A BASED edition - Will Windows Phone 8 flop?

[based_graham]

iPhone has a Home it has the applications to make the general public accept it
Blackberry still has a Home with its world class enterprise features for businesses
Android has a Home which is the majority of low-end handsets

Did WP 7.5 have a home?
- It doesn't have the applications and games to satisfy everybody
- It doesn't have world class enterprise features for businesses to adopt it
- It has low end but most low end carriers don't even support it

To me that's why WP7.5 did not have a breakthrough when it came to sales. Customer reviews have been off the charts, developer support has been excellent but for the general public it doesn't give you a legit reason to buy into the platform.

A lot of people that moved to 7.5 moved because they wanted to try something new or a savy WP user convinced them to buy it. Its a great phone but there isn't that one legit reason for you to buy it over other ecosystems. Maybe price but like I said its not on every carrier.

Windows Phone 8 will change that.

For the general audience the attention will backbone off Windows 8 and Xbox's success if marketed correctly. I still don't expect crazy sales right away but I expect good sales.

WP7.5 did not have a HOME but Windows Phone 8 has a HOME matter of fact it has 3 HOMES what I mean by HOMES is a market that it can be very strong in.

With world class enterprise support Windows Phone 8 will probably be the go-to platform for businesses especially businesses that use MS products from the backend (Active Directory) to the front end (Windows PC)

With Direct X it has a home in entertaining and gaming. I don't think its going to pop off right away but with strong support like Gears Of War on your phone and other PC ports it can be a big HIT in the gaming community especially catering current Xbox gamers and hard-core PC gamers.

With Nokia and Microsoft's focus on low-end you will see more low-end pay-as-you-go Windows 8 and WP7.8 phones on other carriers. If you look at AT&T and T-Mobile sales have been good now if you take that formula and apply it to US Cellular and Verizon you can expect WP's in the top 5 when it comes to sales. Especially if Nokia gets their Lumia's as Pay-As-You-GO phones in Wallmart I can see WP having a bigger impact when it comes to low-end.

Its Sunday I felt like writing something but I wanted to prove a point people say "Oh Windows Phone 8 is going to FLOP like 7" its a totally different ball game now. If you ever need to hype up the platform focus on
1. Enterprise support with VoIP integration and better mapping
2. Games with Direct X
3. Price!

And I am sure you can convince a lot of people to try and move to the WP8 platform

Do you guys agree or disagree will the 3 main selling points be enough to make Windows Phone 8 a huge it drop down your thoughts.

Regards,

Based_Graham@twitter

 

[12Danny123]

iPhone has a Home it has the applications to make the general public accept it
Blackberry still has a Home with its world class enterprise features for businesses
Android has a Home which is the majority of low-end handsets

Did WP 7.5 have a home?
- It doesn't have the applications and games to satisfy everybody
- It doesn't have world class enterprise features for businesses to adopt it
- It has low end but most low end carriers don't even support it

To me that's why WP7.5 did not have a breakthrough when it came to sales. Customer reviews have been off the charts, developer support has been excellent but for the general public it doesn't give you a legit reason to buy into the platform.

A lot of people that moved to 7.5 moved because they wanted to try something new or a savy WP user convinced them to buy it. Its a great phone but there isn't that one legit reason for you to buy it over other ecosystems. Maybe price but like I said its not on every carrier.

Windows Phone 8 will change that.

For the general audience the attention will backbone off Windows 8 and Xbox's success if marketed correctly. I still don't expect crazy sales right away but I expect good sales.

WP7.5 did not have a HOME but Windows Phone 8 has a HOME matter of fact it has 3 HOMES what I mean by HOMES is a market that it can be very strong in.

With world class enterprise support Windows Phone 8 will probably be the go-to platform for businesses especially businesses that use MS products from the backend (Active Directory) to the front end (Windows PC)

With Direct X it has a home in entertaining and gaming. I don't think its going to pop off right away but with strong support like Gears Of War on your phone and other PC ports it can be a big HIT in the gaming community especially catering current Xbox gamers and hard-core PC gamers.

With Nokia and Microsoft's focus on low-end you will see more low-end pay-as-you-go Windows 8 and WP7.8 phones on other carriers. If you look at AT&T and T-Mobile sales have been good now if you take that formula and apply it to US Cellular and Verizon you can expect WP's in the top 5 when it comes to sales. Especially if Nokia gets their Lumia's as Pay-As-You-GO phones in Wallmart I can see WP having a bigger impact when it comes to low-end.

Its Sunday I felt like writing something but I wanted to prove a point people say "Oh Windows Phone 8 is going to FLOP like 7" its a totally different ball game now. If you ever need to hype up the platform focus on
1. Enterprise support with VoIP integration and better mapping
2. Games with Direct X
3. Price!

And I am sure you can convince a lot of people to try and move to the WP8 platform

Do you guys agree or disagree will the 3 main selling points be enough to make Windows Phone 8 a huge it drop down your thoughts.

Regards,

Based_Graham@twitter

Yea I agree with you it's almost impossible for Wp8 to fail. because there's so much potential in the platform. and the features are too good and we haven't even heard the consumer features yet and yet it's interesting alot of people lately. and carrier support. almost all US carriers are going to get a wp8 device. (sprint need to get their *** in it)

Carrier support + enterprise/consumer features + integration of three screens = alot of success

 

[eric12341]

Yup almost all carriers will be pushing it this time around. That combined with the 3 points, what's already been revealed and what's yet to be revealed will make WP8 a huge hit. Can't wait to see all the iFans,Fandroids and complainers on here feel salty.

 

[mb-dape]

I agree with you that WP8 has better chances then WP7.

It needs a good start, good developer support and it needs to be more mature then WP7.

A phone is nothing without its apps, so it up to MS to make people buy WP8 so the developers will find the platform interesting.

I also agree that if there will be WP8 devices in Androids low price segment WP8 will have a great chance to grow. Lets hope that WP8 is that scalable.

 

[theefman]

There is no guarantee WP8 will succeed, relying on the Windows 8 Halo effect likely wont be enough. Still too many "ifs" for it to take off, not least of which is getting consumers truly excited about it. Hopefully that feature is still to come.

 

[aubreyq]

WP8 will be successful but for that they need to move A LOT of phones, so the sooner they get them on people's hands, the better. I hope they have two or three SUPERSTAR phones in the fall that scream "buy me."

 

[aubreyq]

There is no guarantee WP8 will succeed, relying on the Windows 8 Halo effect likely wont be enough. Still too many "ifs" for it to take off, not least of which is getting consumers truly excited about it. Hopefully that feature is still to come.

I see what you mean. To get consumers excited about it, they have to get them excited about a specific phone first then get them hooked on the ecosystem afterwards.

 

[based_graham]

There is no guarantee WP8 will succeed, relying on the Windows 8 Halo effect likely wont be enough. Still too many "ifs" for it to take off, not least of which is getting consumers truly excited about it. Hopefully that feature is still to come.

As long as there is a home for it should be fine. Will it gain rapid sales right away probably not but once the momentum starts rolling the sales will increase.

I want to push WP in enterprise ASAP before iOS takes over. Hopefully I can pair a WP8 with a WinRT tablet for a good price

 

[based_graham]

There is no guarantee WP8 will succeed, relying on the Windows 8 Halo effect likely wont be enough. Still too many "ifs" for it to take off, not least of which is getting consumers truly excited about it. Hopefully that feature is still to come.

Also in today's age a computer a phone a tablet.. I don't think specific HW should be the selling point it should be the entire ecosystem that is how I am selling Windows over to Android and iOS users and it seems to be working

 

[socialcarpet]

Do you guys agree or disagree will the 3 main selling points be enough to make Windows Phone 8 a huge it drop down your thoughts.

Regards,

Based_Graham@twitter

Yes and no. Those factors will be key to Windows Phone 8 growing market share over time, but the truth is most average users never get anywhere near that mired in the details.

What gets the average person to buy a phone is:

-What their friends own and what their friends who know about technology recommend.
-What they think others will think of their phone, i.e. is it cool/sexy?
-What the phone looks like, how effective the advertising is.
-What kind of deal the carrier will give them.
-What the phone can do, mainly all anyone cares about here is if it has the popular apps they want.

The other factor is going to be capitalizing on people jumping ship from Blackberry. If Microsoft actually make an effort to advertise or get the word out about enterprise friendly features in WP8, they can grab up a lot of those people before they get locked into the iPhone for life.

That's about it. Nokia single-handedly turned WP 7.5 declining market share around and put WP back in the conversation.

Not because the Lumia 900 is a great phone (it is). It had little to do with the features.

It had lots to do with the fact that it's blue and looks cool and different and they ran a lot of commercials and actually put in on display in the store where people could see it.

For every one of us that bought a Lumia on features, there are probably 3 or 4 new WP users who bought it because for the first time they actually noticed there was a choice other than iPhone or Android because someone put a Smurf-blue colored phone right in the middle of the store that they had to pass on their way to the iPhones and Android.

The same will be true for WP8.

The features will probably win some nerds over, which is good, because we need the nerds like us to have them so they will recommend them to friends and so the friends are comfortable buying them.

But more than anything, what's going to sell them is sexy phones and advertising and making sure people can get whatever stupid game is all the rage at the moment, instead of a year later.

If Nokia keeps building cool looking phones that don't look like anything else out there, they keep running commercials and Microsoft and Nokia both do their part to make sure developers are on point and getting those apps out there, then it will do well.

But it's going to take TIME to build marketshare. iPhone and Android so thoroughly dominate the market now that expectations need to be realistic. We're at 3-4% marketshare right now. Don't expect 30-40% in two years. If we could get to 10% within 18-24 months that would be a victory IMO.

 

[based_graham]

Yes and no. Those factors will be key to Windows Phone 8 growing market share over time, but the truth is most average users never get anywhere near that mired in the details.

What gets the average person to buy a phone is:

-What their friends own and what their friends who know about technology recommend.
-What they think others will think of their phone, i.e. is it cool/sexy?
-What the phone looks like, how effective the advertising is.
-What kind of deal the carrier will give them.
-What the phone can do, mainly all anyone cares about here is if it has the popular apps they want.

The other factor is going to be capitalizing on people jumping ship from Blackberry. If Microsoft actually make an effort to advertise or get the word out about enterprise friendly features in WP8, they can grab up a lot of those people before they get locked into the iPhone for life.

That's about it. Nokia single-handedly turned WP 7.5 declining market share around and put WP back in the conversation.

Not because the Lumia 900 is a great phone (it is). It had little to do with the features.

It had lots to do with the fact that it's blue and looks cool and different and they ran a lot of commercials and actually put in on display in the store where people could see it.

For every one of us that bought a Lumia on features, there are probably 3 or 4 new WP users who bought it because for the first time they actually noticed there was a choice other than iPhone or Android because someone put a Smurf-blue colored phone right in the middle of the store that they had to pass on their way to the iPhones and Android.

The same will be true for WP8.

The features will probably win some nerds over, which is good, because we need the nerds like us to have them so they will recommend them to friends and so the friends are comfortable buying them.

But more than anything, what's going to sell them is sexy phones and advertising and making sure people can get whatever stupid game is all the rage at the moment, instead of a year later.

If Nokia keeps building cool looking phones that don't look like anything else out there, they keep running commercials and Microsoft and Nokia both do their part to make sure developers are on point and getting those apps out there, then it will do well.

But it's going to take TIME to build marketshare. iPhone and Android so thoroughly dominate the market now that expectations need to be realistic. We're at 3-4% marketshare right now. Don't expect 30-40% in two years. If we could get to 10% within 18-24 months that would be a victory IMO.

Agreed. I know for a fact Nokia will make really cool hardware I don't bother listing it down because everybody knows they are going to bring something crazy to the game.

 

[theefman]

I dont think you can overemphasize the importance of advertising and mindshare, IMO. I've lived in the US for just over 5 years, moved from the UK and when I left the mobile landscape was vastly different, of course.

On my trip 2 months ago what I found in stores and with people I met was that WP and Nokia were not even in the conversation when it came to phones. This is where Microsoft and its partners have to start. Doesnt matter what features your OS has, if you arent getting people talking about it and desiring it you wont get anywhere. That is actually going to take years before you reach the level of Samsung with millions of preorders for their SIII. Unfortunately the trend now is to advertise for a few weeks and then stop and somehow expect WP sales to be good. That's not the way this OS is going to grow.

 

[cckgz4]

I don't know how big the success will be but I feel like the placement of the announcement was well thought out. And in comparison to the "reactions" from bloggers and visitors, WP8 seemed to have garnered the biggest of them all

 

[12Danny123]

I don't know how big the success will be but I feel like the placement of the announcement was well thought out. And in comparison to the "reactions" from bloggers and visitors, WP8 seemed to have garnered the biggest of them all

Yea. I agree. Wp8 has gained a lot of developer interest lately. And all of interest from people.

 

[Winterfang]

I'll be shocked if it doesn't but I need that Pureview.

 

[based_graham]

I dont think you can overemphasize the importance of advertising and mindshare, IMO. I've lived in the US for just over 5 years, moved from the UK and when I left the mobile landscape was vastly different, of course.

On my trip 2 months ago what I found in stores and with people I met was that WP and Nokia were not even in the conversation when it came to phones. This is where Microsoft and its partners have to start. Doesnt matter what features your OS has, if you arent getting people talking about it and desiring it you wont get anywhere. That is actually going to take years before you reach the level of Samsung with millions of preorders for their SIII. Unfortunately the trend now is to advertise for a few weeks and then stop and somehow expect WP sales to be good. That's not the way this OS is going to grow.

Remember when Android came out nobody talked about it.

The conversations were all about iPhones VS Blackberry

When the Galaxy came out Android started to build momentum

Lets give Lumia more time and it will be in the conversation.

 

[tekhna]

Yea I agree with you it's almost impossible for Wp8 to fail. because there's so much potential in the platform. and the features are too good and we haven't even heard the consumer features yet and yet it's interesting alot of people lately. and carrier support. almost all US carriers are going to get a wp8 device. (sprint need to get their *** in it)

Carrier support + enterprise/consumer features + integration of three screens = alot of success

Do you even know what the word potential means?

"latent qualities or abilities that may be developed and lead to future success or usefulness"

Potential≠success. Just the possibility of it.

 

[based_graham]

Do you even know what the word potential means?

"latent qualities or abilities that may be developed and lead to future success or usefulness"

Potential≠success. Just the possibility of it.

What I think he means by potential is he can see a lot of people really loving this platform from the smooth, super fast experience to making all features easy and understandable for just about anybody.

WP can attract savvy business men all the way to gamers and soccer moms its a unique platform which I think a lot of people will enjoy

 

[jfa1]

MS and the carriers need to mount a massive ad campaign ala Apple before the launch date and continue it building mindshare and showing off the new features in real life situations and get the attemtion of the smartphone universe in advance and keep that campaign up and pressing for the long haul.

 

[based_graham]

MS and the carriers need to mount a massive ad campaign ala Apple before the launch date and continue it building mindshare and showing off the new features in real life situations and get the attemtion of the smartphone universe in advance and keep that campaign up and pressing for the long haul.

Exactly rumor has it they have 1 more BIG conference before the release which should answer all questions
1. When is WP8 coming out
2. How much is Surface going to cost
3. How does the Windows 8 family work together

I think its a great time for Microsoft to showcase the culture behind their products.

When I think of Apple the MAC vs PC guy always pops into my head. A young hip tech savvy dude.

When I think of Google I automatically think of a techy hipster dude with a beard

When I think of Microsoft I think of a fat guy with glasses in a suit

MS needs to change this they need to focus on young professional adults with ambition those are the people that use Microsoft products.

Also in regards to advertisements I would focus more on EXPERIENCE rather than features. Make Windows fun, joyful and simple to use so it can take away the sour Windows taste in peoples mouths.
Just a thought.