How many cores does a smartphone need?

[a5cent]

Dont forget the HTC "Zenith"! ... I remember all the rumours about the specs of the HD7 that were disproved when it was eventually released, and so many were disappointed and vowed not to buy WP because they were "betrayed". Probably going to happen all over again this year. :dry

I'm afraid you may be right. There are tons of rumors flying around right now, and many will take them at face value simply because they want to believe them. I'm no marketing expert, but I'm convinced the WP community is smart enough to understand Microsoft's decisions... if Microsoft would just finally explain them!

Microsoft has always made it very clear that platform standardization is very important to them:

Windows Phone 7 brings all the advantages of a standardized platform and a consistent developer experience to the Microsoft platform

source: Chapter 1 - Introducing Windows Phone 7

The Windows Phone Application Platform, like most platforms, will continue to evolve over time, but its goal will always be to deliver:
- Richer applications, developed for a highly standardized platform.

source: Application Platform Overview for Windows Phone

A platform that promotes hardware variance so large, that it tolerates a varying number of CPU cores, is not a platform anyone would call standardized. Microsoft has great reasons for this strict standardization, but they just aren't telling anyone. Frustrating!

I think things got out of hand when Microsoft stated WP8 can support up to 64 cores. While that is true, it doesn't say anything about the hardware Microsoft certified for use with WP8.

 

[sinime]

42 is the answer you seek.

 

[a5cent]

42 is the answer you seek.

lol, should have known... I truly think Apple will rebrand itself as Sirius Cybernetics Corporation at some point. Then they will start integrating Siri into everything including doors.

 

[lippidp]

I need as many cores and RAM as possible so I can run as many virtual machines as possible. If I can place only a phone in my server rack and hook it up to the SAN somehow just think how much money I will save!!!

 

[snowmutt]

I prefer to read Microsoft's strategy papers and understand their policies concerning their cooperation with hardware manufacturers. Microsoft has stated that the only SoC currently certified for WP8 is the Qualcomm Snapdragon S4 Plus. Take a look at Qualcomm's high-level specifications for that SoC... you will notice it is a dual core SoC:

Snapdragon? Processors | All-in-One Mobile Processor | Qualcomm

Unless I am unaware of a recent policy change, there is no snowflakes chance in **** of any quad-core WP8 device coming out any time soon... that includes the Samsung Odyssey.

From a technical standpoint, that is the most reasonable thing to do. It may not be the best marketing arrangement.

Finally, if some WP8 devices had two and others four cores, WP would loose many of the advantages it currently has over android. This would mark the beginning of major hardware fragmentation in the WP ecosystem. This should be prevented at all costs. Microsoft understands this very well. So far they have made many tough decisions in the interest of keeping hardware and software fragmentation low (virtually non-existant). Although possible, it is unlikely Microsoft will start changing these policies now.

What you are saying makes sense, and I do not doubt your research. I appreciate you sharing it with us.

HTC released it's roadmap for WP 8 immediatly after the WP 8 announcement. And it also was released as a Quad-core on the Zenith. I feel you are correct, and this will be a dual-core when it comes out. But so far no further updates on it.

HTC Windows Phone 8 roadmap leaks out

 

[a5cent]

And it also was released as a Quad-core on the Zenith. I feel you are correct, and this will be a dual-core when it comes out. But so far no further updates on it.

HTC Windows Phone 8 roadmap leaks out

What I also find strange/suspicious is that for two of HTC's devices the SoC's are precisely named:

HTC Rio = Qualcomm MSM8227
HTC Accord = Qualcomm MSM8260A

Both of these are dual-core Qualcomm S4 Plus SoC's. When it comes to the HTC Zenith however, no site has published anything beyond: "it will be a quad-core device"... even though there are just two quad-core S4 Pro SoC's to choose from.

I could be wrong, but getting a quad-core device certainly would be a major departure from the approach Microsoft has taken to platform standardization up until now. I hope they don't f*** WP up and stick to their principles. They are really good, even if Microsoft has been terrible at explaining them (they never tried).

 

[PG2G]

I think you're going to see your platform standardization go away sooner than you'd think. You can't reach both the high and low end (which Nokia desperately needs) if you're relying on a very fixed hardware platform. There will need to be a place for single, dual, and quad core phones in the Windows Phone ecosystem. Unless Microsoft keeps 7.x alive for the low end, but that would be a bad move.

In addition, Qualcomm won't be the exclusive provider for much longer. Windows Phone is in NVIDIA's roadmap, long-time Nokia partner ST-Ericsson is coming, and i'd be very surprised if Samsung wasn't allowed to use their own SoC around the same time.

 

[a5cent]

I think you're going to see your platform standardization go away sooner than you'd think.

It's not my standardization policy... I'm just quoting Microsoft's publications and judging by their past behavior (although I'll admit that isn't a 100% accurate way of predicting the future).

You can't reach both the high and low end (which Nokia desperately needs) if you're relying on a very fixed hardware platform. There will need to be a place for single, dual, and quad core phones in the Windows Phone ecosystem. Unless Microsoft keeps 7.x alive for the low end, but that would be a bad move

Yes. However, Microsoft & Nokia have already jointly stated that they will be releasing NEW WP7.x devices for some time to come. Both the WP8 and WP7 platforms will co-exist, just as PS2 and PS3 gaming consoles co-exist. I don't see any problem with that approach. Why do you think that would be a bad move? Anyway, that takes the issue of cheap WP8 devices off the table... there won't be any (at least not anywhere close to the sales price Nokia is targeting for China and India). For that Nokia will be using WP7.x

In addition, Qualcomm won't be the exclusive provider for much longer. Windows Phone is in NVIDIA's roadmap, long-time Nokia partner ST-Ericsson is coming, and i'd be very surprised if Samsung wasn't allowed to use their own SoC around the same time.

Picking one SoC and then "custom tailoring" WP to make perfect use of that single hardware platform was a great tactic. It is what made WP7 feel so fast on 2009 era hardware. What exactly do we gain by changing that recipe? It only puts WP at a disadvantage compared to iOS!

I know NVIDIA and Samsung will get their chips into W8 tablets. That makes sense. However, I haven't heard anything official about any of their SoC's getting certified for WP8. Have you? All I've heard is that Qualcomm is Microsoft's ONLY official WP8 hardware launch partner. That may imply that other partners are yet to come, but it could also imply the opposite:

Microsoft Announces First Windows Phone 8 Hardware Partners, Qualcomm SoC Inside [Update: MSM8960]

Anyway, Samsung's smartphone and semiconductor divisions are very isolated from one another... they are almost separate companies. They actually put their semiconductor unit through bidding war's and many examples exist where their smartphone division chose a competing SoC over one of "their own". To sum up, if Samsung needs to build WP8 devices with Qualcomm SoC's, and they can earn money doing so, they will do it.

Finally, ST-Ericsson has said over a thousand times that they will supply chips for WP. It started back in 2010. Maybe this time there is actually something to it, but I'm not holding my breath. I think ST-Ericsson is grasping at straws. That is all they have left now that Nokia isn't using their products to the extents they once did and they have no other way to placate their shareholders other than releasing these rumors.

I'm not saying you're wrong. I just don't think the evidence currently points in that direction. Wait and see I guess...

 

[scottcraft]

I think you're going to see your platform standardization go away sooner than you'd think. You can't reach both the high and low end (which Nokia desperately needs) if you're relying on a very fixed hardware platform. There will need to be a place for single, dual, and quad core phones in the Windows Phone ecosystem. Unless Microsoft keeps 7.x alive for the low end, but that would be a bad move.

In addition, Qualcomm won't be the exclusive provider for much longer. Windows Phone is in NVIDIA's roadmap, long-time Nokia partner ST-Ericsson is coming, and i'd be very surprised if Samsung wasn't allowed to use their own SoC around the same time.

Hopefully Microsoft will allow high and low end phones while keeping some platform standards. I do think they will loosen up on some stuff though.

 

[snowmutt]

I think you're going to see your platform standardization go away sooner than you'd think. You can't reach both the high and low end (which Nokia desperately needs) if you're relying on a very fixed hardware platform. There will need to be a place for single, dual, and quad core phones in the Windows Phone ecosystem. Unless Microsoft keeps 7.x alive for the low end, but that would be a bad move.

In addition, Qualcomm won't be the exclusive provider for much longer. Windows Phone is in NVIDIA's roadmap, long-time Nokia partner ST-Ericsson is coming, and i'd be very surprised if Samsung wasn't allowed to use their own SoC around the same time.

Long term, you are 100% correct so long as Microsoft is serious about challenging for #1 OS. How many Androids are activated a day now? There is no way WP could come close to Androids production depending on 1 supplier. Simple math.

However I do agree with @a5cent that WP 8 at launch, and most likely through next year, will use one supplier and chipset.

Except for Nokia and their low end Tango devices. Haven't they already recieved approval from MS for using a lower end chip?

 

[a5cent]

Except for Nokia and their low end Tango devices. Haven't they already recieved approval from MS for using a lower end chip?

Nope.

 

[PG2G]

Yes. However, Microsoft & Nokia have already jointly stated that they will be releasing NEW WP7.x devices for some time to come. Both the WP8 and WP7 platforms will co-exist, just as PS2 and PS3 gaming consoles co-exist. I don't see any problem with that approach. Why do you think that would be a bad move? Anyway, that takes the issue of cheap WP8 devices off the table... there won't be any (at least not anywhere close to the sales price Nokia is targeting for China and India). For that Nokia will be using WP7.x

I have seen nothing suggesting that they will continue to release WP7.X devices outside of those that have already been announced. Nokia has suggested that they will continue to support their users with updates, but there hasn't been anything to suggest that 7.8 isn't the end of the road.

There is also nothing suggesting that existing devices aren't powerful enough to handle WP8. In fact, they've said existing devices could run it but it'd just be a lot of work.

Continuing the 7.X branch alongside the 8.X branch is a terrible idea because they are effectively two different operating systems without app compatibility. iOS and Android devices will have compatibility between low and high end devices, it'd be foolish to expect to have any success without also meeting what is a pretty basic requirement.

I know NVIDIA and Samsung will get their chips into W8 tablets. That makes sense. However, I haven't heard anything official about any of their SoC's getting certified for WP8. Have you? All I've heard is that Qualcomm is Microsoft's ONLY official WP8 hardware launch partner. That may imply that other partners are yet to come, but it could also imply the opposite:

Nothing official. NVIDIA had this on their roadmap

No real word on St-Ericsson in a while, this was the last as far as I know

Geneva, Switzerland, November 2, 2011 - Nokia has selected ST-Ericsson as a supplier for future devices it plans to introduce based on the Windows Phone mobile platform.

 

[a5cent]

How many Androids are activated a day now? There is no way WP could come close to Androids production depending on 1 supplier. Simple math.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. How many suppliers do you think we have today? We actually only have two (not including ST-Ericsson which has become irrelevant)... all smartphone SoC's are either produced by Samsung (Apple, Samsung) or TSMC (TI, NVIDIA, Qualcomm).

Of all these companies, Samsung is the only one with the ability to fabricate their own designs. All the others outsource that.

Both Samsung and TSMC could supply the entire world with all the smartphone silicon we need... entirely on their own... given a years notice in advance of course.

 

[PG2G]

We're actually in the middle of a shortage of the Snapdragon S4 right now

 

[a5cent]

We're actually in the middle of a shortage of the Snapdragon S4 right now

Yes, but we aren't talking about shortages in general here. We are talking specifically about production capacity. The shortages you mentioned are due to process problems and yield issues. TSMC planned capacity to match the contracts they had in the pipeline. Unfortunately, their production lines aren't running as smoothly as they had hoped. Expanding capacity to compensate for all the defects simply isn't economically feasible. The only option TSMC has, is to get the kinks out. Until then, the shortages aren't going away.

Like I said, production capacity isn't the problem, even though chip-designers currently only have two options. The only issue is that TSMC couldn't deliver the quality they promised soon enough.

I'll get to your other post tomorrow. I'm tired. Thanks for the feedback though!

 

[MrBurrrns]

What I also find strange/suspicious is that for two of HTC's devices the SoC's are precisely named:

HTC Rio = Qualcomm MSM8227
HTC Accord = Qualcomm MSM8260A

Both of these are dual-core Qualcomm S4 Plus SoC's. When it comes to the HTC Zenith however, no site has published anything beyond: "it will be a quad-core device"... even though there are just two quad-core S4 Pro SoC's to choose from.

I could be wrong, but getting a quad-core device certainly would be a major departure from the approach Microsoft has taken to platform standardization up until now. I hope they don't f*** WP up and stick to their principles. They are really good, even if Microsoft has been terrible at explaining them (they never tried).

AFAIK there is only one quad core S4 Pro chip - the APQ8064. So I think you are right and they are going to go with the dual core MSM8960T. The APQ8064 also does not include the modem, but who knows... Maybe we'll see some european/us variants with different chips used...

 

[PG2G]

AFAIK there is only one quad core S4 Pro chip - the APQ8064. So I think you are right and they are going to go with the dual core MSM8960T. The APQ8064 also does not include the modem, but who knows... Maybe we'll see some european/us variants with different chips used...

If its using the APQ then itd probably use a separate modem. There is an Android phone coming this fall doing that, existing WP LTE phones are doing it as well because there is no S2 with integrated LTE modem.

Im still not sure I buy that HTC rumor, but it seems like its cone from multiple places. They were also the only ones to push to 1.5 GHz in the last round, so I guess we'll wait and see

 

[a5cent]

AFAIK there is only one quad core S4 Pro chip - the APQ8064.

You are right. Qualcomm offers two S4 Pro chips, but only the one you mentioned, which is intended for use in tablets, is actually a quad-core. I assumed too much.

Im still not sure I buy that HTC rumor, but it seems like its cone from multiple places. They were also the only ones to push to 1.5 GHz in the last round, so I guess we'll wait and see

For all the reasons we’ve discussed so far, I’m calling BS. I hope I won’t have to eat my words later...

There is also nothing suggesting that existing devices aren't powerful enough to handle WP8. In fact, they've said existing devices could run it but it'd just be a lot of work.

Yes, I know. For the past six months I’ve been trying to explain to German enthusiasts exactly that. It was a relief when Microsoft finally said so themselves. But why are you bringing this up?

Continuing the 7.X branch alongside the 8.X branch is a terrible idea because they are effectively two different operating systems without app compatibility. OS and Android devices will have compatibility between low and high end devices, it'd be foolish to expect to have any success without also meeting what is a pretty basic requirement.

But they are compatible! WP7 apps run perfectly well on WP8. Just the opposite doesn’t work, but that doesn’t work anywhere! W7 apps don’t run on XP. PS3 games don’t run on PS2. iOS 5 apps don’t run on iOS3 etc. etc. etc.

90% of all apps simply don’t need WP8 hardware. Developers will continue to target those apps at WP7.5.x which will also run on WP8. Developers making really fancy stuff and high-end games will obviously target WP8, but if that is what you’re into you will be getting a WP8 device anyway, so no problem there either. Since WP 7.5.x will be around for quite some time (more on that later), the WP7 app market won’t be drying up anytime soon.

I’ll go out on a limb and say this isn’t half as terrible as you think. We’re just not used to thinking about the smartphone market in this way because Google and Apple do it differently. What basic requirement is getting violated exactly?

No real word on St-Ericsson in a while, this was the last as far as I know

Yeah, I saw that too. Anyway, like I said, ST-Ericsson has “cried wolf” so many times since 2010, that I just ain’t buying it any longer... at least not until I see the wolf myself (an ST- Ericsson powered WP device).

If ST-Ericsson gets involved, it will be restricted to supplying SoC’s for WP7.5.1 (Tango) based devices. Nothing else.

Hopefully Microsoft will allow high and low end phones while keeping some platform standards. I do think they will loosen up on some stuff though.

IMHO, Microsoft has already done precisely that!

There is only one thing left Microsoft rigorously standardizes... the SoC (CPU and GPU). Microsoft must do this so developers know what performance characteristics their apps may rely on. Thanks to SoC standardization developers can optimize their apps for that specific hardware platform... that can make a huge difference... particularly in games. Finally, it also makes testing a hundred times more effective and much less costly, which should result in higher quality apps (on average) compared to android.

In all other regards, OEM’s can do more or less whatever they want. Low end WP8 devices will come with smaller screens, lower resolution displays, smaller batteries, cheaper materials, lower quality cameras (or none at all), less RAM, no SD card, etc, etc, etc. Higher end devices should have the opposite.

What I’m saying is that Microsoft has already found the right balance between flexibility and standardization. Fail to standardize that one last and most important thing... the SoC... and we can basically forget about standardization and "look forward" to becoming as fragmented as android is.

I have seen nothing suggesting that they will continue to release WP7.X devices outside of those that have already been announced. Nokia has suggested that they will continue to support their users with updates, but there hasn't been anything to suggest that 7.8 isn't the end of the road.

Well, consider this: Microsoft spent a good part of 2011 and much developer effort and treasure on WP7.5.1 (Tango). Most of the effort was made on Nokia’s behalf. For us Westerners, Tango was an uneventful, boring update to WP7.5. However, Tango is actually a new branch off of WP7.5... its own OS if you will. App developers now explicitly target either: WP7.5 (Mango), WP7.5.1 (Tango) or WP8 (Apollo), each of which place different restrictions on what hardware resources apps may or may not use. Microsoft also re-engineered large parts of their backed services to support these low end devices. But how many Tango based devices have come to market so far? Only one, the Nokia 610 (that I'm aware of). Now, how likely is it that Microsoft took all that upon themselves, a huge effort that was just recently completed, so Nokia could release just one measly device just before abandoning the WP7 line completely and jumping over to WP8?

I’m guessing we will see more Tango based Nokia’s after the first batch of WP8 devices come out. I'm also guessing you won't see any of them... unless you live in India or China that is.

I know this doesn’t prove anything. I could state that a higher-up at Nokia explained this to me, but such words are rarely worth the pixels required to display them.

Anyway, Paul Thurrott was the only credible source I could find who explains this issue in one of his older posts:

Windows Phone "Tango"

He doesn't explicitly state that we should expect new Tango devices well into 2013, but I think it can be implied. Make of it what you will.

 

[scottcraft]

Thanks for another informative post a5cent!

 

[PG2G]

But they are compatible! WP7 apps run perfectly well on WP8. Just the opposite doesn’t work, but that doesn’t work anywhere! W7 apps don’t run on XP. PS3 games don’t run on PS2. iOS 5 apps don’t run on iOS3 etc. etc. etc.

90% of all apps simply don’t need WP8 hardware. Developers will continue to target those apps at WP7.5.x which will also run on WP8. Developers making really fancy stuff and high-end games will obviously target WP8, but if that is what you’re into you will be getting a WP8 device anyway, so no problem there either. Since WP 7.5.x will be around for quite some time (more on that later), the WP7 app market won’t be drying up anytime soon.

The problem is the WP 7.X platform was hardly competitive with iOS4 and Android 2.3 when it comes to platform features and the SDK. If a majority of the apps stick to 7.X compatibility (which is what would be necessary for the WP 7.X platform to be viable) then both of the platforms are screwed.

Every day apps (foursquare, exercise apps) are going to want to use background location
Every day apps (facebook, twitter) are going to want to use lock screen notifications
Every day apps (instagram, Photosynth) are going to want to use Lenses

It isn't just a few random high end games and apps using new hardware features that need the WP8 SDK, it is the apps that we use every day. If WP 7.X is kept around developers will either have to not use any new features, they will have to have develop two versions of their apps, or WP8 will have a terrible ecosystem of apps that don't have the same capabilities as iOS and Android.

The question for you is, IF the hardware can handle WP8, why would they continue to push WP 7.X? There is no benefit whatsoever, especially when you consider that this is the same company who is going to ship an OS with apps that run on anything from a Snapdragon to an i7.

I’ll go out on a limb and say this isn’t half as terrible as you think. We’re just not used to thinking about the smartphone market in this way because Google and Apple do it differently. What basic requirement is getting violated exactly?

So, the two dominating forces in the market do it the same way but you are advocating that Microsoft go with something inferior? Sounds like a recipe for failure. The market has a certain expectation, Microsoft can't just go clean slate every two years and hope to get away with it.