06-11-2017 10:27 AM
38 12
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  1. nate0's Avatar
    Hey, maybe I am wrong, but I see MSFTs plans for mobile a little differently from many fans. I see as something that unfolds, piece by piece in a particular order of priority, rather than all at once. More of a series of phases.
    This is has been my thinking since they went to W10M/W10. Each as a stepping stone for what is later in the pipeline. It is the hand off's/transitions that are key here, and critical...
    Drael646464 likes this.
    06-03-2017 08:14 PM
  2. Photonsym's Avatar
    I wish they would make a more streamlined and cleaner os. They would probably need to add something new and compeelling to warrant a platform switch and maybe I'm asking for to much but how about that surface phone we heard rumours about XD?
    06-04-2017 10:31 AM
  3. Awhispersecho's Avatar
    The problem with all of this is that if they go another year without a Mobile play (meaning phone), losing users, losing developers, losing mind share and market share, they are going to get to a point that Windows itself is no longer relevant. At that point, it doesn't matter what they do. Consumers use PC's less and they don't use them because they run Windows, PC's don't attract developers because consumers don't use apps on their PC's. Mobile is the only market that attracts consumers, which then attracts developers, which then attracts consumers. Mobile is all that matters now.

    You can say they still have enterprise but at some point that will go away too. If less people are using Windows and not relying on Windows programs to create docs, and less developers are creating apps that help business, business is going to go where the consumers and developers are. Enterprise does not dictate the market, consumers and programs do. MS, by giving up on Mobile when they did, has put Windows itself at risk of disappearing sooner rather than later. It will take a miracle at this point to change the momentum and direction things are going. To do that, you have to change the thinking of consumers and I think we are way past the point of that being possible.

    I hope I'm wrong but I believe that Windows itself, will no longer be relevant within 5 years, The consumer portion of the market will be even sooner. And it will all be because they screwed up, gave up and flat out were incapable of doing 1 thing right in the phone market. Phones are all that matters and MS (Nadella) literally walked away at the most crucial point for Windows there has ever been.
    06-04-2017 05:46 PM
  4. Sedp23's Avatar
    Too many reboots and even now its not going to solve the app problem.

    Sent from Idol 4s
    06-04-2017 07:41 PM
  5. a5cent's Avatar
    Doesn't compute. Why would they develop these things intending to drop the platform?
    You're right. It doesn't compute. It sounds to me like the author does have contacts at MS, but as is usual with most tech "journalists", they don't understand half of the information they dig up.

    From what I understand, the second branch really is a dead end. All existing Lumia devices are serviced from that branch. When MS decides to axe support for all existing Lumia devices, that branch will be frozen and that will be the end of W10M as we know it today.

    What this completely misses is that just a few months ago, W10M was built directly off the main W10 branch. Nothing about that has changed. W10M is still contained in the main Windows branch and MS can still build W10M from that main Windows branch. They just don't (for arguably legitimate reasons which I won't get into here).

    When CShell and everything else the author of the article mentions is completed, MS will still be able to build a "W10M" version of Windows off the main branch. All that means is that MS will still be able to build that same smaller, more efficient and far more secure version of Windows (thanks to ditching Win32 support) that is focused exclusively on running real UWP apps (which excludes those ported via Centennial). That's all W10M really is, no matter what name we call it by (hopefully MS will use a new name by the time it is re-released).
    nate0, milkyway and libra89 like this.
    06-04-2017 09:02 PM
  6. nate0's Avatar
    That's all W10M really is, no matter what name we call it by (hopefully MS will use a new name by the time it is re-released).
    Along with a stellar name make it intriguing, catchy, and future proof!
    06-04-2017 09:14 PM
  7. Drael646464's Avatar
    You're right. It doesn't compute. It sounds to me like the author does have contacts at MS, but as is usual with most tech "journalists", they don't understand half of the information they dig up.

    From what I understand, the second branch really is a dead end. All existing Lumia devices are serviced from that branch. When MS decides to axe support for all existing Lumia devices, that branch will be frozen and that will be the end of W10M as we know it today.

    What this completely misses is that just a few months ago, W10M was built directly off the main W10 branch. Nothing about that has changed. W10M is still contained in the main Windows branch and MS can still build W10M from that main Windows branch. They just don't (for arguably legitimate reasons which I won't get into here).

    When CShell and everything else the author of the article mentions is completed, MS will still be able to build a "W10M" version of Windows off the main branch. All that means is that MS will still be able to build that same smaller, more efficient and far more secure version of Windows (thanks to ditching Win32 support) that is focused exclusively on running real UWP apps (which excludes those ported via Centennial). That's all W10M really is, no matter what name we call it by (hopefully MS will use a new name by the time it is re-released).
    Yeah its hard to know much beyond that something is changing with windows on mobile. There will be a new "variant" for the new Andromeda hardware, and something is changing about the standard variant.

    We know via whartonbrooks that MS doesn't want to add a bunch of new phones to support under rs3. That probably means existing phones with get rs3, and they intend on shifting the standards in some way beyond that (2018). In which way, its hard to guess.

    Mostly likely these changes relate to cshell as you say. And most likely they intend to use the code they are developing for win10m, for the changed version.

    Whether than new version runs on old hardware, and has the same name, whether feature2 is folded back into the main development line, or left to run its course after rs3, its hard to say.

    Some big changes are coming that could make the later a possibility, and is also possible they wish to change the hardware configuration for windows phone in some way too.

    On the other hand, there really isn't anything broke with win10m as an OS design. Its a beautiful UI, that's easy to use (my mum preferred it to android, for look and ease of use), it runs the UWP apps, which are a thing that will stay.

    If they were to build the app platform via other windows variants, they could probably offer a compelling reason for at least the 2.5% US installed userbase measured by comScore, to buy a new phone and stay in the platform, as well as expand on that via the new hardware configuration and hardware ecosystem.

    What I mean by this, is that win10m, as it is, with timeline, cshell, Cortana skills etc, could happily sit along side windows on arm on tablets, and the new Andromeda hardware "phone" - it may well be that they just want to shift the hardware standards for such devices. Or they might want to add win32 to continuum.

    It's really hard to guess other than "something is going to change on win10m", "cshell is a thing" and "some new catergory is coming to sit along side it" (from what I have read, its a detachable clamshell device, I'm fairly certain of that).
    06-04-2017 10:07 PM
  8. Drael646464's Avatar
    Consumers use PC's less and they don't use them because they run Windows.
    1 in 5 people own them now instead of 1 in 4, globally. PC's are still very common. Windows is by far the most popular desktop platform.

    PC's don't attract developers because consumers don't use apps on their PC's.
    From my rough survey I'd guess about a third of people use UWP apps on their desktop, and most of windows tablet users. 500,000 windows 10 users, its not exactly nothing in terms of developers, even if most desktop users don't use them - desktop users pay for software, mobile users generally don't.

    Mobile is the only market that attracts consumers, which then attracts developers, which then attracts consumers.
    Not at all. Consumers use desktops, they use laptops, they use tablets and they use consoles (and portable gaming devices). If you come across a consumer that has one device in their home, and its a phone - they are probably poor. Most OECD homes have multiple devices, in multiple catergories- a virtual sea of devices.

    Mobile is all that matters now.
    I think we are a few quarters away from negative growth. It's also kind of innovation stagnant, and there's very little advantage of a new device over an older one.
    The nm process advance slowing, the breaking of moores law and the size constraints of mobile devices also poses a very real problem for chipset advancements. Desktops can go to insane numbers of cores, and lean more heavily on GPU. They have more room to step around this increasing technological limitation.
    The advent of VR is also a very good reason why mobile will become less important. VR on a phone is nasea inducing and a vastly inferior experience - you want than GPU power desktops and consoles have for VR. If anything the mobile experience of VR is off-putting. Yet VR, whilst small, and nascent has the kind of growth investors know will blow up.

    I think we have witnessed the peak of the slab candybar smartphone, and it's likely a slow down hill from here, as various newer techs supercede it (AR glasses as a display tech, VR on stationary machines, folding screen formats etc). All of which make redundant the small screen, touch only app format catalogue that exists, in a similar way that mouse apps didn't help much with touch screen.

    It won't be so much a matter of pocket devices disappearing, just reducing in growth and being replaced to some degree by newer technologies. I think in about 10 years, no one will consider mobile the be all and end app, things like wearables and AR/VR and AI will be the new thing.

    You can say they still have enterprise but at some point that will go away too. If less people are using Windows and not relying on Windows programs to create docs, and less developers are creating apps that help business, business is going to go where the consumers and developers are.
    Where do you work? No, enterprise is not going to use android or chromeOS. Never going to happen. All the software they use exists on windows (or MacOS)

    Enterprise does not dictate the market, consumers and programs do.
    Only true for some products, like slab phones. Not actually true of many catergories, for example there is vastly more money and more use in enterprise IoT than in consumer. Enterprise are giving out take home laptops, not take home chromebooks (for a variety of reasons, from software capability, to peripheral support, to network abilities).

    People in general expect and need less from phones, enterprise included. Even something basic, like google docs - not a real competitor to office 365. Schools may use google docs, but business will not.

    MS, by giving up on Mobile when they did, has put Windows itself at risk of disappearing sooner rather than later.
    I don't think so. I do think MSFT puts itself at risk of being taken on in the desktop market with a more serious product like fuschia, or a hybrid OS from apple, if they let google and apple have bigger cashflow due to smartphone sales. They have real dominance in desktops, and in gaming - they shouldn't risk losing that. But on the other hand, I think that cashflow is going to slowly shrink from here on in phones.
    It's not an ideal position, and MSFT needs to have a mobile strategy - and not just an enterprise one, as in the smartphone biz, consumers rule. Clearly they do have a strategy based on all the leaks, but they ain't telling anyone what it is.

    It will take a miracle at this point to change the momentum and direction things are going. To do that, you have to change the thinking of consumers and I think we are way past the point of that being possible.
    Tell that to blackberry, nokia, IBM and Sony with their walkman ;) Consumers change their minds all the time, history is a liternary of that.

    It won't take a miracle, it'll just take some consumer saavy marketing and some good design innovation.
    The first part, the marketing, is the issue I have most scepticism regarding MSFT.

    They have great products, good innovation but always seem to undersell them to consumers.

    I hope I'm wrong but I believe that Windows itself, will no longer be relevant within 5 years, The consumer portion of the market will be even sooner.
    Where do you think all the enterprise users, and the gamers will go? Even home users? What are the actually viable alternatives (the desktops that do the things they want their desktops to do) you think they will go to?

    I can't think of anything that could replace windows effectively, that currently exists. Perhaps some small number of consumers might settle for the simplicity of chromeOS, but even then, I am doubtful that will go anywhere - chromeOS has less marketshare than windows 10m, of desktops, and its less powerful than windows s. It has all the hopefull prospects of growth in desktops and laptops as blackberry OS does of gaining smartphone market dominance IMO.

    Specifically - what in your mind is going to replace the more than a billion windows desktops? Do you see xbox ceasing to exist?

    What are people going to game and VR on? What are they going to use for their legacy enterprise software, run their oracle databases on, run their virtual terminals via?

    Is 2020 the year of Linux or macOS in your mind? Or are all those complex tasks going to miraculously be achievable on an android smartphone funded by software purchases running less than 4 bucks?

    For that to even look remotely like happening, ios and android users would have to start spending real money of software, and to specifically be looking at power user functions, and fully featured games. Neither of those are particularly compatible with the candy bar FF. You do casual things on smartphones. The screen is too small and fiddly, and the input too low in precision and control for people to pay even ANY money for those sorts of applications, let alone the amount desktop users are often prepared to pay, for adobe, EA games, console games, office, oracle, azure etc....

    Smartphones are for basic stuff. They in themselves present no threat to desktops. What does present a threat is how much money that gives google and apple to create real competition for MSFT in its strongholds.
    Last edited by Drael646464; 06-05-2017 at 12:24 AM.
    nate0 likes this.
    06-05-2017 12:08 AM
  9. nate0's Avatar
    I have this crazy idea that when Microsoft makes the next break through in their quantum computing research that much more than some of that will over flow into their cloud computing/consumer areas. Where you mentioned phablets bar phones reducing I see something like the foldable pocket device that is only that and maybe some insane engineering with a kind of hybrid throughput networking that leverages the quantum break through that is later to come. Much later probably though. Yet why not start packing in some of that into every mobile device (WoA) that they put out from here on out....
    06-05-2017 12:58 AM
  10. Drael646464's Avatar
    I have this crazy idea that when Microsoft makes the next break through in their quantum computing research that much more than some of that will over flow into their cloud computing/consumer areas. Where you mentioned phablets bar phones reducing I see something like the foldable pocket device that is only that and maybe some insane engineering with a kind of hybrid throughput networking that leverages the quantum break through that is later to come. Much later probably though. Yet why not start packing in some of that into every mobile device (WoA) that they put out from here on out....
    Yes, I see AR glasses (smaller, actual glasses size), with AR screens, and folding tablets with fully featured desktop apps, and simpler mobile versions for the folded up size. I think a lot of the time it'll be preferable to use the AR glasses functionally (larger screens for one, easier portability), but folding tablets make for a more casual experience like a book, and may be seen as more social than being immersed in hidden worlds. Also the price of each is yet to be determined, at this point, either would be prohibitively expensive to be successful, but time will bring that down - just to where though is the question, and that'll influence which is more successful.

    The whole scroll phone or watch will probably take some marketshare too, as some people do prefer less heavy equipment to carry (myself included). And likely the glasses for the foreseeable future will need a satellite device to actually drive it - it'll be nothing more than a display - so it'll need a watch, a scroll phone, or a folding tablet with it anyway.

    Of course some applications will get bigger, and beefier, not smaller. VR that looks and feels like life, driven by light shot directly into your eyes, and movements and basic sensations pumped and pulled straight into/from your motor cortex while you lie still. AI that isn't specialized or simple, but actually cognitively complex and life like. even sentient, or smarter than humans - these things, at least initially will require faster, more powerful machines, nor smaller ones. Maybe even room scale, or perhaps building scale in some cases (We of course will want AI to solve all our science questions, and as quickly as possible - and emulating real life in VR will require an actual replication of physics - both takes are impossibly complex)

    Re: quantum computing....well there are several areas of alternative CPU architectures that are at this point really worth exploring. Light based processing, massively parallel like IBM's AI chip, and quantum. They'll take a bit of work, and a lot of adaption though. Quantum for example returns offs, ons and "both", in typical quantum fashion. Massively parallel works more like intuition than logic. Light has scaling issues. There is quantum based storage possible too. And maybe just maybe faster than light networking one day, but all of this is far really from even the first saleable product, or any useful software to run on it.

    I think with the limits of the nm process now, we will have to look at these others. Massively parallel is a first obvious step, we already lean that way with GPUs, why not turn 16/32 cores into hundreds and see if we can make use of it.

    Quantum has real promise because of its speed (especially for something like solving all our science questions, and creating a technological singularity), but like massively parallel (which is more like a brain than a regular cpu) its partly about human beings getting their heads round how to practically use it, and code for it - how do you write useable software that returns yes, nos' and maybes...How do you get meaningful output.

    In a way, its as much about us adapting as it is about the technology. Which seems to be a theme. Smartphones have basically made people more depressed and less connected. Computers removed productivity from the workplace (pen and paper is laughably more efficient in most cases). Smart devices, and cars make people lazy and weak. VR will probably make people escapist and completely unable to cope with normal life.

    As exciting as the future is in some ways, its more worrying to me, our ability to make technology human, rather than make humans technological.
    Last edited by Drael646464; 06-05-2017 at 06:26 AM.
    nate0 likes this.
    06-05-2017 06:16 AM
  11. nate0's Avatar
    ^^I couldn't agree more.
    06-05-2017 06:59 AM
  12. AlvaroNos's Avatar
    Cahell is the key for all of this... also fluent design on PC makes the future mobile os be better for mobile devices, have a look at the new notification center in the latest build. Sounds interesting though, lets see what they have in MS.
    06-11-2017 09:22 AM
  13. Sprint51's Avatar
    I doubt Microsoft has learned how to treat the customer or to market a product. That would require the hiring of true marketing people and we all know that Microsoft is not very good at marketing. They build great products but have poor skills at marketing and customer development. I only hope they prove me wrong.
    06-11-2017 10:27 AM
38 12

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