12-19-2013 10:24 PM
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  1. Jas00555's Avatar
    iPhone Market Share Expected to Hit 68% in the United States by 2017 - Mac Rumors

    I find this hard to believe seeing as how my 1520 alone has sold my sister, mom, and two co-workers (who all have iPhones) to get a WP, with the main reason being that they have W8, so they might as well, but I see a ton of sites reporting this as fact. Hopefully this isn't true.
    Last edited by Jas00555; 12-17-2013 at 06:02 PM.
    12-17-2013 05:44 PM
  2. fatclue_98's Avatar
    iPhone Market Share Expected to Hit 68% in the United States by 2017 - Mac Rumors

    I find this hard to believe seeing as how my 1520 alone has sold my sister, mom, and two co-workers (who all have iPhones) to get a WP, with the main reason being that they have W8, so they might as well, but I a ton of sites reporting this as fact. Hopefully this isn't true.
    It's a prediction by a so-called analyst. Probably the same nimrod who predicted 15 hurricanes for us this year. I swear these people must be paid for their "services" by an interested party.
    12-17-2013 05:59 PM
  3. Mr Lebowski's Avatar
    I believe it, Apple is...

    I saw a bunch of kids in a mall giving one of their friends a really hard time for having a 1520
    ''why u have a sidewalk in your pocket that's stupid get a iphone dude wtf ! " every kid was laughing at him.
    I bet he returns it for the iphone. Kids will be the determining factor in 2017
    12-17-2013 06:00 PM
  4. Jas00555's Avatar
    It's a prediction by a so-called analyst. Probably the same nimrod who predicted 15 hurricanes for us this year. I swear these people must be paid for their "services" by an interested party.
    maybe, but in the real world, I see a lot of iPhones. Granted, I'm at a university so my experiences may be different, but I could potentially see this happening.

    Then again, it could just be an analyst with this kind of mindset http://xkcd.com/605/
    12-17-2013 06:30 PM
  5. Mr Lebowski's Avatar
    iPhone Market Share Expected to Hit 68% in the United States by 2017 - Mac Rumors

    I find this hard to believe seeing as how my 1520 alone has sold my sister, mom, and two co-workers (who all have iPhones) to get a WP, with the main reason being that they have W8, so they might as well, but I see a ton of sites reporting this as fact. Hopefully this isn't true.
    maybe, but in the real world, I see a lot of iPhones. Granted, I'm at a university so my experiences may be different, but I could potentially see this happening.
    Then again, it could just be an analyst with this kind of mindset xkcd: Extrapolating
    See it's up to the kids to decide, it will happen
    12-17-2013 06:46 PM
  6. Jas00555's Avatar
    Yeah? What's your point? I find it hard to believe, but I could see it happen. I never said it was likely. A couple of months ago, I would find it hard to believe that MS would start the developer preview, but it still happened.

    Edit: I typed that before you edited with a comment at the bottom, when I saw it, it was just quotes.
    12-17-2013 06:50 PM
  7. Mr Lebowski's Avatar
    Yeah? What's your point? I find it hard to believe, but I could see it happen. I never said it was likely. A couple of months ago, I would find it hard to believe that MS would start the developer preview, but it still happened.

    Edit: I typed that before you edited with a comment at the bottom, when I saw it, it was just quotes.
    No offence taken here, no offence given. I just see it as up to you guys in University -you all will decide - I think.
    The kids I saw in the mall hated the 1520 they thought is was "a sidewalk" it was so big -"get a iphone dude wtf"
    12-17-2013 06:55 PM
  8. fatclue_98's Avatar
    maybe, but in the real world, I see a lot of iPhones. Granted, I'm at a university so my experiences may be different, but I could potentially see this happening.

    Then again, it could just be an analyst with this kind of mindset xkcd: Extrapolating
    No doubt there's a s**tload of iPhones out there. I just have a hard time seeing another 10% of share in only 4 years. Unless Samsung ditches Android for Tizen and Nokia stops shipping budget 520/521s, I just don't see it. Even the Moto G is going to have an impact on sales numbers.
    Editguy1900 likes this.
    12-17-2013 06:59 PM
  9. Jas00555's Avatar
    No offence taken here, no offence given. I just see it as up to you guys in University -you all will decide - I think.
    The kids I saw in the mall hated the 1520 they thought is was "a sidewalk" it was so big -"get a iphone dude wtf"
    idk dude, that seems like a small minority of people who would say that to someone. I get "is that a phone?!" a lot (as do Note 3 owners), but no one has ever mocked me for it. What age group were these kids in?
    12-17-2013 07:45 PM
  10. Mr Lebowski's Avatar
    idk dude, that seems like a small minority of people who would say that to someone. I get "is that a phone?!" a lot (as do Note 3 owners), but no one has ever mocked me for it. What age group were these kids in?
    14-16 yr olds I would guess, I kinda liked the sidewalk description, it made me laugh.
    12-17-2013 07:54 PM
  11. ohgood's Avatar
    iPhone Market Share Expected to Hit 68% in the United States by 2017 - Mac Rumors

    I find this hard to believe seeing as how my 1520 alone has sold my sister, mom, and two co-workers (who all have iPhones) to get a WP, with the main reason being that they have W8, so they might as well, but I see a ton of sites reporting this as fact. Hopefully this isn't true.
    Three years from now anything can happen. Just ask Microsoft or RIM about that.


    Today ... right now.... Samsung is king.
    12-17-2013 07:59 PM
  12. cckgz4's Avatar
    Oh well
    12-17-2013 11:19 PM
  13. Editguy1900's Avatar
    I teach at a high school. There are a lot of cracked screen iPhones. But there are also a lot of Android phones and I'm also seeing Windows phones. As to the large screen, most kids think it's cool. I've also seen quite a few Galaxy Notes. Unfortunately, some of them keep believing that the next iPhone will be large. I don't believe Apple makes bold moves like that. Predictions like that are meaningless. Some of these same analysts were saying that Apple's stock price would be over $1000 a share this year. It's going to have to rise rapidly in the few days that are left for that to happen. Personally, I expect Android to continue to dominate. But I also think Windows phone is poised to grab a larger share. Time will tell. The problem is that no one ever calls these guys on their failed predictions. Two years ago it was predicted that T-mobile USA would either be sold off or out of business by the end of 2012. And here they are gaining customers. These analyst have the same bias problems that we all do and it comes out in their predictions.
    12-18-2013 01:03 AM
  14. Coreldan's Avatar
    Huh..? Doesn't iPhone have like.. 30% marketshare atm and it's only declining?
    jlzimmerman likes this.
    12-18-2013 03:04 AM
  15. dznk's Avatar
    Huh..? Doesn't iPhone have like.. 30% marketshare atm and it's only declining?
    You'll find there are different percentages reported by different tracking companies. I think it is around mid-thirties to 40% area, but it is rising in the US apparently. In several other countries and Europe as a whole, iOS is declining. It's crazy the amount of iPhones that are actually sold in the US. Apple must make quite a large chunk of it's profits from the US alone. In fact Apple don't actually need high marketshare or sell nearly as much as other brands because they have such a ridiculously high markup on each unit they sell.


    At the moment, I can't see Apple taking 68% in the US. I can see them gaining some more marketshare in the US, but not to that extent. I can't see Android being knocked off the top spot for many years to come, especially worldwide. This is where WP is in a tricky little spot, because as more people currently own Smartphones than ever before, they need to not only attract users who are still coming from older feature phones and Blackberry's, but they also need to pinch some people away from iOS or Android. If this prediction of 68% is anywhere near the truth, WP will be in trouble in the US, as you would still expect Android to be in second place, which would leave little room for WP. I just can't see that many Android owners moving over to iOS, or most of the new smartphone users picking an iPhone, when there are cheaper alternatives available, which is why I can't see this prediction coming true. Just because a product is currently rising in marketshare, doesn't mean it keeps rising. You just know that if iOS does somehow manage to get this high, you'll have 'analysts' who will predict 80-90% by 20xx. Many of these predictions end up being false.
    Citizen X likes this.
    12-18-2013 05:46 AM
  16. tgp's Avatar
    You'll find there are different percentages reported by different tracking companies. I think it is around mid-thirties to 40% area, but it is rising in the US apparently. In several other countries and Europe as a whole, iOS is declining. It's crazy the amount of iPhones that are actually sold in the US.
    Yes you're pretty close on the iPhone's US market share. Interestingly enough, just a year or so ago Android overtook the iPhone in US market share. I'm not sure where the reasoning for the big gain comes from. And I've heard that WP's gain mostly comes from either new smartphone users or iPhone users, not Android users. Taking all this into consideration, I don't see it happening.

    Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk
    dznk likes this.
    12-18-2013 09:17 AM
  17. Citizen X's Avatar
    I believe it, Apple is...

    I saw a bunch of kids in a mall giving one of their friends a really hard time for having a 1520
    ''why u have a sidewalk in your pocket that's stupid get a iphone dude wtf ! " every kid was laughing at him.
    I bet he returns it for the iphone. Kids will be the determining factor in 2017
    The typical smartphone user isn't a "kid" with an iphone. "kids" with iphones are RICH. Don't dare do that American BS of calling rich people "middle class." The top selling Windows Phone is the 520. You could have picked up that phone up for $50 with no contract. The people buying that phone are not interested in the iphone. Or they had an iphone that broke and got a 521 to finish out their contract or to use while they save up more money to give to Cupertino.



    You are right that peer pressure definitely drives Apple's market share. How else can you explain the fact when the Lumia 900 with LTE and a larger nice screen was being given away for free the iphone 4s with no LTE was selling for $199?

    In fact Apple don't actually need high marketshare or sell nearly as much as other brands because they have such a ridiculously high markup on each unit they sell.
    This is what a lot of people never seem to understand. I would much rather be apple than Samsung. Andriod's market share is full of low end orphan phones that can't run the latest OS. Apple's stable is full of premium handsets. Even their low end handsets are just former premium handsets that Apple devotees still buy years after they've been rendered obsolete. Why oh why would you go on contract with at&t and pay for all that expensive data... and then not even take advantage of their LTE network? Just so you can look cool in front of your friends with an idevice? No thanks.
    12-18-2013 10:49 AM
  18. tgp's Avatar
    The top selling Windows Phone is the 520. You could have picked up that phone up for $50 with no contract.
    We often talk about the $50 Lumia 520, but it's locked to AT&T. The unlocked version, which I imagine is what's sold in the rest of the world, costs >$150 in the US. What do 520's cost in the rest of the world?
    12-18-2013 11:13 AM
  19. dznk's Avatar
    We often talk about the $50 Lumia 520, but it's locked to AT&T. The unlocked version, which I imagine is what's sold in the rest of the world, costs >$150 in the US. What do 520's cost in the rest of the world?
    Well in the UK, the 520 on PAYG typically sells for around 80-90, which is around $130-$150. My Dad bought his on PAYG and it is unlocked.
    12-18-2013 11:23 AM
  20. jmshub's Avatar
    Market analysts typically do a terrible job at predicting these things.
    dznk likes this.
    12-18-2013 11:43 AM
  21. gsquared's Avatar
    For them to hit 68% they had better come out with something revolutionary and Google stops producing Android.
    tgp likes this.
    12-18-2013 02:10 PM
  22. Mr Lebowski's Avatar
    The typical smartphone user isn't a "kid" with an iphone. "kids" with iphones are RICH. Don't dare do that American BS of calling rich people "middle class."
    I used to live in Oxnard California and it is a largely Hispanic working class town and kids aren't rich by any means and almost every kid
    -high school age- I see has an iPhone,
    They get after school jobs to get an iPhone, my 12 year old niece who's parents are working class, he's a mechanic and she's a afterschool aid live in Merced California -farm country, has an iPhone when I saw her a few months ago she proudly displayed her iPhone with a "I paid for it myself I got a job after school" Rich kids get their parents to buy them an iPhone, middle class and lower middle class kids work to get the money to buy them. I don't know where you're from but most kids I see if they have a smartphone have an iPhone. They also come pretty cheap with a contract in the USA, these kids aren't buying unlocked iPhones at full retail like iPhones are sold in the rest of the world.
    12-18-2013 04:35 PM
  23. fdalbor's Avatar
    Don't see this happening at all. They may get a few percentage points higher but the big swing is toward cheaper (but almost as functional) phones like the 520, 525, Moto G etc. Apple has been in a slight decline in most areas of the world except the US and Japan. With the rejection of the China Mobile deal the door has been shut on Apple in China at least for now; but probably forever. China is heavy toward Android because it gives its carriers more choices than the few offerings by Apple which are too expensive too boot. The US and Japan are the strongholds of Apple, but peopel see what is happening in the rest of the world and the trend is away from them, not toward them. Apple will always be around, but their hayday is gone. People are also moving away from 2 year plans that are so dominant in the US. I know when my plan is over it will be unlocked phones from now on and never on a plan again. I will go where I can get the best deal with decent coverage. Its going to take a few years; but AT&T and Verizon can see the writing on the wall. The decline in plans are also going to put a dent in the desireabiliy of getting an expensive phone if you sign up for a 2 year plan. This is also going to hurt Apple.
    12-18-2013 07:07 PM
  24. fatclue_98's Avatar
    Don't see this happening at all. They may get a few percentage points higher but the big swing is toward cheaper (but almost as functional) phones like the 520, 525, Moto G etc. Apple has been in a slight decline in most areas of the world except the US and Japan. With the rejection of the China Mobile deal the door has been shut on Apple in China at least for now; but probably forever. China is heavy toward Android because it gives its carriers more choices than the few offerings by Apple which are too expensive too boot. The US and Japan are the strongholds of Apple, but peopel see what is happening in the rest of the world and the trend is away from them, not toward them. Apple will always be around, but their hayday is gone. People are also moving away from 2 year plans that are so dominant in the US. I know when my plan is over it will be unlocked phones from now on and never on a plan again. I will go where I can get the best deal with decent coverage. Its going to take a few years; but AT&T and Verizon can see the writing on the wall. The decline in plans are also going to put a dent in the desireabiliy of getting an expensive phone if you sign up for a 2 year plan. This is also going to hurt Apple.
    I've been off-contract since '07 and have never looked back. It's a big up-front hit when you buy a phone at full price, but you don't have to get the newest phone. It's no different than buying a 6 month old car with 5000 miles on the clock. You still have the balance of the factory warranty but you saved a ton of money (especially if you switch to GEICO).
    psudotechzealot likes this.
    12-18-2013 07:36 PM
  25. tgp's Avatar
    People are also moving away from 2 year plans that are so dominant in the US. <snip> Its going to take a few years; but AT&T and Verizon can see the writing on the wall. The decline in plans are also going to put a dent in the desireabiliy of getting an expensive phone if you sign up for a 2 year plan. This is also going to hurt Apple.
    You bring up an excellent point. After AT&T's announcement of possibly reducing subsidies, I would think Apple would be worried. If AT&T goes through with it, I would think Verizon would follow. It's not hard to pay $199 or even $299 up front, but $799 will make most people gulp. And yes, you're ultimately fully paying for your phone, but it's not as noticeable when on contract. WP & Android both have decent lower cost phones, but Apple doesn't. If subsidies end, I don't see how Apple can keep up their current pace of high volume high dollar devices.
    12-18-2013 08:39 PM
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