(Deja Vu) Palm all over again?

[mariusmuntean]

Mobile already peaked. The top apps has been the same since many years. Every interesting use case of the form factor is already implemented. What else can you do with a phone or a tablet?
The decline of sales is a consequence of the lack of innovation. Phones and tablets are boring, a new device provide the same experience just a bit faster. Mobile is the past, the future is new platform.

Mobile users aren't a bunch of geeks using every possible app. It's a very heterogeneous group of people with different needs. Windows doesn't need to appeal to all of them, Microsoft has to find a niche and grow from there.
The Surface Phone would target primarily the enterprise market as a replacement of phones issued by companies and desktop PCs. That's a very lucrative niche.

If Win10 will be the same buggy mess I wonder which company would risk it's finances and productivity by buying a device with a beta half baked OS...

 

[tweet2nowhere]

I have been trying out Android for the last week.
The customization is great. Reminds me of MySpace.
I've wasted countless hours with dialers, messaging, launchers.
WPneeds to survive.

 

[David Parody]

I honestly cant figure out why WM10 and the 950XL are getting such a bad rap. I love both! The apps are great and selection is really about quality rather than quantity. An OS that is stable, intuitive and allows me to get my work done... oh, and make/receive phone calls...let's not forget that!

I think MS have done a wonderful job and I can't fathom why their sales haven't rocketed as they deserve that they do. Perhaps better marketing would help as word of mouth is not enough where there isn't a huge install base there already to spread the word?

 

[Ten Four]

It has been and will always be a lack of popular apps that dooms WP. Period.
What part of that equation can't people understand?

I think it's not so much the lack of "popular" apps as it is the lack of universal app availability for all the small things that together add up to incredibly important things for people: the local bank app, the specialty productivity app that you need for work, the train or plane app, the phone service app, etc. etc. What is driving me away were instances of apps I needed for work in the last few months: a specific expense app needed when traveling for the company, a special authenticator app needed for internal systems, and specific apps used when traveling that are incredibly useful. After spending hours doing my expenses using a workaround I realized that I should at least try the other side, so I am currently using an Android phone and learning the good and bad of the system. An iPhone would bring me even more into the mainstream since they appear to represent at least 75% of the phones used in business--at my company I would guess 85%+. When someone says anything about phones at work they assume you are using an iPhone. When I look at stats as to what our customers use--iPhone. When I look at stats on what their customers are using--iPhone. So, it doesn't really matter what you prefer if you want to be in the mainstream in business you should use an iPhone, or you can act a bit geeky and probably survive with an Android phone (mostly seen in the IT department at work).

 

[Kevin Hill2]

Yes, Windows phone is failing, But Windows mobile is not, not by a long shot, Microsoft has slowly been integrating itself into the other platforms, with the right App's you can turn an Android or i-phone into a Windows phone. Windows phone will die, but be reborn as the Surface phone running Windows 10 mobile.How much Microsoft do you have on your Android or Apple device? and now Chances are your Key board to. Microsoft has not lost this race, it is just slowly taking over the other runners.

 

[Ten Four]

How much Microsoft do you have on your Android or Apple device?

About the only MS app I have found useful so far on Android is the Outlook app, which did integrate easily and well with our work Outlook email and calendar system. I will probably install Skype for Business soon, because that is becoming the default messaging app for work. It is way too cumbersome to do anything with Office docs of any type on a phone, so I just occasionally read these on my phone. My main line of work requires logging into certain systems through a VPN and it is just not workable on any phone (requires special hardware and software), so my main use is for communication purposes.

 

[a5cent]

Android got nexus devices to do the testing, not seeing much were sacrificed because of the non-standard hardwares on the field. This long and painful(?) insider program is special to WP/WM only due to their slow pace of development. Do we really need give anyone access to insider if MSFT can develop their OS fast enough and release RTM to everyone?

The ability to do something like the insider preview is just one example of at least half a dozen things that MS could no longer do if they decided your priorities were more important. I understand that you're not exactly enthusiastic about the insider preview program. I can see your point and I'm not convinced of its usefulness either. However, I do think the ability to deliver updates directly (for the most part without OEM or carrier intervention), is a capability MS simply can't afford to sacrifice for a single W10M device. Particularly not for two capabilities that wouldn't excite a single OEM in the world and only few customers.

Even if MS stopped selling W10M devices immediately, there would still not exist a market large enough to justify the expenses involved in modifying W10M's UI or adapting the OS to alternative hardware. Worst of all, if some rogue OEM decided to flush economic principles down the toilette and do so anyway, you'd never see that device get a single update and MS couldn't do anything about it (no insider preview, no direct OS updates, nothing).

MS just finished version 1.0 of the first OS that would grant them the ability to update all devices of all OEMs directly. Sacrificing that huge capability now, for two others that very few care about, would IMHO be rather ironic.

 

[constantreader16]

Unfortunately, with 1 billion + mobile users today already getting along fine without Windows x86 applications on their phones if that's the new savior's only party trick then its not going to make any kind of "boom", let alone a big one.

I think this is where most people don't get the whole "mobile is the future" thing. Mobile today is all about people doing more and more on their phones and tablets alone and moving away from the desktop paradigm, and that is only going to become more pervasive going forward as these devices get more and more powerful and capable of more advanced tasks. Compared to this being able to run desktop programs from your phone isn't going to be the silver bullet for Microsoft as all it does is basically replicate the declining desktop paradigm into a more portable form factor so you are still tied to a desk, just in a different location but that still doesn't bring any of the new mobile experiences to the platform. In other words, all it does is offer more of the same that people are moving away from.

So the "surface phone" will appeal to some but the majority will ignore it as it doesn't meet the needs of todays mobile user. If that's what people are pinning their hopes on I can see them being disappointed once again.

You just said mobile is going to be all about being able to do more and more on mobile, then followed it up by saying that allowing x86 apps (which will instantly allow you to do a lot more on your phone) won't save Windows Mobile. Allowing x86 programs suddenly takes away any additional development because if it works on a desktop, it works on a phone. Most software companies that working professionals use for actual work have no mobile app or they are absolutely terrible, this could make a huge difference when it comes to that market.

 

[theefman]

Mobile already peaked. The top apps has been the same since many years. Every interesting use case of the form factor is already implemented. What else can you do with a phone or a tablet?
The decline of sales is a consequence of the lack of innovation. Phones and tablets are boring, a new device provide the same experience just a bit faster. Mobile is the past, the future is new platform.

Mobile users aren't a bunch of geeks using every possible app. It's a very heterogeneous group of people with different needs. Windows doesn't need to appeal to all of them, Microsoft has to find a niche and grow from there.
The Surface Phone would target primarily the enterprise market as a replacement of phones issued by companies and desktop PCs. That's a very lucrative niche.

The point is not about specific apps or the form factor, its the fact that future innovations, interactions, scenarios are going to be in the mobile space, not at a desktop with a keyboard and mouse. Every interesting use case of the form factor is already implemented? Maybe the form factor itself but the use cases they will enable going forward will be limited only by technology and people's imagination. But the reality of today is that the desktop is not the driving force of innovation, phones and tablets and the apps that run on them are.

You say mobile is the past, the future is the "new platform". Yes, most likely the way we regard mobile now as just tablets and phones will change into something along the lines of devices like hololens but isn't such a device mobile in nature? That's the whole point, the future of mobile is undefined and unknown but when people think about it they're not thinking of sitting at a desk with a keyboard and mouse. That stands in stark contrast to what the "surface phone" offers, just a way to mimic a desktop and that is the point being made about the surface phone not being a product that will really have as much of an impact or mass appeal as it is being made out to be.

You just said mobile is going to be all about being able to do more and more on mobile, then followed it up by saying that allowing x86 apps (which will instantly allow you to do a lot more on your phone) won't save Windows Mobile. Allowing x86 programs suddenly takes away any additional development because if it works on a desktop, it works on a phone. Most software companies that working professionals use for actual work have no mobile app or they are absolutely terrible, this could make a huge difference when it comes to that market.

And how are you going to access those programs when you're not sitting at a desk?

 

[DarthVedder]

It has been and will always be a lack of popular apps that dooms WP. Period.
What part of that equation can't people understand?

At the current stage, I don't think even the current popular apps would save the platform. We could get Snapchat and whichever popular apps that are available today, and at most they would prevent some people from jumping ship, but I don't see how they could convince anyone to leave iOS or Android. Why would an iOS user migrate to WM only to be able to do exactly the same he already does just fine on his/her iPhone.

WM needs the apps AND a killer exclusive app or feature that would make the platform attractive. Something like a full implementation of continuum with support for Win32 apps might be that killer feature for several enterprise users.

 

[a5cent]

^
Have a cookie! I very much doubt Win32 capability is a killer feature (not even for the enterprise), but otherwise... yup, you get it!

Apps can't save W10M anymore either. They are at best a requirement to continue participating in the smartphone race. At this point, saving W10M requires something much bigger than app parity.

 

[constantreader16]

And how are you going to access those programs when you're not sitting at a desk?

On the phone. If you have x86 compatibility built into Windows 10 mobile I highly doubt the apps would only work in a certain environment. Opening up x86 compatibility just opens up a new avenue for which apps to be made for mobile. It also should help with overall integration of all applications into the Windows Store.

 

[a5cent]

^ Definately not happening.

That suggestion implies that MS would create a second (alternative but incompatible) UWP. Far easier for everyone (MS, customers, 3rd party developers), to just use the UWP that already exists.

 

[Spectrum90]

The point is not about specific apps or the form factor, its the fact that future innovations, interactions, scenarios are going to be in the mobile space, not at a desktop with a keyboard and mouse. Every interesting use case of the form factor is already implemented? Maybe the form factor itself but the use cases they will enable going forward will be limited only by technology and people's imagination. But the reality of today is that the desktop is not the driving force of innovation, phones and tablets and the apps that run on them are.

You say mobile is the past, the future is the "new platform". Yes, most likely the way we regard mobile now as just tablets and phones will change into something along the lines of devices like hololens but isn't such a device mobile in nature? That's the whole point, the future of mobile is undefined and unknown but when people think about it they're not thinking of sitting at a desk with a keyboard and mouse. That stands in stark contrast to what the "surface phone" offers, just a way to mimic a desktop and that is the point being made about the surface phone not being a product that will really have as much of an impact or mass appeal as it is being made out to be.

AR and VR are completely new platforms. In that context, touch apps are as legacy as desktop apps.
At the end, we have different options of human interfaces to access computing services. The best interface depends on the task at hand and the circumstance.

...
I'm not seeing much innovation in phones or tablets. Mobile and desktop are mature platforms.
In fact, the Surface Pro is the most interesting tablet because it incorporates desktop features that are needed by the users. The whole industry is copying the design.

The Surface Phone will be the most interesting device too. Google is already developing a similar converged story for Android and probably Apple will follow too. Because PCs are just so good for many tasks, we need that kind of experience, and phones are powerful enough to provide it.

 

[mariusmuntean]

Just having x86 apps on a phone won't do magic for WinMobile. I do not see any user switching to winmobile because of the x86 apps, I know I wouldn't. WinMobile needs something unique that can attract users besides the x86 support. I am using MS services and apps on other platform and work better than on WM. Even apps look better and have better support from MS than those on WM.

 

[Tien-Lin Chang]

The ability to do something like the insider preview is just one example of at least half a dozen things that MS could no longer do if they decided your priorities were more important. I understand that you're not exactly enthusiastic about the insider preview program. I can see your point and I'm not convinced of its usefulness either. However, I do think the ability to deliver updates directly (for the most part without OEM or carrier intervention), is a capability MS simply can't afford to sacrifice for a single W10M device. Particularly not for two capabilities that wouldn't excite a single OEM in the world and only few customers.

Even if MS stopped selling W10M devices immediately, there would still not exist a market large enough to justify the expenses involved in modifying W10M's UI or adapting the OS to alternative hardware. Worst of all, if some rogue OEM decided to flush economic principles down the toilette and do so anyway, you'd never see that device get a single update and MS couldn't do anything about it (no insider preview, no direct OS updates, nothing).

MS just finished version 1.0 of the first OS that would grant them the ability to update all devices of all OEMs directly. Sacrificing that huge capability now, for two others that very few care about, would IMHO be rather ironic.

Actually I'm running insider since 10536 leak on my ATIV S and all the way up to 10586.71 now and I'm happy to get UWP support that even my phone stay in fast ring after RTM still it will have the ability to access all apps in the market that make possible for this device to stay alive for longer time. But this is unrelated to how this limitation hurting OEM in making feature-packed devices to stand-out from first-party devices(I feel that's part of the reason HTC/Samsung quit the market). This two point of view are different and can be discussed separately.

 

[a5cent]

But this is unrelated to how this limitation hurting OEM in making feature-packed devices to stand-out from first-party devices(I feel that's part of the reason HTC/Samsung quit the market). This two point of view are different and can be discussed separately.

I'm not sure I understand exactly what you think should be discussed separately. We're discussing two capabilities:

a) Microsoft's technical capability to distribute insider preview updates to every W10M device (no matter which OEM built the device)
b) Microsoft's technical capability to distribute official updates to every W10M device, largely without interference by carriers (no matter which OEM build the device)

both of those capabilities absolutely necessitate a standardized hardware and software platform, i.e. one where OEMs aren't capable of willy-nilly modifying the code base and rebuilding their own device-specific version of W10M. As soon as an OEM introduces such OS customizations, MS looses the ability to update those devices directly, because MS' OS update packages don't contain the device specific customizations the OEM made.

Either way, I can assure you that allowing OEMs such "freedoms" now would change absolutely nothing. Not a single OEM would re-enter the WM market, much less engage in such expensive development/customization efforts. Neither HTC nor Samsung quit WP/WM for this reason either. Both companies quit the market because they simply couldn't sell enough devices to make it worthwhile. If OEMs can sell enough devices to make it worthwhile, they won't pass up the opportunity to make more money, and will re-enter the market, with or without such "freedoms".

In fact, at this point in the game, the exact opposite is true. Giving OEMs an OS they can install onto their phones (in the same way you can install Windows onto a white-box PC), along with a few pre-built drivers for standard off-the-shelf hardware (like camera modules, etc.), is the only shot WP/WM has with other OEMs. The cheaper it is to build a W10M device the better, although currently it doesn't matter either way. Even if it cost OEMs only $1 to build a W10M device, it's still a bad deal if OEMs can't sell it... currently.... they can't.

 

[Ten Four]

Here's the thing about "mobile" that makes it different than other computing platforms. The fact that it is mobile is because humans move around in the world by our nature and for a long time we were unable to bring along computing as part of that natural movement. Continuum is anti-mobile. It tries to turn a mobile device into a desktop device, which is never going to be a huge, mainstream feature. Yes, there are some people who would die to have Continuum, but 95% or more of the mobile public wants "mobility." They don't care about being tied down with wires, adaptors, desks, keyboards, monitors. And on the other end of the spectrum, the largely office-bound, computer-using workforce needs and demands full-size monitors, keyboards, mice, etc. If a company already has all that stuff at every workstation it makes no sense to come up with some scheme that allows people to instead carry around their phones with all of their important and highly sensitive business information onboard. And, in any case, when that worker gets to their desk they still need the monitors, keyboards, mice, cords, etc. Today's desktops and laptops are pretty small and powerful and will continue to outperform any phone just due to available space for storage, ports, screen size, etc. In short, Continuum is cool, but it is a niche. If it starts to look like it might become popular enough why wouldn't Apple jump in and dominate the space?

 

[MikeSo]

After switching to Android and using all of MS services on it (except in the Google Play store, natch), I'm thinking that Microsoft should currently concentrate efforts on making an awesome Android + Windows 10 integration, with more development effort in things like their Picturesque (lock screen) apps etc (and for my own selfish reasons as a Groove Music subscriber, I want a decent Groove app on Android!). I remember reading they were funding Cyanogen a while back, maybe that really is the way to go in order to maintain a mobile presence until Windows 10 Mobile is where they need it to be.

If you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

 

[MikeSo]

Just having x86 apps on a phone won't do magic for WinMobile. I do not see any user switching to winmobile because of the x86 apps, I know I wouldn't. WinMobile needs something unique that can attract users besides the x86 support. I am using MS services and apps on other platform and work better than on WM. Even apps look better and have better support from MS than those on WM.

I'm with you. Try using an x86 on your phone through Remote Desktop - I do sometimes when I absolutely need to, and it's NOT fun. Legacy x86 apps would be awful on the phone, and new apps could (in most cases) just as well be created as new Universal apps.

Instead of dreaming of x86, Windows Phone should go back to its roots - a non-app dependent, browser-based "client". I believe WP was ahead of its time in WP7, and looking at how Android has developed with Google Now, and where Cortana is currently, I believe it is the future of mobile computing. Microsoft is on the right track with Windows 10 Mobile, and some apps will always be needed, but so much can now be done with the new web standards that Edge is the key to Microsoft's success. Here's a nice column from ZDNET about it:

Why Windows Phone isn't dead to me

"If Microsoft has enough patience to stick with it, Windows Phone could be a much more successful platform within a few years. The future is the mobile web."