02-29-2016 02:48 PM
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  1. Johnny Tremaine's Avatar
    I don't get what the surprise is here. Microsoft said they were going stop dishing out dozens of different models while they regrouped. In the meantime they'd stick a phone out for the fans to grab if they really couldn't wait
    They've done that haven't they?
    The 950/950xl came out. They've had little or no marketing. They are for the fans. In no way is this meant to attract new people. This is the regrouping stage. This means that the revenues will go through the floor. When you are losing money on the phones that you are selling, maybe it helps to sell fewer phones whilst you work out where you are going.
    Whether it works or not will be seen if/when they bring out a surface phone or a surface phone 2.
    Not everything needs to be hyperbole. It's not either the greatest thing in the world or the worst thing.
    If you like it, great. If you don't, fine.
    The regrouping/not putting out loads of phones faze was never going to be just a couple of weeks in mid winter. It could take a while and it might never happen. We will only know when we look back on it in a few years.
    I agree with this, and it's also what Paul Thurrott has been saying on his site: this isn't a surprise.

    Last Summer, after writing down the Nokia acquisition as a total loss and sacking thousands of the Nokians, the CEO announced that they're dramatically scaling back their phone business, in terms of models (and investment, and resources). The result is, no sales and little interest.

    Windows Mobile as it exists now, and the Lumia devices and any future 'Surface' phones, are not, and not likely to be popular mass market devices, with big marketing pushes. Redmond is done pouring endless advertising and marketing behind their mobile offering. Microsoft lost in mobile; they'll keep plugging on with the OS, for niche uses and fanboys, but mostly as a showpiece that Windows can be extended to mobile.

    I fully expect the Lumia 650, to *be* the last Lumia device that Microsoft produces. After that, maybe a Surface device at some point, that can also make phone calls. That may take off, and it may not. My guess is that it'll be some huge phablet monster with a stylus, like the Dell Venue 8, that also runs full Windows, which means, it'll be a niche use product
    Last edited by Johnny Tremaine; 02-02-2016 at 09:31 AM.
    02-02-2016 09:21 AM
  2. bitfidler57's Avatar
    I agree with this. They have constantly done on the mobile side what they never did on the Desktop side: Drop support for older applications in favour of a new way of doing things.

    Microsoft, you built a great brand through Windows desktop. You've messed things up with Windows phone/mobile etc. by doing the wrong things over and over again.

    On the plus side I do see a number of Windows Mobile (BTW let's change the name to Microsoft Mobile) devices showing up in commercials and at a meeting last week there were 4 of us who had mobile devices out of 16 (so 25%).
    02-02-2016 09:50 AM
  3. jlzimmerman's Avatar
    Who cares you said? Devs care! You think they are going to develop for a 0.5% market share platform? Do you think consumers will even consider of this pathetic platform if there is practically no apps available at all?

    "Consumers are going to suffer if iOS and Android are the only two options." No they are not! Do you know how interesting Android phones as compared to our latest 950 "flag ship"? Look at all the different capabilities of Android phones - working with stylus, second top screen information, easy note taking when screen is off, TV remote controller, etc etc.... Vast capabilities as compared to windows phones which the only good thing about is its camera, that's it. Continuum? It doesn't seems to gain any popularity at all sadly especially with the highly priced docking station. Also, Continuum works like a crippled RT version of Windows 8.

    iOS? Stable and battery friendly. Vast selections of apps that are well polished and update frequently. Static icons? Apparently that doesn't matter at all to the world except for WP fans are hating static icons and are so proud of their "live" tiles.

    So enough of all these "who care" attitude. We need to care in order for the platform to pick up speed. We need to screw MS and let them know when they are not making things right. Otherwise, this platform is really as good as dead.
    My "Who cares?" comment wasn't about apps or enticing developers. The "Who cares" comment was to all the fan boys who rejoice any time a competing platform falls flat or is faced with doom. Why do these people care? They shouldn't. It's not like the iAndroid fans or WP fans get a check in the mail for loyalty, or some bonus if a competing platform fails. It's completely ridiculous.

    And yes, Consumers will suffer with only two mobile ecosystems from which to choose. Lack of competition stiffens growth, creativity, and increases cost for consumers.
    editguy likes this.
    02-02-2016 10:20 AM
  4. ludikreco's Avatar
    Thats so not true..if the Surface phone is true it will make big boom...if its going to be able to run 32 bit aps and exe files belove me many people will buy it.
    02-02-2016 01:45 PM
  5. tgp's Avatar
    And yes, Consumers will suffer with only two mobile ecosystems from which to choose. Lack of competition stiffens growth, creativity, and increases cost for consumers.
    We basically have two mobile ecosystems now, since iOS and Android make up 97% of the market. Consumers are not suffering. It could be argued that the ones suffering are those in the 3% category.
    02-02-2016 02:46 PM
  6. theefman's Avatar
    Thats so not true..if the Surface phone is true it will make big boom...if its going to be able to run 32 bit aps and exe files belove me many people will buy it.
    Unfortunately, with 1 billion + mobile users today already getting along fine without Windows x86 applications on their phones if that's the new savior's only party trick then its not going to make any kind of "boom", let alone a big one.

    I think this is where most people don't get the whole "mobile is the future" thing. Mobile today is all about people doing more and more on their phones and tablets alone and moving away from the desktop paradigm, and that is only going to become more pervasive going forward as these devices get more and more powerful and capable of more advanced tasks. Compared to this being able to run desktop programs from your phone isn't going to be the silver bullet for Microsoft as all it does is basically replicate the declining desktop paradigm into a more portable form factor so you are still tied to a desk, just in a different location but that still doesn't bring any of the new mobile experiences to the platform. In other words, all it does is offer more of the same that people are moving away from.

    So the "surface phone" will appeal to some but the majority will ignore it as it doesn't meet the needs of todays mobile user. If that's what people are pinning their hopes on I can see them being disappointed once again.
    02-02-2016 03:11 PM
  7. polychromenz's Avatar
    I'm constantly confused by these sales stats. We hear about sales dropping to 1% market share but we never directly state whether we mean new sales (if the old phones are still being used then as a dev I can still sell software to the owners) or are we talking total market share? Again if the share goes down but the physical number of WM devices hasn't fallen then devs wont need to stop targeting a device.

    For large companies this may affect decisions on development of an app but for indie devs, if there are still x million devices and I have an app that I can sell to them at $1 its still a big enough market to make me very happy
    02-02-2016 05:47 PM
  8. tgp's Avatar
    I'm constantly confused by these sales stats. We hear about sales dropping to 1% market share but we never directly state whether we mean new sales (if the old phones are still being used then as a dev I can still sell software to the owners) or are we talking total market share?
    Sales are representative of market share. If nothing else, they are the market share of the future. We do not see numbers for active users except sometimes for Android. I've not seen any for iOS or WP. There are numbers thrown around, but they're mostly the result of a WAG.
    Laura Knotek and a5cent like this.
    02-02-2016 08:39 PM
  9. anon(8145610)'s Avatar
    It has been and will always be a lack of popular apps that dooms WP. Period.
    What part of that equation can't people understand?
    02-02-2016 09:33 PM
  10. Nogitsune Micah's Avatar
    It has been and will always be a lack of popular apps that dooms WP. Period.
    What part of that equation can't people understand?
    These are the same people who think more oems ia going to be what saves the platform
    02-02-2016 10:00 PM
  11. Tien-Lin Chang's Avatar
    These are the same people who think more oems ia going to be what saves the platform
    With strict limitations of UI, hardware SPEC MSFT applied to OEMS. I doubt it will make any changes to the customers and I think that's the reason OEMS had left this platform, leaving it to the "offical brand".

    And I don't see much policy change in W10m game.
    02-02-2016 11:49 PM
  12. a5cent's Avatar
    ^ Which is a good thing. Many characteristics about an OS are interdependent. For example, without the UI and hardware spec restrictions, it would be impossible for the insider program to work on anything except Lumia devices. More importantly, the update policy changes coming with W10M (partially circumventing carriers) would also be impossible. One can't remove the limitations you think are bad, without sacrificing other capabilities (and more), which IMHO are far more important.
    Laura Knotek, libra89 and telomoyo like this.
    02-03-2016 01:16 AM
  13. Ian_Superfly's Avatar
    My uninformed GUESS is that Nadella felt that he had to choose between saving Office and WP.

    To secure the future of Office he did choose to let the WP only restrictions for Office go. When good Office was available on iOS/Android and the WP decline accelerated further there was not any point to keep any other Microsoft restrictions for iOS/Android and thus WP/W10M was doomed (as a generally used system).

    The "Universal apps" approach will not change anything (still guessing). Semi optimized apps will never beat 100% optimized (features, performance and UI).

    Sad if you ask me
    Last edited by Ian_Superfly; 02-03-2016 at 03:14 AM.
    telomoyo and xandros9 like this.
    02-03-2016 01:55 AM
  14. Tien-Lin Chang's Avatar
    ^ Which is a good thing. Many characteristics about an OS are interdependent. For example, without the UI and hardware spec restrictions, it would be impossible for the insider program to work on anything except Lumia devices. More importantly, the update policy changes coming with W10M (partially circumventing carriers) would also be impossible. One can't remove the limitations you think are bad, without sacrificing other capabilities (and more), which IMHO are far more important.
    Android got nexus devices to do the testing, not seeing much were sacrificed because of the non-standard hardwares on the field. This long and painful(?) insider program is special to WP/WM only due to their slow pace of development. Do we really need give anyone access to insider if MSFT can develop their OS fast enough and release RTM to everyone?

    My uninformed GUESS is that Nadella felt that he had to choose between saving Office and WP.

    To secure the future of Office he did choose to let the “WP only” restrictions for Office go. When “good” Office was available on iOS/Android and the WP decline accelerated further there was not any point to keep any other Microsoft restrictions for iOS/Android and thus WP/W10M was doomed (as a generally used system).

    The "Universal apps" approach will not change anything (still guessing). Semi optimized apps will never beat 100% optimized (features, performance and UI).

    Sad if you ask me
    It brought most of the benefit to the programmers however I really don't see much change from the UX side so far. Those "continue work/over the cloud" feature can be done without UWP as well so I still failed to see the benefit of UWP to the end user.
    02-03-2016 03:43 AM
  15. Spectrum90's Avatar
    I think this is where most people don't get the whole "mobile is the future" thing. Mobile today is all about people doing more and more on their phones and tablets alone and moving away from the desktop paradigm, and that is only going to become more pervasive going forward as these devices get more and more powerful and capable of more advanced tasks.

    So the "surface phone" will appeal to some but the majority will ignore it as it doesn't meet the needs of todays mobile user. If that's what people are pinning their hopes on I can see them being disappointed once again.
    Mobile already peaked. The top apps has been the same since many years. Every interesting use case of the form factor is already implemented. What else can you do with a phone or a tablet?
    The decline of sales is a consequence of the lack of innovation. Phones and tablets are boring, a new device provide the same experience just a bit faster. Mobile is the past, the future is new platform.

    Mobile users aren't a bunch of geeks using every possible app. It's a very heterogeneous group of people with different needs. Windows doesn't need to appeal to all of them, Microsoft has to find a niche and grow from there.
    The Surface Phone would target primarily the enterprise market as a replacement of phones issued by companies and desktop PCs. That's a very lucrative niche.
    telomoyo and Laura Knotek like this.
    02-03-2016 05:37 AM
  16. mariusmuntean's Avatar
    Mobile already peaked. The top apps has been the same since many years. Every interesting use case of the form factor is already implemented. What else can you do with a phone or a tablet?
    The decline of sales is a consequence of the lack of innovation. Phones and tablets are boring, a new device provide the same experience just a bit faster. Mobile is the past, the future is new platform.

    Mobile users aren't a bunch of geeks using every possible app. It's a very heterogeneous group of people with different needs. Windows doesn't need to appeal to all of them, Microsoft has to find a niche and grow from there.
    The Surface Phone would target primarily the enterprise market as a replacement of phones issued by companies and desktop PCs. That's a very lucrative niche.
    If Win10 will be the same buggy mess I wonder which company would risk it's finances and productivity by buying a device with a beta half baked OS...
    02-03-2016 05:50 AM
  17. tweet2nowhere's Avatar
    I have been trying out Android for the last week.
    The customization is great. Reminds me of MySpace.
    I've wasted countless hours with dialers, messaging, launchers.
    WPneeds to survive.
    02-03-2016 08:06 AM
  18. David Parody's Avatar
    I honestly cant figure out why WM10 and the 950XL are getting such a bad rap. I love both! The apps are great and selection is really about quality rather than quantity. An OS that is stable, intuitive and allows me to get my work done... oh, and make/receive phone calls...let's not forget that!

    I think MS have done a wonderful job and I can't fathom why their sales haven't rocketed as they deserve that they do. Perhaps better marketing would help as word of mouth is not enough where there isn't a huge install base there already to spread the word?
    telomoyo, editguy and PepperdotNet like this.
    02-03-2016 08:42 AM
  19. Ten Four's Avatar
    It has been and will always be a lack of popular apps that dooms WP. Period.
    What part of that equation can't people understand?
    I think it's not so much the lack of "popular" apps as it is the lack of universal app availability for all the small things that together add up to incredibly important things for people: the local bank app, the specialty productivity app that you need for work, the train or plane app, the phone service app, etc. etc. What is driving me away were instances of apps I needed for work in the last few months: a specific expense app needed when traveling for the company, a special authenticator app needed for internal systems, and specific apps used when traveling that are incredibly useful. After spending hours doing my expenses using a workaround I realized that I should at least try the other side, so I am currently using an Android phone and learning the good and bad of the system. An iPhone would bring me even more into the mainstream since they appear to represent at least 75% of the phones used in business--at my company I would guess 85%+. When someone says anything about phones at work they assume you are using an iPhone. When I look at stats as to what our customers use--iPhone. When I look at stats on what their customers are using--iPhone. So, it doesn't really matter what you prefer if you want to be in the mainstream in business you should use an iPhone, or you can act a bit geeky and probably survive with an Android phone (mostly seen in the IT department at work).
    xandros9 likes this.
    02-03-2016 09:01 AM
  20. Kevin Hill2's Avatar
    Yes, Windows phone is failing, But Windows mobile is not, not by a long shot, Microsoft has slowly been integrating itself into the other platforms, with the right App's you can turn an Android or i-phone into a Windows phone. Windows phone will die, but be reborn as the Surface phone running Windows 10 mobile.How much Microsoft do you have on your Android or Apple device? and now Chances are your Key board to. Microsoft has not lost this race, it is just slowly taking over the other runners.
    02-03-2016 10:25 AM
  21. Ten Four's Avatar
    How much Microsoft do you have on your Android or Apple device?
    About the only MS app I have found useful so far on Android is the Outlook app, which did integrate easily and well with our work Outlook email and calendar system. I will probably install Skype for Business soon, because that is becoming the default messaging app for work. It is way too cumbersome to do anything with Office docs of any type on a phone, so I just occasionally read these on my phone. My main line of work requires logging into certain systems through a VPN and it is just not workable on any phone (requires special hardware and software), so my main use is for communication purposes.
    02-03-2016 11:35 AM
  22. a5cent's Avatar
    Android got nexus devices to do the testing, not seeing much were sacrificed because of the non-standard hardwares on the field. This long and painful(?) insider program is special to WP/WM only due to their slow pace of development. Do we really need give anyone access to insider if MSFT can develop their OS fast enough and release RTM to everyone?
    The ability to do something like the insider preview is just one example of at least half a dozen things that MS could no longer do if they decided your priorities were more important. I understand that you're not exactly enthusiastic about the insider preview program. I can see your point and I'm not convinced of its usefulness either. However, I do think the ability to deliver updates directly (for the most part without OEM or carrier intervention), is a capability MS simply can't afford to sacrifice for a single W10M device. Particularly not for two capabilities that wouldn't excite a single OEM in the world and only few customers.

    Even if MS stopped selling W10M devices immediately, there would still not exist a market large enough to justify the expenses involved in modifying W10M's UI or adapting the OS to alternative hardware. Worst of all, if some rogue OEM decided to flush economic principles down the toilette and do so anyway, you'd never see that device get a single update and MS couldn't do anything about it (no insider preview, no direct OS updates, nothing).

    MS just finished version 1.0 of the first OS that would grant them the ability to update all devices of all OEMs directly. Sacrificing that huge capability now, for two others that very few care about, would IMHO be rather ironic.
    telomoyo likes this.
    02-03-2016 11:43 AM
  23. constantreader16's Avatar
    Unfortunately, with 1 billion + mobile users today already getting along fine without Windows x86 applications on their phones if that's the new savior's only party trick then its not going to make any kind of "boom", let alone a big one.

    I think this is where most people don't get the whole "mobile is the future" thing. Mobile today is all about people doing more and more on their phones and tablets alone and moving away from the desktop paradigm, and that is only going to become more pervasive going forward as these devices get more and more powerful and capable of more advanced tasks. Compared to this being able to run desktop programs from your phone isn't going to be the silver bullet for Microsoft as all it does is basically replicate the declining desktop paradigm into a more portable form factor so you are still tied to a desk, just in a different location but that still doesn't bring any of the new mobile experiences to the platform. In other words, all it does is offer more of the same that people are moving away from.

    So the "surface phone" will appeal to some but the majority will ignore it as it doesn't meet the needs of todays mobile user. If that's what people are pinning their hopes on I can see them being disappointed once again.
    You just said mobile is going to be all about being able to do more and more on mobile, then followed it up by saying that allowing x86 apps (which will instantly allow you to do a lot more on your phone) won't save Windows Mobile. Allowing x86 programs suddenly takes away any additional development because if it works on a desktop, it works on a phone. Most software companies that working professionals use for actual work have no mobile app or they are absolutely terrible, this could make a huge difference when it comes to that market.
    Last edited by constantreader16; 02-03-2016 at 12:18 PM. Reason: Sentence cleanup and clarification
    02-03-2016 12:06 PM
  24. theefman's Avatar
    Mobile already peaked. The top apps has been the same since many years. Every interesting use case of the form factor is already implemented. What else can you do with a phone or a tablet?
    The decline of sales is a consequence of the lack of innovation. Phones and tablets are boring, a new device provide the same experience just a bit faster. Mobile is the past, the future is new platform.

    Mobile users aren't a bunch of geeks using every possible app. It's a very heterogeneous group of people with different needs. Windows doesn't need to appeal to all of them, Microsoft has to find a niche and grow from there.
    The Surface Phone would target primarily the enterprise market as a replacement of phones issued by companies and desktop PCs. That's a very lucrative niche.
    The point is not about specific apps or the form factor, its the fact that future innovations, interactions, scenarios are going to be in the mobile space, not at a desktop with a keyboard and mouse. Every interesting use case of the form factor is already implemented? Maybe the form factor itself but the use cases they will enable going forward will be limited only by technology and people's imagination. But the reality of today is that the desktop is not the driving force of innovation, phones and tablets and the apps that run on them are.

    You say mobile is the past, the future is the "new platform". Yes, most likely the way we regard mobile now as just tablets and phones will change into something along the lines of devices like hololens but isn't such a device mobile in nature? That's the whole point, the future of mobile is undefined and unknown but when people think about it they're not thinking of sitting at a desk with a keyboard and mouse. That stands in stark contrast to what the "surface phone" offers, just a way to mimic a desktop and that is the point being made about the surface phone not being a product that will really have as much of an impact or mass appeal as it is being made out to be.

    You just said mobile is going to be all about being able to do more and more on mobile, then followed it up by saying that allowing x86 apps (which will instantly allow you to do a lot more on your phone) won't save Windows Mobile. Allowing x86 programs suddenly takes away any additional development because if it works on a desktop, it works on a phone. Most software companies that working professionals use for actual work have no mobile app or they are absolutely terrible, this could make a huge difference when it comes to that market.
    And how are you going to access those programs when you're not sitting at a desk?
    a5cent likes this.
    02-03-2016 12:36 PM
  25. DarthVedder's Avatar
    It has been and will always be a lack of popular apps that dooms WP. Period.
    What part of that equation can't people understand?
    At the current stage, I don't think even the current popular apps would save the platform. We could get Snapchat and whichever popular apps that are available today, and at most they would prevent some people from jumping ship, but I don't see how they could convince anyone to leave iOS or Android. Why would an iOS user migrate to WM only to be able to do exactly the same he already does just fine on his/her iPhone.

    WM needs the apps AND a killer exclusive app or feature that would make the platform attractive. Something like a full implementation of continuum with support for Win32 apps might be that killer feature for several enterprise users.
    a5cent, libra89 and telomoyo like this.
    02-03-2016 12:47 PM
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