Analyst: "Microsoft will fail with Nokia handsets"

[Reflexx]

which doesn't change the fact that his predictions came true, it might be FUD if he was talking something without any facts or missing predictions badly but he was so damn right about everything about Nokia-MS relationship that it can't be called FUD anymore, he knows the stuff

What came true? He's making pure conjecture about all the "whys." But it's still based off of the silly idea that one man could come in and take complete control to destroy a division while all other board members remain oblivious. Truly preposterous.

He was originally predicting that Nokia would go out of business.

That's a FAR cry from selling one of their divisions and having billions of dollars in liquidity while scoring a sweet long term deal for one of their other divisions. All the while, keeping the important utility patents that a bankrupt company wouldn't have been able to keep. And of course, the largest one day value increase in the company's long long history.

So when it comes to Nokia's success as a company, it only ended up exactly opposite of what he predicted.

 

[Doohickie]

Regardless of the Nokia buyout, Windows Phone will do fine. Why? Because of increasing commonality with other Windows platforms. The whole TIles thing will become ubiquitous. Stuff like tiles have been around for a while, sure, but MS is making it the backbone of their UI and with good reason. People like it. As handset hardware gets more sophisticated, phones will become true business machines capable of running full-up version of Office and other business apps. When it comes to desktop/laptop computing, Microsoft dominates the market with usage on over 90% of laptops and desktops. As that level of computing power reaches handheld devices, people will be doing the same things on their phones and tablets. Having a unified OS that operates everywhere (or is at least highly compatible across the desktop to mobile spectrum) is why Windows will only become more prolific.

I doubt MS will make Nokia their exclusive platform; in fact I wouldn't be surprised if they spun them back off in several years. But right now they have catching up to do compared to other smart phone OSs, and having a vertically integrated enterprise will speed development. As their OS product improves, other manufactures will remain with and even jump over to the Windows ecosystem. If anything, I see a rapid decline in Android; a bust may follow their boom. But maybe not; there is still a huge market to fill (only half of U.S. consumers have smart phones; that number is sure to grow).

But there will be lots of manufacturers for Windows Phones. And the if the Windows Phone OS disappears, it will only be because it is merged with the desktop OS.

 

[Doohickie]

They're a bull in a china shop.

Which is why they can't be ignored and won't go away.

 

[fatclue_98]

Didn't bother reading because the author is not Karnak The Magnificent, therefore he has no mystical powers to see the future. Any schmuck with a WordPress account can consider his/her self as an "analyst". In the real world, that means you are a schmuck with no talents to bring to the table and can't get a real job.

 

[ChMar]

The article is made by a former nokia employee a person who is leaving in Europe is clearly pro-European and anti-American and thus anti Microsoft and everything related to microsoft. But the problem is not the subjectivism induced by his pro-European and nokia employee past history. There are many contradictions and sometimes the article contains misinformation just to make his ideas sound better. Plus some aspect about his technical analysis are completely false either by lack of knowledge or by design. Also note the ego of the writer and how many times he needs to say that he said that first he was the one and only that did that and so on.

I won't credit his blog post with too much credibility given it's subjective sympathies and it's use of false information and twisted logic.

 

[martinmc78]

Me: "Analysts will fail to publish anything remotely accurate"

 

[tgp]

Me: "Analysts will fail to publish anything remotely accurate"

And forum posters are somehow better?

 

[Reflexx]

And forum posters are somehow better?

Than the guy who wrote that article? Often, yes. Some forum posters are better.

 

[Doohickie]

At least forum posters are called on their BS before they can write that much. You may not know if the person is right or wrong by the responses on a forum, but you can at least see that there is some level of controversy. When you blog, you don't get interrupted by other bloggers, and even if you do, you can delete comments you don't like.

 

[martinmc78]

And forum posters are somehow better?

On occasion.

What I find irksome about analysts is they are paid (a lot) to think about things, then make assumptions about what they see in front of them. Their thoughts then get pushed round to the world and his wife. These thoughts then affect stock prices and by extension shareholders and onto the general public. There isn't any facts or hard truths all they do is predict what they think is going to happen and the populous reacts to them. 9 times out of 10 they are wrong. Yet they still get paid and still come back for more analysis.

In my eyes they are just as useful as a weatherman. 9 times out of 10 they are wrong as well.

 

[hopmedic]

What he's using as his citation is a poll here on WPC (http://forums.windowscentral.com/windows-phone-8/238706-do-you-have-random-battery-drain.html) with less than 100 respondents at this point.

Ah - so it's FUD. Thanks! :wink:

 

[iamtim]

Ah - so it's FUD. Thanks! :wink:

Anytime. :excited:

 

[a5cent]

And forum posters are somehow better?

I can't recall finding any of your posts worse. Lets see how you rebuttle your way out of that one! ;-)

 

[hopmedic]

My impressions, just touching on a few things...... First, as others have said, obviously a former Nokia employee with a grudge. Lost his job due to "Elop'pian" cuts, maybe? The biggest thing I see here is that anytime someone is so full of themselves ("I was the first", "I was most accurate"), I have a hard time giving any credibility to anything else they say, since they've obviously started out with lies.

Here are some quotes that I really like </sarcasm>

Can the sales of low-cost phones improve when resource-hog Windows software is shoe-horned into them? (ROFL!)

Microsoft bought Skype in May of 2011 and after that the carriers have spoken. Loud and clear. (Two years after MS-Skype, Verizon says this.)

Nokia's new MeeGo OS was so good the first handset on it, the N9 beat Apple's iPad for the best design in the 'Oscars' of design (who beats Apple in design?). (Microsoft?)

Really, I don't see Skype as a problem for carriers. I mean, aren't plans shifting to data plans? I mean I shifted plans from a family plan with unlimited data and 1400 minutes to a family plan with unlimited minutes and limited data. I know I'm not the only situation, but it seems to me that more and more, it's data they're selling, not talk. I mean, can you even talk on a phone anymore? Does Skype work without some sort of data connection? I'll have to do some testing to try that out.......

He says a lot of things that sound like they could make sense, unless you know more than what he's saying. He's not telling you that it was AFTER MS bought Skype that Verizon came out and said they were going to push Windows Phone (and they have). He's leading you to believe that Windows Phone is bloated when in actuality it requires far less computing power than Android.

He's just a sore ex-employee on a rant. Nothing to see here - move along.

 

[wustlmike19]

I hope its not true, but I don't know how much I trust Microsoft vs Nokia

 

[hopmedic]

Oh, there's a lot of truth to what he says (I'm not counting the causes that he alleges), but I'm not buying into his predictions. It's not that hard to be correct about the past.

 

[tgp]

I can't recall finding any of your posts worse. Lets see how you rebuttle your way out of that one! ;-)

Let's see, I'm trying to figure out if this is condemnation or a compliment! I'll be the first to say that I'm not a WP ******. I do like WP and I carry one. In fact, I'd wager a bet that in the last 6 months I've bought more WP devices than 95% of the posters here. I'm beginning to think I'm singlehandedly increasing the market share! And I've bought 0 Androids in that time, even though that's my first preference. My employer is a Microsoft partner, and I have a couple Microsoft certifications, if that means anything...

I do sometimes feel the some of the most ardent WP supporters go a bit beyond reality. Most users will agree WP has some catching up to do. To put down that is denial. In fact, iOS & Android have areas where they need to catch up, but overall they're more mature. I just get a bit defensive when Android is defined as laggy, buggy, crashy, virus infested, confusing (well maybe the SGS4 is!). Someone who describes Android it that way probably either:

1. Bought a device that cost <$75 off contract
2. Has never owned an Android and is basing their remarks off hearsay
   or
3. Last owned one 3 years ago

Android has come a long way in the last while. There's a reason it has nearly 80% market share.

OK, I'll get off my high horse and let's go back to, what's the title of this thread, "Microsoft will fail with Nokia handsets"

 

[uselessrobot]

This is the smartest move either Microsoft or Nokia could have made. I don't think Nokia had any gas left in the tank to jump onto yet another platform; if Windows Phone didn't work for them that was it. Over the past few years it's been the Windows Phone line that's basically kept the mobile division afloat, they were failing everywhere else.

As for Meego and Symbian and the phones running those OS's, they were technological dead ends. They might have been good operating systems with a lot of potential, but the market was such that they'd never thrive. Nokia didn't have the resources to make it happen. The only people I've ever seen who speak fondly of those operating systems have been technical people, meaning they're tinkerers by nature. Most consumers, however, don't want technical, they want something that just works. And they want apps. Those OS's were sorely lacking in that department and while Windows Phone is also at a disadvantage there is enough there that users can find most needs filled.

As for Microsoft, the tighter integration is a huge asset. This has been a huge benefit for Apple all these years. Their biggest asset enjoying total control over aspect of development. Despite missteps with the OS, it's difficult to argue that the Surface isn't a very nice piece of equipment. So it's definitely in the company to do a great job.

I think the biggest question will be, however, if Microsoft's various divisions can come together like they need to. There's been too much of an adversarial approach and not enough of a unified approach to their various offerings. The interesting thing is that I have a sneaking suspicion that Ballmer didn't support Microsoft's purchase of Nokia. I don't think it's a coincidence that he announced is resignation prior to this news. He's always been focused on the company's core offerings. So this could be a positive sign for the future of the company well beyond simply acquiring a mobile hardware division.

 

[LastBattle]

An extremely biased article.. Looking through it quickly, it just amazes me how much he've written.

 

[Desmoface]

Eh, I couldn't get past the first two paragraphs.

Steve