Predictions for the Phone Industry in 2013

[crystal_planet]

Hey all,

What are your thoughts about the upcoming year with respect to the phone o/s? Here's mine:

Android: I think they have peaked in terms of market share in 2012. Next year they won't have people move away in droves, but some less dedicated users will defect to WP 8 or BB10. As far as hardware goes, I can see some newer economy players breaking in to the phablet arena with some cheaper devices, but that's about it. Also, more and more noise is being made about Google's privacy piracy issues, but it's uncertain users will care all that much.

iOS: Apple is in a rut and if any potential "wow" changes will be made, it will be done on the o/s side, not hardware. iOS 7 should be a departure from all previous versions, but Apple has a tough stretch ahead. They can't change too radically or their user base will go nuts, if they just do some cosmetic changes to say, the icons, the press will be all over them. It's going to be a very interesting year for the kids from Cupertino.

BlackBerry: This is it. Hail Mary time. BB10 had better be stellar right out of the blocks or it won't be long before the cash runs out. It won't be enough for the diehards to upgrade their devices, they need to woo new users. It is going to be a tough sell, people are pretty gun shy of RIMM right now, and the press has done a nice job of crucifying them for the last couple of years.

Windows Phone: This one is pretty simple from a hardware perspective - keep on keeping on. The oems have brought some nice hardware to the table and people are noticing them, from lower end to premier flagships. Hopefully quad core devices will be introduced as Gen 2 devices and we can compete with Android head to head in specs. The big question will be if a Surface phone will be released. If it is, look for a nice device, but I don't think it will be the best of the best. The biggest stumbling block is apps, devs are still reluctant or even unwilling to port over the most popular apps to WP8. Microsoft can't force them, so I'd like to see some apps that break new ground that others will notice. It would be nice if for once we would see someone from the Android forum complain they don't have the same app as Windows Phone has.

 

[Giddora]

Android: I too Believe Android is at the height of it's success. Google has made a few good calls lately and as usual, they've done alot of stupid stuff during 2012. People are hard to convince when they Believe they get a hardcore phone on paper for $149 without contract though. I Believe Samsung will bring out a Note III, an SIIII and a SV during 2013 where the fourth iteration of the Galaxy will be groundbreaking and finally break the Iphone Top Sales-streak, but the rest of the market will be flooded with mid-range handsets from OEM-manufacturers who have previously only delivered parts or manufacturing capacity to the larger companies. 76% World market share on smartphones and 40% of the tablet-market.

Ios: Iphone will be released in 6 configurations during 2013. 3 high-end and 3 mid-end phones to compete on the developing markets where the Iphone has had a hard time. The marketshare will pick up a Little speed thanks to the affordable mid-end handsets which will basically just be the 5S rebranded. Ipad Mini 2 will become the biggest tablet on the market and the new, new, new Ipad will lose alot of ground on the private sector but will bring in alot of Corporate customers for Apple. Nothing remarkable will happen with the system and the smartphones will hit 16% World wide marketshare while the tablets will hit 45%.

Blackberry: Loyal customers will pick one up, but it will not be enough to turn things around. Blackberry will remain stagnant on the market and reach slim success in Canada and the northern parts of USA. World wide marketshare for Smartphones will hit 2% and there will not be a new tablet yet.

WP: Windows Blue will make desktops, smartphones and tablets one step closer to eachothers. Driver support in RT will be further enhanced and WP will move closer to it's desktop-brother. Microsoft will (unfortunately) create a notification area in the likes of Palm Pre and haters will instead begin to hate the system for not supporting 1080p (with support coming mid-late 2013). The first Quad-Core WP's will hit the market during late summer and move the needle a bit further, but only slim movements on the market. Smartphone marketshare World wide will hit 5,7% and tablet marketshare will hit 12%. Nokia will hit profitability during Q2 btw.

My numbers doesn't add up to 100% because there are still unknowns out there. (Namely Tizen and Jolla).

 

[palandri]

Since mobile technology is still growing by leaps and bounds worldwide, I think next year we'll see a lot of shortages and quality control issues. I think all the mobile factories are on overload right now to produce millions of new phones each quarter.

 

[aximtreo]

My prediction for 2013 is a bit sad. I predict that no matter what great hardware and software come to the market place, there will be people on this and many other forums that aren't satisfied. I hope not but I think I'm 100% right.

As for specific predictions:

Apple: Will continue to dominate US market at the expense of the rest of the world. They are trying in China but it is handicapped by expensive hardware to compete.

Android: I predict that there will be 500 different phones running 499 (Nexus excluded) versions of Android OS. I truly believe this will cause more of a fractured Android Market. This, along with real and severe security problems with Android will cause a bit of a loss of market share.

RiM: I think there new OS and hardware has to be the bees knees to be successful. It will be hard to get people to jump off their present bandwagon and go back to RIM.

Windows Phone: My favorite platform. I hope two things happen this year in WP8 arena. No more exclusives to one carrier and more sensible marketing to non-geek marketplace where the success of Windows Phone lies.

Now start the screaming and bashing.

 

[crystal_planet]

Apple will never deviate from their business plan - high end devices for those with deep pockets. I think they've painted themselves into a corner with that philosophy and has closed the door to other markets because of it.

Android is doing it right - a device for everyone, regardless of economic stratum. WP does this as well, but with less devices. Where they may potentially lose is with so many different handsets, fragmentation will become even more of a problem. Not to a casual user, but a power user will be alienated.

I think the days of exclusivity are largely behind us (hopefully) and oems have learned if you make a device desirable enough you won't need that crutch anymore.

BlackBerry will be the wild card.

 

[Nophix]

Apple will coast through this next iteration with minimal changes. This will cause some minor stagnation while they work on their next "holy grail" and updated UI. There won't be much this round.

Android is picking up steam, but people are getting tired of carrier bloat ware and flaky devices/updates thanks to carrier intervention. You're going to see a shift towards manufacturers who are willing to push back, and so far Samsung is the closest. Motorola may do something cool as well.

Windows Phone needs Microsoft to get serious. They need to docs major push to incentivize good developers to bring mainstream apps in, and they need to quit leaving feature out. Just now getting persistent wifi? Get real. They really need to get the update thing under control and away from carriers before they start to suffer the same fate as Android.

Blackberry is DOA. They're too little, too late. I really want to root for them, as I've always been a big fan of the hardware, but they just aren't keeping up. This is the first generation I haven't bought a Blackberry device for one of my lines.

 

[jabtano]

I'm just going to answer the WP end of things Unless they spread some high end devices out not so good in the US end however in places like India and the pacific rim WP should flourish.

 

[snowmutt]

Okay, I LOVE these threads. Can hardly wait to see how well I do this year. If anything like my sports prediction or my gut feeling on the Presidential race, you all might as well stop reading because I will be completely wrong. But, for the sake of humor:

WP: Hey, let's start with the important one. This is a simple to call yet hard to predict OS. Generation #2 of WP 8 needs to keep momentum. I think the ATIV launch will be a nice bridge into the Spring, but we need HTC and Nokia to keep the inovation and good feeling coming and other manufacturers to deliver fun devices (keyboards, small screens, phablets). Microsoft has the biggest problem: The next 2 OS updates need to be nice steps ahead in functions that iOS and Android users are used to if they want converts. The Ecosystem with Windows 8/Windows RT, XBOX movies/music/pocasts, and the current and next XBOX gaming platform has to be improved to be comprable to Apples ecosystem (which is seamless and amazing). Also, all WP8 devices from Gen 1 and Gen 2 need to get updates smoothly and with minimum problems. If those two conditions are met, I see WP 8 at 7%-10% worldwide sales by the end of the year. If not, then less then 5% and their window of opportunity will be closing. I am betting on WP 8, so I am saying 10%, which would be HUGE growth.

Android- Seriously, does ANYONE truly think the Little Green Robot loses sale?? Me, not a chance. This is simply the easiest OS to get in any form factor at any price in any carrier. Yes, their UI skins make for a buggy experince when done wrong, but they also provide a slightly fresh feel from device to device, so users can go from Android to Android without complete total boredom. I will call it 50% worldwide sales for them. But even though they sit at 60% right now, I feel that Smart phone growth is the reason why they have less %, not due to slumping sales. Android will remain #1 by a far, far margin.

iOS- Apple is what it is. I feel they have peaked. They have an amazing ecosystem of Apps, music, movies and great compatability among devices. They are about profits per device, not overall sales. And that is just a different game from what anyone else is playing. I will call it 23% for them on Mobile, and huge profits continue to roll in even as their sales start to taper off a bit.

RIM- I am going a different direction then everyone else. I think BB10 takes off to great numbers. There are something like 60 million current BB06/07 users. A large portion of those users are just chomping at the bit to get the latest BlackBerry in their hands, and are dying to prove the nay-sayers wrong. I see Q2/Q3 being very, very good for the first set of devices. Then, BB10 will need to stand on it's own two feet. It will have to prove it's worth. I like RIM's chances for a good 2013. I do not like it's chances past 2013. I do not see how RIM's corporate model keeps up with the inovation or profit levels of it's rivals. It is all mobil- no other revenue. It is all on it's own for software/hardware development. But, I can see RIM holding onto #3 position for 1 more year just due to the excitment of BB10 among their still strong core users. I am calling BB10 and BB07 sales at 12%.

That leaves 5% for other, and just for fun here is my projected finish:

Symbian (discontinued but stock still to move)
New MeeGo (sorry, I can never remeber Jolly's new/old OS name)
Tizen
Bada (discontinued but stock still to move)
Firefox OS
WebOS (Hey, I can dream)
Windows Mobile leftovers.

 

[socialcarpet]

Android: We'll see a few more "phablet" style phones in response to the surprise success of the Galaxy Note models. We will see more effort from Google to encourage more quality development, more "holo" compliant apps. I think there's a fair chance we will see a Motorola Android device.

iOS: I think Apple will cave in a little more to the tend towards larger phones and the next iPhone will be even a little bigger than the iPhone 5 and I think we will see Apple finally put that investment in Liquidmetal to use with some radical new materials used on the iPhone 6. Apple will make an iPad Mini with retina resolution and ab faster processor. It will be more expensive, but they'll continue selling the regular iPad Mini at a slightly lower price of $299 for at least another year to cover the low end.

Windows Phone: Samsung will make a reasonable effort to market and support the ATIV lineup. Nothing dramatic, but it will be more than we have seen from anyone outside of Nokia and Microsoft themselves. I base that upon the fact that Samsung has the money anger power to do it, because they recognize the opportunity Windows Phone and Win RT represent. The fact they planned a windows phone AND an RT tablet to complement it tells me they take it at least somewhat seriously. Nokia will launch a high end 920-like phone on Verizon and they will roll out a Windows RT tablet, probably 9-10", with similar design language to the Lumia 920, I would not expect to see the Nokia tablet until the end of 2013 though and that's a maybe... If Windows RT still doesn't look like it's taking off by the end of 2013, I think Nokia might get cold feet. I think we'll see a 920 successor by early fall 2013. It will be around the same size, but a bit thinner and lighter and possibly with a slightly larger screen, maybe 4.7". I think it will be quad-core and may have 2 GB of RAM as long as there are no issues with WP8 supporting the SoC. I think we'll also see Nokia sell some 820 variants on other carriers, including Sprint.

Blackberry: This is the real wild card. My opinion is that RIM has just waited too long to return to relevancy. I think there is room for 3 major platforms in the smartphone world, not 4. I don't think Microsoft is going to concede that to RIM as long as there is breath left in their bodies and Microsoft can easily outlast RIM in a war of attrition. Microsoft could subsidize windows phone if they wanted tho and RIM could never match that. I think Blackberry will make it through 2013, but they will see the world doesn't care about their phones no matter how innovative they think BB10 is and being able tho run Android apps won't save them, it will just take Blackberry longer to die, but it is going to die. By the end of 2013, the vultures will be beginning to circle RIMs patent portfolio. By 2014 it will be over. RIM may survive as a services provider or a patent licensing operation for a while, but Blackberry as a product will be over by 2014.

Symbian: Nokia will continue to make money selling Symbian phones in markets outside the U.S.

Sailfish and Firefox phone OS: Both will go nowhere, relegated to the scrapheap of forgotten obscure OSs no one ever used. Doesn't matter how good they may be, there is simply no room for them and no killer hardware to make people lust after them.

 

[jdevenberg]

My predictions

iOS: More of the same. It will remain sucessful, probably maintain 1st place in the USA now that the iPhone 4 (which is vastly superior to the 3GS and was the first iPhone worth owning IMO) is their free on contract option. That means that the iPhone is available at $0, $99, and $199 on the three largest carriers in the USA and will soon be available on T-Mobile as well (though if they will have all three price options remains to be seen). I think there is about a 30% chance that we will see a third screen size for the iPhone be available in 2013. Meaning we will have a 5S or 6 available in say, 4" and 4.5", the 5 drop down to $100 and the 4S replace the 4 as the free option.

Android: I think 2013 will be the year Android starts to lose market share. The only reason Android dominated is because, until mid to late 2012, there was essentially 0 competition in the low end of the smartphone market. Android was competeing against feature phones. Now it will have to contend with low cost iPhones on all major US carriers, low cost Windows Phone 8's on 3 of the 4 major US carriers, and Blackberry 10 phones on all major carriers. The likely cheaper keyboard BB10 phones will be a major source of competition since cheaper phones often have smaller, less responsive screens that are not as good to type on as higher end phones, so the physical keyboard could be a major selling point on the low-mid tier devices.

Windows Phone 8: Quad-Core and 1080p will be here in 2013. Competeing with Android and being ahead of BB10 will demand that it come sooner than later. I wouldn't be surprised to see it at Mobile World Congress in February or shortly there after. Hopefully, MS will bring in some of Windows 8/RT's gesture support as well as the already mostly confirmed notification center.

BB10: RIM will live or die by BB10. It looks good and I think we will see quad core and 1080p by the end of 2013 here as well.

3rd Place battle royal: I think by the end of 2013 we will know who the third player will be long term in the fight between BB10 and WP8. I don't think either will concede defeat until mid 2014 or early 2015, but by this time next year, the writing will be on the wall. Heck, the loser may even be able to make enough money in this growing market in 4th place to hang around and be a niche player in the market. I'm not sure who will win, but I firmly believe that 2013 will be the year that this fight will be decided for this generation of mobile technology.

 

[Lumis90]

Android: 4gb of ram and 2GHz processor? they can't get enough of it.
iOS: new design in iOS 7, maybe better hardware
WP: 1080p screens, maybe some new inovation in next Nokia's flagship phone?
BB10: I can't tell anything until I see the features of it