Apple. To me, given the 1.7%, it was smart.

Now did he mean Microsoft will exit mobile phones? Time will tell. My guess, he's not thrown in the towel yet.

As for whether to buy an Surface Pro 4? Do it! Why not? That is in Microsoft's strength: Windows, Office, plus an exceptional device.

 

[sevoman]

Microsoft did a major retrenchment with the Windows phone. They wrote off $7 billion for Nokia, announced vast product line cut to what? six devices, the fired Elop, etc. A big retrenchment. And they started adding their core apps, in high quality form, Office, OneDrive, etc. on iphone and Android, apparently (and correctly, in my view) to protect those key products.

I think he's saying, when he talks about the graph, that these core products must participate in mobile, even if it's not Microsoft Phones. (In that sense, the low market share is not sustainable to deliver on those Office, etc. products without Android and iPhone.) They were not going to cede Office replacements to Android and Apple. To me, given the 1.7%, it was smart.

Now did he mean Microsoft will exit mobile phones? Time will tell. My guess, he's not thrown in the towel yet.

As for whether to buy an Surface Pro 4? Do it! Why not? That is in Microsoft's strength: Windows, Office, plus an exceptional device.

I know what you mean.. but still that statement was not necessary. As someone said above, he could have been more political about it. You don't want you're captain saying out loud 'the holes in our ship are unsustainable'. lol I'm about offload some of my Lumias. Look, don't get me wrong, I love MS and windows and have been an avid follower and tester. I've been giving feedback for more than a year now. But sometimes you just have to see things for what they are! As I type, my lumia is resetting in prep to sell...

 

[Jazmac]

Sounds like the OP is a glass half empty kind of guy. Personally, I didn't read nearly as much gloom into his unsustainable comment as you did. Sounds more like MS realizes that it has to hunker down and get more research and development out of Microsoft if it intends to remain a leader in technology. With Windows 10, it looks to me they are putting things in motion. But its going to take a strong backbone and those with the commitment to the platform and its future to get in the game. That is what I heard him say.

BTW, lease don't take my comments as some feeble attempt to convince you to move against your conscience. Its not. Its absolutely not. You are like many others convinced all of this is a waste of time. Just do you.

 

[fdalbor]

I feel much the same. I just purchased a high/mid-range Android phone to be my main mobile device. I will however be keeping my excellent 640 so i can keep up with windows mobile. I dont need a high end flagship phone that costs 550$ plus and the only high/mid-range phone Microsoft has is the way overpriced/under powered 830. But i am beginning to wonder if my 640 will ever see W10. A finished W10, not some beta bull.

 

[Brian McMahon]

I didn't take Satya's comment as a cast iron guarantee to drop Windows Mobile but yes he could have worded is differently or elaborated on what he was prepared to do to reverse the trend. There are plenty things MS can do to increase the market share now that the 950 and xl have launched like advertising, never seen an advert for the 950 or xl over here, saying that haven't seen any for the band 2 or surface pro 4 but didn't stop me being informed about them and purchasing them.

Sure there have been some chinks in the armour with a bit of buggy software, yes it should have been fixed before the phones launched but the new update seems to have fixed the issues. Must admit my 950 xl in the uk since launch has been a dream to use, no issues whatsoever.

I think we're taking Satya's comments out of context as who knows what he meant truly. There's a lot they can do to reverse the trend, lets be honest though these are the first flagship phones launched with windows mobile for more than 18 months. They are bound to have lost some traction in the market but only Satya knows what plans he can put in place to stop the decline. Personally I wouldn't read too much into it at the moment and i'm sure there are others like me who will enjoy their MS devices and concentrate on what is important in life.

Decide for yourself what you must do to suit your needs though, if W10 doesn't work for your then find something that does and good luck with what you decide, there is plenty choice out there so no matter which platform you go to you can make it your own.

 

[kristalsoldier]

Can I have your 950 then? Since you won't be using it?

 

[colinkiama]

I understand what you are saying... but they DID NOT ask him if 1.7% is 'sustainable'. They asked for his comment on the new stats showing they are at 1.7% share. There are many replies he could have given, but to just say it's unsustainable tells the public they will be throwing in the towel soon.

Interviewer: "I think I saw in a recent article that microsoft has 1.7% of smartphone market share which doesn't SEEM sustainable"
Satya: "Yup"

 

[Ryujingt3]

I am still waiting for the 950 and 950XL to reach Thailand and I was hesitant to buy one (nearly got a Note 5 today) but I will be sticking with Windows Phone because that is the mobile OS I actually enjoy using. iPhone, Android and BlackBerry just feel so antiseptic to me, devoid of any real feeling or warmth when you use it. Most people won't understand what I am trying to say but Windows Phone is the only mobile OS I am happy with, apps or no apps.

 

[Captain_Eric]

Interviewer: "I think I saw in a recent article that microsoft has 1.7% of smartphone market share which doesn't SEEM sustainable"
Satya: "Yup"

Thanks for the transcript. Helpful. He could have meant, "Yup, our market share is reported as 1.7%."

But isn't it obvious that even at 3%, it's not good? To me, there is probably no new news here.

 

[KimRM]

Thanks for the transcript. Helpful. He could have meant, "Yup, our market share is reported is 1.7%."

But isn't it obvious that even at 3%, it's not good? To me, there is probably no new news here.

3% is not much, but it would be sustainable. Apple has about that with their Macs. We don't see them pulling the plug on Macs.