Why doesn't someone at MS just refute all the "W10M is Dead" claims?

[WillysJeepMan]

If W10M was just another product like the Kin, which had absolutely no strategic relevancy, then you might have a point. W10M isn't just another product though, so you don't.

A notable part of W10M is developed as part of the larger W10, so there isn't a lot of pressure to drop it. More importantly, W10M can't be removed from MS' OS portfolio without invalidating their entire OS strategy, which MS has been working towards for over a decade. MS isn't going to do that, at least not yet. Nadella just recently went on record saying that MS plans to give W10M and the UWP a few years to prove themselves and I don't think he was lying about that.

Last but not least, project inertia can keep projects going, particularly the smaller ones, but it doesn't keep projects going which are deemed unnecessary, where the development costs run into the hundreds of millions of dollars annually.

It DOES keep a project going when there are legal and financial obligations to do so. Perhaps that is technically NOT project inertia, but there are other factors in play beyond commercial viability. That is my point.

IMO (and in the opinion of many mobile app developers), MS has invalidated their entire mobile OS strategy by "rebooting" it a few times over the past 15 years. People seem to forget that Microsoft was dominant in mobile OSes back then... maybe even more than Apple is today with iOS. Microsoft has not recovered from that... it has been a steady downward decline.

Are fans of W10M looking at Microsoft as the scrappy underdog when it is more accurate to view Microsoft as the great Empire that is a shadow of their former self? Microsoft has burned the bridges of trust in the mobile OS arena with developers and customers.

Yes, I'm still calling BS.

Since we're talking bout predictions, I guess there isn't much else to say except we'll see. If W10M is still regularly updated and evolving a year from now, then I'll have been right.

If not, I'll gladly concede to you and everyone else here. We'll see...

No worries. Historically (as in going all the way back to the Casio Cassiopeia days for mobile OS, and beyond) I've been the odd man out in my view... unconventional, but far more often correct than not... due primarily to my work for IBM and with Microsoft.

I'm confident enough in my view of the landscape to NOT invest money in the W10M arena.

 

[a5cent]

No worries. Historically (as in going all the way back to the Casio Cassiopeia days for mobile OS, and beyond) I've been the odd man out in my view... unconventional, but far more often correct than not... due primarily to my work for IBM and with Microsoft.

I'm confident enough in my view of the landscape to NOT invest money in the W10M arena.

In that case you're breaking with tradition here, as you share the mainstream view whereas I very much represent the minority view. ;-)

Just to be clear... I'm not investing anything in W10M either. At least not until MS finally delivers something that is revolutionary rather than something that with each iteration just sheds more of its differentiators and becomes a better copy of the competition.

W10M is only formally dead when MS ceases to spend large amounts of money on W10M development, because as long as that occurs there's always a chance that something could change.

What I'm disputing is the claim that W10M's formal death is close at hand. That's all I'm disputing. No more and no less. I'm not saying W10M will become a success anytime soon. Money will continue to flow to OS developers, so it's not dead, but if that can reverse W10M's unpopularity is a different matter.

 

[Bay 13]

Just as dead as BlackBerry? Lol .

Blackberry is not dead. They will survive as a niche device maker that serves the Enterprise market (Some Governments and Businesses) and a small loyal batch of consumers. They are making money on software and growing. John Chen has done a great job in his short time at Blackberry. They have announced two new Android phones within the next 6-18 months. The Blackberry Priv did not sale as well as they liked due to High Price tag and no marketing. I have a unlocked Priv with Android running the Marshmallow O.S. and it is running great with much improved battery life and all the apps I will ever need.

BB is moving in the right direction. If M.S is going to keep making devices it would be wise to make a statement. Dead people do not respond. Blackberry is at least talking...

 

[SL2]

Gartner says 0.7 %, netmarketshare says something else:

While I don't believe that April fluke for a second, I just want to point out that all we're hearing is 1000 echoes all coming from one report.
Is WM dead? In some sense, maybe, I don't know. Maybe it's never been alive, depending on who you're asking. Maybe Gartner is more reliable, maybe not.
My point is that maybe we need a second opinion, and I also want to say that even though it's a drastical drop in points it was still a small share to begin with. It's not comparable with dropping from 25 to 7 % if you know what I mean..

But Microsoft did not sell the cooling technology or other innovations in the 950 and 950XL. Those will be needed for the forthcoming Surface phone, which will run exactly the same OS and software as the Surface Pro 4.

Except that there is no matching x86 CPU for this job AFAIK, otherwise the HP Elite x3 would have it because it's primarily aimed at business users, i.e those who would benefit the most of a x86 CPU.

 

[ArtificiallyYours]

I never pretended Microsoft's situation was ever good.

I never jerked the monkey to less competition, like so many cheap shot hipsters do.

EDIT: for those cheering on the "New Coke" Nokia, please understand how they got from there to here. Not MS, but literally underestimating the Android platform, saying it won't ever take off. Using reputation to justify their approach to MeeGo, glorified Feature Phones, etc.

Irony; they are selling by name only at this point.

 

[Johnny Tremaine]

If Windows phone isn't dead yet, it's certainly coughing up blood.

Personally, I had to buy a refurbished Icon off amazon a couple of months back because my carrier, Verizon, has already decided windows phone is dead and doesn't offer anything better than a refurbished two year old flagship.

My family thinks of me as a phone hobbiest. In order to get a new phone, I had to buy a used phone, then upgrade it to 8.1, then denim, then install the insider app to take updates so i could run windows 10, then deal with a bug in .264 that rendered my phone a hot glowing blob with a half hour battery life until the last update. And I can never get Redstone, so I will be left behind again, this time with nowhere to go. Who would leave another platform for that experience?

Windows phone is Latin. You can still learn Latin, but there's really no one to talk to, so the network effect is really limited.

It's that network effect, or more precisely the lack thereof, that is causing problems for windows phone. Think of a healthy network effect as oxygen. As market share falls, the oxygen gets scarce and it's harder to breathe. Apps suffocate, and key apps die off all together. This lowers market share further, and more apps die off. It's a feedback loop.

I personally came to windows phone because I was sick of being Google's product and Apple was too controlling. Microsoft had the best privacy policy, and windows phone 8.1 was about to launch and promised big things. The only reason I am here today us because I was already here.

Ask yourself, who in their right mind is leaving another platform to come to windows 10 mobile today? Certainly no one on Verizon, because Verizon doesn't even carry a current model, let alone offer a flagship. Anyone under 30 would never, because none of their apps would be available, or if they were would be undependable or lack major functionality. For them Microsoft itself lacks the cool factor, and forget about telling them about using web pages when what they know are apps. It just doesn't happen.

So yeah, dead. All that's left are a dwindling number of people who were already here. That's becoming true even in emerging markets like India where Microsoft is dumping phones.

So dead. Very dead.

As if you were transcribing my thoughts, agree with all of it.

In addition, due to likely legal and contractual obligation reasons, Microsoft can't really ever explicitly state 'Windows phones are dead. That's it, we're shutting her down, boys. It's been real.'
They'd pretty quickly get sued by any OEM or network partners that still had products available out on the market, which would get harmed.

As in most matters, (corporate) actions speak louder than words though.

 

[fdalbor]

The only way you would see an OEM produce a windows phone is if had a Android phone and they didnt have to much of anything to put windows on it. Otherwise forget it. Microsoft has killed any trust OEM's had in them

 

[DavidinCT]

I agree with that. I think it's okay to say that from a consumer's point of view, W10M is almost dead. To claim that it is dead is BS however. Being dead is an irreversible state. Once something is dead it stays that way.

What crystal ball are people here using that reveals to them that W10M will never recover an iota of market share, not even after being relaunched under a different brand name and when running on devices which nobody would call a smartphone?

Don't get me wrong. I'm not predicting a huge success for W10M either. I'm not predicting anything. Those who claim W10M is dead are predicting something however. It's just that nobody here has a good enough crystal ball to believably make that prediction. That's why it's BS. The only people who can definitively and irreversibly carry WM to its grave are MS.

It's slightly ironic that WM is receiving updates faster than ever before in its six year existence, and now is the time when some call it dead. In a way it could be seen as being the exact opposite. In a way it's never been more alive. It's also never been more unpopular however, but that's not the same as being dead.

I guess you have to define in a consumer electronics area what "DEAD" means. Just like any electronic device, once the support slows to almost a stop, it still will work. Crap, look at my Atari 2600, it still works and still plays games but, in a consumer thought, it is dead.

Back in Windows Phone 7 days, it was alive and well for the most part, Microsoft was doing everything (they THOUGHT) they could to promote it. They have clearly said they are not focusing on mobile and in the last few months, they have shown that very clear. Sure it is being Deved, they are still upgrading (well fixing the million or so bugs in W10m) but, new features ? New support paths ? How about the YEAR BY YEAR promised Tap to pay option ? Sure the OS will work but, if you want any addons, apps, or 3rd party products like watches and other hardware, don't count on support from Microsoft.

For every 1 app that come to Windows phone, 5-7 apps go away. Not moving forward, in fact with the lowering market share a lot of devs are pulling out by the day. Again, it's been very clear if you watch this site and read Microsoft based news.

WILL Win Phone return and be in the market again ? Maybe, and why I said that is Microsoft's CLEAR approach. This is a force UMP apps, is what they hope will take off... Microsoft sits on the sidelines with WP, let's the market grow with UMP apps, after a while go in for a last gusto with Windows Phone (WP or W10m, same deal).

Dead honest here, In my eyes, no new feature set, no promotion, losing apps by the day when there is aready a lack of apps in a lot of areas, TO ME, it is dead....

I do love the OS, I really do but, no WAY would I buy a new Windows Phone or Windows 10 Moble device till Microsoft SHOWS there is a support path for the long term and it's not there anyway you look at it.. Again they have clearly said that.

Sigh.....

 

[Scotty_doesknow]

Ask yourself if windows mobile was ever really alive? The answer is yes. When pocket pc was the ruler of smartphones the platform was stable & didn't switch every other year. With that said, the alive/dead argument is pure nonsense. If you like the platform then you use it, & if not don't.

 

[fdalbor]

Microsoft, by their actions and lack of support is the only ones responsible for the condition of their OS. Dead or not, i will never buy another phone from them. The one 640 i kept will probably never see the light of day again as i doubt they will ever push out W10 for it. Coming soon has come and gone. But i still have my avatar.

 

[DavidinCT]

Ask yourself if windows mobile was ever really alive? The answer is yes. When pocket pc was the ruler of smartphones the platform was stable & didn't switch every other year. With that said, the alive/dead argument is pure nonsense. If you like the platform then you use it, & if not don't.

PocketPC was never a solid ruler of the PDA/Smartphone market. They were always on the side. Blackberry was the big guns and Sure MS had a lot larger marketshare then but, the smartphone market was nothing really, mainly business people and hobbiests.

Stable ? Once you got the OEM's front end on them, they sucked and they were very slow, never mind the front end always crashed (HTC Sense anyone ?). Like Android, you needed custom roms to clean off all the OEM stuff, to make it usefull. Windows Mobile 6.1 and 6.5 were SOLID OS's once you got all the OEM crap out..

Sure MS had a lot bigger marketshare back then, tons of cabs (apps were in cab format) and a good option of apps and games back then. I came from a HPC 1.0 and every version upto W10m.....

 

[Sheamartin]

I think people misunderstand what Microsoft is up to. Microsoft just sold the Nokia brand to the people who make Apple's iPhone, and promised to support Windows Phone 10. In buying and selling Nokia, at a loss of nearly $7 billion, Microsoft got just what it needed. Sufficient technology to design, produce and market a high end liquid cooled phone. Having what they wanted, Lumia was dead weight. So, Microsoft sold the Nokia stuff. But Microsoft did not sell the cooling technology or other innovations in the 950 and 950XL. Those will be needed for the forthcoming Surface phone, which will run exactly the same OS and software as the Surface Pro 4. The app shortage obstacle will be gone, and Microsoft will be all alone with a phone that doesn't just look like the desktop, but can function like it. No NETFLIX app-use the browser. Same for pretty much everything else. Meanwhile, Apple's leading OPM manufacturer is busily competing with Apple. Microsoft has made lots of errors in mobile. This isn't one.

I sure hope you're right. I love my Icon and the apps do seem to be coming. I think once you have a variety of sizes (desktop, laptop, tablet, phone) to connect to the same info, everyone will flood in. But it is disappointing that MS doesn't give a little more hype to the phones. They seem to be the red headed step child at this point.

 

[Great deal]

I do agree that a strong reason for buying Nokia was to get thier hands on the IP portfolio (MS is very strong in the IP ownership arena) coupled with the low price of Nokia and the fear of a rival purchasing them and having Elop (an inside MS man) at the helm certainly gave them insights we mere mortals can only speculate at. Lets look at the alternative.....Say MS didnt buy Nokia, what ramifications would have happened. Nokia was a sinking ship and would have been snapped up by someone else. Probably not Apple, more likely Google or another and stripped of its assets, the result of lay offs would be the same though. However MS would be 7 Billion richer (not much in the mobile space nowadays) and without the IP, without understanding the IP and what parts MS actually use in future phones we will never truly understand the value trade off. Safe to say that over the long run they could make up thae money through licensing agreements as im sure Nokia have a LOT of patents.

Leaving the human aspect of it (people would have lost thier jobs regardless IMO) aside for a moment I think MS made the right move. I think we all expected something amazing, perhaps the expectation was misplaced and any othe large purchaser would be in the same situation. Well Dones done and looking forward the Surface Brand without the shackles or ghosts of a dead Nokia are what MS will push forwards with. Just like iPhone and Nexus MS will have the Surface. Alongside that they have the Onecore (amazing feat tbh) for everyone else to build devices and services on. All in all MS are in a very VERY strong position in the market with what they have done with the OS, the mobile aspect will fall into place in time, unfortunately that time is not right now and IMO wont happen for another 12 months at least.

 

[TennisGuy45]

Microsoft Rep "Windows Mobile is dead, cannot wait"

So a Microsoft rep came to visit us the other day and during his visit he made the comment he cannot wait to get rid of his Windows phone and get an iPhone.

He then proceeded to tell us that Microsoft was "killing" Windows mobile and all of their focus was going to apps for the Apple and Android platforms.

I don't know how much I should believe him or not but it was concerning to hear straight from our reps mouth.

 

[xandros9]

Re: Microsoft Rep "Windows Mobile is dead, cannot wait"

Well MS is kinda killing the platform through some degree of neglect.

I'd just say its on life support, piggybacking on desktop 10.

 

[whereismydamnphone]

Re: Microsoft Rep "Windows Mobile is dead, cannot wait"

So... what's exactly stopping him from ditching his windows phone when even the big heads at microsoft seem to have iphones ?

 

[xandros9]

Re: Microsoft Rep "Windows Mobile is dead, cannot wait"

So... what's exactly stopping him from ditching his windows phone when even the big heads at microsoft seem to have iphones ?

could be cost, a contract, he's waiting to see the 7 unveiled.

 

[Rich99301]

I am in IT and we had a guy in from MS in about 2 weeks ago and he already had an iPhone. It used to be that they had to have a Windows Phone a few years ago. Now he is using the iPhone. Once I saw that, I knew Windows Phone was dead.

It is a shame, it is a great OS. I have a BLU Win HD LTE running Windows 10 and a 640 running Windows 8.1 to hold me over until I decide if I am going iPhone or some flavor of Android.

 

[steve_w_7]

Exciting times are indeed ahead...

You must be new around here.

 

[Munter2]

I'm in the same boat you are. When Microsoft said they weren't updating the 925, there was no way I'd ever buy another Windows Phone and it was hello Nexus 6P for me. I still come here from time to time because there was so much potential, but what could have been isn't and I don't think that will ever change now.