My biggest fear with this WP7->WP8 upgrade debacle

[Fiann]

I'm not interested in debating whether or not existing devices will be upgraded to WP8 or not. That is being done to death in plenty of other discussion threads. I'm writing this based on the possibility that there is no upgrade. My biggest concern is what happens to apps if they don't? Think about it, almost every new PC will be coming with Windows 8, to say nothing of the likely hordes of Win8 tablets and upgrades to existing PCs. Taken all together that is a huge potential user base, one likely to exceed the total of all iOS devices relatively quickly. Clearly a lot of developers, if not most, will be developing Win8 Metro apps.

We also know that, if not already compatible, most of those apps will be easily ported over to WP8 so clearly there is going to be a rather large ecosystem. WP7 apps will be compatible with WP8 but not necessarily the other way around. So where does that leave us? How many developers do you think will still develop for WP7 when they can develop for Win8 and WP8 more or less at the same time? Well, how many developers have continued developing for WM 6.5? Very very few. Unless MS releases some sort of app compatibility update for WP7.5, I think we're going to be completely screwed. Sure, we'll have the 100,000 or so existing apps but most of them will get very few updates. All of the cool new apps? We'll never see them at all. Sure, WP7 will be officially supported by MS for several more years. Doesn't mean it will be supported by developers though or that we will see any new features. It just means that we will get critical security updates and the like.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe we will all see WP8. Maybe MS will release some sort of mandatory update (i.e. one that the carriers will not be able to block, like Mango) to at least provide some app compatibility with the new apps. If not then we're all going to be well and truly screwed over. I truly hope I'm wrong, I really do, but I'm afraid I'm not.

 

[canesfan625]

I'm not interested in debating whether or not existing devices will be upgraded to WP8 or not. That is being done to death in plenty of other discussion threads. I'm writing this based on the possibility that there is no upgrade. My biggest concern is what happens to apps if they don't? Think about it, almost every new PC will be coming with Windows 8, to say nothing of the likely hordes of Win8 tablets and upgrades to existing PCs. Taken all together that is a huge potential user base, one likely to exceed the total of all iOS devices relatively quickly. Clearly a lot of developers, if not most, will be developing Win8 Metro apps.

We also know that, if not already compatible, most of those apps will be easily ported over to WP8 so clearly there is going to be a rather large ecosystem. WP7 apps will be compatible with WP8 but not necessarily the other way around. So where does that leave us? How many developers do you think will still develop for WP7 when they can develop for Win8 and WP8 more or less at the same time? Well, how many developers have continued developing for WM 6.5? Very very few. Unless MS releases some sort of app compatibility update for WP7.5, I think we're going to be completely screwed. Sure, we'll have the 100,000 or so existing apps but most of them will get very few updates. All of the cool new apps? We'll never see them at all. Sure, WP7 will be officially supported by MS for several more years. Doesn't mean it will be supported by developers though or that we will see any new features. It just means that we will get critical security updates and the like.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe we will all see WP8. Maybe MS will release some sort of mandatory update (i.e. one that the carriers will not be able to block, like Mango) to at least provide some app compatibility with the new apps. If not then we're all going to be well and truly screwed over. I truly hope I'm wrong, I really do, but I'm afraid I'm not.

Your phone is really a decepticon. All your apps will uninstall themselves and when you try to unlock your phone it will just give you a troll face. Then optimus prime will come take a robot poop on your head.

 

[mparker]

Microsoft has already indicated that pretty much all WP7 apps will run on WP8, and since they've got them all in the store and are capable of running them in their WP8 emulator to verify this, presumably they're telling the truth here.

The second issue is what happens to WP7 devices if WP8 software won't run on them. This was the situation back when Windows was split between the 16-bit and 32-bit versions; Windows 95/98/ME could only run 16-bit apps, but Windows NT 4.0, Windows 2000, XP, etc could run both 16-bit and 32-bit apps. Developers will target whichever platform meets their market requirements and provides the APIs they need. I would assume that for awhile many developers would continue to target the WP7.5 API since that would have the largest potential market, but that you would quickly see games and other demanding apps target the WP8 OS.

It's also possible (IMO likely) that WP7.x will continue to soldier on for the next five years or so as a parallel OS that is aimed at the very low cost devices. Depends on whether Nokia thinks they can take on Android with Symbian or Maemo, or if Microsoft can strip down the WP8 software stack far enough to run on those very low-powered devices.

It's also not really certain that we will see a huge surge of Windows 8 Metro apps. There will be a lot of Windows 8 systems out there for sure, but that doesn't necessarily mean that developers will be cranking out Metro apps. After all, Windows 8 on x86 will be able to run the old-style desktop apps just fine, it's just the ARM systems that require all the apps to be Metro apps. But it's still an open question how commercially successful Windows 8 will be on tablets, and it's even an open question as to whether those tablets will be ARM or x86 based. After all, Intel is anxious to take over this market as well, and their Medfield system is looking pretty good compared with the latest ARM designs and they're working on a multicore version for tablets. If Windows 8 tablets never take off then there will be no impetus for developers to write for Metro. If Windows 8 tablets do take off but those tablets include a sizeable proportion of x86 tablets then there will also be very little impetus for writing Metro apps.

 

[selfcreation]

Your phone is really a decepticon. All your apps will uninstall themselves and when you try to unlock your phone it will just give you a troll face. Then optimus prime will come take a robot poop on your head.

seriously dude... your making me do this. *shakes head*

RELATED to THREAD:

honestly if they do split up the OS ,

we might start seeing multiple marketplace like on Android depending on your OS versions
dev still develop for all the markets depending how lazy they are

 

[1jaxstate1]

Don't worry, the update will come on December 12th, 2012.

 

[canesfan625]

seriously dude... your making me do this. *shakes head*



RELATED to THREAD:

honestly if they do split it up we might start seeing multiple marketplace like on Android depending on your OS versions

dev still develop for all the markets depending how lazy they are

Can I start threads about the same thing and say that its somehow different too?

 

[selfcreation]

his concern is clearly about the APPS .. and not the update it self and he even mentions it in the first line of his post.

its a legitimate question.

And honestly new threads coming up asking if WP7 will get WP8 update are all getting merged or deleted/closed.

 

[socialcarpet]

You're probably right that new apps developed especially for WP8 probably won't run on old WP7 phones.

Lucky for you, its probably going to be at least a year until WP8 devices are actually in store shelves and it will probably be a year AFTER that until you start seeing enough WP8 only apps that it even matters. Even if you JUST signed a 2yr contract, this is a ridiculous thing to be worrying about.

Relax.

Sent from my Lumia 900 using Board Express

 

[Dave Blake]

OP You are wrong and this is why......:excl:

I don't know why!

I think we all just need to enjoy what we have now. The worst thing that could happen is we have to live with what we have. Personally I like what I have.

Lumia 900=Good
Windows Phone 7= Good
Current app selection=Good

We have like 6 months to before we even see Apollo devices that is an eternity in the world of developers. We can discuss it if you like but I say relax and enjoy the ride.

 

[reelon]

Don't worry, the update will come on December 12th, 2012.

At least it's before the end of the world hahaha

Sent from my SCH-I800 using Tapatalk 2

 

[Dave Blake]

At least it's before the end of the world hahaha

Sent from my SCH-I800 using Tapatalk 2

I think they are on the same day...lol

 

[canesfan625]

OP You are wrong and this is why......:excl:

I don't know why!

I think we all just need to enjoy what we have now. The worst thing that could happen is we have to live with what we have. Personally I like what I have.

Lumia 900=Good
Windows Phone 7= Good
Current app selection=Good

We have like 6 months to before we even see Apollo devices that is an eternity in the world of developers. We can discuss it if you like but I say relax and enjoy the ride.

You are right. This question has been answered already essentially. Silverlight is going away in name but apps that are c#, xaml, and xna will still work. If the app uses native code then probably not. Unless they change that. Everything that's not using native code is agnostic.