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02-24-2016 05:30 PM
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  1. jdballard's Avatar
    It's interesting that both him and Daniel are saying similar things.
    I thought the same thing: that on the same day they both publish articles with the same theme. Makes me think that someone at MS reached out (at least unofficially) to tell them the direction.

    Thurrott, Rubino, Warren, Foley are just awful. The good analysts and reporters are following Apple or Google.

    Well, Chris Capossella from MS was on Windows Weekly the week between Christmas and New Years and made the comment that he's amazed at how often Paul Thurrott and Mary Jo Foley are correct not only in what they're reporting (things that MS hasn't officially announced) but their analysis as well. So unless he's sucking up to them, which he doesn't have to do, I would disagree.

    Side note: apparently Chris Capossella is a regular listener of windows weekly.
    Last edited by xandros9; 02-17-2016 at 02:05 PM.
    libra89 and Player Piano like this.
    02-16-2016 04:43 PM
  2. Mad Cabbie's Avatar
    I read Scrubbyxd's well thought out post, and as a 'former' Samsung user I am pleased the world has stood up and cornered Samsung. My note 3 was left behind before the warranty had expired! Updates? What updates? Got an Ace 3 in the drawer. Lte etc, but stuck on 4.2.2 which can restrict certain Bluetooth accessories.

    I also take issue with the whole Google Android 'open source' claim. It is becoming far from open source. HTC started it with s-off and Samsung locked it right down with Knox.

    Anyways, as said by scrubby, let's hope the Qualcomm issue can be resolved and then unleash the beast.
    HeyCori and a5cent like this.
    02-16-2016 05:10 PM
  3. Jean Claude Lopez's Avatar
    I don't understand why he writes about Microsoft.
    02-16-2016 08:07 PM
  4. Jack Neill's Avatar
    My magic 8 ball broke years ago, but I want the platform to succeed. Yes, its been a crappy ride, but I don't really want a future with Google and Apple as the only choices. I hope it makes it, even if it is just a minor player. Keep hope alive!!
    02-16-2016 09:53 PM
  5. Johnny Tremaine's Avatar
    There's an argument to be made that Windows Phone was never really alive. In 2013, when Nokia sold a record 9 million Lumias in a quarter, Android was activating over one million devices A DAY! Does that sound alive to anyone? The gap between the Xbox One and PS4 isn't even that bad. So even when Windows Phone was doing "good" it was still getting absolutely destroyed.

    True, sales were on a very small uptick during the Ballmer era.
    Also true, sales were still embarrassingly bad under the Ballmer era.

    The way the current demise of Windows Phone is framed is as though this use to be a legitimate three horse race until Nadella purposely kneecapped its own product. Selling less than 1/10 of your competitor isn't a race. You've already lost.

    And let's not forget that Nokia was hemorrhaging money for most of their Windows Phone venture. Windows Phone wasn't selling enough and it was losing massive amounts of money. Nadella didn't kill Windows Phone. He was handed a zombie OS. This idea that Windows Phone was doing fine until Nadella arrived is a myth.

    I understand, selling 9 million in a quarter is better than the 4.5 million Microsoft sold last quarter. Neither is good, though. Both are laughable when compared to the competition. A shift in strategy was absolutely necessary.

    We could argue all day about what that strategy should be, but we must stop this misconception that selling less than 1/10 your competitor and losing hundreds of millions of dollars every quarter was sustainable.
    Well said, and spot on.
    HeyCori likes this.
    02-16-2016 10:28 PM
  6. Johnny Tremaine's Avatar
    but I don't really want a future with Google and Apple as the only choices.
    That future is now. By definition once marketshare (of largely low end phone devices; buyers of such devices for the most part, don't use mobile apps much) dropped down to 1-2%, going backwards, the game was over for Microsoft's mobile OS ambitions.
    02-16-2016 10:32 PM
  7. sumton's Avatar
    What's the difference?

    The title of his article is "A Way Forward For Windows Phone". (Not Windows mobile)

    "Microsoft is keeping the Windows phone platform that I care about alive and is delivering new handsets.". (Windows Phone, not mobile)

    Sent from my Surface 3
    ( Yes, Windows phones will limp along in the retail market for all the same reasons as before: There are no apps, few carriers promote these devices over iPhone or Android, and Microsoft’s “narrowed focus” results in less availability and visibility for the only Windows phones that were selling in any appreciable numbers. In this sense, Windows phone is what I said it was, a “zombie” platform. Not quite dead. But not quite alive either.

    But Windows 10 Mobile, the new OS at the heart of these Windows phones, continues forward too because it is just another SKU, or product version, of Windows 10. It is the version of Windows 10 aimed at ARM-based phones, phablets, and mini-tablets, but there’s no reason to think that it couldn’t be used in other device types too. Asking whether Windows 10 Mobile is “dead” or “unsuccessful” is like asking the same of Windows 10 Home or Enterprise. It’s just another Windows 10 version.)

    anyway im not going to waste time defending him
    02-17-2016 01:25 AM
  8. Nogitsune Micah's Avatar
    . To switch to a different company, and build up trusted contacts would take a long time. And then, when Google would start to falter, should they switch to whatever the new dominant platform would be? It would be a constant chase. That is why for better or worse, these reporters will probably continue to follow Microsoft.
    Isn't Paul on iOS now though? Lmao or is that tom? I get them all so confused.
    02-17-2016 01:34 AM
  9. TechAbstract's Avatar
    It's pretty clear that Microsoft is moving to make money or at least break even on the current x50 line. Thus bringing it's phone offerings in-line with it's other hardware offerings as "model" type devices for their software. With the end game encouraging OEMs to make the hardware and Microsoft licensing Windows software as they have traditionally done.

    I have said for a long time, and I still believe, that the Qualcomm deal was a major reason mobile efforts failed. Google simply out "open"ed Microsoft by being both usable on any hardware and being open source. So despite Windows Phone being free or nearly it's still hobbled by the Qualcomm SoC requirement. This makes phones with windows still more expensive to produce in a world of very low margin phones.

    So is "Windows Phone" dead because it has to be? If the mobile SKU of W10 is simply that, another SKU of windows 10, does the Qualcomm deal apply? Probably not. If this is true then the mobile version can now have any chip including x86/x64.

    Now the value proposition changes. As an OEM I could now release a mobile device that is not just another android clone. I can use an expanding (see articles lately of who Microsoft is looking to hire) array of hardware, that will be updated by someone else (see articles on Samsung and others being sued because they do not update phones under two years) for years to come. This last point is very important because at these low margins OEMs cannot afford to support the lower end phones for the time it looks like they will soon be (by law) required. This is the same model as Windows PCs that they are used to and enjoy. As a cherry on top Microsoft is no longer trying to undercut them.

    Could these devices be profitable? Yes!

    Don't fool yourself on the "App-gap". If these mobile devices start being offered on a larger scale and are sold, those Universal apps will come. Software designers are many things but stupid isn't one of them (in most cases).

    I'm not saying ANYTHING is going to be saved but I am saying Windows on your phone has a legitimate chance. Time will tell.
    Totally agree. Microsoft needs to do everything they can to get the OEMs on board. You can't get market share without having devices to sell and no marketing.
    HeyCori likes this.
    02-17-2016 02:00 AM
  10. loribinca's Avatar
    IMHO "Windows Mobile" or whatever the heck they're calling it has a very long way to go before it becomes relevant.

    No NFC payments, and I'm still not convinced that the "App Gap" will ever close ..

    I'm taking a break from it and am back swimming in the IOS pool, Sure the home screen is not as functional as WP 8.1 and it takes a little longer to get to stuff, but overall the pro's outweigh the cons for me.

    Coupled with the Apple watch - say what you like about it, but the fact that you can customize the heck out of it with 3rd party straps really makes it look more classy than the band/band2 - and I'm a pretty happy camper at the moment.

    The only MS product I use now is my Surface Pro 3
    02-17-2016 12:08 PM
  11. Nogitsune Micah's Avatar
    IMHO "Windows Mobile" or whatever the heck they're calling it has a very long way to go before it becomes relevant.

    No NFC payments, and I'm still not convinced that the "App Gap" will ever close ..

    I'm taking a break from it and am back swimming in the IOS pool, Sure the home screen is not as functional as WP 8.1 and it takes a little longer to get to stuff, but overall the pro's outweigh the cons for me.

    Coupled with the Apple watch - say what you like about it, but the fact that you can customize the heck out of it with 3rd party straps really makes it look more classy than the band/band2 - and I'm a pretty happy camper at the moment.

    The only MS product I use now is my Surface Pro 3
    How exactly can you compare an Apple watch compared to a band? Don't they target two completely demographics? Especially since the Apple watch is made specifically FOR APPLE products vs the band which I do believe is agnostic. So having nifty 3rd party straps seems like a trendy fashion statement vs overall use and actual you know....relevance for the core product. Then again, owning an iPhone is a trendy fashion statement for many, so I digress.
    02-18-2016 02:56 AM
  12. Nogitsune Micah's Avatar
    Goodness, typos galore....typed on the outdated WC app :P

    We should also get rid of this misconception that because Microsoft is not selling as much or anywhere near their competitors that the product is an outright failure. I never did understand this mentality that Product A/Person A isn't doing as well as the next guy so because that criteria, that means it/they suck.

    Windows Phone success isn't contingent on IOS/Android but itself. If I am not mistaken, do feel free to correct me if I am wrong. but Android is the most popular mobile OS, yes? It is defintiely being sold more and activated at a higher rate than the other mobile OS. That does not detract from Apple's success with their own products (Which seems to set new sales records for Apple with each release). So why is WIndows Phone sales (paltry as they may be in comparison) being held to some double-standard to try and prove it is failures.

    Windows PC far outsell macs and yet if I am not mistaken Apple STILL has success within their mac products and unlike many OEMs, Apple does make a profit (Again if I am not mistaken) on their product with their pathetic marketshare.

    Point is, this double-standard with Windows Phone is more annoying than anything. When I look at Microsoft's success and failures, I look at its origin points from 2010...where it peaked...and where it fell dramatically and that is how i measure the platform's success or failure. Because common sense, would say that Microsoft has never been able to match Android/Apple so why exactly are we using their sales in comparison to dictate whether the product is successful or not.

    This change in strategy likely will not have an effect...because essentially this strategy is what Windows Phone 7 launched with. Relying on OEMs which in turn did nothing for WP...Ironically abandoning their Windows Phone 8 mentality(And the Lumia strategy) during Nokia's reign is seemingly what appears to be killing Windows Phone. Since this change in strategy, not only are people irate with the OS but they are now rebelling against hardware as well in favor of abandoning the platform altogether. Coupled with Microsoft lack of releases and now trying to push OEMs(Again, when most don't want OEM phones), Microsoft's failures are and should be dictated by their own actions...not in comparison to how much Apple/Google sell their products.
    There's an argument to be made that Windows Phone was never really alive. In 2013, when Nokia sold a record 9 million Lumias in a quarter, Android was activating over one million devices A DAY! Does that sound alive to anyone? The gap between the Xbox One and PS4 isn't even that bad. So even when Windows Phone was doing "good" it was still getting absolutely destroyed.

    True, sales were on a very small uptick during the Ballmer era.
    Also true, sales were still embarrassingly bad during the Ballmer era.

    The way the current demise of Windows Phone is framed is as though this was a legitimate three horse race until Nadella purposely kneecapped its own product. Selling less than 1/10 of your competitor isn't a race. You've already lost.

    And let's not forget that Nokia was hemorrhaging money for most of their Windows Phone venture. So Windows Phone wasn't selling enough and it was losing massive amounts of money. Nadella didn't kill Windows Phone. He was handed a zombie OS. This idea that Windows Phone was doing fine until Nadella arrived is a myth.

    I understand, selling 9 million in a quarter is better than the 4.5 million Microsoft sold last quarter. Neither is good, though. Both are laughable when compared to the competition. A shift in strategy was absolutely necessary.

    We could argue all day about what that strategy should be, but we must stop this misconception that selling less than 1/10 your competitor and losing hundreds of millions of dollars every quarter was sustainable.
    Last edited by Nogitsune Micah; 02-19-2016 at 02:48 AM. Reason: Goodness, typos galore....typed on the outdated WC app :P
    jmshub, HeyCori, loribinca and 1 others like this.
    02-18-2016 03:09 AM
  13. jdballard's Avatar
    (Again, when most dont want OEM phones)
    I would say it is (and was) the lame, second-rate OEM hardware, but there's no real way to tell. The closest to a non-Nokia/MS flagship I can think of is the HTC One M8. I had one and would have kept it a lot longer than I did except that camera was awful. But even if Samsung put Windows on one of their flagships, without the apps would it sell any better? These days, probably not, but back in the day? Maybe.

    We may never know what might have been if there had been some really nice hardware on Windows phone then. Just a little more momentum earlier could have made a difference. I am really curious to see what hardware comes out of MWC. There are a few leaks already and supposedly some other big things coming. But even if it is amazing hardware it's probably too little too late.
    02-18-2016 01:39 PM
  14. anon(6078578)'s Avatar
    I would say it is (and was) the lame, second-rate OEM hardware, but there's no real way to tell. The closest to a non-Nokia/MS flagship I can think of is the HTC One M8. I had one and would have kept it a lot longer than I did except that camera was awful. But even if Samsung put Windows on one of their flagships, without the apps would it sell any better? These days, probably not, but back in the day? Maybe.

    We may never know what might have been if there had been some really nice hardware on Windows phone then. Just a little more momentum earlier could have made a difference. I am really curious to see what hardware comes out of MWC. There are a few leaks already and supposedly some other big things coming. But even if it is amazing hardware it's probably too little too late.
    That's the problem, Microsoft always seemed to have this "word of mouth" attitude to the sale of Windows Phone. They never really did much of a push in advertising. When I got the Nokia 521 it looked like things were finally on the up. In fact that was why I joined. If I hadn't been a technology enthusiast always reading up about technology I am not sure I would've even noticed the Nokia 521. Then shortly afterwards it started going downhill.
    libra89 likes this.
    02-18-2016 01:54 PM
  15. Nogitsune Micah's Avatar
    I would say it is (and was) the lame, second-rate OEM hardware, but there's no real way to tell. The closest to a non-Nokia/MS flagship I can think of is the HTC One M8. I had one and would have kept it a lot longer than I did except that camera was awful. But even if Samsung put Windows on one of their flagships, without the apps would it sell any better? These days, probably not, but back in the day? Maybe.

    We may never know what might have been if there had been some really nice hardware on Windows phone then. Just a little more momentum earlier could have made a difference. I am really curious to see what hardware comes out of MWC. There are a few leaks already and supposedly some other big things coming. But even if it is amazing hardware it's probably too little too late.
    This is one thing I never understood. People think an influx of OEMs will change things and seem to think Microsoft lessening devices in favor of of oem support will change things but still the os is stable for all and the app situation is better, you will just have a bunch of nice hardware that still isn't selling.

    I'm hoping for a secret Microsoft release at mwc haha
    02-18-2016 03:01 PM
  16. jdballard's Avatar
    This is one thing I never understood. People think an influx of OEMs will change things and seem to think Microsoft lessening devices in favor of of oem support will change things but still the os is stable for all and the app situation is better, you will just have a bunch of nice hardware that still isn't selling.
    I think it might have made a difference when Windows phone was new, but nowadays everyone knows "it's missing apps" and no one wants to join the Windows Phone 1%. Too little, too late. I would love to know what MS has done to get people building WP hardware again. Seems like quite a rush of new OEMS such as Alcatel, HP, etc. What do they know that we don't? Or is MS just really good at selling the future?

    I'm hoping for a secret Microsoft release at mwc haha
    I'm guessing that won't happen. Someone somewhere theorized that they announced the 650 when they did to let the OEMs have the spotlight at MWC.
    libra89 likes this.
    02-18-2016 03:33 PM
  17. constantreader16's Avatar
    This is one thing I never understood. People think an influx of OEMs will change things and seem to think Microsoft lessening devices in favor of of oem support will change things but still the os is stable for all and the app situation is better, you will just have a bunch of nice hardware that still isn't selling.

    I'm hoping for a secret Microsoft release at mwc haha
    I think there is some legitimate genius behind this strategy. Think of Samsung releasing a Windows Phone for a second. They would use their advertising dollars, their sales staff, their brand recognition to push a Microsoft product. Imagine going to a store and being approached by a Samsung and a Microsoft rep, who are you going to listen to? Likely Samsung.

    On top of that, getting Samsung, HP, LG, and others behind Windows Phone gives more legitimacy to the OS which could give a boost to attractiveness for developers.

    It's not a guaranteed success, but it is a different approach that could actually make a difference. More so than it could've a few years ago.
    Guytronic likes this.
    02-18-2016 04:07 PM
  18. jdballard's Avatar
    I think there is some legitimate genius behind this strategy. Think of Samsung releasing a Windows Phone for a second.
    Samsung did release a Windows phone before - the Ativ SE. Didn't catch on - probably because the WP share was tanking, it wasn't a full flagship phone, and the app gap (which was bad then and worse now). Plus, it was on Verizon and of all the major carriers they are the least likely to actually try & sell a WP. Plus, it didn't have and couldn't get some of the Nokia exclusive apps which were always nice and added value.

    They would use their advertising dollars, their sales staff, their brand recognition to push a Microsoft product. Imagine going to a store and being approached by a Samsung and a Microsoft rep, who are you going to listen to? Likely Samsung.
    Samsung has a name, but the app gap will always come up.

    On top of that, getting Samsung, HP, LG, and others behind Windows Phone gives more legitimacy to the OS which could give a boost to attractiveness for developers. It's not a guaranteed success, but it is a different approach that could actually make a difference. More so than it could've a few years ago.
    If definitely would help to have all those OEMs behind Windows Phone, but I think it would have been more helpful in past years, before the app gap was as big as it is now.

    Don't get me wrong, I wish this platform got the attention it deserves because it really is great. If the app gap closed, you could probably get sales people to recommend it.
    a5cent and Nogitsune Micah like this.
    02-18-2016 06:06 PM
  19. a5cent's Avatar
    I think there is some legitimate genius behind this strategy. Think of Samsung releasing a Windows Phone for a second. They would use their advertising dollars, their sales staff, their brand recognition to push a Microsoft product. Imagine going to a store and being approached by a Samsung and a Microsoft rep, who are you going to listen to? Likely Samsung.

    On top of that, getting Samsung, HP, LG, and others behind Windows Phone gives more legitimacy to the OS which could give a boost to attractiveness for developers.

    It's not a guaranteed success, but it is a different approach that could actually make a difference. More so than it could've a few years ago.
    I think pretty much none of those assumptions are correct.

    jdballard already mentioned that Samsung's image wasn't worth much in the WP ecosystem. Neither was HTC's.

    In the past, both Samsung and HTC built WP devices only after MS agreed to fund their advertising campaigns. That won't change. No OEM will spend marketing dollars on WM devices that have absolutely no chance of earning that money back, nor will MS be marketing WM themselves anytime soon. I agree that OEM's marketing dollars are the biggest potential benefit this approach has to offer. However, as long as WM's market position doesn't change first, I just see absolutely no chance of those marketing dollars ever being spent.

    As far as I'm concerned this is just another example of MS attacking this problem from the wrong end.

    WM's problem isn't hardware related. Hardware is the only thing OEMs bring to the table however. WM's problems are ecosystem, app, and OS related. OEMs can't do anything for WM in any of those areas.
    Last edited by a5cent; 02-20-2016 at 08:17 AM. Reason: spelling
    02-18-2016 07:03 PM
  20. Cosmyc's Avatar
    I think there is some legitimate genius behind this strategy. Think of Samsung releasing a Windows Phone for a second. They would use their advertising dollars, their sales staff, their brand recognition to push a Microsoft product. Imagine going to a store and being approached by a Samsung and a Microsoft rep, who are you going to listen to? Likely Samsung.

    On top of that, getting Samsung, HP, LG, and others behind Windows Phone gives more legitimacy to the OS which could give a boost to attractiveness for developers.

    It's not a guaranteed success, but it is a different approach that could actually make a difference. More so than it could've a few years ago.
    I'm with you, let's see if Nadella isn't wrong...
    02-18-2016 07:14 PM
  21. Nogitsune Micah's Avatar
    Considring the majority want Lumias....Samsug galaxy or whatever android turned iwndows phone model is not going to fix the issue.

    Samsung can release their latest and grreatest. The phone could litetrally print money, get guys laid and make girls look like super models with the pics....if the OS is not up to snuff and it contineus to lack apps why would someone buy the phone regardless if it is a Galaxy branded device or not?

    as soon as they buy the phoen and discover the phone lacks an updated Kik app, a snapchat app and whatever stupid app is the latest craze of the day, then it'll be the same thing it has been.

    Microsoft needs to figure a way to at least FIX the OS and their own image within mobile...that's the issue they need to work on and get Islandwood or whatever it is called up to par...I dont want astoria but if they must, at least get that ready. But until the app situation si fixed, most people wont buy a Samsung Galaxy Windows just because it is a galaxy.

    I think there is some legitimate genius behind this strategy. Think of Samsung releasing a Windows Phone for a second. They would use their advertising dollars, their sales staff, their brand recognition to push a Microsoft product. Imagine going to a store and being approached by a Samsung and a Microsoft rep, who are you going to listen to? Likely Samsung.

    On top of that, getting Samsung, HP, LG, and others behind Windows Phone gives more legitimacy to the OS which could give a boost to attractiveness for developers.

    It's not a guaranteed success, but it is a different approach that could actually make a difference. More so than it could've a few years ago.
    02-18-2016 08:21 PM
  22. SeeVuPlay's Avatar
    Windows Weekly.... The Microsoft bashing show..... That's my take on that group
    02-19-2016 04:57 AM
  23. mjperry51's Avatar
    I think pretty much none of those assumptions are correct.
    WM's problem isn't hardware related. Hardware is the only thing OEMs bring to the table however. WM's problems are ecosystem, app, and OS related. OEMs can't do anything for WM in any of those areas.
    And consumer mindshare. . .
    a5cent likes this.
    02-19-2016 05:41 AM
  24. etphoto's Avatar
    Back to the topic of the thread . . . I listened to Windows Weekly this week, one week after the doom and gloom of Windows phone two weeks ago, Leo, Mary Jo and Sams all admitted that, even though the market share will remain about the same, Microsoft will keep the mobile OS (phones) alive. If true, which I've always believed to be the case, all the "Windows Phone is dead" trolls that have predicting the demise of Windows Phone from the Treo 650 days to present where wrong then and still wrong today. Yeah, maybe someday they'll be correct and when that day comes their great grandchildren can brag on how foreseeing Great Grandpa was. :)

    Sent from my Surface 3
    Last edited by etphoto; 02-19-2016 at 07:16 AM.
    a5cent and Nogitsune Micah like this.
    02-19-2016 06:50 AM
  25. Krystianpants's Avatar
    Considring the majority want Lumias....Samsug galaxy or whatever android turned iwndows phone model is not going to fix the issue.

    Samsung can release their latest and grreatest. The phone could litetrally print money, get guys laid and make girls look like super models with the pics....if the OS is not up to snuff and it contineus to lack apps why would someone buy the phone regardless if it is a Galaxy branded device or not?

    as soon as they buy the phoen and discover the phone lacks an updated Kik app, a snapchat app and whatever stupid app is the latest craze of the day, then it'll be the same thing it has been.

    Microsoft needs to figure a way to at least FIX the OS and their own image within mobile...that's the issue they need to work on and get Islandwood or whatever it is called up to par...I dont want astoria but if they must, at least get that ready. But until the app situation si fixed, most people wont buy a Samsung Galaxy Windows just because it is a galaxy.
    What i wonder is if all these new phones will be sold along laptops, and 2-in-1's in pc section of say best buy rather than the phone section. Especially if launch provides more continuum apps. There seem to be more apps going this way. Maybe that's where the strategy will differ. So market share would grow in the 2-in-1 area. They could just market it differently. But the experience has to be more refined and allow for a lot of apps to support it. So developers would no longer see it as just phone share but windows 10 devices. Redstone build is already focusing on continuum with the build being tested. If they could test it bug free new phones could come with it. But it's hard to say what will happen.
    02-19-2016 07:02 AM
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