Why I think the media is wrong: RT is the future, desktop will disappear, eventually

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ninjaap

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Microsoft defends Windows RT as necessary disruption | Microsoft - CNET News

If you read between the lines, you can see that MS intends for RT to be the future. I think all the anti-RT or "there's no reason for RT" people just don't understand that, eventually, the goal for MS is to kill off the desktop side. Remember the promise of program once and it will work in all screens (PC, tablet, phone)? You can't do that with desktop programs. Now whether or not MS is skillful enough to convince developers and consumers to switch over is another story, but I think they will somehow pull it off. I'm not saying it will happen over night, but you will see a gradual evolution in RT technology as it will become more consumer and power user friendly. Desktop programs are now referred to as Legacy programs. That's your first clue that it's going the way of the dodo bird.

People are talking about legacy desktop software not running, but they don't think about the customer benefit of only running modern apps. The only apps that you install from the Windows store are the kind, that as a customer, you can manage your rights to.

Let's say you drop that PC in a pool. Well, you get a new one and then you just redownload [the apps]. That's the kind of model people are used to with a phone or tablet today. I can maintain all the apps in the [Microsoft] store and reset with a single switch.

So, on Windows RT, the user experience stays consistent over time. That's a big benefit. And as the number of apps grow in the store, that value promise only gets stronger.

Windows Blue: desktop mode being phased out | BGR
Microsoft?s Secret Plan to Make You Hate Windows 8 Less

Leaked Windows Blue build:
Windows Blue build 9364 leaked, shows numerous improvements | Windows Phone Central
Microsoft News | Windows File Manager For Modern UI Revealed In Leaked Blue Build


EDIT: In this discussion we are referring to desktop the UI, not hardware. And I am using RT to represent Modern UI, simply because if the desktop UI does disappear, then all we're really left with is Windows RT.
 
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Ron Penton

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I disagree completely. As a software developer at a business who is exclusively on the Windows Development Platform, killing the desktop will be Microsofts worst mistake. They may be getting killed in the retail arena, but as far as development and business goes, .NET developers are the hottest thing around. Go to any city, anywhere in the US and you will see tons of ads for C# developers.

Developing software on RT just isn't going to work. So if Microsoft really wants to ditch an entire industry that is making it tons of money through Visual Studio/Team Foundation Server/Microsoft Office licenses... well that'll be exactly like shooting themselves in the foot. The desktop isn't going anywhere, if Microsoft is smart.
 

inteller

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last time I checked .Net was not limited to the desktop...it is a framework not a format. .Net is going to evolve into WInRT so I'd start learning now.
 

prlundberg

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I agree that's what Microsoft is trying to do. However Metro/Modern has a LONG way to go to replace desktop functionalities. Removing things like folders, file structures, and windows makes no sense on a desktop. Plus they removed the application openess that built them into a near-monopoly to begin with. If they don't pull their heads out of their butts soon, I don't think there is any question that they will fail. And it will be the most epic failure in the history of computing.

So sure, there is potential, and for the most part I like my RT tablet. But using Metro as a desktop? No thanks. It's easily the worst desktop OS on the market IMO.
 

inteller

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no one said using metro as a desktop, we are talking about desktop going away completely. 30 years ago Command prompt was the "desktop" how often do you access it now? This is a paradigm shift in computer usage.
 

martinmc78

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I don't see it either. My RT is amazing but it would only be half of what it is without my desktop behind it. Personally I don't see either one disappearing but rather growing alongside each other.
 

ninjaap

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I agree that's what Microsoft is trying to do. However Metro/Modern has a LONG way to go to replace desktop functionalities. Removing things like folders, file structures, and windows makes no sense on a desktop. Plus they removed the application openess that built them into a near-monopoly to begin with. If they don't pull their heads out of their butts soon, I don't think there is any question that they will fail. And it will be the most epic failure in the history of computing.

So sure, there is potential, and for the most part I like my RT tablet. But using Metro as a desktop? No thanks. It's easily the worst desktop OS on the market IMO.

The way I see it is, they did not remove things, they just hadn't added it yet. I think what's going to happen is you will continue to see all these functions migrate over to Modern UI and minimal/no further improvements (in terms of added features) will be added to desktop. I also think that all this talk about Windows Blue, will benefit and evolve Modern UI even further. They will take what they've learned from Windows 7 and listen to user needs. Assuming, Blue means quicker and more frequent updates, it could allow MS to push out new features (not just security and speed improvements) demanded by its users in a short amount of time. Besides, legacy programs, Modern UI could eventually outmatch desktop in efficiency and desktop will just become another file/program taking up precious hard drive space.
 

phirefly

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It will take several years, they need to build the app ecosystem and get people used to Modern UI but they will eventually kill the desktop. By desktop I mean the legacy Windows 7 desktop. Desktop computers with touchscreens probably mostly all in ones will become more common. Maybe what I really mean is no necessarily RT is the future but more of a Modern UI apps will be your only choice several years from now. I think Windows 10 will drop all legacy application support and will only support 8 on up Modern UI apps. By Windows 9 maybe all of Microsofts app and windows components will finally be Modern UI. I hate dropping into compatibility mode for Control Panel and services and such. They should have completed all of that before releasing 8 but I think they had to get something out to get the app process moving.

Andy Rubbin moving away from Android is I think Google's same type of shift. I believe they want Android apps to run on ChromeOS to give you the phone/tablet/laptop experience Microsoft is going towards.

Just because an app uses Modern UI doesn't mean it can't be a full featured complicated application. I think right now people just associate Modern UI with phone apps that are generally pretty simple.
 

prlundberg

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Just because an app uses Modern UI doesn't mean it can't be a full featured complicated application. I think right now people just associate Modern UI with phone apps that are generally pretty simple.

Yes, it does. Right now anyway. MIcrosoft couldn't get their own Office suite and a lot of basic configuration controls into the Modern UI and did a rather poor job with IE.

It could happen. But will it? Not without major improvements Microsoft appears to be completely oblivious to.
 

prlundberg

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no one said using metro as a desktop, we are talking about desktop going away completely. 30 years ago Command prompt was the "desktop" how often do you access it now? This is a paradigm shift in computer usage.

The difference is going to a windows-based GUI from command line offered many productivity advantages in a desktop environment. Going to Modern hurts productivity. There is always going to be a need for an efficient and powerful desktop environment by people who work at their computers all day long. Modern/Metro does not offer this in its current form. Without business users Microsoft cannot survive, it's the backbone of their existence.
 

Jaskys

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Killing desktop would be the biggest mistake they could make, but they would never do it.
Maybe in 50 years when gaming pc could be a size of a phone and you just plug it to tv or monitor...
 

ninjaap

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Killing desktop would be the biggest mistake they could make, but they would never do it.
Maybe in 50 years when gaming pc could be a size of a phone and you just plug it to tv or monitor...

50 yrs? Try a few years.That's supposedly one of the promises that Windows Blue brings to the table, apps will be scalable to multiple screen sizes, between PC, tablets and phone, without having to rewrite or port them.
 

rebornempowered

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If I was Microsoft I would get on making ARM based workstations for businesses with Windows RT on them. They could have a locked down app store for what they need and the energy savings would be ridiculous. Think of all the doctors offices you have been in that have 30+ computers with full x86 processors to run some basic program that people just use to put data into. What an unnecessary amount of power both from a computing standpoint and from an energy standpoint.
 

spaulagain

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The difference is going to a windows-based GUI from command line offered many productivity advantages in a desktop environment. Going to Modern hurts productivity. There is always going to be a need for an efficient and powerful desktop environment by people who work at their computers all day long. Modern/Metro does not offer this in its current form. Without business users Microsoft cannot survive, it's the backbone of their existence.

THIS

I don't think RT will replace desktop for every user, especially for business users. I think MS is going to push RT as the consumer device that average joes use at home and easily integrates as a BYOD at work if they want. The majority of users at home only need what RT offers. MS has already done research proving that and has talked about it on their building windows 8 blog.

The desktop format will remain for hardcore business users like designers, developers, architects, engineers, etc. As a designer, I love the Metro language, but I know I could not work in a desktopless environment.
 

Rich White

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Enterprise Users and Power Users are not going to RT over night. They've got thousands of dollars per workstation invested in legacy apps for video, audio and photo production as well as custom Line of Business applications written for the desktop. "Going RT" is on the bottom of their list of things to do today.

The Consumer Desktop is dead in 5 years. There's still a market for the All-in-ones in 2013. The 7" tablet is cleaning up: the 10" form factor is struggling. Where's the Surface 7"?

The third-party RT software is slow rolling out. It's usable but not not a "must have" selling point.

This is a 5-year transition to touch, gesture, voice, and devices. Holiday 2015 we see a 64-bit showdown between Atom with HD 4600 graphics (Haswell graphics) and the Tegra and other ARM vendors 64-bit pushing new graphic engines.
 

Keith Wallace

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That quote is actually pretty dumb, in my opinion. They're saying that's what you get with RT, but it's ACTUALLY what you get with the Microsoft Store. All that is on the Microsoft Store is also on the current Windows 8 machines, in addition to the legacy software. They can push that model without making the x86 version of the OS disappear. However, they cannot sit there and strip away decades of software in the name of convenience, because it hurts convenience and productivity. Arguably, it actually hurts convenience as well, because you might have to reacquire software you already have on a Windows 8 device on Windows RT.

Quick example: As many can attest to, Xbox Music is currently a mess on the PC. I use Zune for music as a result. If I went to Windows RT, I'd totally lose my Zune software, plus Trillian (how I use IM, because IM+ is simply inferior), and a bunch more.

I guess arguing that isn't really sensible, though. What I think we need to figure out is totally different. We need to determine if Windows RT's MODEL is going to be the norm, or if Windows RT itself is going to take over in this scenario.

By that, I mean will we see x86 survive? Could the RT environment of apps become popularized for distribution? I absolutely think so. However, could RT, meaning the ARM-based OS itself, replace the x86 computer entirely? Not a chance. I think that would kill both the business and gaming markets for Microsoft. How terrible would it be for consumers if they could no longer access World of Warcraft, Steam, Diablo, StarCraft, and all of their x86-based games?

I guess if you want to talk about 10 years from now, you could be right. However, I don't think that there is ANY chance of ARM-based devices toppling and replacing x86 hardware entirely. The business world certainly hasn't converted its software for that, and the gaming community can't even control such a thing. I mean, consider that the new console generation is allegedly going to be x86-powered. How would game companies like it if as consoles come towards x86, PCs jump towards ARM?
 

HeyCori

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Desktops won't die. Touched based interfaces cannot duplicate a standard mouse and keyboard. Anyone that has to do any sort of video editing, graphics or web design, photos, even Office work will heavily depend on a desktop. However, the need for a desktop/AIO will greatly diminish. PC sales are down. Tablets sales are up. This trend is not changing anytime soon. Portability is a factor but so is ease-ability. Tablets are pick-up-and-go devices best suited for media consumption. Plus they require little maintenance. That's incredibly appealing. However, anyone with a tablet can attest to this, but it gets pretty annoying when you have to type out a long email, fill out a form, or use anything that requires multitasking. Even if you have a detachable keyboard/mouse you still have to lug that equipment around with you. And let's not forget, desktops are already in the $300 range. A lot of people are going to choose a desktop PC simply because they're going to get way more value for their money.

Still, the family with one desktop computer probably isn't going to buy a second. They're going to get a tablet, probably multiple tablets, but only one desktop. That's why I don't think the desktop is going to disappear, because there is always going to be a need for it. And I must say, I'd hate if Microsoft got rid of desktop mode from RT. I have a Surface RT and I love using it in tablet mode. I also like to output to an external monitor. That's when desktop mode becomes essential. Even with RT's limited desktop functionality, desktop mode opens up a whole new world of possibility. File management becomes a breeze. I can run IE, Word, Paint, all that while having a metro app open WHILE having another metro app snapped to the side. I can't get that sort of functionality out of an iPad or Android tablet. And definitely not from a Kindle Fire. Desktop mode not only makes RT unique, it also makes it far more useful. And while I'm not outputting to another monitor I can still rely on a nice tablet experience.
 
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