1. onlysublime's Avatar
    Tech Crunch has a new article on AR and VR. Unfortunately, it's only a partial report. To get the full report costs a (gasp!) $500. Cool article:

    Augmented And Virtual Reality To Hit $150 Billion, Disrupting Mobile By 2020 | TechCrunch

    Augmented And Virtual Reality To Hit $150 Billion, Disrupting Mobile By 2020

    excerpts:

    Virtual reality and augmented reality are exciting – Google Glass coming and going, Facebook’s $2 billion for Oculus, Google’s $542 million into Magic Leap, not to mention Microsoft’s HoloLens. There are amazing early-stage platforms and apps, but VR/AR in 2015 feels a bit like the smartphone market before the iPhone.

    VR and AR headsets both provide stereo 3D high-definition video and audio, but there’s a big difference. VR is closed and fully immersive, while AR is open and partly immersive – you can see through and around it. Where VR puts users inside virtual worlds, immersing them, AR puts virtual things into users’ real worlds, augmenting them.

    You might think this distinction is splitting hairs, but that difference could give AR the edge over not just VR, but the entire smartphone and tablet market. There are major implications for Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and others.

    VR is great for games and 3D films – that’s what it was designed for. However it is primarily a living room, office or seated experience, as you might bump into things if you walked down the street wearing a closed headset. It’s still a great technology with a ready and waiting user base of tens of millions among console, PC and MMO gamers, those who prefer 3D to 2D films, as well as niche enterprise users (e.g. medical, military, education). This has attracted a growing apps/games ecosystem around early players like Unity, Valve, Razer and others.

    AR is great fun for games, but maybe not as much fun as VR when true immersion is required – think mobile versus console games. But that possible weakness for gamers is exactly why AR has the potential to play the same role in our lives as mobile phones with hundreds of millions of users. You could wear it anywhere and do anything. Where VR is like wearing a console on your face (Oculus), AR is like wearing a transparent mobile phone on it (Magic Leap, HoloLens).

    We forecast that AR/VR could hit $150 billion revenue by 2020, with AR taking the lion’s share around $120 billion and VR at $30 billion.

    arvr-forecast.jpg

    So where do these big numbers come from?

    We think VR’s addressable market is primarily core games and 3D films, plus niche enterprise users. VR could have tens of millions of users, with hardware price points similar to console. We anticipate consumer software/services economics similar to current games, films and theme parks, but don’t expect substantial additional data or voice revenues from VR. There could be meaningful enterprise VR revenues, but we think that AR could take more of that market.

    We think AR’s addressable market is similar to the smartphone/tablet market. So AR could have hundreds of millions of users, with hardware price points similar to smartphones and tablets. This could drive large hardware revenues for device makers.

    AR software and services could have similar economics to today’s mobile market, as they both cannibalize and grow it. A large AR user base would be a major revenue source for TV/film, enterprise, advertising, and consumer apps from Facebook to Uber to Clash of Clans. Amazon and Alibaba would have an entirely new platform for selling to a mass audience. Together with innovative applications nobody has thought of yet, AR’s scale could prove a bonanza for mobile networks’ voice and data businesses. Someone has to pay for all that mobile data.

    arvr-2020.jpg

    From the perspective of current giants, there are pluses and minuses. Facebook placed an early bet on Oculus, which might win VR but not address the larger AR market. Google learned from Glass, and had the foresight to invest in Magic Leap. HoloLens could allow Microsoft to regain the glory it lost to Apple in the last decade. And Apple? We would love to see an augmented “One more thing…”
    04-07-2015 10:08 PM
  2. VRdorado's Avatar
    I recall reading this indeed, been a few more since then, one rather fluffy one is this one from Digi-Capital.com and others by e.g. Tractica latest market report of revenue to hit $21.8 billion my 2020 so there's a lot of cash going into this space if we shall believe them. Can't link yet but if you are looking to keep track of VR news give my new site VRdorado.com a go as we aggregate the best of what's out there VR/AR wise.
    08-12-2015 03:43 PM

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