(Deja Vu) Palm all over again?

[Marko Marjanovic]

You think that, me two, person near me too..but they might not. They earn and focus more on other windows product *for now*, but i think after that famous Surface phone they will engage on comercials and apps more then before. After all they work that for money, and without risk there is no profit. Even if they completly lost all phone division, microsoft will still be on the top with OS and other better selling product.

 

[Stanleywinston]

I am aware that there are many other "the sky is falling threads." I started this one in response to the new evidence, which is significant, of 49% revenue decrease. It also happens when new evidence is presented regarding other topics, such as global warming, the discussion is resurrected. Let us have a discussion here. There are some really good comments here that would not have been written if this thread was not started.

but if it just rehashes the same stuff there's not a lot of point.
If the sky is going to fall then it'll happen.

Point being that the new evidence doesn't really change anything and isn't news to anyone that noticed that Microsoft said they weren't going to push in that phase.

I think the next year or so will be interesting. I don't think the last 6 months was. And by interesting I don't mean it's definitely going to be the best thing ever ever or I think it's going to be the end of civilisation as we know it. It will just move the narrative

 

[jlzimmerman]

I'm in the same boat.

Like I said in another forum, sales were poor, as expected. When you don’t release any phones, don’t advertise, and spend more time developing for competing platforms than your own then yeah, you aren’t going to sell anything. MS continues to punch themselves in the face.

With that said, who cares. Who cares if their marketshare is low? If WP/W10M only had 100K users, and they were happy and Microsoft continued to support it, then so what? If it only had .5% marketshare, so what? Why does something need to die just because certain tech writers or fanboys thinks it should. I want W10M and Blackberry to do well. Consumers are going to suffer if iOS and Android are the only two options.

 

[Kevin Hill2]

I think you all are getting way to excited about the end of Windows phone, I think Microsoft is in it for the long haul, and I think they are being very sneaky and smart about how they are changing the way people think of Microsoft products, just look at all the Microsoft App's on other platforms. You can use any smartphone and find Microsoft, Windows 10 and universal App's and the Surface products. You watch, it will not be fast but it will happen and people will not even realise that they are being conditioned to use Windows, It is happening right now.

 

[Krystianpants]

I honestly think that the insider program may have caused many people to move over to android. In fact, there was lots of posts on reddit about the state of w10. The point of the insider program for a lot of people was to see what MS is doing and if they like the direction they are headed in. And for the hardcore users they get to see how things are coming along and what to expect. But even the insiders aren't really getting anything and so it makes it really seem like there's no focus on it. So the hardcore users are also questioning MS's motives.

Couple that with no globally functioning phones. How many do you think were interested in the new lumias but on Verizon? Verizon has a huge pull of people due to coverage that no one else can provide, not to mention some people get great deals. But MS doesn't seem to care. And MS could have done subsidizing on the phones themselves where people pay in installments to help foster buying a freaking 1000 dollar phone (In canada). But of course they didn't care. Their view is, any hardcore user will buy it. We can show some of the stuff we are working on to the hardcore users. Except they aren't really showing us anything any more.

I have a 950xl and love the phone. Even before this report came out, I started really getting worried with all the new android/ios apps that are being hammered out by MS. What really did it for me is the word flow one handed keyboard. My guess is that all departments are communicating and they are aware of each others work, but somehow w10 doesn't get this super useful feature?

My hope would be that the build to insiders is being postponed because they want to include some new features to get people excited again, but somehow I think this won't happen. I'd love to see them implement PC game to phone streaming and do it really well. Possibly show off rise of the tomb raider playing on the phone.

They are working on a lumia flip cover that will also act as a screen which could turn into a keyboard or anything really. If it is able to turn into a virtual joystick and allow you to game with it, then that would be sweet. But it would really have to be exclusive to the lumia lines. Because if they release it to work with ios or android then honestly there will be no pull. They would make more money sure, but at the cost of their own platform. They need to see that they are not giving people reason to move to w10.

It's not the actual phone sale stats that have windows users worried. This was expected, it's the fact that MS doesn't care and keeps pushing cool stuff onto other platforms. There's nothing new coming to us.

 

[triageatdawn]

I'm friends with some people who are still on WM. If our platform dies completely some of us will switch to iPhone, and some, including myself, still have no idea what they're gonna do if it comes to that one day. I think I'm gonna miss ZEISS the most. Oh man. Really disappointed.

 

[EspHack]

I'm expecting the same thing Microsoft did with surface RT here, they just move on, but NOT being on mobile is not on their plans, it just doesn't make sense really, they have been losing this battle for decades, I don't think they really care anymore, and will just keep throwing phones at us, so I'm gonna be happy as long as I never have to ever consider a device that doesn't fit my "ecosystem"

 

[WillysJeepMan]

Re: Palm all over again (Deja vu)

I think the biggest problem at this point is: how does Microsoft plan to ever get users who tried Windows Phone/Windows 10 Mobile and left for Android/iOS to return? Even if the apps eventually arrive, why would someone choose to switch back to what he/she left if his/her current mobile platform has all the apps he/she wants, especially if that person has invested money buying apps in the App Store or Google Play? What possibly could compel such a user to return?

BlackBerry might have a better chance if it makes compelling hardware, since it is now an Android OEM, so previous Google Play app purchases could be installed on the Priv (and future devices) without requiring additional payments. A current Android user would have a more compelling reason to buy an Android device made by BlackBerry than to buy a Windows 10 Mobile device.

Good thoughts, and good questions.

IMO, Microsoft has done themselves in, in the mobile space. I remember in the early 2000's using some terrific PDAs and smartphones BEFORE the iPhone running Microsoft's mobile operating systems. Amazing devices! I frequently traveled from AZ to NY and even back then those PocketPC/Windows Mobile devices were powerful enough to handle my computing needs on the trip. Folding external keyboards and all. :grin:

But they squandered their market lead. Every reboot dug the hole deeper, causing developers to leave the platform for good. With every reboot, Microsoft would need to commit more time, money, and resources to overcome the damage. But they didn't quite do that.

Now with Windows Phone 10, it's too late. The only "hail Mary" they could throw would be to produce a "Surface Phone" that would actually deliver what Belfiore demonstrated. But that would be gambling on the Surface name which is finally beginning to receive a good reputation.

It would take a ton more money, time, and energy than Microsoft is probably willing to invest.

 

[donkiluminate]

I'm friends with some people who are still on WM. If our platform dies completely some of us will switch to iPhone, and some, including myself, still have no idea what they're gonna do if it comes to that one day. I think I'm gonna miss ZEISS the most. Oh man. Really disappointed.

I tell ya. I left WM back in November and I miss it a lot. I bounced from an iPhone to Android to iPhone and now I'm thinking about going back to Android. Neither of those platforms really do it for me.

Despite the "app gap" and other frustrations i might have with the platform and MS' handling of it, I miss WM. Recently, I've been starting to talk myself into getting a 950 but I just don't have enough faith in MS to keep the platform alive enough and long enough to justify dropping $650 for the XL.

WM is a great platform but the lack of shepherding by MS has hurt it.

 

[telomoyo]

After reading Jason's article http://www.windowscentral.com/viewing-windows-phone-proper-context , something caught my attention, NPS "(NPS is a customer loyalty metric. It is this measure that Microsoft is applying to determine its success with its fans, enterprise and value consumers)"-Jason. This may be a reason why Msft is not advertising the phones. MSFT wants to see how well the WM platform can do without any advertisements, and get an idea of how well WM would do if it was.

 

[constantreader16]

The impression I've gotten with Windows 10 (including mobile), is that it's essentially a "long con," for lack of a better name. The initial versions of mobile aren't necessarily supposed to save the platform, but it's supposed to be the building blocks towards creating an ecosystem with almost no barriers. You have desktop, mobile, hololens, IoT, Band, tablets, etc. Mobile is a major part of that, but it seems like they know that they aren't ready to give that next big mobile push. Despite how much I hate people saying it, W10 Mobile (I don't consider the PC this at all), is still in "beta."

That's not to say it's unusable by any means or even incomplete, it's just very early and is being fine tuned. I also believe that once it hit 10586, it was incredibly stable. The difference I saw between some of the earlier builds, and that build in particular was monumental.

What I mean by that is that this is how they are getting W10M ready for the big time, which would be the Surface/Panos Phone. I've been using it as my daily driver since about Thanksgiving and I've had no major issues with it. It may not have all the bells and whistles that everyone hoped for, but it does the job. It's just as stable as most of my Android phones ever were, if not more.

All that said, Windows 10 (including mobile), is a very long term idea from Microsoft. It's about breaking down the barriers between devices and adapting to devices and form factors. Without Mobile, it fails. While I don't know what Microsoft is thinking, I'm sure they know what they are doing. The Surface line 4 years ago looked to be a total disaster, but look at it now. If Microsoft can garner even 30% of the success of the Surface if/when it is applied to mobile, they will have succeeded. Keep in mind, that the success the Surface line has generated so far has absolutely changed the definition of laptops and tablets. Both Google and Apple released their own versions of the Surface this year (neither with anywhere near similar capabilities), and it has inspired an entire new product line of 2-in-1's and transformed laptops and tablets with Windows 8/8.1/10.

The whole idea of One Windows (or whatever this strategy was called) has been in the works for years, and this is only the beginning of the unity we're seeing of the platforms. This will continue to change and grow going forward, and it truly is something that will take a long time to fully manifest. The general unity between all the devices seen already is a very welcome start in my opinion.

Personally, I think Microsoft has the right idea here, they've thinking long term and I wouldn't bet against them with how well the Surface line has done to move the entire marketplace. Additionally, given the traction Windows 10 for PC has gained, that likely will have at least some positive effect on Mobile as well, even if it takes some time to manifest.

TLR; This is a long term plan, desktop might be able to carry mobile, and using similar techniques as were used with the Surface line could still save Windows 10 and Windows 10 Mobile.

 

[Krystianpants]

After reading Jason's article Viewing Windows phone in the proper context | Windows Central , something caught my attention, NPS "(NPS is a customer loyalty metric. It is this measure that Microsoft is applying to determine its success with its fans, enterprise and value consumers)"-Jason. This may be a reason why Msft is not advertising the phones. MSFT wants to see how well the WM platform can do without any advertisements, and get an idea of how well WM would do if it was.

Yes but take the hammering of android/ios apps out as a factor in NPS. How do you think that makes the fans feel? So what would the satisfaction be in this case?

I honestly do get that everything is being done from scratch and things like this take time. But the problem is that their goal is so far into the future that it gives them an excuse to take their time. Yes, they need to do it right, it needs to be secure and all that jazz. But let's step away from the core OS/APi and look at the actual APPS that MS makes. These are missing a lot of basic features for example. They should not rely on the coreOS. In fact, a lot of the work is coded right in the app including multiple mailboxes and features surrounding them. Even something like aliases. These are basic functions that don't need to wait on the OS to be finalized or API to be finalized. Third party app touchmail is an incredible windows 10 mail app. So if these guys could do it, why can't MS? Wouldn't MS have specialized coders for specifically that Mail app, so they wouldn't need to use their resources else where? Shouldn't each app get their own team? Just makes you wonder how basic features can just be missing when a full team should be working on the app.

 

[Iain_S]

Microsoft has just starting putting all its separate software under one code base, windows, mobile, xbox and iot. the windows 10 that was released last year was not the final step in that direction as it did not fully align all in one code base. Redstone is that step as they are finally at the point now that it is a true onecore system. If you recently seen the huge build number in windows 10 pc insider build? that was to align the code with the mobile build completely You will start seeing rs1 builds very soon that are actually true onecore builds, which means all devices will run the same build and same core at the same time, what gets updated in pc build also gets updated in the mobile and xbox build, the mobile build is going to get a lot more robust from here out. Once rs1 is at completion stage along comes rs2 which will add many new features to all builds. MS are years ahead of this stuff than both apple and Google, MS are on the cutting edge of this. That's what this long journey has been about and its all coming together in 2016, it took 7 years to get there but it is finally upon us, their are exciting times ahead for the platform and the devices that surround that platform, from tiny devices to whatever size devices. Apple are in big trouble right now, if the iPhone 7 is not something completely new and doesn't blow your mind they will be in for a rude awakening, Google is tipping on saturation point with android, I cant see it going anywhere but downwards in the future.

 

[owensdj]

I think people are just waiting for phones pre-loaded with Windows 10 Mobile. Once 10 Mobile is released we will see a surge in Windows Phone market share.

 

[anon(185988)]

Re: Palm all over again (Deja vu)

I think the biggest problem at this point is: how does Microsoft plan to ever get users who tried Windows Phone/Windows 10 Mobile and left for Android/iOS to return? Even if the apps eventually arrive, why would someone choose to switch back to what he/she left if his/her current mobile platform has all the apps he/she wants, especially if that person has invested money buying apps in the App Store or Google Play? What possibly could compel such a user to return?

BlackBerry might have a better chance if it makes compelling hardware, since it is now an Android OEM, so previous Google Play app purchases could be installed on the Priv (and future devices) without requiring additional payments. A current Android user would have a more compelling reason to buy an Android device made by BlackBerry than to buy a Windows 10 Mobile device.

The funny thing is that Microsoft has had the tools all along, and somehow can't get them in a cohesive mobile package. They've totally missed the boat on the little things that geeks love, such as easy pairing to any wireless keyboard, mouse, or controller. The option to install apps from outside the Windows Store. Multi-Window and pen support. These things are just rearing their heads now, but should have been their from the beginning. Xbox controller should have a proprietary wireless driver in Windows without needing a silly dongle for it to work.

There should have been a compatibility layer for Windows Mobile apps and x86 apps similar to how Apple had with Rosetta when they switched mobile architectures. Would it run slower than native, or not at all? Sure, but some apps would run acceptably well, and it would increase the amount of apps available by leaps and bounds. Folks with old apps might have been willing to try the new platform.

Xbox Live compatibility. The indie games, and many of the Xbox live arcade games should have been cross platform on Microsoft systems. Turtles in time, The Simpsons, or Scott Pilgrim on mobile? Yes, please! Now imagine that working with tv out and Xbox controllers natively supported.

Microsoft Office. The Windows versions should be incredibly powerful and easy to use. The best of all platforms, and competitive with DOCS for non-professional use.

Patents. Instead of suing Android manufacturers, Microsoft should have cross licensed with Google and got their apps on mobile Windows.

Developers. Instead of charging developers the 30% fee that Apple and Google charge, they should really defer this fee for active developers for at least 2-3 years. Say, as long as the developer updates the app say, at least once every 60 days, they get no fee's or greatly reduced fee's (say 10 to 15%) for those first few years. This would entice developers, which in turn would lead to folks migrating, which would lead to more development.

Offer to migrate users paid apps. That app that tells you which apps have equivalents? Use it to let users get those apps for upon buying a new device, say up to $20 to $50 of credit for first time switchers.

It could be done. Look at how far the Xbone has come once they got fresh management to actually try and entice customers. They may not win the console generation, but they're at least in the race.

Just my random rant. LOL

 

[xandros9]

Re: Palm all over again (Deja vu)

The funny thing is that Microsoft has had the tools all along, and somehow can't get them in a cohesive mobile package. They've totally missed the boat on the little things that geeks love, such as easy pairing to any wireless keyboard, mouse, or controller. The option to install apps from outside the Windows Store. Multi-Window and pen support. These things are just rearing their heads now, but should have been their from the beginning. Xbox controller should have a proprietary wireless driver in Windows without needing a silly dongle for it to work.

There should have been a compatibility layer for Windows Mobile apps and x86 apps similar to how Apple had with Rosetta when they switched mobile architectures. Would it run slower than native, or not at all? Sure, but some apps would run acceptably well, and it would increase the amount of apps available by leaps and bounds. Folks with old apps might have been willing to try the new platform.

Xbox Live compatibility. The indie games, and many of the Xbox live arcade games should have been cross platform on Microsoft systems. Turtles in time, The Simpsons, or Scott Pilgrim on mobile? Yes, please! Now imagine that working with tv out and Xbox controllers natively supported.

Microsoft Office. The Windows versions should be incredibly powerful and easy to use. The best of all platforms, and competitive with DOCS for non-professional use.

Patents. Instead of suing Android manufacturers, Microsoft should have cross licensed with Google and got their apps on mobile Windows.

Developers. Instead of charging developers the 30% fee that Apple and Google charge, they should really defer this fee for active developers for at least 2-3 years. Say, as long as the developer updates the app say, at least once every 60 days, they get no fee's or greatly reduced fee's (say 10 to 15%) for those first few years. This would entice developers, which in turn would lead to folks migrating, which would lead to more development.

Offer to migrate users paid apps. That app that tells you which apps have equivalents? Use it to let users get those apps for upon buying a new device, say up to $20 to $50 of credit for first time switchers.

It could be done. Look at how far the Xbone has come once they got fresh management to actually try and entice customers. They may not win the console generation, but they're at least in the race.

Just my random rant. LOL

I have some counterpoints to throw at you but I'll have to issue an IOU first because I'm kinda on the go at the moment.

 

[bobwhi123]

Re: Palm all over again (Deja vu)

I'm done with windows mobile - for now. I've been a old fan boy for WM for many years, converted 8 of my friends to WM and all 4 in my family are on WM. Over the last 12-15 yrs trying Palm Phone, BB, IOS, Android for a year or two each, went to Windows Phone for the last ~7 years. Samsung Focus S, Lumia 920, Lumia 1520, then 950XL for one day.

Love windows 10, love 85% of window 10 mobile. But could not use the 950xl for more than a day with so many bugs.
-Camera was worse than my 1520 in low light
-Took forever to process a photo
-Battery lasted 1/2 day
-Phone was nearly hot during charging and warm all the time in use
-Glitches everywhere in WM10

If it had been kick a... and minor bugs, then I would continue to put up with no notifications for fitbit or pebble, and limited new apps, and weak car integration, etc, etc. But I was so disappointed with the whole experience I'm done for now. Maybe someday, but new Microsoft apps are going to IOS before WM. I loved the idea of continuum, but I'll carry my laptop anyway until the business apps go universal.

I don't trust Android or google with my data, BB is in worse shape than WM, so I guess I'm left with IOS... I kind of dread it... but at least I'll see who is texting me from my Pebble...

 

[Protocol Rahul]

People go through this podcast, hope your mind will be clear afterwards.

 

[Chintan Gohel]

Viewing Windows phone in the proper context | Windows Central

 

[slivy58]

Once 10 Mobile is released we will see a surge in Windows Phone market share.

It'll be too late by then as many will have settled on another platform, besides, MS tarnished ways in the mobile division will take many moons to overcome and IMO we'd be lucky to see WM making any sizable impact in 2-3 years, just have to look at BB to see how their antics has fared for them and I see little difference here. Have a feeling many won’t be gauging WMs performance/advancements over the past 15 or so months but more since the 7.x days, doesn’t paint a very rosy picture when you factor all those years in, yep there were some exciting times but at every upturn there was multiple downturns, the trend continues.

There is nothing wrong with a dream but if you already have an entity w/loyalists and basically cease advancements because you are working on the next evolution, you'll pay and pay dearly, alienating your supporters ain’t cool nor will it entice others to come onboard, throw in the fact they delayed outing new devices or chose the safe low-spec’d route when many wanted the cream of the crop, if you want to thrive then meeting all aspects of the spectrum w/minimal delays is a must especially in the tech world.