Market share and long term viability

[IrRevd]

I'm sure this has been discussed to death but I'm curious, is there a (close to) universally accepted point when a platform reaches long term viability, at least in terms of market share?

I read today that WP now has a 6% market share in Western Europe up from 4%. Clearly Microsoft and Nokia are unlikely to continue to invest highly in a platform if ling term it is stuck at 3/4% but if it reaches 10/20% market share then that may change the outlook?

For what its worth my theory about the relative failure of WP is its high price point however this appears to be changing slowly with the release of the 520/620 devices.

 

[WorzelGummage]

And that is just it. The release of affordable handsets without compromising too much on the hardware is what or should drive up WP market share. Not just in Europe, but in other developing markets. India and the far east are two such markets where MSFT and Nokia have a strong opportunity to take over from those horrible budget Android phones.

 

[o0Nighthawk0o]

That's what I don't understand. People talk about the high cost of a WP but when I went to get my new 920 I looked at the others. All 32 meg phones were priced higher than the 920. And with the trade in programs and service agreements, my 920 was free. Do more people than I think buy phones outright or are comparable androids and iPhones cheaper outside the US?

 

[iamstevie]

In business theory, there is the concept of the product life-cycle which has a massive bearing on long-term viability:



This is a very over-simplified version (there are many variations on this model), but nicely details what each phase of the product lifecycle entails.

So Windows Phone is now entering the "Growth" stage, which basically secures its long-term viability.

Essentially if a product makes it out of the "Introduction" phase to enter a period of fast growth, then the company will ramp up investment. This is why you are seeing Nokia and MS pour millions of pounds into advertisements and product placements. Its seems counter-intuitive (surely a company would spend this money in the "Introduction" phase??) but the reason behind this is that early-adopters (i.e. mobile tecchies in WP's case) are introduced to the product first. If they had disapproved, MS/Nokia would not look to invest heavily in the product - but given their approval, its believed the product will make money, so investment increases to reach the mass market and its long-term future is secured.

If you think of WP7 and the initial introduction of WP8 as being in the "Introduction" phases (informing and educating the market on this productline), you can see how they now fit into the "Growth" phase. Nokia is targeting developing markets in a bid to rapidly incrase market share; the advertising campaigns are focused on differentiating the product from Apple/Android (WP is "built around you", all the memes about cameraphones etc), there is significant investment in promotions (Man of Steel sponsorship, celebrity endorsements), and of course widespread availability of the devices now.

In contrast to Apple, who endeavoured to sponge the "Growth" phase for as long as possible (they are now entering the tailend of the maturity phase), it seems the aim for WP8 is to grow the product as quickly as possible to get straight to the maturity phase. According to the model,WP should have entered their growth phase when the iPhone 3G or iPad was released, which is when industry competition is at its peak. It therefore makes sense they are rapidly pushing the product to the Maturity phase now, as where the product becomes a cash-cow and is seen as a genuine competitor to Android/apple.

Its like being back at University...!

 

[WorzelGummage]

That's what I don't understand. People talk about the high cost of a WP but when I went to get my new 920 I looked at the others. All 32 meg phones were priced higher than the 920. And with the trade in programs and service agreements, my 920 was free. Do more people than I think buy phones outright or are comparable androids and iPhones cheaper outside the US?

In the UK the 32 GB iPhone 5 is selling for ?520 from Play.com

Play.com - Buy Apple iPhone 5 32GB Unlocked Mobile Phone (Black) online at Play.com and read reviews. Free delivery to UK and Europe!

The Lumia 920 is selling for ?382.99 from the same store.

Play.com - Buy Nokia Lumia 920 (Black) online at Play.com and read reviews. Free delivery to UK and Europe!

Now, if I was in the market for a new smartphone and didn't really know much about phones I would probably be inclined towards the Nokia mostly because of brand awareness but also the price point, especially considering the Lumia has more advanced hardware than the iPhone (QI wireless charging, NFC, Pureview camera and a bigger and more superior screen). Plus, looking at the price of the iPhone I would be thinking that Apple are over charging for what is essentially a mediocre handset.

 

[IrRevd]

Wouldn't the S3 be a more realistic comparison to the 920?

 

[tgp]

And that is just it. The release of affordable handsets without compromising too much on the hardware is what or should drive up WP market share. Not just in Europe, but in other developing markets. India and the far east are two such markets where MSFT and Nokia have a strong opportunity to take over from those horrible budget Android phones.

But we have to remember that those "horrible budget Android phones" have capabilities and features that even the best WP8 doesn't. Trust me, I've had both! They may not do it well, and they may not do it fast, and they may crash a few times, but the capability is still there. And in reality, if you pick up a budget Android phone and use it for calling/texting/browsing, chances are you're not going to encounter any issues with it and you'll have an acceptable experience with it. Mine worked perfectly until I started rooting & flashing custom ROMs. Android's market share has been steady for the last while. If users were having as horrible of experiences as these forums make it sound, they would be jumping ship. Obviously they aren't.

On the flip side, even the missing features of WP are probably things that the vast majority of consumers don't need or use. We have to remember that those of us on Mobile Nation forums are likely a little more "techy" than 99% of smartphone users.

Capabilities aside, I believe that the lower end Lumias are part of the solution. Android's market share is greatly helped by the budget devices flooding the market. Market share brings developers. If WP can gain market share, the app gap will close, which in turn will help market share even more. It's a Catch-22.

 

[WorzelGummage]

Wouldn't the S3 be a more realistic comparison to the 920?

Here you go then.

Play.com - Buy online at Play.com and read reviews. Free delivery to UK and Europe!

 

[IrRevd]

Exactly. 920 is still priced alongside S3 and while it is no doubt a great phone WP at this stage simply cant command this premium price point and expect to sell at high volume. I suspect BB will find themself in the same boat too. Surely WP needs to beat android on spec, features AND price to get over the hurdles of a poor (although) improving app choice and.untried (by most consumers) ui. Don't get me wrong i love my 520 and want WP to succeed as much anyone but don't think they can win the battle at the high end, but the mid and budget markets may be a different story.

 

[Laura Knotek]

I agree that low and mid-range devices are needed. However, I also think that high end devices are also needed.

When my contract is up next year, I expect to get the Pureview Nokia. If only budget Windows Phones are available, I'd have no choice but to go iOS or Android. Since I get my devices on contract, I never choose anything cheap. When I used BlackBerry, I used the Bold line and wouldn't have even looked at a Curve.

 

[IrRevd]

Yes high end needed but not where the growth will come from.

 

[N_LaRUE]

The biggest advantage that WP has in India is Nokia. They've always been a favorite brand. However, the issue that is happening there, from my understanding (I'm not in India), is the lack of comparable features to Android. There has been an increase in cheap Android phones in India and Nokia is slowly losing market share there as well, though the Asha range is still popular.

Making low-end hardware is a good idea. Competing against other low-end hardware that gives people what they want is the issue. I think they really need to attract the emerging markets to the platform. I believe it's the biggest chance they have of having a successful platform.

I know most people on here are happy with the WP works for them but we need to keep in mind that not everyone uses their phone the same way, especially in third world countries where wifi and unlimited data are not common.

I hope to see new features come to WP, I think it's desperately needed. Nokia has done a wonderful job with the camera, now it's up to Microsoft to make things happen for the better. Let's hope 8.1 is a good update whenever it comes.

 

[IrRevd]

What features would you suggest are missing?

 

[ttsoldier]

The biggest advantage that WP has in India is Nokia. They've always been a favorite brand. However, the issue that is happening there, from my understanding (I'm not in India), is the lack of comparable features to Android. There has been an increase in cheap Android phones in India and Nokia is slowly losing market share there as well, though the Asha range is still popular.

Making low-end hardware is a good idea. Competing against other low-end hardware that gives people what they want is the issue. I think they really need to attract the emerging markets to the platform. I believe it's the biggest chance they have of having a successful platform.

I know most people on here are happy with the WP works for them but we need to keep in mind that not everyone uses their phone the same way, especially in third world countries where wifi and unlimited data are not common.

I hope to see new features come to WP, I think it's desperately needed. Nokia has done a wonderful job with the camera, now it's up to Microsoft to make things happen for the better. Let's hope 8.1 is a good update whenever it comes.

Have you ever used a budget Android Phone? The experience is not the same as a budget Windows Phone 8 device.

It is horrendous.

 

[IrRevd]

Not on all budget Androids. HTC wildfire and Samsung Galaxy Ace were ok (and both had a flash) although as an owner of a Lumia 520 I agree the experience is much better than most budget (and even mid market) androids. That said the apl selection on those androids still gives it the edge with a large sway of consumers.

 

[ttsoldier]

Not on all budget Androids. HTC wildfire and Samsung Galaxy Ace were ok (and both had a flash) although as an owner of a Lumia 520 I agree the experience is much better than most budget (and even mid market) androids. That said the apl selection on those androids still gives it the edge with a large sway of consumers.

I rather a fluid phone experience than a wider app selection. But that's just my personal preference
Also, our app selection is growing on a daily basis, android does not seem to be getting any performance improvements.

 

[rob45]

I have read that Windows Phone is popular outside the US because consumers (wisely) don't want to pay the high prices for Apple products. Also they are not subjected to "cool" factor of Apple advertising.

 

[IrRevd]

Possibly, I could see that being so.

 

[Sekyal]

I think Android grew immensely once it was readily available on non-contract plans (pay as you go). I never considered a smartphone until that was the case as I dislike being in a contract. I wanted a Windows Phone but couldn't because none were available, until now. I'm finally on a plan that fits me with a Lumia 521. It easily bests the old ZTE Warp I had.
So I think the combination of having great high end product and accessible budget product will help WP gain market share. Well that and of course having key apps which is getting there.

 

[N_LaRUE]

Have you ever used a budget Android Phone? The experience is not the same as a budget Windows Phone 8 device.

It is horrendous.

Answer, yes I have. I still have it, I got it when my L920 bricked. It's about 1/3 the price of a 520 but has more functionality which is the issue I was pointing out. That's not to say the experience is exceptional or that it's better. It's about getting what you want. If you have the choice between a WP that cost about 2/3 more but doesn't have what you want, and a cheap Android that does why wouldn't you get it?