Whats it going to take to convert IPhone/Android users to Windows Phone

[socialcarpet]

Maybe that's just the message as you interpret it. Market share analysis suggests that wasn't what Google was up to.

Marketshare analysis says Google took advantage of a wide open field and got their OS on to a ton of phones that had no other option.

It has not a damn thing to do with the quality of Android. Quite frankly, the history of Windows is very similar. Microsoft turned out pure inferior crap for years and still had massive marketshare. Every Microsoft OS before XP was a laughing stock and XP wasn't all that great either and lingered way too long. It wasn't until Windows 7 that I even believed Microsoft was capable of making software that wasn't pure ****.

Marketshare has little to do with having the best product. Don't get it twisted.

 

[socialcarpet]

Let's get down to the brass tax. If a Windows "superphone" doesn't come by 2012 holiday season, it's game over. I don't believe Microsoft can gain significant market share with these substandard devices.

Even if a "super phone" does come, it will take years for Microsoft to make huge changes in the marketshare. It doesn't matter though.

It's not "game over" until Microsoft says it is. They have a ridiculous amount of money and nearly endless resources. Microsoft still dominates the desktop computing world and it's a safe bet they are going to leverage that in ways that are going to get Google and Apple's attention.

Remember the Xbox was supposed to fail too. It wasn't profitable for years. Microsoft is tenacious and they don't surrender unless they want to. No one else calls those shots for them.

Windows Phone is not going to explode into 60% marketshare in a year. It's too late for that. But you can count on it sticking around and growing steadily. Remember the smartphone market is no where near saturated yet. Not only do people buy new smartphones every 2 years, but at least 50% of the customers out there haven't even bought their FIRST smartphone. There is a vast, untapped market of people out there still on feature phones, or who've only had a crappy Blackberry curve or something. They aren't committed to the Apple or Android ecosystem yet and they are perfect targets for Windows phone.

Smartphones are such an important part of the current and future computing/internet landscape that there is no way in **** Microsoft is going to give up on them. It's not a trend like standalone MP3 players, i.e. the Zune that Microsoft can afford to just walk away from.

If Microsoft has to GIVE Windows Phones away with new PC's to get them into people's hands, they will do it. Remember where you heard that.

 

[Johnny Tremaine]

If Microsoft has to GIVE Windows Phones away with new PC's to get them into people's hands, they will do it. Remember where you heard that.

Honestly, they might just need to bite the bullet and subsidize that effort.

Supposedly Nokia, AT&T and Microsoft spent the largest marketing budget in the mobile industry, ever, to launch the Lumia devices, and they barely moved the needle. Once you rent out NYC's Times Square for a public concert, I'm not sure how much bigger you can go.

I can't see how this Fall, in the midst of the iPhone 5 and new Nexus Phone releases will change things.

Also, that metric about the number of people still on featurephones, that are a potential target for smartphones, IMO is irrelevant. I've seen that bandied about elsewhere.

But it's meaningless. You're assuming that the remaining customers who don't have smartphones, want one; some I know who still carry a dumbphone, usually older folks or teens, do so, because they either don't want to, or can't, pay for a carrier smartphone and data plan. Unless Microsoft also plans to subsidize data contracts, the cost conscious customers are a lost market, because you can bet Verizon or AT&T aren't *lowering* prices for anyone.

You're not going to get a cost conscious consumer to upgrade, by offering them a "free" or cheap smartphone.....on a $100 a month postpaid contract plan. The upfront cost for the phone is almost besides the point.

 

[nite732]

The ability to switch all my apple content to wp 8 so I don't have to purchase apps again.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

[derek533]

IMO, the biggest thing that can be done, is for Nokia to release a launch WP8 Pureview phone. Doesn't matter about anything else, the general public will see the Pureview specs, and immediately start looking at them as a possibility. The reason point and shoot cameras are still around is we all know that no cell phone can match the picture quality. With the Pureview, that goes out the window and Nokia/Microsoft could heavily market this aspect and say something to the effect of that finally, there is a device that takes high quality pictures and happens to have excellent phone qualities as well with Xbox Live online play/integration.

The actual phone sells the phone, not the OS. Add an amazing camera to a phone and market the crap out of it, and it will sell.

 

[Winterfang]

I can't imagine neither of them converting IOS is really smooth and has the apps, Android has top of the line phones and also has the apps.

Windows Phone can only get the people that are angry at android because they got awful phones like Galaxy Mini etc...

 

[Johnny Tremaine]

I actually think it's much harder to convince a user on a cheap dumbphone plan to "upgrade" to a much higher cost smartphone contract plan. The phone is almost besides the point. It's probably much easier to convert a user already on a smartphone but isn't tied too heavily into iOS or Android/Google services.

Until we get a change in the carrier subsidy model and the high data rate, there will always be a contigent of folks who refuse to pay that.

There has also been a movement, albeit a small one, but still made stories in The New York Times and Gizmodo, about people *downgrading* from smartphones to a dumbphone.

Honestly, if I could have a simple flip phone that can act as a hot spot, I could also carry occasionally an iPad or Nexus 7 tablet if I wanted to be connected. I would downgrade so quickly it would make heads spin. I really don't *need* the $80+ monthly bill from AT&T.

 

[socialcarpet]

IMO, the biggest thing that can be done, is for Nokia to release a launch WP8 Pureview phone. Doesn't matter about anything else, the general public will see the Pureview specs, and immediately start looking at them as a possibility. The reason point and shoot cameras are still around is we all know that no cell phone can match the picture quality. With the Pureview, that goes out the window and Nokia/Microsoft could heavily market this aspect and say something to the effect of that finally, there is a device that takes high quality pictures and happens to have excellent phone qualities as well with Xbox Live online play/integration.

The actual phone sells the phone, not the OS. Add an amazing camera to a phone and market the crap out of it, and it will sell.

PureView on a Windows Phone will give Nokia a massive advantage that they will be able to maintain for a while IMO. It took Nokia 5 years to develop the technology and I'm sure they patented the crap out of it. The Asian copycats will of course try to rip it off or make a cheap imitation, but I think it will still be a great selling point for Nokia for a while, at least until Samsung has managed to equip every Android phone they make with some crap knockoff imitation with a stupid name.

I think Nokia will be able to stay out front on that for at least a year though, and it will probably take more than a year before anyone has any technology that actually comes close to it.

But PureView by itself isn't going to account for more than a fraction of a point in marketshare for Windows Phone.

 

[socialcarpet]

I actually think it's much harder to convince a user on a cheap dumbphone plan to "upgrade" to a much higher cost smartphone contract plan. The phone is almost besides the point. It's probably much easier to convert a user already on a smartphone but isn't tied too heavily into iOS or Android/Google services.

Until we get a change in the carrier subsidy model and the high data rate, there will always be a contigent of folks who refuse to pay that.

There has also been a movement, albeit a small one, but still made stories in The New York Times and Gizmodo, about people *downgrading* from smartphones to a dumbphone.

Honestly, if I could have a simple flip phone that can act as a hot spot, I could also carry occasionally an iPad or Nexus 7 tablet if I wanted to be connected. I would downgrade so quickly it would make heads spin. I really don't *need* the $80+ monthly bill from AT&T.

I actually agree with you that the 50% of people without smartphones aren't going to nearly as easy to win over as the first 50%. Some people just don't want one. Price is a barrier for a lot of people too.

The point isn't that the entirety of that 50% are just waiting for the right smartphone, clearly that's not true. At the same time, it's foolish to think all of those people are going to remain satisfied with feature phones forever and that the marketshare for smartphones as a whole isn't going to increase.

The truth lies somewhere in between.

I think one area that's not been well explored is the idea of making really good feature phones. Nokia seems to be toying with it with the Asha series in other markets. But for the most part feature phones in the U.S. are all pretty uninspired junk. The other gaps are filled in by truly awful budget Android phones which are the worst of both worlds.

I'm not sure where, or if Windows Phone has any room to exploit that, but maybe.

I think the lines between feature phones and smart phones are going to become increasingly blurry with time though. I also think prices for mid and entry level smartphones will go down and the popularity of no contract plans is going to continue to increase.

Unfortunately I don't think the cost of data is going down anytime soon though, if anything it will probably keep going up because now the carriers are getting upset that more people are actually using more of the data they are already paying for. :dry

 

[socialcarpet]

I can't imagine neither of them converting IOS is really smooth and has the apps, Android has top of the line phones and also has the apps.

Windows Phone can only get the people that are angry at android because they got awful phones like Galaxy Mini etc...

Most Android phones are some degree of awful. Even many of the "top of the line" phones are problematic. They've gotten better, but I know at least 3 people who bought top of the line Motorola phones in the last 2 years and had terrible experiences with them

A great start would be making every Android phone a Nexus device. That's never going to happen because Google cares more about making OEM's and carriers happy than they do about their customers.

But you're right about it not being easy to convert iOS users. I think a lot of that has to do with the iPhone being good, but it also has to do with the fact that iOS is only available on one phone from one maker. So you have a population of people who have higher than average customer satisfaction already AND they are loyal not only to a platform, but a specific device.

With Android there are 1000 devices, someone might go from a Samsung to a Motorola to an HTC, so they aren't necessarily attached to one brand or device.

Based on my admittedly unscientific anecdotal evidence, only Android fan boys actually like Android. Everyone else merely puts up with it or doesn't like it. I'd say 60% of the people I know have Android phones. Out of those only 2 of them are Android fan boys, they think Google is the second coming of Christ and are in full blown delusion. The rest just kind of say "meh" if I ask if they like their phone. They have no opinion or they have complaints. They get Androids because they think there is NO OTHER CHOICE. They think my phone is interesting or strange, I don't try to sell anyone on it though. About 1/2 of them are willing to consider an iPhone, the other 1/2 don't particularly like their Androids, but they've been convinced that the iPhone is pass? and uncool or "not good" for some reason by idiot Android friends who sell them on things the Android can do which they wind up never using anyway.

As for the iPhone users, I only know of one who doesn't like their phone and is planning on getting an Android next. The rest LIKE their phones and really aren't considering anything else.

The point is I still think Android's marketshare lead has way more to do with filling the space on the shelves than it does with actually being something great that most people like.

That means that at least some of that marketshare is up for grabs. All you have to do is show people something that sucks less than Android, which isn't that hard to do.

 

[Winterfang]

Windows Phone suffer from the same problems as most Android phones because they have the same manufacturers. HTC in particular used to be pretty shoddy.

 

[Budule]

Cant speak of Apple as i dont know anybody with an Iphone but i see NO WAY of converting any of my and the wife's circle of friends/family......i sit alone playing Spades versus AI (im i overlooking it? is there not even a freaking game of spades that is MP on windows phone?.....didnt windows 95 even have that?) while they all play these cool games that me (Mr. Fancy Windows Phone as the wife likes to call me) cant.....and i heard that some are coming WAY later this year but by then they will be old news and there will be some other games that they are all on....i dont see WP ever catching up on that front....****, they are converting ME!......i mean i try to sell it "look at this" and "see how it does that" and "this is built in" and it's like "yeah thats pretty cool" as they go back to Draw Something or Pop Songs or some other VERY popular game that i cant play, the wife has even accused me of purposely getting a phone that was not able to play with hers......"just a coincidence, dear".....( i swear i didnt know)

So i guess "What it would take" , for some, would be the ability to play the same games on a windows phone that they can on there current one.....

 

[socialcarpet]

Windows Phone suffer from the same problems as most Android phones because they have the same manufacturers. HTC in particular used to be pretty shoddy.

Android's biggest problem is the Android OS itself and that is a problem no Windows Phone has.

That's why I'm here.

 

[bikerrich]

Eh

I don't know. I gave up a perfectly fine android phone (mytouch 4g) to try wp7 (lumia 710) about two weeks ago. Mainly because I'm a Nokia fan and missed the feel of a Nok handset since I gave up symbian for android. However, having gone from sym to android, I thought I was finally in the space age. Now having gone to wp7 I feel is small step backwards because the apps just aren't there; all the google stuff I use is either not available, or in some wp analog that's more of a pain than it's worth. Plus the Lumia 710 which fits my hand nicely, is the most plasticky Nok I've ever owned. I like the metro UI, but the ecosystem is sorely lacking. To be more specific, no speech to text keyboard, a huge lack that, I understand, can never change on these versions; no google+; can't append to sms's with speech, it's either all or nothing; no swype; no easy google voice (that's the main problem); no Square; no flash support. It's really not ready for prime time. Even if some of this is rectified on the next iteration; so then what? I have to buy a new phone?? c'mon!! It's been a fun two weeks with the 710, but my next phone, back to android, is being delivered tmrw. I'll either have to eat the restock fee on the Lumia or try to sell it on ebay. Please, Nokia, build some of your great handsets with android. Start a new division; call it "Aikon", like toyota and lexus. Basically, I think these Lumias were a rush to market. Msft should do the right thing and give a liberal trade in for the next generation. But next time I'll look before I jump.

 

[dwayne.williams]

If you use Google stuff, why would you want to to Windows Phone?

 

[AzD]

Android's biggest problem is the Android OS itself and that is a problem no Windows Phone has.

That's why I'm here.

Well while I'm sure the Android people are distraught at your absence, ICS, and even more so Jelly Bean, are actually really good. Android improves quite a bit with each iteration. Jelly Bean in particular is as good as WP7 in stability and ease of use.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Tab 2

 

[derek533]

I don't know. I gave up a perfectly fine android phone (mytouch 4g) to try wp7 (lumia 710) about two weeks ago. Mainly because I'm a Nokia fan and missed the feel of a Nok handset since I gave up symbian for android. However, having gone from sym to android, I thought I was finally in the space age. Now having gone to wp7 I feel is small step backwards because the apps just aren't there; all the google stuff I use is either not available, or in some wp analog that's more of a pain than it's worth. Plus the Lumia 710 which fits my hand nicely, is the most plasticky Nok I've ever owned. I like the metro UI, but the ecosystem is sorely lacking. To be more specific, no speech to text keyboard, a huge lack that, I understand, can never change on these versions; no google+; can't append to sms's with speech, it's either all or nothing; no swype; no easy google voice (that's the main problem); no Square; no flash support. It's really not ready for prime time. Even if some of this is rectified on the next iteration; so then what? I have to buy a new phone?? c'mon!! It's been a fun two weeks with the 710, but my next phone, back to android, is being delivered tmrw. I'll either have to eat the restock fee on the Lumia or try to sell it on ebay. Please, Nokia, build some of your great handsets with android. Start a new division; call it "Aikon", like toyota and lexus. Basically, I think these Lumias were a rush to market. Msft should do the right thing and give a liberal trade in for the next generation. But next time I'll look before I jump.

Did you even go to a Tmobile store and play with a Windows PHone before deciding to buy it? All of your complaints are things that you would have mostly discovered after using the device for 5 minutes. Not to mention, the Nokia 710 is plasticky, but it's also not a top of the line device like a 900 or Titan. That would be like me complaining about one of Cricket's Android phones and comparing it to a Razr or OneX.

Don't get me wrong either, as a former Droid X user myself, it was a great phone for the most part and I knew going in when making the switch to a Trophy, there were going to be features that I was lacking. I was ok with that to have a smooth, fast running phone that worked as it should and was actually fun to use.

Not coming down on you either, just saying that all of your complaints are ones that could have easily been discovered by actual physical time with a device, or by quick, online research.