Why Windows 12 (probably) isn’t happening this year

[Windows Central]

Will the next major Windows OS update be branded Windows 12? I don't think so. This is why.

Why Windows 12 (probably) isn’t happening this year : Read more

 

[taynjack]

A very good analysis. Thank you for this write up. Microsoft is a huge company with a huge user base. That ship takes a great deal to turn. While I loved Windows 11 with all the new features all at once, my parents still complain about it. I wonder if small changes are easier for the masses to swallow than large changes all at once.
It seems the fragmentation issue is also hitting Android? The smartphone manufacturers have to promise ever longer update schedules because people are staying with their devices much longer, because they still function well. Unlike in the beginning of smartphones, where hardware was slow to catch up to the software leaps. That isn't an issue anymore.
In both smartphones and computers, it's a natural expectation that when you replace the device, things are going to change and be new. To wake up to a bunch of new changes to an existing device is jarring to many people. (My daughter hated her latest android update) Computers are similar to other appliances like washing machines, or refrigerators. They can easily last 10-15 years or more. With computers lasting far longer than previous versions and now smartphones lasting far longer than they used to, Microsoft would be wise to adapt their software to this new hardware reality. Meet people where they are.

 

[naddy69]

^ Agree with this.

Not to mention the mess that was the first few years of Windows 10. The twice-a-year major updates was just way too much for anyone to keep up with. Of course, businesses did not have to put up with any of that.

 

[JoaoMXN]

A very good analysis. Thank you for this write up. Microsoft is a huge company with a huge user base. That ship takes a great deal to turn. While I loved Windows 11 with all the new features all at once, my parents still complain about it. I wonder if small changes are easier for the masses to swallow than large changes all at once.
It seems the fragmentation issue is also hitting Android? The smartphone manufacturers have to promise ever longer update schedules because people are staying with their devices much longer, because they still function well. Unlike in the beginning of smartphones, where hardware was slow to catch up to the software leaps. That isn't an issue anymore.
In both smartphones and computers, it's a natural expectation that when you replace the device, things are going to change and be new. To wake up to a bunch of new changes to an existing device is jarring to many people. (My daughter hated her latest android update) Computers are similar to other appliances like washing machines, or refrigerators. They can easily last 10-15 years or more. With computers lasting far longer than previous versions and now smartphones lasting far longer than they used to, Microsoft would be wise to adapt their software to this new hardware reality. Meet people where they are.

Exactly. It seems to be, from a Microsoft point of view, way more beneficial to increment the current Windows (either 11, 12 in the future etc) with small updates and optimizations than changing almos yearly and getting a lot of complaints from the masses and companies.

 

[xenred]

Tbf its fine if they don't have a major Windows version brand release as long as they can bring quality and reliable updates. Though maybe they really need to abandoned versioning of Windows like 10 or 11 or 12, but make it just Windows and just have some marketable branding for each yearly updates.

Though that already will feels like macOS and having Windows version releases anyways. But the difference is there isn't a major Windows release that will make you feel outdated not upgrading to one.

If you think about it, things like Android versions, iOS/iPadOS versions are on constant yearly updates, but its not like not too drastically different between them unless there is indeed major feature or UX changes.

 

[Arun Topez]

Microsoft is back to over-complicating things. Panos was right to attempt to simplify Windows releases just like Apple does, now they're undoing it. This is a common problem when people are too technical or too corporate and don't understand their users, there needs to be a good balance to ensure even the most new user can understand easily. They should keep it simple with the OS itself named "Windows" or "WindowsOS" and then every Major Update name should be "Windows 11", "Windows 12", etc. while the minor updates can be 12.1, 12.5, etc. depending on how big the update is. Fragmentation is rarely an issue with Windows since people/companies who are hesitant to update usually would usually update every other update, the main reason it was an issue with Windows 11 was because of the nonsense requirements to actually get the update, many people wanted to update but couldn't. It really doesn't need to be this complicated. If competitors are able to do this, there's no reason why Microsoft can't. It's mainly because of their over-complicated licensing and naming structure (which I've personally heard from people who work at their resellers say their customers often say too).

 

[bradavon]

Great article, thanks.

If Microsoft could do that with Windows, Microsoft would never have to worry about fragmentation again. Windows, as a service, updated every week or month with something new here and there, for "the lifetime of the device" you purchased. That's Microsoft's dream goal, in my opinion.

They already tried ths wih Windows 10 and it just led to Windows starting to look irelevant. Google has Android too so can affford for ChromeOS not to be the focus.

 

[bradavon]

Windows Feature Updates are basically like MacOS versions.

The difference is Apple gives each version a snazzy name so they come across like new products.. You can do small yearly updates without making each one a major release, so major headache.

 

[naddy69]

Also we need to remember that Windows 11 is just over 2 years old. Windows 12 coming out so soon would be an admission that Windows 11 is a failure on the same scale as Windows 8.

 

[bradavon]

Also we need to remember that Windows 11 is just over 2 years old. Windows 12 coming out so soon would be an admission that Windows 11 is a failure on the same scale as Windows 8.

Prior to Windows 10 , Windows releases were always 3 years apart. So not it wouldn't.

 

[xenred]

Windows Feature Updates are basically like MacOS versions.

The difference is Apple gives each version a snazzy name so they come across like new products.. You can do small yearly updates without making each one a major release, so major headache.

Yep, its basically semantics at this point. Every feature updates is basically like new macOS versions but with just marketable names.

Microsoft should just do that instead since technically its all the same feature update under the hood.

Its much easier to communicate that lets say you have Windows 11.5 with fancy title along with it than explaining what the heck 23H2 even means when it's still called Windows 11. Its more confusing for your average joe getting their head around it, even for more tech savvy it just sounds weird to begin with.

Might as well we simplify it and called it the way we traditional thing of OS versioning. Only difference is we have yearly free upgrade cycle.

 

[bradavon]

Yep, its basically semantics at this point. Every feature updates is basically like new macOS versions but with just marketable names.

Microsoft should just do that instead since technically its all the same feature update under the hood.

Its much easier to communicate that lets say you have Windows 11.5 with fancy title along with it than explaining what the heck 23H2 even means when it's still called Windows 11. Its more confusing for your average joe getting their head around it, even for more tech savvy it just sounds weird to begin with.

Might as well we simplify it and called it the way we traditional thing of OS versioning. Only difference is we have yearly free upgrade cycle.

Exactly.

Part of the problem is people do install MacOS versions.

But IT departments don't routinely. They're very entrenched in the view a new Windows version means a whole new install base because that's how it's always.

Just releasing 24H2 but calling it Windows 12, then the same with Windows 13 next year, makes a load of sense.

Microsoft would need to be very specific with the marketing that these are updates not new OS versions.

Even then IT departments are still always several Feature Updates behind so it would create fragmentation.

 

[naddy69]

"Prior to Windows 10 , Windows releases were always 3 years apart."

"Always", except for the 5 years between XP and Vista, and the 6 years between 10 and 11.

Yes, there were several quick releases following major failures. XP came 1 year after ME, because ME was horribly unstable. 7 came quickly after Vista when it was obvious that Vista was bloated, slow and was going nowhere (failure) and XP needed to be retired. 8 was way too much change too quickly, so it went nowhere (failure). 10 came quickly after 8 so 7 could be retired. 10 is still in use because 11 is too different and too demanding of hardware.

So, in reality, businesses went from XP to 7 (around 9 years of XP), then from 7 to 10 (around 8 years of 7). Now we have 8 year old Windows 10 that is still the mainstream. That covers the last 23 years of Windows.

The point is, no one is in any rush these days to jump into new versions of Windows.

If 12 comes along this year, then 11 is history. Businesses will then be back in wait and see mode, to see how 12 pans out. Which means a few more years of 10 being the mainstream. Which Microsoft does not want to see.

 

[dharmababa]

Everything that is old is new again. Sounds exactly like the Windows 10 strategy.

It was hinted at but the real problem with Windows 11 was the TPM 2.0 requirement. If they didn't require that hardware, it could easily have been pushed to all Windows 10 users for free and the "number" changing would have been largely irrelevant.