01-29-2013 11:14 PM
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  1. ynight's Avatar
    A quick glimpse of sales for the unlocked HSPA+ version: the pre-order opened about three days ago (online exclusively I think) and so far it says "640 sold". http://detail.tmall.com/item.htm?spm=a220m.1000858.1000725.11.0V3UVM&id=16659873114
    this is a bit comfusing for you guys to get into i guess. this is the online store of nokia in china now and it sells this phone more expensive than others(For instance 920 is 4099 in my hometown's china mobile store with charging pad included). It's not online exclusively at all in fact. Lumia 920 is also available in mutiple other online retailers and also the local stores from both retailers and carriers. That's why it only says 640 sold. ŵ920TŵǣNOKIALumia 920T 3GֻɫTD-SCDMA/GSM ۸ ⡿ it looks like their first shipment has sold out here. And it looks like they expect second shipment would not fufill the orders so people may need to wait till january.
    a5cent likes this.
    12-14-2012 07:52 AM
  2. ynight's Avatar
    Unfortunately, no. Qualcomm's supply issue would trace back to TSMC and their inability to keep up with demand for 28nm parts. TSMC manufactures all of Qualcomm's WP8 chipsets. If a WP8 chipset shortage exists, it will apply to any and all WP8 manufacturers and all devices, including the 920T.
    Yea I noticed that some of the bigger online retailers selling 920t indicating their second shipment due 12.25 would likely not fufill the orders and the third shipment would only come sometime 01.2013. I thought some reports said nokia is believed to solve the shortage issue this week, guess that's not true.
    12-14-2012 07:55 AM
  3. a5cent's Avatar
    Yea I noticed that some of the bigger online retailers selling 920t indicating their second shipment due 12.25 would likely not fufill the orders and the third shipment would only come sometime 01.2013. I thought some reports said nokia is believed to solve the shortage issue this week, guess that's not true.
    A supply problem exists. I don't know where the problem lies. If it is with Qualcomm/TSMC, then it is highly unlikely things will improve soon. Samsung transitioning to the S4 is probably Nokia's best hope, as Samsung will produce all S4 chipsets themselves.
    12-14-2012 10:16 AM
  4. ynight's Avatar
    A supply problem exists. I don't know where the problem lies. If it is with Qualcomm/TSMC, then it is highly unlikely things will improve soon. Samsung transitioning to the S4 is probably Nokia's best hope, as Samsung will produce all S4 chipsets themselves.
    if that hindering Nokia's shipment for too long that might just kill them as well. Unlike apple where supplier issue caused lower sales number is a non issue, for Nokia if the first quarter numbers ain't good, no matter what the reason is, that might be it for them.
    Note iPhone 5 goes officially on sale today in china and the reaction is quite disappointing. Hopefully Nokia can grab some iphone's business there as well..
    Sent from my RM-820_nam_att_100 using Board Express
    12-14-2012 10:36 AM
  5. a5cent's Avatar
    for Nokia if the first quarter numbers ain't good, no matter what the reason is, that might be it for them.
    Nokia's situation isn't that dramatic anymore. At their current cash burn rate they could continue on for another two years at least (although that certainly wouldn't be good). Nokia's main difficulties isn't with their financials, but consumer awareness. Nokia has good products, but people don't understand the benefits of a WP device like they do with Android or iPhone.
    12-14-2012 11:58 AM
  6. LikeWaah's Avatar
    a5cent,

    Yes, it's been known for quite some time that TSMC was going to have trouble supplying enough chips. I was assuming that the supply problem was due in part to multiple manufacturers utilizing the exact same chipset for their phones. IOW, if Qualcomm had ordered 50 million of chip A and 50 million of chip B, but chip A is being used by 4 manufacturers, compared to chip B only being used by 2, the supply available for phones using chip B is double that of phones using chip A. This is just a guess, no real homework has been done on my end.

    Going off on a bit of a tangent, I believe these manufacturing issues may open the door for Intel to get into the mobile sector. Intel has manufacturing capabilities far beyond any other company ATM.
    12-14-2012 12:00 PM
  7. a5cent's Avatar
    Going off on a bit of a tangent, I believe these manufacturing issues may open the door for Intel to get into the mobile sector. Intel has manufacturing capabilities far beyond any other company ATM.
    Agree. I've thought about this as well. I would LOVE to see Microsoft pick an Intel 14nm mobile SoC as the next chassis spec for WP. The timelines for WP9 and Intel delivering the 14nm process line up nicely as well. Few are thinking about this now... I'm just waiting for more Info from Intel before I hedge my bets, which would likely include shorting ARM ;-)
    12-14-2012 12:20 PM
  8. yxw4774's Avatar
    It is such pleasure to find such a great thread in WPCentarl to talk about China's telecom market. TD-SCDMA is the home-develpoed network for China. China Mobile showed her responsibiltiy to develop and commercialize this network in China. However, what we should keep in mind is that most consumers in China even do not know that, they do not care about the surfing speed. They cannot tell the difference between EDGR and TD-LTE. Also they have been stuck in their telephone number since Chinese consumers cannot transfer their number at their will among carriers as most Americans do. Thus, even though I am interested in the Lumia 920T, I am still doutful for its sale in China Mobile. The other reason for my doubt is that China Mobile has not invested a lot in their employees training. When I got into a China Mobile store in China and asked about Lumia 920T, one saleswoman told me;"which brand is that?" Nokia is gradually losing its reputation and popularity now in China, which we cannot ignore.

    So, Windows Phone 8 can save Nokia from bankrupty, but cannot push Nokia back where they were in Symbian era.
    12-14-2012 12:46 PM
  9. tebugg's Avatar
    It is such pleasure to find such a great thread in WPCentarl to talk about China's telecom market. TD-SCDMA is the home-develpoed network for China. China Mobile showed her responsibiltiy to develop and commercialize this network in China. However, what we should keep in mind is that most consumers in China even do not know that, they do not care about the surfing speed. They cannot tell the difference between EDGR and TD-LTE. Also they have been stuck in their telephone number since Chinese consumers cannot transfer their number at their will among carriers as most Americans do. Thus, even though I am interested in the Lumia 920T, I am still doutful for its sale in China Mobile. The other reason for my doubt is that China Mobile has not invested a lot in their employees training. When I got into a China Mobile store in China and asked about Lumia 920T, one saleswoman told me;"which brand is that?" Nokia is gradually losing its reputation and popularity now in China, which we cannot ignore.

    So, Windows Phone 8 can save Nokia from bankrupty, but cannot push Nokia back where they were in Symbian era.
    since lumia 920T has a better radio than iphone 5 and can be used on more carriers, wouldnt that give it an edge when worrying about your number? couldnt you just get a lumia 920T and put your number on that since it's unlocked? also the same thing has happened in the u.s. when it comes to stores knowing about the lumia 920. many ppl have already said on this site, that they went in to at&t to ask about the 920 and the store reps had no info about it. that was at the time of launch, now reps know alot about it. could be the same thing happening in china.

    apple stock has dropped 3% today due to the horrible showing at retail stores for the iphone 5. apple stock down to close to $500 now.
    Last edited by tebugg; 12-14-2012 at 01:34 PM.
    12-14-2012 01:13 PM
  10. a5cent's Avatar
    yxw4774, agree. That is pretty much the same as everywhere else in the world. I would have been surprised if it were otherwise. People just aren't expecting Nokia to deliver a modern smartphone. In the U.S. that expectation is changing... very slowly but surly. If the same can be achieved in China (albeit faster), WP has a good chance of claiming a decent bit of market share, particularly because smartphones aren't YET as common as in the west... that gives WP a more level playing field to start from.

    China is WP's most important market, and Nokia's as well. It might also be HTC's, but as far as I can tell it won't be... not because their devices are less worthy, but for political reasons.

    It's a shame it is so hard for us westerners to get good insights into what is going on over there. This thread has been very helpful. Much more wouldn't hurt. ;-)
    12-14-2012 01:17 PM
  11. ynight's Avatar
    Nokia's situation isn't that dramatic anymore. At their current cash burn rate they could continue on for another two years at least (although that certainly wouldn't be good). Nokia's main difficulties isn't with their financials, but consumer awareness. Nokia has good products, but people don't understand the benefits of a WP device like they do with Android or iPhone.
    That might not be the case even I so hope as well. Nokia has been worthing more sold apart then as a whole alive operating for quite a while before the stock price hit back recently.( the break point is around 2.6 last time I checked). what that means is that if the stock price plumet again into that range, there's a chance shareholders will force a sell off of nokia's assets. This is particularly true now than before since a significant amount of recent buys are from funds and orgnizational investors which are in general more powerful than us regualr investors and they will most likely force that into happenning if WP not gonna save nokia soon enough. That's why it is widely believed the new lumia line is nokia's last strike to come back. Fingers crossed.
    12-14-2012 10:02 PM
  12. LikeWaah's Avatar
    That might not be the case even I so hope as well. Nokia has been worthing more sold apart then as a whole alive operating for quite a while before the stock price hit back recently.( the break point is around 2.6 last time I checked). what that means is that if the stock price plumet again into that range, there's a chance shareholders will force a sell off of nokia's assets. This is particularly true now than before since a significant amount of recent buys are from funds and orgnizational investors which are in general more powerful than us regualr investors and they will most likely force that into happenning if WP not gonna save nokia soon enough. That's why it is widely believed the new lumia line is nokia's last strike to come back. Fingers crossed.
    At this point the discussion is probably more appropriate for the Nokia Stock thread, but I think more value could be realized through splitting up Nokia into separate, smaller companies, rather than selling the whole company outright. Navteq and NSN could be worth maintaining as operating companies. Also, the fact that NSN is 50% owned by Siemens may or may not complicate things, depending on who is interested in buying NSN's assets.

    I think it would take a massive failure of the Lumia line for shareholders to even consider forcing a sell off. Even if sales do not blow away expectations, as long as Nokia becomes operationally profitable as a whole, I am not worried.
    12-15-2012 06:53 PM
  13. tebugg's Avatar
    good article about the over exxageration of nokia's stock troubles..............


    Is Nokia the Best Income Opportunity in the Tech Industry?

    By Tim Brugger, The Motley Fool Posted 9:00PM 12/14/12 Posted under: Investing
    010010



    It's been a nice ride for long-suffering Nokia shareholders. With its stock price up nearly 40% the past month alone, investors are beginning to take notice of what Nokia has to offer. For a lot of us, the good tidings heading Nokia's way are long overdue. But then, not everyone was (or is) on board with CEO Stephen Elop's vision - to transform Nokia into a significant force in the smartphone industry.
    The announcement that Nokia was partnering with Microsoft to run its new mobile operating system in a new line of smartphones seems like ancient history now. Of course, it's only been a year since Elop began implementing Nokia's strategic shift and, as the last couple of months have shown, the new direction is starting to pay dividends -- literally, and figuratively.
    Playing with the big boys
    Though Apple fans will never admit it, the iPhone is under siege, and not just from Nokia. Apple's best new friend, Google , is happy to combine forces to supply Apple smartphone users with its maps app, and jointly bid $500 million for Kodak's extensive patent portfolio. That's just good business. But, even as the two industry behemoths walk arm in arm, Google is not so quietly selling a million Nexus 4 smartphone units a month, the result of its partnership with LG.

    And let's not forget the world leader in smartphone sales, Samsung. With over 55 million smartphone units sold in Q3 of this year, Samsung trounced Apple's paltry 23 .6 million. Of course, that was pre-iPhone 5, so those figures are sure to change in Q4, but you get the idea -- competition is heating up. Don't forget to include Research In Motion , which, like Nokia, saw phone sales dip last quarter, too. But, as RIM shareholders will tell you, just wait until the new and improved BB10 phones and OS are unveiled Jan . 30. RIM investors aren't waiting until next month though, evidenced by its 60% jump in stock price the past month.
    Yeah, but what about Nokia? As expected, Nokia's smartphone sales dipped in Q3, according to Gartner Research. Like Apple fans biding their time for the release of iPhone 5, Nokia customers were not-so-patiently waiting for its Windows 8 Lumia lineup in Q3. The wait's over and, if the sales results at both Amazon.com and telecom partner AT&T are any indication, Lumia's doing just fine, thank you very much.
    Often lost in the mobile phone discussions, because so much emphasis is put on do-it-all smartphones, is the fact that Nokia dominates in several international markets, generating significant sales of its entry-level touch phones, like the Asha line, and the new Lumia 620. Nokia's 82.3 million phones sold in Q3 was second only to Samsung's 98 million - and that ain't bad. Plus, the recent deal with China Mobile to supply its 700 million customers with Nokia's first TD-SCDMA compliant Windows Phone in the country won't hurt.
    Okay, but Nokia, an income investment?
    Nokia naysayers are quick to point out that its dividend, which currently stands at a whopping 6.6% yield, is at risk, and has been for some time. The problem, they say, is that Nokia's bleeding cash in every quarter as it ramps up Lumia smartphone sales, putting its industry-leading dividend yield on the chopping block. Nothing could be further from the truth. Nokia's Q3 ready cash is down from the prior quarter, true; but with over $12 billion still in reserve, the death of Nokia's dividend has been greatly exaggerated.
    On the growth side of the Nokia opportunity, there's still its 10,000 patents, estimated to be worth a cool $6 billion, and currently generating $650 million a year in revenue. And Nokia's patent revenue is likely to go up, thanks to the recent lawsuit claiming that RIM infringed on its WLAN (WiFi) technologies. Add in a profitable Siemens division (now a bit leaner after the sale of the fiber optics unit), world class mobile maps, and the fact that the company is netting $222 million with the recent sale/leaseback of its Finland headquarters, and Elop is quickly transforming Nokia into a lean, smartphone-making machine.
    As many a Fool has commented in prior articles, the sum of Nokia's parts is greater than the whole -- the whole, in this instance, being its current share price. Now, throw in a 6.6% dividend yield on top of what remains an outstanding growth opportunity. That's the recipe for one of the best growth and income additions you can make to your portfolio -- and heading into 2013, that's exactly what Nokia is.
    Nokia's banked its future on its next generation of Windows smartphones; CEO Stephen Elop has made that clear. For even more insight into the opportunity Nokia represents, take a look at Motley Fool analyst Charly Travers' new premium report that digs into both the opportunities and risks facing Nokia, to help investors decide if the company is a buy or a sell. To get started, simply click here now.

    12-15-2012 07:59 PM
  14. LikeWaah's Avatar
    So we've discussed how the Chinese mobile market doesn't subsidize much. Apparently, China Mobile is offering subsidies on the Lumia 920T.

    Nokia Lumia 920T generously subsidized by China Mobile Unwired View

    What do you guys think? Is this a shift in the Chinese market? Or is this development specific to Nokia?
    ynight and a5cent like this.
    12-19-2012 02:39 PM
  15. ynight's Avatar
    So we've discussed how the Chinese mobile market doesn't subsidize much. Apparently, China Mobile is offering subsidies on the Lumia 920T.

    Nokia Lumia 920T generously subsidized by China Mobile Unwired View

    What do you guys think? Is this a shift in the Chinese market? Or is this development specific to Nokia?
    that's clearly a big win for nokia, not much as of the chinese market is shifting(those plans are also available for other phones, we just dont know if the 920 belongs to that pool), but it indeed spells the effort china mobile will be making to push this phone to the market. Also i'm not quite so sure about the last column in the spreadsheet, it says(high end users within corporation) without explain "corporation", but my inital guess is it may be only available to the so called "big customers" i mentioned before, at least to start off. If my guess holds true, that might be a even better situation as china mobile will push 920 to those big customers really hard and we Chinese people just love to be exclusive.. Plus Nokia has the supply issue anyways...
    12-19-2012 03:12 PM
  16. ynight's Avatar
    i'm now really thinking about getting one from china...it's so much cheaper than even the US price and it's unlocked.....
    12-19-2012 03:16 PM
  17. LikeWaah's Avatar
    that's clearly a big win for nokia, not much as of the chinese market is shifting(those plans are also available for other phones, we just dont know if the 920 belongs to that pool), but it indeed spells the effort china mobile will be making to push this phone to the market. Also i'm not quite so sure about the last column in the spreadsheet, it says(high end users within corporation) without explain "corporation", but my inital guess is it may be only available to the so called "big customers" i mentioned before, at least to start off. If my guess holds true, that might be a even better situation as china mobile will push 920 to those big customers really hard and we Chinese people just love to be exclusive.. Plus Nokia has the supply issue anyways...
    What do you think about this development, in light of the belief that part of why Apple was unable to get the iPhone 5 on China Mobile was due to CM not wanting to subsidize the iPhone? I'm assuming it had more to do with the baseband required by CM (TD-SCMA) than subsidies. This move clearly indicates there are other factors as to why the iPhone 5 was not accepted by CM than just subsidies.


    What do you think ynight?
    12-19-2012 03:24 PM
  18. ynight's Avatar
    What do you think about this development, in light of the belief that part of why Apple was unable to get the iPhone 5 on China Mobile was due to CM not wanting to subsidize the iPhone? I'm assuming it had more to do with the baseband required by CM (TD-SCMA) than subsidies. This move clearly indicates there are other factors as to why the iPhone 5 was not accepted by CM than just subsidies.


    What do you think ynight?
    I actually have a friend works for china mobile that is high up enough to hear stuff. So I can share some facts regarding this. Talks between apple and CM have a long history into 2012 and the main issue still remains, which is profit sharing apple always asks. Apple demands about 30%(dont believe me on numbers tho) of the usage from iphones from carries in addition to the subsidies and that's where neither of the two parties would give in. There was a time that Apple is said to drop the 30% demand but for whatever reason they didnt have a deal. Then in the following talks, the 30% was back on table again for whatever reason. Meanwhile, CM started to get deeply involved with Androids( and now WP), they subsdies almost only Android phones in the recent years. I mentioned this for a reason that may sounds ridiculous to you that CM has somewhat a quota for its annual subsidies cost that is decided by regulators instead of themselves. So think about it financially, say CM has $100b such quota, 1) invested all 100b into andriods and WPs, make 150b in income, that 50% return. 2) invested 20b into iphones, rest into others, make the same 150b, but 30% of the 20% of the 150b goes to apple, then it;s only 41% return for CM. Of course the math gets more complicated in real life, but as long as the potential new business Apple brings wouldnt make up for the lost 9%.
    Also, while still being super popular, there're more and more alternatives now. The years of iphones are no longer, and that just makes the ideal deal for apple harder to reach.

    I'm sure there're also other issues haunting them on the deal, but for the most part, the profit sharing itself could be a deal breaker. That said, I saw some article talking about Tmobile getting iphone in 2013 and it wouldnt subsidy those iphones. If that says something about policy changing within apple, we might see a deal with CM quite soon..Althought i'm not sure it will be a good thing for Apple's return..
    12-19-2012 04:00 PM
  19. LikeWaah's Avatar
    Thanks ynight! That was most helpful. That is definitely an interesting fact, that the government has a quota on subsidies.

    Apple's insistence on profit sharing is definitely holding them back in some regards. With respect to the business world, iPhones could potentially be further accepted as a suitable BYOD, if it had Office apps available. They could, but Apple is insisting that MS share 30% of the licensing fees with them. Seems like Apple is getting to greedy, IMO. They had cornered the market originally, so it made sense to charge such premiums, but now their "dominance" is just an illusion, and thus, they cannot maintain as much of a premium as before. Only the average consumer gets ripped by Apple's pricing structure now.
    Klevis likes this.
    12-19-2012 04:08 PM
  20. ynight's Avatar
    I'm pretty sure one of the two companies announced the TD network support issue had been solved. They just couldnt reach a deal...Otherwise it should not be too much of a trouble for them to work out an Iphone5 T..
    12-19-2012 04:08 PM
  21. MaximW97's Avatar

    What do Chinese consumers think about the Apple brand?

    Fashion, luxury, but fading. We cannot maximize the iPhone experience in China due to lack of LTE, Google, Pandora, Facebook.. you name it. Data plans are very expensive too. So most people just use iPhone to play games and tweet (Chinese style, called Weibo), which WP totally can do.

    What do Chinese consumers think about the Nokia brand?

    Didn't it go bankruptcy or something?

    What do Chinese consumers think about the HTC brand?

    Exclusively for people who wants smartphones but cannot afford them.a

    What do Chinese consumers think about Huwai and ZTE, particularly in comparison to Nokia?

    NOBODY BUYS HUAWEI OR ZTE IN CHINA. At a slightly higher price you can get HTC, which sounds much younger.

    Is China really such an important market for WP8, considering the price for a WP8 smartphone, even the cheapest ones, likely cost half a months income? If so, why?

    I would say so. iPhone are not as wanted as before. As I said, we cannot get the most from iPhone in China. What drove people to buy iPhone are 1) the brand 2) the design, both of which are not as good today. And more people use Windows than Mac in China, because Mac is much more expensive than iPhone (duh), and many young people loves online games, which Mac can not suppor/handle. Nokia should really take the chance, price 920 correctly so more people, especially students, can buy it, and it will be a success.

    a5cent likes this.
    12-19-2012 09:25 PM
  22. a5cent's Avatar
    that's clearly a big win for nokia, not much as of the chinese market is shifting(those plans are also available for other phones, we just dont know if the 920 belongs to that pool), but it indeed spells the effort china mobile will be making to push this phone to the market. Also i'm not quite so sure about the last column in the spreadsheet, it says(high end users within corporation) without explain "corporation", but my inital guess is it may be only available to the so called "big customers" i mentioned before, at least to start off. If my guess holds true, that might be a even better situation as china mobile will push 920 to those big customers really hard and we Chinese people just love to be exclusive.. Plus Nokia has the supply issue anyways...
    Hey ynight, thanks again for your answers! Here are some more questions...

    The author of the unwired article states that CM is quite generous in their offering of a "free" T920 for $62 per month over two years. That amounts to a total cost of $1488, or $31 per month just for carrier services (excluding the full retail price of the T920). Considering that the Chinese can get unlimited everything plans for $25 per month, that doesn't seem like a spectacular deal to me. From what I've learned so far, I would say it's a tad on the expensive side. Am I missing something?

    If I understand you correctly, you're saying that the subsidized price is likely part of CM's effort to aggressively sell T920's to large corporate customers. This somewhat confuses me, as I suspect the upfront costs wouldn't be much of an issue for corporations. I'm assuming the lowest possible price for device + carrier service would be more important to them. Am I wrong?

    Am I correct that the "free" T920 won't make much of a difference to consumers, as the monthly rates of $62 are far too expensive?
    12-19-2012 10:03 PM
  23. ynight's Avatar
    Hey ynight, thanks again for your answers! Here are some more questions...

    The author of the unwired article states that CM is quite generous in their offering of a "free" T920 for $62 per month over two years. That amounts to a total cost of $1488, or $31 per month just for carrier services (excluding the full retail price of the T920). Considering that the Chinese can get unlimited everything plans for $25 per month, that doesn't seem like a spectacular deal to me. From what I've learned so far, I would say it's a tad on the expensive side. Am I missing something?

    If I understand you correctly, you're saying that the subsidized price is likely part of CM's effort to aggressively sell T920's to large corporate customers. This somewhat confuses me, as I suspect the upfront costs wouldn't be much of an issue for corporations. I'm assuming the lowest possible price for device + carrier service would be more important to them. Am I wrong?

    Am I correct that the "free" T920 won't make much of a difference to consumers, as the monthly rates of $62 are far too expensive?
    其他四档套餐分别为:188元套餐赠送话费2599元,每月返还108元话费;228元套餐赠送话费3249元,每月返还135元话费;288元套餐赠送话费3699元,每月返还154元话费;388元套餐赠送话费4599元,每月返还192元话费。The article is missing some details about the CM pricing and the author probably called it cheap(as i did myself) compared to US or European Pricing. The chieses lines read: for the 188yuan plan, a total of 2599 will be returned to you, 108 per month.....for the 388 plan, you get 192 back each month. So if we rule out interest(time value of money), the free phone plan actually costs 190yuan a month, about$30. So it's actually much cheaper than what the english article suggests. Now that i get the math out, it actually seems to be too cheap....omg wtf!!!.......!!!

    Your second question, the corporation thing is my inital guess, now that i've read the chinese websites on it, it's actually not big customer only, so my guess was wrong. But what i was saying is basically indicating that since right now there are truly very few subsidized phones on CM(note SG3, note 2 are both not subsidized now, SG3 was for a while, not anymore), subsidy 920, as a fact itself tells the dedication CM has on it. And unfront cost is actually a nonissue here since the big customers get to negotiate the details, so if they feel the upfront cost is ok, they can pay full ahead in exchange for a discount(note that CM paying back part of the bill is also a kind of financing). They get to choose, so whichever way suits better.

    That said, nokia does price super competitative this time with the CM deal...cheaper than I can even dream of..Now I can only hope they sort the supply issue soon....
    a5cent likes this.
    12-19-2012 11:57 PM
  24. ynight's Avatar
    im now seriously thinking of getting some from china, dump the plan to friends and family, sell the 920s to europe...
    12-20-2012 12:13 AM
  25. LikeWaah's Avatar
    I can only guess, but let's do some math. You can get a $25/mo unlimited plan, but have to pay $738 for the phone at least (are there taxes in China?). Over 24 months, that adds up to $1338. Or alternatively, you can pay $62/mo and $0 for the phone, which as you said, adds up to $1488. That amounts to an extra 11% in cost: ((1488-1338)/1338), or an monthly payment that an extra 148%/mo (62-25/25).

    Certainly, someone would be crazy to pay an extra 148% for no reason. But people do that all the time all over the world. Why? So they can have what they want now, not later.

    So the question is, how much sooner would that allow them to get the phone? Now that depends entirely on how much that person can set aside each month for the phone, but at the rate of $37/mo, it would take ~20 months for them to save up enough to buy the phone. IOW, they probably will never buy the Lumia 920, because in a year and 8 months, there is bound to be a newer phone released. Would I be willing to pay an extra 11% to be able to get the phone 20 months sooner? Yeah, I probably would.

    However, if they were able to save double that amount, at $72/mo. Would I pay an extra 11% to get it 10 months earlier? Hmm..maybe not. But even then, the extra amount, $150 would only be an extra 2 months of savings. It might be worth it to some people.

    Of course, you will eventually go up to the point where it makes no sense to buy the phone on contract, but I assume for most people, the ability to have the phone now will outweigh the premium that comes along with it.
    12-20-2012 12:39 AM
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