REPORT: Arm is sensationally canceling the license that allowed Qualcomm to make chips like the Snapdragon X Elite powering Microsoft's Copilot+ PCs

[Windows Central]

Qualcomm's massive Snapdragon chip empire could be under threat with Arm Holdings PLC killing their partnership with the firm.

REPORT: Arm is sensationally canceling the license that allowed Qualcomm to make chips like the Snapdragon X Elite powering Microsoft's Copilot+ PCs : Read more

 

[chris9465]

that’s a good thing.

Copilot+ doesn't do anything.

It can’t organize photos music or emails, can’t create a music playlist.

Copilot doesn’t really do anything beyond costing more money to buy and maintain, while being a resource pig.

Glad ARM is hopefully getting rid of Copilot+

 

[fjtorres5591]

1- They will settle and the settlement will be NDA'd.
Nonetheless...
2- Intel and AMD welcome this catfight it boosts Android on x86 and casts doubts on ARM PCs and servers.
3- Android phone makers are rethinking their commitment to ARM only. even if they get their chips from other suppliers, reducing the supply of phone SOCs threatens their cost structure. Just knowing ARM can kill their supply, even if they never do it to anybody, is a risk factor to be accounted for.
4- Risk-V proponents are very happy. Google has already elevated Risk-V to the same level as ARM and now there is incentive for device makers to consider it.

They will settle.
But ARM is the biggest loser: they just torpedoed their business model of architecture licensing by proving they can cut off supply right at the source.
Talk about "cutting off your nose to spite your face".

 

[SooksVI]

that’s a good thing.

Copilot+ doesn't do anything.

It can’t organize photos music or emails, can’t create a music playlist.

Copilot doesn’t really do anything beyond costing more money to buy and maintain, while being a resource pig.

Glad ARM is hopefully getting rid of Copilot+

Copilot+ has nothing to do with Qualcomm. It's available on Intel and AMD platforms with NPUs as well.

 

[Ron-F]

ARM's designs dominate the mobile market and are making significant inroads into the server and PC markets. However, despite this widespread influence, the company isn't highly lucrative. ARM is suing Qualcomm to seek additional revenue. The case will likely be settled out of court, with the details remaining undisclosed.

 

[fjtorres5591]

ARM's designs dominate the mobile market and are making significant inroads into the server and PC markets. However, despite this widespread influence, the company isn't highly lucrative. ARM is suing Qualcomm to seek additional revenue. The case will likely be settled out of court, with the details remaining undisclosed.

There is a hard limit to their value add because to go from their IP to a finished product the licensee needs to develop the actual SOC layout (and this includes things that don't come from ARM) and then contract with a foundry and chip packaging.

And the final product is price limited because it has to compete with other licensees of the same IP for the same markets.

There is only so much money to be made and since the bone of contention is the specific design of the Elite family of SOCs that are new and depend on the immature windows on ARM PCs the market at issue is even more constrained.

Regardless of the technicalities of the license, there isn't much profit for Qualcomm to share. And it hinges on the assumption that x86 can't soon match the ARM implementations in performance/power/price proposition. That is not a certainty, especially if ARM forces a price increase on Qualcomm.

Finally, while they are likely to settle and NDA the terms, other licensees now know to expect higher fees under threat of de-licensing.

This will not end well for the ARM ecosystem.

It might be worth to keep an eye on Apple and what they might make of RISC-V.

 

[xenred]

Copilot+ has nothing to do with Qualcomm. It's available on Intel and AMD platforms with NPUs as well.

Yep, no idea how come "Copilot+" was even included in this conversation. That's just a marketing brand for PC with NPU and on-device AI specific features on Windows 11.

This story is just about ARM and Qualcomm that cancelling Snapdragon X SoC.

 

[xenred]

1- They will settle and the settlement will be NDA'd.
Nonetheless...
2- Intel and AMD welcome this catfight it boosts Android on x86 and casts doubts on ARM PCs and servers.
3- Android phone makers are rethinking their commitment to ARM only. even if they get their chips from other suppliers, reducing the supply of phone SOCs threatens their cost structure. Just knowing ARM can kill their supply, even if they never do it to anybody, is a risk factor to be accounted for.
4- Risk-V proponents are very happy. Google has already elevated Risk-V to the same level as ARM and now there is incentive for device makers to consider it.

They will settle.
But ARM is the biggest loser: they just torpedoed their business model of architecture licensing by proving they can cut off supply right at the source.
Talk about "cutting off your nose to spite your face".

Good take, this actually hurts ARM future and companies may rethink their commitment to ARM design for the future, including Apple. The effect won't be immediate but there will be a slow change and RISC-V design will just accelerate its adoption.

AMD and Intel is not concerned here and will be actually just happy, since this may be a time for them to catch up somehow and continue to dominate the market.

Qualcomm can just move on and adopt different design with RISC-V or whatever they have been working on internally.

 

[Sauceruney]

ARM are slitting their own throats with this move. Damaging the market share of their own licensed technology isn't a very smart negotiating tactic. This is on the order of WordPress' self-defeating behavior as of late.

 

[Lurking_Lurker_Lurks]

Yeah just saying, ****ing contests don't tend to end well for those foolish enough to compete.

 

[fjtorres5591]

Yep, no idea how come "Copilot+" was even included in this conversation. That's just a marketing brand for PC with NPU and on-device AI specific features on Windows 11.

This story is just about ARM and Qualcomm that cancelling Snapdragon X SoC.

AI PHOBIA is strong 'round these parts.

ARM are slitting their own throats with this move. Damaging the market share of their own licensed technology isn't a very smart negotiating tactic. This is on the order of WordPress' self-defeating behavior as of late.

Reminds me of the UNITY switch to per-install fees.
If your business model isn't generating enough revenues, trying to squeeze more money out of your customers is no guarantee they'll grin and bear it. They might choose to go elsewhere.

Captive markets don't stay captive forever.

 

[fjtorres5591]

Good take, this actually hurts ARM future and companies may rethink their commitment to ARM design for the future, including Apple. The effect won't be immediate but there will be a slow change and RISC-V design will just accelerate its adoption.

AMD and Intel is not concerned here and will be actually just happy, since this may be a time for them to catch up somehow and continue to dominate the market.

Qualcomm can just move on and adopt different design with RISC-V or whatever they have been working on internally.

Intel and AMD have to be hoping ARM neuters Windows on ARM, either by forcing Qualcomm to raise prices or by pulling the license for real.

Also, Android runs fine on x86.
So if either or both get serious about low power SOCs, it won't take them long to jump in, targetting the high end ARM markets.

 

[GraniteStateColin]

No way to know for certain what happens next, but this is ARM posturing for a negotiated solution. I don't believe that Qualcomm or Copilot PC's are in any real long-term danger. While it's possible that ARM and Qualcomm won't reach agreement without it going to court, that seems unlikely to me. And even if it does make it to court, the courts have been consistent in forcing broad core patent licensing, just ruling on the amount of the license fees, but never (or almost never) allowing the licenses to be denied.

Further, Qualcomm is a critical source of income for the IP house that is ARM: ARM depends on licensees to use their tech in order to make money and Qualcomm is a giant licensee. ARM needs Qualcomm more than Qualcomm needs ARM.

I also think this might be part of a longer-term attack on those trying to end-run around ARM's patents with Nuvia (e.g., keeping Apple as a licensee). Perhaps ARM thinks this kind of threat will create a fear of attempting such things. If so, I think they've overplayed their hand. The real message from this is that ARM is hard to work with and creates risk, and therefore we should all want alternatives. As others have said, classic case of biting off your nose to spite your face.

 

[fjtorres5591]

The real message from this is that ARM is hard to work with and creates risk, and therefore we should all want alternatives.

They're not alone in this.
NVIDIA is the leader in treating customers as serfs.

The classic example being the OG XBOX which came with discrete PC grade CPU and GPU chips to get DirectX into a console fast. The price for "fast" was selling the console at a loss early because of low volume. Once the platform was established and selling at volume, MS tried to negotiate volume discounts and NVIDIA refused.

As a result, for their followup console MS swore off discrete chips and opted for a custom SOC. Again, NVIDIA refused to help or license any part of their tech. Discrete chips off the PC parts bin or no deal.

AMD was only too happy to license their tech and do custom chips for MS. Not only did they get a 90M chip contract, they wormed their way onto the CPU side of the following 2" generations for XBOX *and* Playstation. Neither bothered to talk to NVIDIA.

Right now, NVIDIA is riding high off their "AI" focused GPUs selling as high as $40K each. Practically a captive market. For now. Because every single big datacenter customer is busy designing their own GPUs optimized for their proprietary servers. Initially they're being used to fill in demand that exceeds their NVIDIA chip supply. But as those new architectures mature there will be a tipping point where the proprietary chips can and will displace the NVIDIA chips. On price, if not necessarily peak performance.

ARM is, like NVIDIA, assuming their hold on their customers is eternal.
It isn't. They've shown their true colors and it no longer matters if they settle in or out of court or win or lose in court. Every well run company will need to plan for a potential exit from the ARM domain. Because ARM can just as easily come for them at any time.

Hubris is its own reward.

 

[Jez Corden]

1- They will settle and the settlement will be NDA'd.
Nonetheless...
2- Intel and AMD welcome this catfight it boosts Android on x86 and casts doubts on ARM PCs and servers.
3- Android phone makers are rethinking their commitment to ARM only. even if they get their chips from other suppliers, reducing the supply of phone SOCs threatens their cost structure. Just knowing ARM can kill their supply, even if they never do it to anybody, is a risk factor to be accounted for.
4- Risk-V proponents are very happy. Google has already elevated Risk-V to the same level as ARM and now there is incentive for device makers to consider it.

They will settle.
But ARM is the biggest loser: they just torpedoed their business model of architecture licensing by proving they can cut off supply right at the source.
Talk about "cutting off your nose to spite your face".

agree

 

[fjtorres5591]

That didn't take long:

Apple buying Intel?
At first it sounds unlikely because Apple is too cheap to make a massive purchase like that. (And unless Khan is gone, FTC will go ballistic.)

However...

It makes so much sense even scrooge would open his purse:
1- Apple is too dependent on TSMC for their chips. If China moves on Taiwan that'll be a double whammy, regardless of how fast they build up manufacturing in India and Vietnam.
2- intel has first dibs on the next gen of super advanced chip lithography machines.
3- intel controls x86 and through it one of the choke points of Windows hardware.
4- x86 runs Android just fine so it stands to gain share as a fallback to ARM.
5- intel is only third in GPU architectures but they're improving and working hard on NPUs
6- Apple switches architectures at the drop of a hat so instead of ARM being able to threaten them, they can threaten to bolt if they don't like their terms. Or if they like total vertical integration.
7- The entire WinTel market would be very uncomfortable.
7a- To add to the fun, for decades every time intel got "uppity" with MS, they would mutter about buying AMD and the partnership would get back on the same page. MS might feel forced to pull the trigger this time.
7b- Sony would be very very uncomfortable.

Just the thought is popcorn worthy. Enough to spark a three-way bidding war between Apple, MS, and Samsung. Maybe others might be tempted to jump in...

Weird that Intel ended up here.