Why I think the media is wrong: RT is the future, desktop will disappear, eventually

[dukrem]

The desktop will not go. As has been said above it is necessary for many users/corporations for productivity applications. I don't think most people understand just how much of Microsoft's profit comes from these customers. Microsoft is not Apple, they will not tell their customer base what they should like. They will not expect their entire customer base to move to an inferior less productive interface. Sure, they will provide it and continue to enhance it for their touch-screen customers, and as part of their plan to unify the ecosystem, but the desktop will certainly remain.

I also think the statement about windows blue unifying the app ecosystem so that you can use the same apps on all platforms is slightly misinterpreted. It doesn't mean they are going to force mouse and keyboard users into a less productive interface, it means they are going to make every app accessible to every customer, no matter what the form factor or platform. I think the more likely outcome from this objective is that we see metro apps being able to be run on the desktop in windowed mode alongside classic desktop apps.

That said I definitely see a place for RT, especially on touch devices like tablets, and maybe even phones in the future. In fact I own a surface RT, and I'm glad I bought it over an x86 tablet due to the battery life and the fact that I really don't want to be trying to use desktop apps on it. I can see RT tablets improving a lot quicker than x86 tablets, the SOC Microsoft used in the surface is fairly old, there are huge speed and battery life improvements to be had on RT just by using a new processor.

I think due to the rapid improvements we are seeing in ARM processors, RT devices could soon become competitive with x86 in terms of raw power. We may even see the desktop becoming more open and flexible on RT in the future. Imagine being able to get to work, dock your RT tablet to a big screen, mouse and keyboard, and be able to open all your productivity software in a desktop environment.

Yes, there is a general transition to touch in the market, but Microsoft's core consumers will never be able to completely transition away from the desktop. Also despite sales of touch devices going up and traditional hardware sales going down, most consumers that buy touch devices still have their traditional desktop that they use for certain things. The fact that sales have dropped is mainly due to the point we have reached where hardware is very fast and software is getting more efficient, resulting in less frequent need to upgrade.

 

[Ntropy99]

When speaking of the desktop, are we talking about the "windowed environment" or the big box that sits next to the monitor. Seems to me that the big box is already making way to tablets, laptops, and touchscreen all-in-one monitors. That desktop is moving on. With the rise in the ARM processors, MS had to develop an OS that maintained an ecosystem of functionality with the x86 processors or fall prey to the criticism that they were being left behind and unable to meet current computing trends. Did MS make a mistake in making an OS that looks exactly like the x86 counterpart? I have been torn between buying a Surface RT tablet or an Atom based tablet. The Surface tablet is not able to run legacy programs, and I don't expect that it should any more than I expect the Ipad to run OSX programs. It does come with Office, which is important to me. The Atom based tablet can run legacy apps and viruses, doesn't come with office or one of the anti-virus suites (as far as I know), and is underpowered like a netbook. I will likely buy the RT version for my needs, hoping that the price comes down before I do. BTW, I like tiles better than widgets.
If we are talking about the "windowed environment" desktop, it will disappear as well and the start screen that replaced the start button will become the de facto desktop. My biggest issue is the process that is with how MS over-simplified the settings, which is great for a tablet but not the home PC, and hid the real settings screens that I have known since Windows 95. So the complaint in this case isn't with RT or the desktop, it is with Win8 in general. I actually dislike the desktop window and find it distracting. I am hoping someone can eventually explain to me the irrational dislike for the app tiles over the more favored desktop program icons that equally launch the executable file.
So, where does RT fit? It fits in the space currently filled by the other underpowered tablets on an ARM processor but with a stronger productivity purpose in mind, and unfortunately confuses the tech writers who can't see the bigger picture. At least, for now it does.

 

[ninjaap]

http://www.windowscentral.com/windows-blue-update-build-9364-leaked

What is this? Oh its Blue, one of many improvements that address user complaints. Multitasking and more settings within Modern UI are the big ones for me. Making it less likely for me to have to switch over to desktop during simple tasks. There is also a rumor that they're building a Modern file manager. Hopefully, someday, I will never have to switch over to desktop. Ever.

 

[ninjaap]

Desktops won't die. Touched based interfaces cannot duplicate a standard mouse and keyboard. Anyone that has to do any sort of video editing, graphics or web design, photos, even Office work will heavily depend on a desktop. However, the need for a desktop/AIO will greatly diminish. PC sales are down. Tablets sales are up. This trend is not changing anytime soon. Portability is a factor but so is ease-ability. Tablets are pick-up-and-go devices best suited for media consumption. Plus they require little maintenance. That's incredibly appealing. However, anyone with a tablet can attest to this, but it gets pretty annoying when you have to type out a long email, fill out a form, or use anything that requires multitasking. Even if you have a detachable keyboard/mouse you still have to lug that equipment around with you. And let's not forget, desktops are already in the $300 range. A lot of people are going to choose a desktop PC simply because they're going to get way more value for their money.

Still, the family with one desktop computer probably isn't going to buy a second. They're going to get a tablet, probably multiple tablets, but only one desktop. That's why I don't think the desktop is going to disappear, because there is always going to be a need for it. And I must say, I'd hate if Microsoft got rid of desktop mode from RT. I have a Surface RT and I love using it in tablet mode. I also like to output to an external monitor. That's when desktop mode becomes essential. Even with RT's limited desktop functionality, desktop mode opens up a whole new world of possibility. File management becomes a breeze. I can run IE, Word, Paint, all that while having a metro app open WHILE having another metro app snapped to the side. I can't get that sort of functionality out of an iPad or Android tablet. And definitely not from a Kindle Fire. Desktop mode not only makes RT unique, it also makes it far more useful. And while I'm not outputting to another monitor I can still rely on a nice tablet experience.

In this discussion, we are referring to desktop the UI, not desktop the hardware. And RT is being used to represent Modern UI.

 

[theta_orionis]

I actually agree with you on this; that the "desktop UI" will be replaced by what you are calling the "Modern Metro UI" or some iteration of it. Somewhere there is a ten year old unencumbered by the way things used to be who'll grow up to become a programmer and he or she will feel right at home with the Modern UI. I'll go one step further and say that "desktop hardware" may also be replaced with tablets and slates. Higher capacity SSD, cloud computing and ever more powerful and efficient CPUs are just around the corner and may make desktops and even laptops a thing of the past. 5-10 years from now we may not recognize the home computer.

(btw; saw your Avatar and I'm a longtime Baltimore Ravens fan...please treat "Q" well...he's a warrior, a true gentleman and a stand up guy!

 

[m4tthall]

I work in an environment where you have traders with their many screens on their desk. As much as I personally like the touch based UI in Windows 8 and have had no problems using it on a 'normal' laptop I don't see traders switching any time soon. We have literally just switched to Windows 7 too.

 

[inteller]

Windows Blue will be replacing a lot of the accessories that are currently still on Desktop. I predict Microsoft will carve out the old ones too as they replace them.

 

[ninjaap]

I work in an environment where you have traders with their many screens on their desk. As much as I personally like the touch based UI in Windows 8 and have had no problems using it on a 'normal' laptop I don't see traders switching any time soon. We have literally just switched to Windows 7 too.

No problem:

Windows Blue build 9364 leaked, shows numerous improvements | Windows Phone Central

It's reported that changes have been made to the core system to allow 3 or 4 apps to be "snapped" on-screen at any given time, as well as 2 or more "Metro" apps to be run across multiple displays. Sounding good so far? We couldn't agree more. Microsoft has to battle initial reviews that noted how the new operating system may feel like too much of a climb for those who perform multiple tasks at once. It can be frustrating to juggle multiple apps on Windows 8.

And I'm sure it won't stop there. It will continue to get better and better.

 

[ninjaap]

I actually agree with you on this; that the "desktop UI" will be replaced by what you are calling the "Modern Metro UI" or some iteration of it. Somewhere there is a ten year old unencumbered by the way things used to be who'll grow up to become a programmer and he or she will feel right at home with the Modern UI. I'll go one step further and say that "desktop hardware" may also be replaced with tablets and slates. Higher capacity SSD, cloud computing and ever more powerful and efficient CPUs are just around the corner and may make desktops and even laptops a thing of the past. 5-10 years from now we may not recognize the home computer.

Microsoft's New Envisioning Center: Live, Work, Play - YouTube

(btw; saw your Avatar and I'm a longtime Baltimore Ravens fan...please treat "Q" well...he's a warrior, a true gentleman and a stand up guy!

An excellent example. This shift has been a long time coming. I'm personally tired of the old Windows. I'm ready to move on and support Microsoft to evolve this operating system forward like they've envisioned as seen in this video and others they have put out. Give me touch, give me voice, give me Kinect technology, give me the next generation of keyboards and mouse and make them all work seamlessly together. Give me Minority Report, give me Start Trek and give it to me soon, not 50-100 years from now.

(I was very happy see him join our team! He will be a great target for Kaep and a great role model for our young guys!)

 

[ninjaap]

Windows Blue will be replacing a lot of the accessories that are currently still on Desktop. I predict Microsoft will carve out the old ones too as they replace them.

They should carve out the old ones as they replace them. It will lessen the confusion and learning curve for new users.

 

[Robert Carpenter]

I'm not trying to attack anyone, but whoever says that the desktop is here to stay is wrong. Very wrong.

There are absolutely 0 reasons that it needs to stay. The Modern UI is a work in progress, but the end result will cater to ALL USERS. All functionality that exists in the desktop will get converted over to the Modern UI, but it will be implemented in smarter and strategic new ways.

We can all argue about this forever, but there's no point. There are people who can see Microsoft's strategy and people who can't. And if you don't open you mind to new ways of thinking and computing, you will simply be left behind by the technology.

People that adjust to software > Software that adjusts to people

If you want to continue to this argument, I will be back to this thread in about 2 years so that the first thing I can say is "You were wrong".

 

[inteller]

They should carve out the old ones as they replace them. It will lessen the confusion and learning curve for new users.

I noticed in the leak video sound recorder and calculator were redone. Sound recorder doesn't come on Surface RT so I'm guessing some of the accessories will come with x86 only. Paint is already replaced with Fresh Paint though Microsoft hasn't stated that as fact. I'd like to see PowerShell get replaced with a modern UI equiv so you can dock several side by side.

 

[Robert Carpenter]

I noticed in the leak video sound recorder and calculator were redone. Sound recorder doesn't come on Surface RT so I'm guessing some of the accessories will come with x86 only. Paint is already replaced with Fresh Paint though Microsoft hasn't stated that as fact. I'd like to see PowerShell get replaced with a modern UI equiv so you can dock several side by side.

Ignore the desktop and focus only on metro. If it exists on Windows 8, it exists on Windows RT. Any changes or improvements to Metro that come with Windows Blue will be the same on Windows RT guaranteed.

 

[ninjaap]

Microsoft News | Windows File Manager For Modern UI Revealed In Leaked Blue Build

And now the Modern File Manager emerges with the leaked Blue build.

 

[ninjaap]

Windows Blue: desktop mode being phased out | BGR

And now Paul Thurrot shares mine and other's view:

Thurrott says that by moving desktop functionalities to the tiled interface, Microsoft is gradually trying to nudge users away from desktop mode and thus pave the way for a Windows 9 operating system that “potentially” comes with no desktop mode intact.

Microsoft’s Secret Plan to Make You Hate Windows 8 Less

It probably won’t happen in what I think of as Windows 9—that is, a major revision to Windows 8 that might ship in 2015-ish—but it could happen in the next major release of Windows RT (alongside Windows 9). Windows 10? It’s not hard to imagine.

 

[theefman]

RT may be the future but its a distant future. Just looking at my work PC I see VMware vSphere, Symantec Compliance Control, Visual Studio express, Crystal Reports, Microsoft Secure Compliance manager, and various other one-time use software. Not to mention the Photoshops, Lightrooms, CAD,engineering and other advanced software out there. Being such an open architecture means there are millions of permutations of software that individuals and enterprises use and until all those are converted to run on WinRT Windows RT will not replace the desktop, regardless of whether MS duplicates desktop functionality in the Metro UI.

For Windows RT devices probably the visual upgrades will negate the need to use the desktop but for anyone using any advance software the desktop will always be the default working environment.

 

[berty6294]

I completely 100% agree with the OP! I've said it from the start, Windows 8 is just a bridge, RT (minus desktop) is the destination.

 

[Rich White]

Windows Professional 9 will have desktop and backwards compatibility and be the path for legacy upgrades. Windows Home 9 will not have desktop, will run store apps only and will not be an option for legacy upgrade..

Windows Home and Home RT (ARM) will be on Televisions and Devices including 6" phone-puters and XBox.

My best guess looking at roadmaps. Win 32 will not be supported in Win 9 and it will support legacy only as a Emulator -- Desktop Virtual Machine on Pro.

 

[Cleavitt76]

As a developer I am absolutely positive that there is no way the "Windows Desktop" (i.e. multi-window UI) is going away in the next decade at least. It would require the invention of an entirely different way of interacting with computers beyond what currently exists. Like a telepathic human interface or something. Anyone who says differently probably doesn't use their computer to do any complicated or precise work. If MS got rid of the desktop in a future version of Windows they wouldn't even be able to work in that version of Windows to develop the version after it.

It's possible that some of the concepts of Modern UI will make it into the desktop UI. They already have if you look at task manager in Windows 8. It's possible that more of the development aspects will be shared and that there will be hybrid applications. Much of it already is shared since the .Net framework, XAML, and similar programming technologies that are core to most Modern UI apps have been used to build "Desktop" apps for several years now.

This issue has nothing to do with the availability of touchscreens and it's not just matter of creating more advanced Modern UI apps. Modern UI isn't even a specific technology. It's based on the same MS programming tools and languages used to created desktop and web apps. Modern UI is mostly a concept for creating clean, simplified, touch optimized applications. The concepts that make Modern UI great for touch optimized apps are things like bigger fonts, bigger buttons, lots of empty space around fonts/buttons, and scaling the app to fill the entire screen space regardless of resolution along with recommended best practices for navigation, etc. Those things are all fine and good for apps that allow things like listening to music, watching a video, or viewing a web site. However, those same concepts do not work for programs that require lots of data on the screen at once and a high degree of precise control by the user. For example, editing music tracks, editing video, or creating a web site. Can you imaging trying to edit a photo in a version of Photoshop that follows Modern UI design principles? Good luck selecting the right pixel while you are mashing a 50x50 pixel blob with your fingertip. Good luck finding all of the functionality that Photoshop has to offer while you are scrolling through 50 screens worth of options in a 0.5" tall font. There are many, many, many other programs that require the same level of control as Photoshop and touch is never going to be the right human interface for that type of work.

At work I'm using a system with 3 widescreen high resolution monitors right now and I have 5 - 15 programs visible on those screens at any given time. If I was working with programs written by Modern UI standards my workstation would be nearly useless to me. The productivity loss would be astounding. This is actually one of the big reasons that Windows 8 got so much backlash. Many people still mistakenly think that Windows 8 runs everything full screen because of the start screen and other screenshots/ads they have seen that show full screen Modern UI apps like Mail and Calendar.

Also, as other have said, companies around the world have billions of man hours invested in various custom desktop apps. They are not going to re-write them all (especially the ones where the Modern UI design is not even appropriate). MS would be shooting themselves in the foot by leaving these customers with no upgrade path.

I suspect that MS will continue to make certain elements of Windows touch friendly. The Control Panel and all the settings menus included in it for example. However, this isn't because they are slowly replacing the desktop. It's because they are trying to make core aspects of the OS compatible with both touch and keyboard/mouse interfaces so they don't have to maintain a version for each. They already did this with the Start Screen, but these are screens that users don't typically leave open once they are finished changing a setting or launching a program so they are good candidates for consolidation. MS isn't going to replace apps that users actually use while working at the desktop level. For example, the Modern UI version of calculator does not replace the desktop version of calculator, it supplements it so that both environments have a calculator. If they build a Modern UI file manager it won't replace Explorer, it will simply allow tablet (or Windows RT users) to browse their files more easily. Modern UI Mail/Calendar do not replace the much more complicated and capable Outlook.

MS is no doubt trying to remove some of the desktop dependencies from Window RT so that it is a more seamless experience, but those efforts shouldn't be mistaken as an attempt to get rid of the desktop in the full version of Windows.

 

[Rich White]

MS is no doubt trying to remove some of the desktop dependencies from Window RT so that it is a more seamless experience, but those efforts shouldn't be mistaken as an attempt to get rid of the desktop in the full version of Windows.

I don't think there's ever been a clearer case for differentiating Windows Pro versus Windows Home.

Active Directory and Desktop are pro; Home becomes Modern interface Only with power users encouraged to stick with Pro.