from BGR.com:
1:20 PM At a time when Nokia (NOK) needs a solid quarter to prove to investors that it can stage a comeback, a new analysis suggests Lumia sales in the fourth quarter are shaping up to fall well short of the relatively lofty numbers being tossed around in recent reports. Pacific Crest’s James Faucette tossed some cold water on Lumia sales expectations on Wednesday, stating in a note to investors that the recent spike in Nokia’s stock was driven by some overly optimistic reports. The analyst believes demand for phones like the flagship Lumia 920 is healthy, but he thinks low shipment volumes pose a serious problem for Nokia.
“We believe that the recent rise in the stock may have been driven by what we would characterize as an overly optimistic interpretation of initial Lumia sales commentary,” Faucette told clients in a research note. “Back in mid-November, Bloomberg cited the rise in NOK1V shares as being driven by reports that the Lumia 920 had seen strong demand in Germany. While this may have been the case for a few thousand initial units, our checks indicate that retailers in Germany say they are only now beginning to receive the 920 across normal sales channels, and the volumes being received are still very small.”
He continued, “We believe there is some initial pent-up demand that is resulting in stores selling out of initial shipments in a few days. Nevertheless, we believe this is largely to do with the low shipment volumes rather than surprisingly strong demand. We believe a somewhat similar dynamic is likely going on at AT&T for the 920. Based on the inventory on hand, we believe AT&T is selling only 10,000 to 15,000 Lumia 920 devices per week at the moment. We believe stores are able to sell available stock in a few days; however, we found most stores getting only a handful at a time.”
Faucette estimates that Nokia will ship about 1 million new Windows Phone 8 handsets in the fourth quarter this year, but only about 500,000 units are likely to be sold to end users based on his observations.
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that kind of goes against what this article said just a couple days ago....
12:35 PM Microsoft (MSFT) chief Steve Ballmer has repeatedly told investors and the press that Windows Phone 8 will finally make Microsoft relevant again in the mobile space. And while Ballmer has yet to share any specifics, he did state late last month that since the revitalized Windows Phone 8 platform launched in early November, sales of Windows Phone handsets have quadrupled compared to the same period last year. Now, according to new estimates derived using methods that have proven accurate in the past, it looks like Windows Phone sales may have surpassed 4 million units so far this quarter.
Using publicly available “monthly active users” data from the Facebook app for Windows Phone, blogs have been able to accurately estimate Windows Phone device sales in the past. New MAU data starting at the beginning of October 2012 was recently analyzed, and The Next Web estimates that Windows Phone sales so far this quarter total approximately 4.24 million handsets.
While the figure represents a small fraction of the total number of smartphones expected to be sold in the fourth quarter, it still shows a marked improvement compared to the same period in 2011. The biggest factor in the upswing is likely the Nokia Lumia 920, which has reportedly been met with steep demand in a number of key markets since launching last month.
1:20 PM At a time when Nokia (NOK) needs a solid quarter to prove to investors that it can stage a comeback, a new analysis suggests Lumia sales in the fourth quarter are shaping up to fall well short of the relatively lofty numbers being tossed around in recent reports. Pacific Crest’s James Faucette tossed some cold water on Lumia sales expectations on Wednesday, stating in a note to investors that the recent spike in Nokia’s stock was driven by some overly optimistic reports. The analyst believes demand for phones like the flagship Lumia 920 is healthy, but he thinks low shipment volumes pose a serious problem for Nokia.
“We believe that the recent rise in the stock may have been driven by what we would characterize as an overly optimistic interpretation of initial Lumia sales commentary,” Faucette told clients in a research note. “Back in mid-November, Bloomberg cited the rise in NOK1V shares as being driven by reports that the Lumia 920 had seen strong demand in Germany. While this may have been the case for a few thousand initial units, our checks indicate that retailers in Germany say they are only now beginning to receive the 920 across normal sales channels, and the volumes being received are still very small.”
He continued, “We believe there is some initial pent-up demand that is resulting in stores selling out of initial shipments in a few days. Nevertheless, we believe this is largely to do with the low shipment volumes rather than surprisingly strong demand. We believe a somewhat similar dynamic is likely going on at AT&T for the 920. Based on the inventory on hand, we believe AT&T is selling only 10,000 to 15,000 Lumia 920 devices per week at the moment. We believe stores are able to sell available stock in a few days; however, we found most stores getting only a handful at a time.”
Faucette estimates that Nokia will ship about 1 million new Windows Phone 8 handsets in the fourth quarter this year, but only about 500,000 units are likely to be sold to end users based on his observations.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
that kind of goes against what this article said just a couple days ago....
12:35 PM Microsoft (MSFT) chief Steve Ballmer has repeatedly told investors and the press that Windows Phone 8 will finally make Microsoft relevant again in the mobile space. And while Ballmer has yet to share any specifics, he did state late last month that since the revitalized Windows Phone 8 platform launched in early November, sales of Windows Phone handsets have quadrupled compared to the same period last year. Now, according to new estimates derived using methods that have proven accurate in the past, it looks like Windows Phone sales may have surpassed 4 million units so far this quarter.
Using publicly available “monthly active users” data from the Facebook app for Windows Phone, blogs have been able to accurately estimate Windows Phone device sales in the past. New MAU data starting at the beginning of October 2012 was recently analyzed, and The Next Web estimates that Windows Phone sales so far this quarter total approximately 4.24 million handsets.
While the figure represents a small fraction of the total number of smartphones expected to be sold in the fourth quarter, it still shows a marked improvement compared to the same period in 2011. The biggest factor in the upswing is likely the Nokia Lumia 920, which has reportedly been met with steep demand in a number of key markets since launching last month.
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