Do you think w10m is going to save windows phone?

[vipme]

Do you think w10m is going to save windows phone?

Windows 10 maybe not, but the way the carriers are changing their business model might hurt Apple and Samsung and help Windows Phone increase market share.

Thanks to the unique position of wireless carriers in the smartphone market, Apple (and to a lesser extent its rivals) have enjoyed heightened US adoption thanks to the carrier subsidy model. When smartphones first came out it wasn’t a given that everyone would jump to an expensive data plan. To drive adoption major carriers like Verizon and AT&T decided to subsidize smartphone purchases in exchange for locking customers into a 2 year contract. This model was beneficial for iPhone sales in several ways.

The overall cost of owning an expensive phone and upgrading regularly was now lower. Since the monthly data bill did not change whether you were under contract or not, all consumers were encouraged to always upgrade to the latest model as soon as possible. iPhone owners enjoyed a third perk, as iPhones on average cost more than their competitors. Since the carriers decided to make the initial contract fee $200 regardless of whether you were signing up for a $700 iPhone or $500 Android device, iPhone users were effectively being subsidized by non-iPhone users.

All of these benefits are about to end. As smartphones have gone mainstream, carriers no longer need to subsidize the phones to get users to pay for data plans. To them it doesn’t matter if you have the latest iPhone or your old phone from 2 years ago. This is why they have been moving towards a monthly installment model and Verizon, the nation’s biggest, recently announced an end to all phone subsidies and contracts. Instead subscribers can now either bring in their own phone, pay full price for a new one or go on an installment plan where they pay the full cost of the phone in monthly increments.

This move from Verizon is bad for all smartphone makers because for the first time consumers are forced to choose how much they spend on a new phone. Back when all new phones still cost $200 the incentive was to choose the most expensive option (which was almost always an iPhone) and to upgrade regularly. But now by using an old phone or choosing a cheaper one consumers can save money. Those savings occur either all up front or on a monthly basis, so the likelihood of impulse purchases of the latest and thus most expensive models will go down. If a user doesn’t upgrade at all their monthly bill will drop substantially once their existing phone is paid off, making the cost of a new phone that much more apparent.

As the dominant market leader and the company with the biggest margins Apple has the most to lose to these changing industry dynamics. Premium brands always benefit the most from an industry subsidy, but when that subsidy ends, they suffer the most. It would be one thing if Apple could counter the de facto price increase on all iPhones going forward with significant improvements, but alas the commoditization of smartphones in general means those days are behind us. Consumers are about to be asked to pay more for a phone that stands out less.

 

[a5cent]

In summary, then, you're saying the changes in W10M are primarily to make it easier to port iOS and Android apps to W10M, yes?

Yes, exactly.

I'm not too vocal about this, but I'm with you all the way on all those points, not just the summary.

The biggest risk involved in all this is that of most WP devs walking out on WP entirely. Every WP app developer I've spoken to is waiting for Islandwood or Astoria. If they prove to work as advertised, devs will contemplate deriving their WP app from iOS or Android and trashing their WP efforts.

If most developers go with Astoria, this would signify not only the death of apps that abide by WP standards (i.e. use native WP features to their fullest), but the death of MS' universal apps vision as well, because Astoria ported apps are not universal apps. IMHO Astoria is a huge mistake that should be trashed immediately, or at least severely restricted in its use. Islandwood is a lot more interesting as the results should run on MS' UAP platform without requiring any additional runtime support/quasi-emulation like Astoria apps do.

Astoria is like a poison which will calm you if used in moderation, but is guaranteed to kill you if the dosage is too high. The risks involved here are staggering, as this involves far more than just WP. For most consumers the only thing that counts is the prospect of getting more apps on their WP devices. There's nothing wrong with that, but balancing the needs of consumers with those of Microsoft's entire ecosystem will be difficult.

 

[nycny]

Hoping for it. I have been a stalwart endorser of Windows Mobile way back to the Cassiopeia days. Who on this board has an idea what I am taking about? Most of you are too young.
Some will choose to be ugly with my choice. I am choosing to leave. I should have left when most everyone on XDA moved to Android.
I could have kept hacking and cracking. I just wanted an OS that works, without all the extra.
I chose to stay. Windows mobile 6.5 cancelled.
Windows Mobile 7.0 cancelled. Windows Mobile 8, as good as all the others, about to be cancelled.
As in the beginning, I am looking for an OS that just works. Considering this history, Windows 8.1 just works and it's about to be retired again.
Need to get off the roller coaster.

 

[Keith Wallace]

No, I don't. At least, it won't for a long time. Microsoft's not even going to finish the OS before it launches, and the hardware is basically the bare minimum necessary to call the things "flagship" devices. These 950 siblings will not be commercially successful, with the best hopes being the Surface Phone (if it handles x86 software) and the 2016 ARM devices (if the Android and iOS compilers are out by then). I can't see W10M "saving" WP when we don't even know what kind of OS we'll end up with yet, let alone the degree of software support from third parties.

 

[paulxxwall]

Apple will again sell millions of iPhones in weeks time! No w10 will only save tab and desktop nit phones mr Rubino said himself! How will ms catch to the competition now is a mystery to him.....and to the world. But differences is 97% of the world already knew it was a mystery!

 

[Krystianpants]

Only the OEMS can save windows phone. If they flood the market with phones, people will see them everywhere and buy them. Just like they did for android. The only difference is that Windows mobile will provide people with the latest software like Apple as it will be in Microsoft's control. At least that's what they have said in the past.

 

[slivy58]

Only the OEMS can save windows phone. If they flood the market with phones, people will see them everywhere and buy them. Just like they did for android. The only difference is that Windows mobile will provide people with the latest software like Apple as it will be in Microsoft's control. At least that's what they have said in the past.

You were dreaming again weren't you LOL.

 

[Visa Declined]

Only the OEMS can save windows phone. If they flood the market with phones, people will see them everywhere and buy them. Just like they did for android.

Android filled in for the people who were unable to purchase an iPhone. Whether it was because the iPhone was unavailable on their carrier(Verizon: Droid Does!) or simply because they couldn't afford an iPhone to begin with. Android was in the right place at the right time, it was the every mans iPhone, and all the OEM's jumped on board because Google was giving it away for free.

Sure, flooding the market with Windows Mobile devices would help, but you've got to convince OEM's to do that first. Some device makers have already done trial runs in the past, and very little success was to be found.

When it comes right down to it, most of the smart phone buying world has already picked a team, and Microsoft has a tough battle ahead if they want to cause serious disruption. If Microsoft cannot build a successful phone themselves, don't expect OEM's to give it an honest effort either. Microsoft needs to design an awesome phone that really takes off, but I'm not so sure that can happen.

 

[etrosce]

Definitely not. In fact, Windows Phone does not longer exist as a brand. I don't even understand why did they get back to "Mobile" branding due the bad reputation with which "Windows Mobile" left the market before Windows Phone in late 00's.

I know you are referring to the phone OS itself, no matter the branding, but I think Microsoft is just trying to fill a gap on their device offering with W10M. They have already resigned in the "fight" against iOS and Android... You know... If you can't beat them...

Of course, I think Microsoft could make it even worst if they don't release a decent version of the OS. On the other hand, only if they do a brilliant work with W10M, and other OEMs jump in, there may be some future.

I'm not feeling that confident now with the platform... but I hope to be wrong as I have always been a supporter (and user) of this third alternative in the market. I think it deserves a chance, but I don't think Microsoft did enough to deserve it.

 

[EspHack]

hahaha, no. what will save it is co-developing it with the main desk OS so it is the same with phone friendly UI so it stops being a burden for ms, selling downloadable roms just like they sell dvd-usb copies of normal windows so I can install-flash it in whatever device I like, preferably they keep making precious powerful lumias ^^

in short:

*make it just like main desk OS

 

[mariusmuntean]

Nope. never in a million years.

 

[Tony Clegg]

I really like my Lumia 925, but can't see Win 10 saving the range. It's not the OS, as it's stable, and I don't have any issues with it. There are many things that need fixing before it's general release and should bring back Office and resolve map issues.

The main problem isn't the OS and it's features, it's the apps - or should I say lack of. There are very few new apps available and have to resort going back to my iPad for some things. I won't go back to an iPhone though, and would be great if there is an integration so that Android apps will work on the OS and become available via the Store.

 

[slivy58]

I really like my Lumia 925, but can't see Win 10 saving the range. It's not the OS, as it's stable, and I don't have any issues with it. There are many things that need fixing before it's general release and should bring back Office and resolve map issues.

The main problem isn't the OS and it's features, it's the apps - or should I say lack of. There are very few new apps available and have to resort going back to my iPad for some things. I won't go back to an iPhone though, and would be great if there is an integration so that Android apps will work on the OS and become available via the Store.

I'm not finding the lack of apps to be the only problem, it is the whole package that fails as of late not to mention the frustrations when, lets say, Windows phone 8.1 update 2 didn't materialize for "every" handset, it added some small but welcomed features but just like Denim, it was a crapshoot as to who was going to get it, MS's approach has woefully declined in the last year+ and it is like they are tossing coins to see what their next move(s) will be... Sorry but they ain't new to the business so there are no excuses.

I had high hopes for WP and W10M but yesterday's Apple Event highlighted the facts as to how far behind we really are, you can dis them (the big "A") all you want but the reality of it all is that they delivered, MS keeps saying they are going to but it never materializes and if it does, we end up with another "Denim like" fiasco. The thing is time is a wastin and technology waits for no one, I once was a BB fan but they too fed us lies, deceit and could never deliver, me, I jumped ship and to this day they still have not recovered, in my opinion MS is doing the same thing of sorts w/WP and W10M, if people think a few new handsets along with an new OS will be the saviour just use BB as an example and tell me if it worked for them.

 

[Krystianpants]

Android filled in for the people who were unable to purchase an iPhone. Whether it was because the iPhone was unavailable on their carrier(Verizon: Droid Does!) or simply because they couldn't afford an iPhone to begin with. Android was in the right place at the right time, it was the every mans iPhone, and all the OEM's jumped on board because Google was giving it away for free.

Sure, flooding the market with Windows Mobile devices would help, but you've got to convince OEM's to do that first. Some device makers have already done trial runs in the past, and very little success was to be found.

When it comes right down to it, most of the smart phone buying world has already picked a team, and Microsoft has a tough battle ahead if they want to cause serious disruption. If Microsoft cannot build a successful phone themselves, don't expect OEM's to give it an honest effort either. Microsoft needs to design an awesome phone that really takes off, but I'm not so sure that can happen.

Yes but they have tried one or two small time devices while the android devices were overshadowing them. MS needs to put marketing into it and all the oems have to release AT ONCE which would be an event MS plans. Because 1 device hiding within 50 others is not going to get noticed. But if there's more windows phone devices people at least see that it's good enough for it to be a high prospect investment for the oems.

A hypothetical scenario. If OEMs drop android and only start putting out windows phones, which phones do you think people will buy? Either go to iphone or use windows. They hold quite a lot of power. Granted, that wouldn't happen. Even if Windows got priority during device releases and say had 3-4 months exclusivity for every OEM release before they released a new android device.

It just shows they have the power to shift the balance. It's just for all of them it's a big gamble seeing how they are already profiting from android. And the ones currently releasing don't seem to be taking it very seriously. OEMS can take this time to innovate designs. A lot of them are scared to move away from designs that sell for them but with Windows phone they can play around and do some really nice designs. Do something that catches peoples' attention.

 

[N_LaRUE]

Umm, I do have ownership if only a smidgen, where do you think most of the money I doled out for WPs went, into thin air? MS isn't where they are today because investors thought they'd throw in some money just for the hell of it, they invested because MS has/had good ideas and products that would sell, and who bought those products, you and I along with millions of others, so yeah, I do believe those that "supported" MS over the years do have a say because "WE" made them what they are today.

Unless you are an investor (i.e. stock holder) you do not have any ownership at all. You're a consumer of a product. Yes MS needs customers but in the grand scheme of things WP users are a small percentage of that.

MS is where it is today due to it's ability to win over companies and become the main provider of an OS, server software and an Office suit. They pushed their way to the top and gained trust in those companies to do things right. Without companies and only relying on consumers MS would be a lot poorer. Significantly poorer.

So stop patting yourself on the back like you're the reason MS is doing so well. Since W8 MS lost a lot of ground and respect from companies and many refused to upgrade to it. They're hoping to change things with W10 and their focus is company centric. Which is why the Start menu is back and it's desktop focused. WP should have been geared to companies when it came out. MS should have stuck to their strong points but didn't. That's why it's all messy now. Instead they thought they could be the new Apple and failed miserably.

So by all means. Complain if you want but you don't seem to get it. MS changed it's focus back to software. It's money maker. Because that's what investors want them to do. W10M is part of W10 OS which is how it's being 'saved'. If it weren't for that I highly doubt MS would keep it. But that's my opinion of course but I doubt I'm far off.

When W10M comes out and when the tablet interface gets it's update (I'm guessing these two things will go hand and hand) then we can have a better conversation about things. All people are doing now are having a big whine because they believe they're right. Righteousness is not an attractive trait.

 

[Serpent1189]

When win10 becomes a massive success(seems it is already very successful) sure it will change the game in mobile market as well. cos win10 and w10m both looks very similar with similar functionalities and both can run same apps. so people who love windows 10 will sure love w10m as well. and the success of win10 itself will make the people more interested on w10m and that will sure boost the WP market share momentum.

This is my theory on it too. My hope is that MS is able to leverage the huge marketshare they have with PCs to get better apps to the phones and boost them that way.

 

[Willelmus]

The only thing that will save windows phone is clever marketing. To be honest, nothing is wrong with windows phone as of now. Sure the OS has flaws but so do Android and IOS. The only thing keeping consumers from flocking to WP isn't even the app problem, because so few consumers are aware of it (most just buy whatever they know - whatever is popular and seems advanced). Microsoft just still has this square image tied to their brand. They only people willing to look past it are usually gamers, because Microsoft did a real 180 (or 360 ah!) in marketing with the XBOX.

XBOX gamers love their system. It has been marketed to them as a device that has always been futureproof and extremely enjoyable. You were proud to own a 360, show it to your friends. And today you're proud to show your XBOX one.

To be honest, the company is doing better in that department. The surface is a glowing example. They there control the entire windows experience and present it as a standard. Now if they would showcase other products in the same way (like a Dell XPS or a Lenovo Flip) and show the different prime experiences you can have with windows (which they are doing but not concentrating on it), they might transform New Jersey moms into real windows afficionados. Which is really what any tech company needs to succeed in today's US (which is the market that most developpers and tech companies look at - it's where the money is...)

 

[ShaneRay]

I didn't read the entire thread, but I'll add my two cents to the original question:

No. Windows 10 mobile is not going to cause any great change in the phone situation. As a few have already said, there's nothing to "save". Windows Phone has already failed in the market place and there's nothing left to fight for. The best that Microsoft can do is continue with their first party mobile software/hardware restructuring and try to make it profitable. Profitable doesn't mean market share growth.

Will they succeed? Impossible to say at this time. Right now all we're getting is speculation based on vague comments from Nadella. And I do feel that many (including WC editorial staff) have over analyzed these and drawn conclusions that just can't be supported...YET.

Other than the fact that Windows Phone has failed, we don't...and won't....know the final outcome for a while.

Just my thoughts....

 

[Soulstream]

I don't think WP10 will get Microsoft over 10% market share. But that's ok for me. As much as i like Microsoft products, I don't want them to go over 10% market share in mobile. Why? Because I think it's not healthy for the industry for one company to "rule" both desktop and mobile space. I want them to be profitable in mobile and big enough for developers to sustain the ecosystem, but not big enough to dominate the market.

 

[oguzsahin]

Microsoft's last chance