(Deja Vu) Palm all over again?

Tien-Lin Chang

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Telling people is still growing and the future will be nice = telling people go some other platform now and come back when its ready?

If so then why people want to invest their money on a developing platform before it's READY? A paying beta tester sound stupid to me.

You can't using this excuse to cover MSFT for too long before it start driving people and app developer away.

They already have gone slow in 2014 because the Nokia/MS merge, going even slower in 2015 because they are focuing on W10M. How many years we have to wait till we catch up MSFT claimed many years ahead?
 

Manfred Pohler

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I don't have the insights to tell what the real reason for the WM problems are.
But I want to share my "problems" with WM.

I'm a MS developer for more than 20 years and you can call me a fan boy.
Also I'm technical addicted. I run an automated home, have some HUE and LIFX bulbs run RaspBerry PIs...

Going from Windows Mobile (those old "CE devices") to iPhone I learned two thing.
With WP it was horrible to set up a network, and almost impossible to get a connection to my Exchange Server.
On my iPhone it was just a few taps and I had push mail running - still with my Exchange.
My thoughts were - why can a "third party" OS connect with MS products and MS to MS makes so much problems?

Anyhow - I left my iPhone and changed back to MS.
Things worked as expected - but from a developers perspective I was disappointed.
Well knowing (from iPhone) that those mobile OSes have a lot of restrictions for a developer I was shocked how much more restrictions existed on WM.
I had a "transportation goods tracking" application. First on WM (almost no restrictions at all) an later on iPhone - although nit took some time till Apple allowed background tasks.
At WM - "no background due to battery concerns"...
So I was not able to run this solution on WM...

Next step was WP8.x.
First to notice - my 500 Euro plus devices, about a year old will never get the update.
So bad luck - while my iPhone 3GS still was on the most current iOS version.

Meanwhile I got an Android Phone to run my smartwatch.
And I needed it to access my VPN since WP8.0 couldn't do this.
Another big problem - having a device which is advertised as "business device" not able to open a VPN connection.
There were a lot of updates to WP8.0 - and I was always waiting for VPN - what they brought was "better X Box", "new Color schemas" and stuff like this...

But with WP8.1 the things changed - VPN was introduced...
And I felt like in the early days with my first iPhone - I could connect to my Windows 2xxx servers VPN with android - but not with the MS device.
Oh yes - VPN on WP8.1 had a "plugin model" so third party vendors could write the "provider"...
But - first (almost) nobody did it and second (more worse) MS didn't do it for it's own OSes.
So I got (in theory) VPN - but couldn't use it - YES still talking about a business device.

I wrote a lot about VPN - but this was one of the mostly asked questions from my customers.
...you run Windows Phone...can we securely connect to our infrastructure????

Window 10 Mobile changed this behavior - years later...

Currently I got another problem - related to BT-LE. Those little guys (BLE devices) are able to talk to "unpaired" devices.
Which offers a punch of possibilities. For an example (I now that's not a perfect scenario - just an example) such a device could talk to my phone and an app there could say "hi I'm Manfred, please...". But not with MS - pairing is needed.
And the same matters (again / still) to missing functionality (possibilities) of the API (developer access to the device).
Which brings me to the current situation.

A lot of writing is around about "missing apps".
One fact is that developers want (need) to make money - so they (have to) choose a platform with a big number of potential customers.
But (I think) this could be solved (like other wrote above) just by MS throwing in money (we pay XXXX for the best ZZZ client, the first porting XXX to WM gets...).

The much bigger problem is what is (not) possible to make.
Here I think about the (currently) "big thing" IOT.
Microsoft "somehow" heard about it and is also part of the game (Windows 10 for IOT), but not with their Phones.
Buy a HUE - and find that there are apps - for iOS and Android.
Buy a LIFX - iOS / Android.
Buy a smart fridge - apps for iOS / Android.
Buy a home-control (home automation system) - plenty of solutions for iOS / Android.
Remote control you smart TV - no problem - with iOS / Android.

You want to impress your friends?
Invite them home and show how cool the things work...
Enter the door - lights go on, Say "Siri music please" and your sound system starts to work, "OK Google, I need coffee" - the coffee machine starts up (of course you have to place cups :)), and a tap on your phone send the cleaning bot to it's corner...

"Google, Siri" - not Cortana.
You are right - this is some kind of "the extra cool guy" - but it was an example.
Last not least a mobile phone has (beside other things) two roles - it must make your life easier (fulfill your "needs") and it should be impressive.

And even if you are the "understatement guy" - never telling about what your cool things can do...
The same thing work with store / customer.
I need a phone...
Here you have Andy 17... it works with your fridge, TV, home automation,...
Ah and that is WM 10 - cool look..sorry no chance that it works with...

Giving you the choice of a well designed OS (Live tiles and so forth) or on the other hand a "not so polished" thing which interacts with the rest of your "technical environment" - what would you choose?

Or if you already got a WM device.
You go to your power provider and they tell you - good news, you can now see what consumes most energy in your household...
Just got to Android Store and download...
I have no Android..
Ah, no problem, we have a download for iOS too...
Window Phone???????

Last not least a simple scene.
You are a sales person.
And you have to sell a mobile phone doing an on stage presentation (a TV commercial)
Your goal (of course) is to sell as much as possible.
Two choices
- show how cool it is to work with Excel sheets on a big screen (Continuum), show how cool office in general works on the device, show how cool it is to stare (for a too long time) at your phone to unlock...
OR
- show you walking through your house while lights turn on and off, take of your shirt while the heating is raised to a higher temperature, and last not least when it rings at the door have a peek via your phone who's coming...

Ah, I forgot - if your second presentation is for "business guys" you still can show them Office running on your iPhone / Android.
And this is a thing I'm also curious... Why the hell does MS provide office (in a fully polished version) for competitor OSes?
This could be a "real difference" - yes on iPhone / Android you can... but on Windows Mobile you have full office integration, can work with your Documents like in the office...
YES you can - but you can do this also with an iPhone...
Does MS want to sell office - or to make WM a real competitor in the mobile OS market?
If second - why don't they throttle (at least) office and other MS apps on competitor devices?
Instead they make product which are as good as like those on the "in house OS" - if not even better.


I'm from Europe (Austria) - here WM runs a bit better than in US - but last not least we have the same problems.
And just now the weather becomes a bit worse (cloudy) - I'll take my Android phone switch on my HUEs...
 

Manfred Pohler

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I think people are just waiting for phones pre-loaded with Windows 10 Mobile. Once 10 Mobile is released we will see a surge in Windows Phone market share.

Waiting?
And what do they use to make calls / run their apps... while waiting?
The people "waiting" are those who are technical freaks.
And they of course will buy the "latest cool" iOS / Android device.
Will they really throw it away when the "under progress" Windows 10 Mobile is finally there?

The same for WM7.x - wait for 8.0 this will be much better, OK lots of thing missing, but we are almost done with 8.1.
Now what people here is "bad news" - WM7 device are dead (throw it away), Windows 8.x devices will get an update (of course missing some functionallity) to WM 10...

But no problem at all - just wait for Windows Surface....
And if this is not a big thing - we will bring out Windows... - just wait..
And if you buy it now - be sure you can throw it away when the next "new things" will be "almost ready"
 

slivy58

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And meanwhile how many Windows Devices will end in your drawer because they no longer work with the "brand now almost done OS" :unhappy:

Agreed as that has crossed my mind many a times especially lately, add to the fact when there needs to be carrier intervention for firmware and such, what company in their right mind is going to devote time and effort devising for 2+-3 year old devices on a platform they've already chosen to let go of or had little interest in (wouldn't blame them), most users will be left out in the cold just as in the past.
 

Manfred Pohler

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..., add to the fact when there needs to be carrier intervention for firmware and such....
I agree to what you say too...
Except what I quoted above.
Updates where always much faster on WP than on Android (different on iOS) - and the latest changes (W10M) even bypass the carriers. That's a big step in the right direction.
OK - there are faults with the MS update servers / process. But I get my updates in time - not like with my Android where I have to live with known bugs (security critical ones) for years before "someone" sometimes (if ever) decides that I can get an update.
Latest situation - after more than a year I got a new Android version - a version which is already outdated an has existing know security issues :unhappy:
 

runamuck83

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I am not a person that goes for "the sky is falling" easily. However, with the new report of 49% decrease in WM revenue, is the sky falling for WM? ios and Android remain kings. BlackBerry failed due to lack of innovation, Palm failed due to lack of money, and horrendous support and advertisements from Sprint. Of course, let's not forget the lack of apps in both occasions. Microsoft has the money and the development team necessary for success. Apps? Meh, advertising for phone?...nonexistent. Is the phone arena something that all companies, with the exception of android and IOs, should stop pursuing?
PCWorld calls the Lumia a "Dead Phone Walking." Microsoft's Lumia may be a dead phone walking, as sales continue to fall | PCWorld. For the first time since becoming a WM user, over 3 years, I feel that there may not be any hope left. Your thoughts?

I really don't get why people are shocked or surprised by this news.


  1. "Windows Phone" never took off and will never sell in any volume
  2. "Lumia" as a brand is not well known in most parts of the world, and almost completely unknown in the USA
  3. They stopped producing mass quantities of phones a year ago. The only reason marketshare for Windows Phone was what it was because they were flooding the market with devices. They effectively only released 4 phones last year (640/XL, 950/XL)
  4. They haven't advertised their phones... AT ALL. How would anyone expect them to sell without ads?
  5. They want to move away from the "phone business". This doesn't necessarily mean they won't make phones - what it means is they'll produce devices that do everything. Aka "Surface Phone". It won't just be a "smartphone". This is the only way they can compete - by changing the market.

They're essentially phasing out the Lumia brand with their tactics - intentionally.

Microsoft knows their strategy and they fully expected these results. The plan is to change the game - that's the only way they will succeed and it starts with Windows 10.
 

libra89

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I really don't get why people are shocked or surprised by this news.

You have valid points but I think the shock is how low it is. I was okay with it having 3% market share in the US. That is low too but 1.9 is very low. Also you forgot that they released the 435 too.
 

runamuck83

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You have valid points but I think the shock is how low it is. I was okay with it having 3% market share in the US. That is low too but 1.9 is very low. Also you forgot that they released the 435 too.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if it drops to sub 1% territory in the coming months...

Microsoft is ditching Lumia and starting over with something they can be successful on. Windows Phone failed to catch on years ago. They're letting it fade off and something based on Surface will reemerge from the ashes.
 

Tien-Lin Chang

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And meanwhile how many Windows Devices will end in your drawer because they no longer work with the "brand now almost done OS" :unhappy:
I think it's better to stay in people's drawer rather than stay in the lost list of company annual balance table....at least it give reason for share holder and managing team to hold their big dreams tight.

Not many company will accept lost money (=invaild investment) for a long time.

So for before their dream come ture they still need some folks to donate some money to keep it alive I guess.

I think the other reason MSFT stay in the market is to keep a good reason to charging those patents from google, if they quit the market completely then they will be like RAMBUS against the RAM industry and there will be lots of law suit for sure - they don't want that.

One of the reason people used to defend MSFT is "W10 is a service, the device is not really important" which I think just sucks for mobile market. It is kind of sad if a phone equals to a computer stick in terms of importance....then how you expect they gonna really push hard (heavily invest) for this market when they can do well with others?
 

blackburberry

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Re: Palm all over again (Deja vu)

IMHO, the whole leviathan known as Microsoft needs to get it's head out of it's collective backside and smell the roses. The whole thing still reeks of we are right, you, the consumer, is wrong.

This was BlackBerry's undoing as well. They were innovative enough, they just can't/couldn't shake the propellerhead mindset.

When it comes to the personal device market there needs to be a blend of engineering with street smart crews that have their fingers on the pulse of society. A company that relies solely on hardware/software engineers and boardroom suits as their decision makers is doomed to fail.

edit: But I ordered a 950 anyway. Wouldn't want it to fail on my account. :grin:
 
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slivy58

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I agree to what you say too...
Except what I quoted above.
Updates where always much faster on WP than on Android (different on iOS) - and the latest changes (W10M) even bypass the carriers. That's a big step in the right direction.
OK - there are faults with the MS update servers / process. But I get my updates in time - not like with my Android where I have to live with known bugs (security critical ones) for years before "someone" sometimes (if ever) decides that I can get an update.
Latest situation - after more than a year I got a new Android version - a version which is already outdated an has existing know security issues :unhappy:

Can't say I like MSs update approach, sure they are faster but IMHO more times than not there's little in the way of advancements/enhancements with each, I'd prefer one large one rather than these incremental updates that seem all too often, mute, got to remember Android is enhancing that which, for the most part, is already offered whereas MS is implementing features yet not available or, re-implementing (W10M) those which they've chosen to remove previously.

So I have an old Droid from 2010, Galaxy S Fascinate w/Gingerbread 2.3.3, just thought I'd do a little comparison just for the sake of doing so, for me it highlights the facts that WP/WM is still lacking after all this time, very disheartening for me as I wanted it to succeed for my personal use but as per norm, "soon" was always just around the corner which just became too annoying. The Fascinate's camera software is even superior (for its time), incorporates multiple built-in features that WP still relies on separate apps to achieve, speed wise the phone in general it isn't too far off from my 1020 and in some respects is faster, obviously its 3G isn't going to compete against LTE... So lets compare my LG G4, or not LOL... Don't use my 830 for comparison because out of the three WPs I purchased since 2012, it has been the worst (lemon) with my Ativ S being the best, camera not withstanding.

So iOS (IMO) keeps their OS updated reasonably well and bug fixes are quick to come fourth, Android can be very slow on the updates true yet there is an option to root if one is so inclined, WM on the other hand is a tough nut to crack and is obviously restrictive, if it weren't for PFD/IP most of use would still be standing on the starting line, it is great MS gave us that option but more times than not we're relegated to enduring a bug riddle OS and just as with Android, at the mercy of MS as to when they'll implement a fix.
 
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evildude42

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I've used WINCE devices forever, but always as a curiosity. They have never gotten to the point of actually being usable as a standalone or a day to day device. I recently got a 550 to a) play with a win 10 built device and b) attempt to program against it. So far it is failing at both and will probably be a media playback device, but i cant even get a decent podcast player for it. I will only keep it because in theory I can write for windows 10, and have a semi fast port available for mobile.
 

mariusmuntean

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Yes but take the hammering of android/ios apps out as a factor in NPS. How do you think that makes the fans feel? So what would the satisfaction be in this case?

I honestly do get that everything is being done from scratch and things like this take time. But the problem is that their goal is so far into the future that it gives them an excuse to take their time. Yes, they need to do it right, it needs to be secure and all that jazz. But let's step away from the core OS/APi and look at the actual APPS that MS makes. These are missing a lot of basic features for example. They should not rely on the coreOS. In fact, a lot of the work is coded right in the app including multiple mailboxes and features surrounding them. Even something like aliases. These are basic functions that don't need to wait on the OS to be finalized or API to be finalized. Third party app touchmail is an incredible windows 10 mail app. So if these guys could do it, why can't MS? Wouldn't MS have specialized coders for specifically that Mail app, so they wouldn't need to use their resources else where? Shouldn't each app get their own team? Just makes you wonder how basic features can just be missing when a full team should be working on the app.

Normally yes, there should be at least a team for the apps, there should be devs AND testers AND some QAs but Nadella thought they do not need so many people and laid them off in his obsession for cost cutting. look at the pictures Gabe Aul is sharing on twitter. how many people do you see in the team he is praising about? how old and how much experience do they seem to have most of them? to me most look like interns...so how can we expect more from this? with who? When Apple holds wwc there are more than a thousand engineers there: devs, designers, testers. more than a thousand! and they develop three OSes: ios, osx and appletv os...and I am sure that Google also has a huge amount handling Android and their apps. Compare that.
 

constantreader16

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Can't say I like MSs update approach, sure they are faster but IMHO more times than not there's little in the way of advancements/enhancements with each, I'd prefer one large one rather than these incremental updates that seem all too often, mute, got to remember Android is enhancing that which, for the most part, is already offered whereas MS is implementing features yet not available or, re-implementing (W10M) those which they've chosen to remove previously.

If you're getting updates once a month, or once a week, that's not different than the bug fixes iOS does get. You only hear about their larger ones, but they do get the .1's and .0.1 OS versions often as well.

On top of that, having that consistent of updates is awesome. Even if you don't get a new feature every time, you could get better battery life, smoothing operation, less data usage, bug fixes, etc. With Android, and to some extent iOS, you have to wait until they push it out, and then wait for the carriers to approve it. Even with unlocked phones it's not all peachy. I had an unlocked Nexus 6, and I had to wait almost 2 months for Android M, then a week or two later my 950 XL showed up. I'll take the 5 or 6 updates I've gotten in two months on WP over the two updates I got in 6 months on Android any day.
 

sd4f

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I thought WP/W10M was doomed a while ago, not that it counts for anything, the talk now is just that it's terminal. Once that starts to entrench itself, it's just going to provoke a contagion, as no one will want to be slumped with a platform that's almost over and about to have the plug pulled.

But with that said, I still think windows phone is the best platform, for me. I don't particularly like iphone, and my experience with android was really poor, so I'm not interested in it either. The app gap, can be a bit of a problem, but it's not a major set back for me. What is annoying is that particularly with what I've seen in W10M is that a lot of the neat features of WP have slowly been pulled.

What really irks me at the moment is they're saying that the UI in windows phone is too cluttered. Like have those people used the platform? It's dependent on the user how cluttered it is, and in spite of that, I think it's a really neat UI, allowing the user to tailor it to their wants.

I think the history of WP is simple, it was simply too late, and when they released WP8 and abandoned WP7 users, they probably lost a fair bit of good will in that step, when they really needed it to gain traction, but ultimately, they were just too late when apple and google had a few critical years to get their platforms improved with features and apps.
 

xandros9

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Re: Palm all over again (Deja vu)

The funny thing is that Microsoft has had the tools all along, and somehow can't get them in a cohesive mobile package. They've totally missed the boat on the little things that geeks love, such as easy pairing to any wireless keyboard, mouse, or controller. The option to install apps from outside the Windows Store. Multi-Window and pen support. These things are just rearing their heads now, but should have been their from the beginning. Xbox controller should have a proprietary wireless driver in Windows without needing a silly dongle for it to work.

There should have been a compatibility layer for Windows Mobile apps and x86 apps similar to how Apple had with Rosetta when they switched mobile architectures. Would it run slower than native, or not at all? Sure, but some apps would run acceptably well, and it would increase the amount of apps available by leaps and bounds. Folks with old apps might have been willing to try the new platform.

Xbox Live compatibility. The indie games, and many of the Xbox live arcade games should have been cross platform on Microsoft systems. Turtles in time, The Simpsons, or Scott Pilgrim on mobile? Yes, please! Now imagine that working with tv out and Xbox controllers natively supported.

Microsoft Office. The Windows versions should be incredibly powerful and easy to use. The best of all platforms, and competitive with DOCS for non-professional use.

Patents. Instead of suing Android manufacturers, Microsoft should have cross licensed with Google and got their apps on mobile Windows.

Developers. Instead of charging developers the 30% fee that Apple and Google charge, they should really defer this fee for active developers for at least 2-3 years. Say, as long as the developer updates the app say, at least once every 60 days, they get no fee's or greatly reduced fee's (say 10 to 15%) for those first few years. This would entice developers, which in turn would lead to folks migrating, which would lead to more development.

Offer to migrate users paid apps. That app that tells you which apps have equivalents? Use it to let users get those apps for upon buying a new device, say up to $20 to $50 of credit for first time switchers.

It could be done. Look at how far the Xbone has come once they got fresh management to actually try and entice customers. They may not win the console generation, but they're at least in the race.

Just my random rant. LOL

Alrighty I'm in front of my laptop now.

I believe that such an x86 compatibility layer wouldn't work too well. I did see some work on XDA about such an emulator which impressed me, but the performance cost and probable power cost might be an issue.
I think the advent of Intel's Clover Trail should've changed the game though.

And at this point I realize I dont have as much counterpoints as I thought I did.

I do want to say that Google didn't really do much to support the manufacturers when they faced legal stuff from, was it Oracle? etc. I'm willing to bet they would refuse to play ball and let the manufacturer's hold the bag to spite Windows.
 

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